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XAUUSD Long Bias: Bullish Structure Respected Above Rising TrendOANDA:XAUUSD – Daily Smart Money Plan | H1 continues to update its historical ATH, currently testing zone OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is now trading in a late-stage bullish phase after a strong upside displacement and confirmed BOS. Today’s volatility is being fueled by a hot macro headline: Donald Trump signaling he has a preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, reigniting speculation around future rate direction and USD sensitivity. While this narrative supports short-term safe-haven demand, Smart Money behavior on H1 shows a different priority. Price is no longer accelerating. Instead, it is reacting around premium highs — a typical zone where liquidity is exchanged and positions are rebalanced, not where institutions aggressively chase headlines. Market Structure & Liquidity Context • Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish, but current H1 flow shows loss of momentum at extremes. • The prior impulsive rally created a clean expansion leg followed by CHoCH, signaling a shift from trend continuation into rotation. • A clear FVG + strong support zone below price marks the path of least resistance if premium fails. • Current trading is occurring near external buy-side liquidity around 4866–4868, a classic distribution area. • The market is transitioning from expansion into range-to-corrective behavior, driven by liquidity delivery. ➡ Headlines may attract participation, but levels decide outcomes. Key Trading Scenarios 🔴 Sell Reaction at Premium (Primary Scenario) 4866 – 4868 This zone aligns with: • External buy-side liquidity • Prior OB resistance • Overextended premium pricing Failure to hold above this area or weak acceptance suggests liquidity has been taken, opening a rotation toward value. 🟢 Buy Reaction at Discount (Contingency Scenario) 4755 – 4753 • Sell-side liquidity pool • Prior accumulation + structural support • Area for Smart Money re-entry if rotation completes Invalidation • Clean H1 acceptance and sustained hold above 4876 shifts bias back to continuation toward higher channel targets. Expectation & Bias This is not a breakout-chasing environment. • Liquidity precedes direction • Acceptance confirms continuation • Rejection favors rotation • Execution > opinion Let price reveal intent at the zones. Smart Money reacts to where price is, not what the news says. 💬 Do you expect premium acceptance after the Fed-chair headline — or another liquidity-driven rotation back to discount?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wendy_Grace
XAGUSD: downward correction🛠 Technical Analysis: Silver is consolidating right under a key resistance zone (~94.00–95.00) after a strong impulsive rally. The current structure looks like a topping wedge, which often precedes a corrective leg once buyers fail to push a clean breakout. With price extended above the faster MAs, a pullback toward the next demand area becomes more probable if we see rejection from resistance. Key downside magnet sits near the first major support around 83.20. ——————————————— ❗️ Trade Parameters (SELL) ——————————————— ➡️ Entry Point: 92.583 🎯 Take Profit: 83.205 🔴 Stop Loss: 97.245 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
TICKMILL:XAGUSDShort
by Trade8Eight
Silver - Next StopSilver has moved sharply higher, and the explosive upward trend is still ongoing. The move from March to August 2020 can be considered wave 1 and the start of this bullish phase. The question now is: where will we stop and potentially reverse? In other words, where might the next corrective phase begin. Fibonacci levels drawn from the first wave and from the last significant corrective wave point to several key areas: 77 - the nearest level, which we have already passed without stopping 89 - the next most probable target 96 - applicable only to the current wave Time will tell where the next stop occurs. --- Please subscribe and leave a comment. You’ll get new information faster than anyone else. ---
COMEX:SI1!Long
by NotBoringTrading
Silver- Gap Filled. Are New ATHs Next?Silver once again did what it often does best: 1️⃣ it was the first one to signal a reversal, and 2️⃣ it acted in a more technical and disciplined way, by filling the gap and resolving the imbalance. That alone makes Silver cleaner to read than Gold at the moment. Now that the gap is filled and the market is “rebalanced”, the natural question becomes: 👉 Are we going straight back to new ATHs again? ❓ My View: Not Yet Just like in the case of Gold, I don’t think the next move is an immediate continuation higher. In my opinion, the more probable scenario is: ➡️ a revisit toward the 90 zone and potentially ➡️ another wave of selling just around the corner The structure is starting to behave like a market that needs a deeper reset before it can trend again. ✅ Bigger Picture Still Bullish (But Context Matters) To be clear: - on the medium-to-long term, I remain more bullish Silver than Gold - Silver’s macro trend is still strong But we can’t ignore reality: 📌 Silver has almost doubled in value since late December last year Moves like that rarely continue in a straight line without meaningful corrections. ✅ Conclusion Silver is still a bullish market long-term — but short-term, I expect: 👉 more downside pressure 👉 a possible move back to 90 👉 and only after that, we can talk seriously about new ATHs again 🚀
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
1
Bullish continuation?Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which aligns witht he 38.2%Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 4,634.76 1st Support: 4,542.50 1st Resistance: 4,867.17 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by IC Markets
XAUUSD outlook for the next weekGold remains bullish on the higher timeframe, but the recent rejection from the 4 860 resistance area has pushed price into a short-term corrective phase. The failure to hold above this level suggests buy-side liquidity was taken before sellers stepped in, resulting in a temporary shift to lower highs and lower lows on the 15-minute chart. This move appears corrective rather than a full trend reversal, as higher-timeframe structure and demand remain intact. Price is now working its way toward a discounted demand zone between ~4 664 and ~4 633, where prior consolidation and imbalance exist. This area is a high-probability zone for a sell-side liquidity sweep and potential bullish reaction. A strong response from this region could open the path for price to reclaim the mid-range levels and rotate back toward prior highs, with continuation into premium if bullish momentum returns.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDShort
by Zama_Gqibitole
Gold Update 22JAN2026: Check The Power Of TrendlinePrice follows the path posted last week and even broke out of small uptrend How far it can go further up? I switched to a weekly chart and added the trendline built through the peaks of waves 1 and 3 in yellow - it offers strong resistance in $4,950-5,000 area as price usually respects such large trendlines I also checked the size of wave 5 compared to wave 1-3 distance - it reached whopping 1.618x of it compared to normal 0.618-1x Indeed, commodities tend to have extended fifth waves and this extended size is still good RSI on weekly as well as on daily shows Bearish Divergence, this is not the action alert but the indicator of the final stage Let's watch how the price reacts to the trendline as this is the only resistance at the moment The breakdown point now is set at the bottom of the tiny wave 4 at $4,284
COMEX:GC1!
by aibek
OIL face persistent oversupply pressureThe latest IEA monthly Oil Market Report signals that, although the agency has nudged up its 2026 global oil‑demand growth forecast to about 930,000 barrels per day from roughly 860,000 previously, the market is still expected to sit in a sizeable surplus this year, with supply outpacing demand and global inventories continuing to build. The IEA attributes the stronger demand mainly to lower oil prices, a recovery in petrochemical feedstock use and a normalization in global activity after last year’s tariff disruptions, but it also projects global supply to rise by around 2.5 million barrels per day to nearly 109 million, leaving a large, though slightly narrower, glut than in its prior report. As a result, the agency notes that benchmark crude prices remain well below year‑earlier levels because “bloated” onshore and floating stocks provide a significant buffer against geopolitical risks, likely keeping upward price moves in check unless there is a major supply shock. Technical side: USOIL breached above 60.00 and formed higher swings after bouncing from EMA21. Widening bullish EMAs signal a potential continuation of the uptrend. If USOIL closes above 61.20, the price may retest the next resistance at 62.20. Alternatively, staying below 61.20 may keep USOIL consolidating within the range of 60.00-61.20. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
TVC:USOIL
by WiseLeoTrading
New ATH at 96, But Is the Market Done “ATH-ing” for Now?Yesterday, Silver pushed toward 96 and printed what has become almost normal lately: another new all-time high. As expected, once that level was reached, volatility exploded — and fortunately, I managed to catch a quick counter-trend scalp, banking around 1,100 pips in a short amount of time. But the real question now is not about yesterday’s spike. 👉 Is Silver done making ATHs for now? In my opinion: yes. At least temporarily. 🔎 Context: A Huge Move, and the Market Is Starting to Change Behavior Since the beginning of the year, Silver is up more than 30%. But more important than the percentage gain is the price behavior since Monday: - after the weekend gap up - the very short-term structure shifted into a topping formation - rallies into 95 and slightly above are consistently being sold That is typically the first sign that the market is moving from pure momentum mode into distribution / exhaustion mode. It doesn’t mean the long-term trend is broken. It simply means the upside is starting to get crowded, and the risk-reward changes completely. ⚠️ Technical Confirmation Level For me, the correction becomes “real” if we get: 👉 a clean break below 92.70 If that happens, the most logical next move is: 🎯 90 zone — mainly for filling the weekend gap And if the breakdown accelerates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see: ➡️ 85–86 zone as an extended correction target Markets rarely move in perfect steps — and when a parabolic run starts to unwind, it can surprise both sides. 📌 Trading Plan (Short-Term Only) My approach going forward is straightforward: 👉 Sell rallies ✅ as long as 96 remains the ATH / ceiling This is not a “long-term bearish call”. This is a short-term tactical trade in a market that may finally be ready to breathe. P.S. (For Those Who Don’t Understand but Still Comment) 1️⃣ Long term, I’m extremely bullish Silver. I wrote about it recently and nothing has changed on the macro view. 2️⃣ Yes, this is counter-trend. That’s the point — it’s a correction trade, not a trend reversal call. 3️⃣ If I take it, it’s short-term only. No “marriage” with the position. 4️⃣ I know how to take a loss. And I take it fast when the market proves me wrong. 5️⃣ If targets don’t get hit, I know how to manage exits. Break-even, small loss, small profit — I’m not here to “hope”. In markets like this, discipline matters more than prediction. 🚀
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
20
XAUUSD Fake Breakout from Resistance – Expecting Pullback to SupGold (XAUUSD) has formed a fake breakout at the major resistance zone, showing strong rejection from the seller area. Price failed to hold above resistance and is now moving back inside the channel, signaling weak bullish momentum. Currently, market structure suggests a bearish correction toward the buyer zone / support level. If price continues respecting the resistance line, we can expect a move down to the support level around 4692. 📌 Key Points: Fake breakout confirmed at resistance Strong seller zone reaction Price back inside channel Bearish pullback expected Support zone is next target Trade Idea: Sell below resistance confirmation Target: Support / Buyer zone SL: Above resistance zone ⚠️ Always wait for confirmation and manage your risk properly.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Adrian_Trades_
1
It’s Executing a Clean Stair-Step Expansion Toward New ATHOn the Gold H4 timeframe, price action is displaying a highly constructive bullish expansion, not a blow-off move. The market has progressed through a clear three-phase cycle: Phase 1 accumulation after a sharp correction, Phase 2 re-accumulation with higher lows above the EMA, and Phase 3 compression beneath resistance before expansion. Each phase resolved higher, confirming strong demand absorption and trend continuation behavior rather than distribution. The most important technical feature is the series of unfilled value gaps (GAPs) left behind during impulsive moves. These gaps represent inefficient price discovery and act as strong dynamic support zones. Notice how price respected each GAP perfectly before continuing higher this is classic institutional stair-step markup, where pullbacks are shallow, controlled, and corrective. The EMA continues to slope aggressively upward and remains well below price, reinforcing the strength of the trend and showing no signs of bearish divergence. The recent breakout above the Phase 3 consolidation zone is critical. Price did not reject or stall instead, it expanded cleanly and accelerated, indicating acceptance above prior value. This behavior significantly increases the probability of continuation rather than mean reversion. As long as Gold holds above the upper GAP region (~4,628–4,650), any pullback should be viewed as trend continuation entry, not reversal risk. From a projection standpoint, the measured expansion and momentum structure support a move toward the 5,000+ region, aligning with the marked NEW ATH / TARGET zone. Importantly, the projected path anticipates healthy pullbacks, not vertical price which is exactly what strong bull markets do before printing new highs. Bottom line: Gold is in a confirmed bullish expansion cycle with clean structure, strong EMA support, and no distribution signals. Unless price aggressively reclaims and closes below the upper GAP zones, the technical bias remains firmly bullish, with new all-time highs as the next logical objective, not an outlier scenario.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HENRY_TraderGold
Gold Reaches New ATH After AccumulationOn the H1 timeframe, Gold has just completed a textbook accumulation-to-expansion cycle, breaking decisively out of the prior base and pushing into a new all-time high (ATH) zone around 4,880–4,900. The impulsive bullish leg that followed the accumulation range is a clear sign of strong initiative buying, where price expanded rapidly without meaningful pullbacks, leaving limited structure below. The rally originated from the accumulation zone near 4,650–4,690, where price spent extended time compressing while EMAs gradually caught up from below. Once price reclaimed and held above the EMA cluster, momentum accelerated sharply, confirming that the range was accumulation rather than distribution. This breakout phase was clean, vertical, and emotionally driven a classic late-stage expansion characteristic near ATH conditions. At current levels, however, risk is no longer favorable for new longs. Price has now traveled far above both short term and mid-term EMAs, creating a stretched condition. The initial rejection wick near the ATH zone signals the first signs of profit-taking, which is normal after such a strong impulse. Markets rarely continue vertically without first rebalancing liquidity. From a structural perspective, the most logical path forward is a corrective pullback, not immediate continuation. The first meaningful downside magnet sits near 4,750, followed by the deeper liquidity zone around 4,720–4,730, where prior breakout structure and untested demand reside. A pullback into these areas would be technically healthy and would reset conditions for a potential continuation later. Importantly, a correction does not invalidate the broader bullish trend. As long as price remains above the former accumulation range, the higher-timeframe structure stays intact. What matters now is how price reacts during any pullback sharp rejection would signal continuation strength, while slow acceptance lower would imply deeper consolidation. In summary, Gold has successfully completed its bullish expansion into ATH, but the market is now in a late-stage impulse phase. Upside continuation is possible later, but near-term price action favors correction and consolidation rather than chasing strength at highs.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BlackGoldMarket
ATH Pullback Is Not Weakness — Gold Is RotatingOn the H1 Gold chart, the rejection from the new all-time high (≈4,888) should be read as a natural post-expansion correction, not a trend failure. The move into ATH was a clean, vertical impulsive leg, leaving behind clear inefficiencies and unmitigated value below. In strong bullish conditions, price does not collapse immediately. it rotates, stair stepping lower to rebalance liquidity before the next decision point. Structurally, the current pullback projection aligns perfectly with a bullish retracement model. The first reaction level around 4,761 represents prior intraday acceptance and short-term equilibrium. A deeper rotation toward 4,724 would still be considered healthy, as it remains well above the origin of the impulse. The most critical level sits at EMA 98 + demand / gap confluence around 4,687 – 4,660. This zone is the real line in the sand for bulls. Importantly, this demand zone is not random. It marks the base of the breakout, where price transitioned from balance into expansion. Markets frequently revisit such zones to test participation and absorb late sellers. As long as price reacts and holds above this area, the higher-timeframe bullish structure remains fully intact. A controlled reaction here would likely attract fresh buyers rather than trigger panic selling. From a market logic perspective, there is no evidence of distribution. There is no topping range, no failed BOS, and no aggressive bearish displacement below key structure. What we see instead is profit-taking and liquidity rotation after ATH, which is exactly how strong trends sustain themselves over time. Gold is not breaking down it is digesting gains. The current downside path points toward high-quality demand and EMA support, where continuation setups are statistically favored. Unless price accepts below the demand + gap zone, this pullback should be treated as a reload phase, with ATH continuation still the dominant macro scenario, not a reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XauMasterNetwork
2
M30 Gold Chart based on Wyckoff Market Cycle ModelTODAY'S LIMITED STRATEGY JAN 21 Intraday trading: Adjust 📌 SET UP 1. Timming Sell Zone XAUUSD SELL ZONE: 4899 - 4902 💰 Take Profit(TP): 4896 - 4891 ❎ Stoploss(SL): 4906 Note capital management to ensure account safety 📌 SET UP 2. Timming Buy Zone XAUUSD BUY ZONE: 4782 - 4785 💰 Take Profit(TP): 4788 - 4793 ❎ Stoploss(SL): 4778 Note capital management to ensure account safety M30 Gold Chart based on Wyckoff Market Cycle Model 1. Current Market Context - Gold has completed its previous Accumulation phase and experienced a very clear Markup. Large capital flows pushed prices up rapidly, continuously creating new highs with strong momentum. - However, at present, the price is moving within the Distribution zone – indicated by sideways, narrow-range swings at the peak. This suggests that buying pressure is no longer as dominant as before; the market is in a phase of absorbing liquidity and transferring positions. 2. Notable Technical Signals - Price is at a high level, far from the medium-term MA line → increased risk of chasing the rally. - Repeated price swings within the upper range → a sign of sideways distribution, no longer a strong upward phase. - Momentum (oscillator) remains at a high level → a sell-off or technical correction is likely to occur. 3. Future Development Scenarios Today - Main Scenario: Price tends to break out of the distribution zone and enter a MarkDown phase (reverse correction), with the immediate target being the support zones below to rebalance the market. - Secondary Scenario: Price may continue to fluctuate within the distribution zone before confirming a clear direction, but the probability of a strong upward move is not high. 4. Trading Strategy - Prioritize staying out or waiting to sell at high resistance levels, avoiding FOMO (fear of missing out) buying. - Only look for buying opportunities when the price corrects to a clear support zone and new confirmation signals appear. - Manage risk tightly as the market is in a sensitive area. 👉 Summary: The overall trend remains strong, but in the short term today, the market leans towards correction or distribution, no longer a safe buying phase. Patience and discipline will be more important than entering many trades.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mathew_TraderGold
4
Gold Pausing at Extremes – Waiting on Value or ConfirmationPrice stalled throughout yesterday’s session and failed to produce a clean breakdown until after the NY session. This hesitation coincided with the World Economic Summit, where uncertainty kept price compressed and choppy. Once Trump spoke, Gold began to show signs of weakness, suggesting that macro-driven flows may finally be easing. With price having consolidated in the same area since Monday’s London session, I’m now watching to see if this pause resolves lower before continuation. Key levels I’m monitoring: Previous Daily Low: 4756.7 A clean break and acceptance below this level could open the door for a deeper retrace. H4 Fair Value Gap: Located just above the Weekly Open This remains my primary area of interest if price seeks value. Previous Weekly Low: Resides inside the H4 FVG, adding confluence to the zone. At current prices, conditions remain choppy and extended, offering poor risk-to-reward. I’m not interested in forcing trades in the middle of this range. I want to see either: A decisive breakdown into value, or Clear continuation strength above recent highs with acceptance. Until then, patience is required.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by DWoodz
Gold Is Not Chasing Liquidity — It’s Building a LaunchpadOn the H1 Gold chart, the market is showing a textbook bullish continuation structure, not exhaustion. The impulsive leg that started from the HTF demand + GAP zone was clean, decisive, and accompanied by a clear BOS followed by multiple CHoCH confirmations, signaling a strong internal shift in market control from sellers to buyers. This is not emotional price, it is structured accumulation transitioning into expansion. After the initial breakout, price did exactly what a healthy trend should do: it paused and rebalanced above value, forming a POC-based consolidation before expanding again. This tells us large players are not exiting they are building positions at higher prices, accepting value higher rather than forcing a deep retracement. The blue and red EMAs are aligned bullishly, with price holding comfortably above them, reinforcing trend strength and momentum continuation. The current area labeled FVG / Reaction Zone is critical. It represents an inefficiency left behind by aggressive buying. In strong trends, these zones often act as shallow pullback areas, not full retracement targets. A controlled dip into this zone without acceptance below it would be considered bullish mitigation, not weakness. As long as price holds above the FVG and especially above the POC zone, the structure remains intact. From a projection perspective, the path toward 4,900 – 4,920 and ultimately a NEW ATH around 4,900.505+ is technically justified. The projected pullback shown is healthy and proportional a pause to reload liquidity before continuation, not a reversal setup. Importantly, there is no bearish displacement, no distribution range, and no failure to reclaim highs all of which would be required to invalidate the bullish scenario. Gold is in a controlled bullish expansion, stair-stepping higher through BOS → value acceptance → continuation. Unless price breaks and accepts back below the FVG and POC zones, the market bias remains strongly bullish, with new all-time highs as the next logical destination, not a speculative stretch.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RexTraderGOLD
5
XAUUSD – Strong Opening Gap: When Smart Money Doesn’t WaitHello everyone, Domic here. Looking at the XAUUSD H4 chart at the start of the week, what really stands out to me is not where price is trading, but the strong bullish GAP that appeared right at the market open. In context, this GAP formed at a very “logical” spot. Prior to the weekend, price had been holding firmly above both the EMA 34 and EMA 89, with the bullish structure fully intact. At the same time, price action was getting increasingly compressed around the 4,580–4,610 zone. When a market consolidates long enough within a strong uptrend, it often doesn’t climb step by step anymore — it jumps to a new price level. This opening GAP is a direct result of that built-up pressure. As for the catalyst, the story behind this move is fairly familiar. Expectations of a dovish Fed stance going into next year remain unchanged, US bond yields have failed to establish a fresh upside trend, while geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven demand. When such factors emerge or intensify over the weekend, the market often cannot react immediately. Instead, the adjustment gets priced in at the weekly open. Combined with thinner liquidity during the Asian session, it doesn’t take much buying pressure for a GAP like this to form. The key question many traders are asking now is: will this GAP get filled? My view is quite straightforward — not every GAP is meant to be filled . In a strong uptrend, GAPs often act as continuation signals rather than inefficiencies to be corrected. At this stage, my preferred scenario is a technical pullback toward the upper part of the GAP to “retest conviction,” followed by a continuation toward the 4,700–4,730 area. If that zone is broken decisively, it would add another layer of confirmation to the medium-term bullish trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DomicChaina
35
Miss the latest TACO trade? Gold hit a fresh record above $4,800 on Wednesday as investors moved into safe havens amid fresh tariff threats from the White House. That move is now unwinding. In a social media post, President Donald Trump said he no longer plans to impose tariffs on European countries that opposed his ambitions for the US to acquire Greenland. He wrote: “I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st.” US equities rallied on the shift. The Dow jumped 588.64 points, while the SP500 rose 1.16% and the Nasdaq gained 1.18%. Gold gave back earlier gains. While gold remains historically high, the removal of the February 1st tariff deadline has punctured the immediate US risk premium.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets