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Commodities

Macroeconomic Indicator: Gold-Copper SpreadMacroeconomic Indicator: Gold-to-Copper Spread The Gold-to-Copper Spread (Gold-to-Copper Ratio) is the ratio between the price of gold and the price of copper, expressed by the formula: Gold–Copper Ratio = Price of Gold / Price of Copper This indicator shows how much the price of gold exceeds or lags behind the price of copper at a given point in time. It is often used to analyze market sentiment, assess economic stability, and identify investor preferences. Gold Gold is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset. Its price generally rises during periods of economic and financial uncertainty, when investors seek to preserve capital and reduce risk. Additionally, gold may receive support in the following conditions: weakening of the US dollar rising inflation expectations declining real interest rates increasing geopolitical risks growing demand from central banks Copper Copper is often called “the doctor of the economy” due to its high sensitivity to industrial production and economic growth. The price of copper typically rises during phases of economic expansion, when demand for commodities and risk assets increases. The spread reflects only the relationship between the two assets and does not account for other factors such as exchange rates, geopolitics, or changes in monetary policy. Copper may also rise under the following conditions: supply deficits (strikes, logistical disruptions, declining production) structural growth in demand (electric vehicles, energy transition, data centers) monetary stimulus and growth in global liquidity weakening of the US dollar speculative phases in commodity markets stimulus measures from China Rising Gold/Copper Ratio Typically signals: increase in risk-off sentiment deterioration in economic expectations growing demand for safe-haven assets expectations of recession or slowdown intensification of geopolitical risks decline in real interest rates This is usually accompanied by weakness in equity markets, cyclical sectors, and industrial commodities. Falling Gold/Copper Ratio Typically indicates: strengthening of risk-on sentiment improving expectations for economic growth growth in industrial activity capital inflows into risk assets the beginning or middle of an economic expansion It often correlates with rising equity indices, industrial metals (in a “healthy” risk-on regime, copper should rise not alone but together with aluminum, nickel, and zinc), oil, industrial ETFs (XLI), equity indices, PMI, macro data, and bond yields. The Spread Cannot Be Analyzed in Isolation Key indicators without which this indicator should not be interpreted: Real rates DXY (US dollar) S&P 500, Russell 2000, Industrial ETF (XLI), oil (WTI, Brent), aluminum, zinc, nickel, CRB Index / GSCI China: real demand or illusion — declining or growing Geopolitics All these metrics can be found on TradingView. It is recommended to create a separate watchlist and monitor them there. The Spread Is Falling This means copper is stronger than gold. The base hypothesis is that the market is shifting into risk-on mode. We then verify this using other indicators. 1. Real Rates Real rates are rising - gold is under pressure, the spread falls for a “healthy” reason. This confirms that the market truly expects economic growth. Real rates are falling, but the spread is still falling - copper is rising too aggressively. This is not a macro growth signal, but rather a sign of copper supply deficit or speculative acceleration. Conclusion: If the spread falls while real yields are rising, this is a strong, clean risk-on signal. If it falls while real yields are declining, distortions are already present. 2. DXY (US Dollar) DXY is falling - supportive for commodities, copper’s strength looks logical. This confirms a risk-on environment. DXY is rising, but the spread is still falling - copper is rising despite currency pressure. This is often a sign of a local copper deficit or an artificial squeeze. Conclusion: A falling spread with a weak dollar is a normal macro scenario. A falling spread with a strong dollar is a reason to be cautious. 3. What Should Happen in Other Markets If the decline in the spread reflects true risk-on, typically: S&P 500 is rising Russell 2000 is rising faster than S&P (increased risk appetite) Industrial ETF (XLI) is in an uptrend Oil (WTI, Brent) is strengthening Aluminum, zinc, and nickel are rising together with copper CRB / GSCI commodity indices are moving higher Key point: Copper should not rise alone. If you see copper rising, equities flat, oil weak, metals not confirming then this is almost always mean that not macro growth, but a local copper story (supply shock, squeeze, speculation). 4. China: Real Demand or Illusion Copper is almost impossible to interpret without China. China PMI rising + credit impulse rising + yuan strengthening copper growth is fundamentally confirmed a falling spread = healthy risk-on China PMI falling + weak economy, but copper rising this is not macro demand it is either a supply deficit or speculative flows Conclusion: If China does not confirm copper’s move, the decline in the spread loses its macro meaning. The Spread Is Rising This means gold is stronger than copper. The base hypothesis is that the market is moving into defense (risk-off). But confirmation is still required. 1. Real Rates Real rates are falling - gold rising is logical. If equities and commodities weaken at the same time, this is true risk-off. Real rates are rising, but gold is still rising - the driver is not monetary. This is usually geopolitics or fear of systemic risks. Conclusion: Rising spread with falling real yields = classic macro risk-off. Rising spread with rising real yields = the market is genuinely afraid. 2. DXY (US Dollar) DXY is rising - pressure on commodities, support for gold - the rising spread looks logical. DXY is falling, but the spread is still rising - gold is rising too strongly. This is most often a sign of fear, geopolitics, or systemic hedging. Conclusion: Rising spread with a strong dollar = standard risk-off. Rising spread with a weak dollar = a warning signal. 3. What Should Happen in Other Markets If the rise in the spread reflects true risk-off, typically: S&P 500 weakens or moves into correction Russell 2000 falls faster than S&P XLI (industrial sector) is under pressure Oil weakens Industrial metals fall CRB / GSCI move lower If instead gold is rising, equities are rising, oil is holding, commodities are not falling, then this is not classic risk-off. It means gold is rising for its own reasons (rates, geopolitics, hedging). 4. China (PMI) Chinese data weakening + copper falling the rise in the spread is fundamentally confirmed the market truly expects a slowdown Chinese data strong, but copper still weak the issue is not demand, but other markets the spread signal is distorted Geopolitics in the Interpretation of the Gold/Copper Ratio and Markets Geopolitics is a factor that breaks the normal macro logic of markets. It is not directly linked to the economic cycle, but it sharply changes capital behavior. If macro indicators reflect “slow” processes (rates, growth, inflation), then geopolitics represents shock events that trigger fear, defensive positioning, risk aversion, increased demand for liquidity That is why it is always considered separately from macroeconomics. How Geopolitics Affects the Gold/Copper Spread In most cases, geopolitics, strengthens demand for gold, weakly supports copper, therefore pushes the spread higher But the key point is: this is not because the economy is deteriorating, but because investors are hedging against event risk. That is why a geopolitically driven rise in the spread often is not confirmed by falling equities, is not accompanied by worsening PMI, does not coincide with changes in interest rates Enjoy!
Education
by LonesomeTheBlue
1
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPHey everyone, Please see our Daily chart route map and trade idea with the updated axis level above after completing the range last week just short of the full channel top. We currently have a small daily body close above 4605, opening the path toward the 4681 AXIS target. A 5EMA lock would further confirm this move but not a must if momentum takes it sooner If instead we see a rejection at this level, this would open 4507. A further close below 4507 would expose the channel half-line at 4406, which is a stronger primary support level where a stronger bounce is more likely. Only a decisive break below the channel half-line would open the larger swing range, aligning with the channel floor This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn. We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops from rejections, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
14
Gold Reaches New ATH as Geopolitical Risks Shift – What’s Next!?This week, Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) opened with a significant gap due to rising tensions between Europe and the U.S. over Greenland, as well as threats from Trump regarding new tariffs on European countries. Additionally, the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East has fueled gold’s bullish trend over the past few days. Recently, at the Davos meeting, Trump stated that there would be no military action regarding Greenland, indicating a potential easing of tensions. This could weaken the fundamental bullish momentum of gold. Over the past few days, gold has been trading within an ascending channel and has been setting new all-time highs almost every day, raising the question of how long this bullish trend can continue. From a technical standpoint, and considering the fundamental developments, any new geopolitical events could impact gold’s bullish momentum. It’s important to note that when an asset sets a new all-time high, technical analysis becomes less reliable since it lacks historical data. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that gold is completing wave 5, which may end within the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . I expect that once gold breaks below the ascending channel’s lower line, it will begin a corrective phase, potentially dropping to around $4,749. First Target: $4,749 Second Target: Support line Stop Loss(SL): $4,984(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves I’d love to hear your thoughts on gold. How long do you think it can maintain this bullish trend? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
24
GOLD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT Hello, Friends! GOLD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 4,723.13 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the GOLD pair. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by EliteTradingSignals
4
Gold 30-Min — Volume Buy Reversal Triggered⚡Base : Hanzo Trading Alpha Algorithm The algorithm calculates volatility displacement vs liquidity recovery, identifying where probability meets imbalance. It trades only where precision, volume, and manipulation intersect —only logic. Technical Reasons / Direction — LONG / Reversal 4760 Area ☄️Bullish momentum confirmed through strong candle body. ☄️Structure shifted with higher-low near key demand base. ☄️Volume expanding confirms order-flow alignment upward. ☄️Buyers reclaimed imbalance with sustained clean break. ☄️Algorithm detects rising momentum under low liquidity. ⚙️ Hanzo Alpha Trading Protocol The Alpha Candle defines the day’s real control zone — the first battle of momentum. From this origin, the Volume Window reveals where the next precision strike begins. ⚙️ Hanzo Volume Window / Map Window tracked from 10:30 — mapping true market behavior. POC alignment exposes institutional bias and breakout potential zones. ⚙️ Hanzo Delta Window / Pulse Delta window monitors real buying vs. selling power behind each move. Tracks volume aggression to expose who controls the candle — buyers or sellers. When Delta aligns with Volume Map, momentum becomes undeniable.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Path_Of_Hanzo
72
GOLD The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for GOLD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4824.7 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 4844.7 My Stop Loss - 4813.7 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by AnabelSignals
1
Crude Oil (WTI) — Daily Structure UpdateOn the daily timeframe, price remains in a tight consolidation regime, with short- and medium-term structure compressing while longer-term trend context remains intact. The 10 and 20 EMAs have climbed back toward the 50 EMA, with all three now flattening, reflecting momentum stabilization rather than directional expansion. The 200 EMA remains above price, maintaining a neutral-to-cautious longer-term trend backdrop, though slope has begun to stabilize after prior downside momentum. ATR continues to compress, signaling volatility contraction and energy build-up, consistent with a maturing consolidation phase. RSI(14) is holding near 52, while longer-term RSI remains near 53, keeping both short- and long-term strength conditions constructive. The slight downward curvature reflects near-term momentum digestion rather than structural weakness. Rate of Change (ROC) shows a short-term pullback, aligning with RSI behavior and supporting a controlled reset rather than trend failure. Overall, this remains a compression-driven environment, with volatility contracting as price structure tightens. This phase typically precedes range resolution, with broader trend context remaining the dominant driver. ⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐ Structure remains coiled rather than broken. Volatility compression and momentum stabilization suggest regime positioning rather than trend exhaustion, keeping focus on structure resolution rather than directional prediction.
TVC:USOIL
by codymiller12727
DeGRAM | GOLD is testing the resistance line📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD is trading near the upper boundary of a long-term rising channel, where price repeatedly failed to sustain above dynamic resistance, signaling exhaustion after an extended bullish leg. ● The appearance of a head and shoulders structure, combined with an unfilled gap and rejection from the resistance line, increases the probability of a corrective move toward the mid-channel and 4,750–4,660 support zone. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold faces pressure from stable bond yields and reduced safe-haven demand as markets digest central bank guidance and easing geopolitical risk premiums. ✨ Summary ● Medium-term bearish correction favored. Resistance near 4,900–5,000. Downside objectives lie at 4,750 and 4,660 while price remains capped below channel resistance. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DeGRAM
2
XAUUSD: sell idea near 4757🛠 Technical Analysis: Price is still in a broader uptrend, but the latest spike stalled inside the resistance zone near 4895, followed by a pullback. The 4757 level stands out as a key pivot (prior reaction level) where sellers may step in again if price retests and fails to reclaim momentum. A bearish break/confirmation below 4757 increases the probability of a deeper correction toward the next support area around 4640. If downside pressure accelerates, the move can extend to the lower support near 4525, while a clean push above 4895 would weaken the bearish scenario. ——————————————— ❗️ Trade Parameters (SELL) ——————————————— ➡️ Entry Point: 4747.63 🎯 Take Profit: 4525.81 🔴 Stop Loss: 4895.16 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
TICKMILL:XAUUSDShort
by Trade8Eight
XAUUSD 1H Outlook: Bullish Continuation After PullbackXAUUSD 1H Outlook: Bullish Continuation After Pullback (Key Support/Resistance + Trade Plans) Gold (XAUUSD) on the 1H chart remains in a clear bullish market structure after breaking higher from the previous range. Price rallied aggressively into the 4,886 swing high, then pulled back and is now stabilizing around 4,826, suggesting a pause/consolidation before the next directional leg. The key question for today is simple: does price hold the higher-low zone (dip-buy continuation), or does it lose the pullback support (deeper retracement toward prior breakout levels)? Market Structure and Price Action The chart shows a strong impulsive leg up from the 4,697 breakout area toward 4,886. The pullback from 4,886 looks corrective rather than a full reversal: sharp drop, quick recovery, then sideways grind. As long as price holds above the breakout supports, the bias stays buy-the-dip. Key Levels to Watch Today Resistance Zones 4,886: current swing high / supply reaction point. First major resistance. 4,920 – 4,960: upside continuation zone (psychological + projected path on chart). 5,000: psychological magnet if momentum accelerates after a clean breakout. Support Zones 4,814 – 4,792: first “dip-buy” zone (Fib confluence from 4,697 → 4,886). 4,769: deeper pullback support (often the “last defense” of a bullish continuation). 4,697: prior breakout base / key demand. Losing this would weaken the bullish structure. 4,641 and 4,516: higher-timeframe supports if the market shifts into a broader retracement. Fibonacci Map (Swing 4,697 → 4,886) Using the impulse leg low-to-high: 0.382 retracement: ~4,814 0.50 retracement: ~4,792 0.618 retracement: ~4,769 This is your highest-probability “reaction cluster” if price dips again. EMA and RSI Confirmation To refine entries and avoid chasing: EMA Trend Filter (1H): Bullish continuation is favored when price holds above EMA20/EMA50, or reclaims them quickly after a pullback. RSI Behavior (1H): In a healthy uptrend, RSI often finds support near the midline (around 50). A bounce from that area supports long continuation; sustained weakness below it warns of deeper retracement. Intraday Trade Setups (High-Probability Plans) Setup A: Buy the Dip (Primary Trend Strategy) Best used if price revisits the pullback zone and shows rejection. Entry zone: 4,814 – 4,792 (Fib 0.382–0.50) Trigger: bullish rejection candle / higher low formation on 15m–1H Stop-loss: below 4,769 (Fib 0.618) or below the pullback swing low Targets: TP1: 4,860 – 4,886 TP2: 4,920 – 4,960 TP3: toward 5,000 if breakout momentum holds Logic: trade with the trend, buy where liquidity typically gets absorbed during pullbacks. Setup B: Breakout Continuation Above 4,886 (Momentum Strategy) Only valid on a clean break and hold, not a wick. Entry: 1H close above 4,886, then retest/hold Stop-loss: back below 4,860–4,850 (or below breakout retest low) Targets: 4,920 – 4,960 first, then 5,000 Logic: confirmation reduces false breakouts; retest entry improves risk-to-reward. Setup C: Short Scalp (Counter-Trend, Tactical Only) This is not a “trend reversal call,” just a tactical trade if 4,886 rejects hard. Entry: rejection at/near 4,886 with bearish follow-through Stop-loss: above the rejection high Targets: 4,825 then 4,814/4,792 Logic: only take it if the rejection is clear; otherwise, the dominant flow is bullish. Invalidation Conditions Bullish continuation weakens if price loses 4,769 and fails to reclaim it. Structure damage becomes more serious below 4,697 (breakout base), opening the door toward 4,641 and potentially 4,516. Summary XAUUSD on 1H is still biased bullish as long as pullbacks remain supported above the breakout zones. The cleanest plan for today is to buy dips into the Fib cluster (4,814–4,792–4,769) or trade the confirmed breakout above 4,886 toward 4,920–4,960 and potentially 5,000.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
2
XAUUSD: The Power of Liquidity Sweeps & Market Structure 📌GOLD (XAUUSD) has been repeating the same pattern for months: 1. The Sweep: Market hunts the Previous Daily Low (PDL) or Previous Weekly Low (PWL) to grab liquidity. 2. The POI: Price taps into the nearest Point of Interest (Daily or 4H : FVG or Order Block). 3. The Expansion: Once grabbed liquidity, the real move begins Look at the chart —every single leg up is fueled by a liquidity grab followed by a solid Break of Structure Analysis of the current chart: As shown, every major leg up is preceded by a liquidity grab. By waiting for the previous Daily low to be sweeped and touch the current Daily FVG ten look for a Long position Safe trading everyone! If you find this analysis helpful, please like and follow for more SMC insights. _________________________ Daily timeframe
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Alpha_Trading_Lab
XAGUSD SILVERXAGUSD SILVER Unlike gold, it cannot be reused (only with large losses), and therefore its amount is constantly decreasing. Most of the demand for this precious metal, namely 60%, comes from industry. Silver is limited, which means that its value will increase significantly every year. According to forecasts, based on the rate of silver production - the world's reserves of this precious metal may theoretically be exhausted within 15 years. If we look at most of the large-scale, global crises and the reaction to the precious metals market, we will see that demand has only increased. Silver is an excellent tool for diversifying a long-term investor's portfolio. The growth potential is incredible in the long term, speaking of an investment of 10 years or more. Technically: There is a clear uptrend. A Cup and Handle pattern is forming on the monthly chart. Also, the 50-100-200 moving averages have recently crossed. It is a strong buy signal. Best regards, EXCAVO
TVC:SILVERLong
by EXCAVO
30
GOLD (XAUUSD): Updated Support & Resistance Analysis Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold. Resistance 1: 4890 - 4906 area Resistance 2: 4946 - 4955 area Resistance 3: 4994 - 5008 area Support 1: 4629 - 4644 area Support 2: 4537 - 4550 area Support 3: 4495 - 4501 area Support 4: 4342 - 4450 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
5
GOLD | H4 Elliott Wave Count AnalysisAfter the recent rally, GOLD appears to have completed its impulsive structure. In my current view, the V / (5) wave has likely ended, and an A-B-C corrective phase has begun. At the moment, price is developing the (A) leg of the correction to the downside. The 4,600 – 4,650 zone stands out as a key decision area. This zone represents: Prior structural base Demand zone Fibonacci extension confluence If this area holds and buyers respond, a (B) type corrective rebound may unfold. I would still treat such a move as a corrective reaction, not a continuation of the main trend. If price establishes acceptance below this zone, the correction may extend into the (C) leg, opening the door for lower levels. For now, I remain patient and focus on how price reacts around this key area.
TVC:GOLDShort
by arctraded
2
WTI (USOIL) Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure TVC:USOIL WTI is currently trading within a rising channel, after rebounding from the recent swing lows. Price has found support around the $60.15–$60.33 support zone, where buying interest has emerged and downside momentum has slowed. The market structure suggests a potential bullish continuation. As long as WTI holds above the support zone, price action favours a rebound toward the $61.04–$61.21 resistance zone. The projected path indicates a brief consolidation near current levels, followed by an upside push into the resistance band, rather than an immediate breakdown. 🎯 Trade Setup (Bullish Bias) Entry Zone: 60.15 – 60.33 Stop Loss: 59.99 Take Profit 1: 61.04 Take Profit 2: 61.20 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1 : 2.26 📌 Invalidation A sustained break and close below $59.99 would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a deeper downside correction. 🌐 Macro Background The broader macro backdrop remains mixed but supportive for WTI in the near term. Easing geopolitical tensions after President Trump stepped back from tariff threats against European nations have helped stabilize risk sentiment, providing short-term support for crude prices. At the same time, signals of temporary supply disruptions in Kazakhstan have added upside pressure, as production at major oilfields was halted following power outages. However, the upside remains capped by persistent oversupply concerns, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reiterating that global oil supply is expected to significantly exceed demand this year. In the short term, markets are digesting these opposing forces, with price action favouring range-based recovery moves when crude stabilizes at well-defined technical support. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 61.04 – 61.21 Support Zone: 60.15 – 60.33 Bullish Invalidation: Below 59.99 📌 Trade Summary WTI is holding above a critical support zone within a rising channel after a corrective pullback. As long as price remains supported above $60.15, the bias favours a buy-on-dips approach, targeting a continuation move toward the upper resistance band. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Financial markets involve risk, and traders should manage positions according to their own risk tolerance.
TVC:USOIL
by ATFX_Global
NZDUSD: rejection at 0.5860🛠 Technical Analysis: Price has rallied into a key resistance/supply zone around 0.5850–0.5860, where sellers are attempting to defend the level. The latest push looks stretched after the impulse leg, and the “local/global bearish” signals on the chart suggest a corrective pullback may develop. A breakdown below the rising support line (and the nearby MA-cluster) would add confirmation for continuation lower toward the next demand area. Nearest downside objectives sit around 0.5739 first, then deeper support levels if momentum accelerates. ——————————————— ❗️ Trade Parameters (SELL) ——————————————— ➡️ Entry Point: 0.58385 🎯 Take Profit: 0.57392 🔴 Stop Loss: 0.59042 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
Short
by Trade8Eight
XAUUSD Long Bias: Bullish Structure Respected Above Rising TrendOANDA:XAUUSD – Daily Smart Money Plan | H1 continues to update its historical ATH, currently testing zone OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is now trading in a late-stage bullish phase after a strong upside displacement and confirmed BOS. Today’s volatility is being fueled by a hot macro headline: Donald Trump signaling he has a preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, reigniting speculation around future rate direction and USD sensitivity. While this narrative supports short-term safe-haven demand, Smart Money behavior on H1 shows a different priority. Price is no longer accelerating. Instead, it is reacting around premium highs — a typical zone where liquidity is exchanged and positions are rebalanced, not where institutions aggressively chase headlines. Market Structure & Liquidity Context • Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish, but current H1 flow shows loss of momentum at extremes. • The prior impulsive rally created a clean expansion leg followed by CHoCH, signaling a shift from trend continuation into rotation. • A clear FVG + strong support zone below price marks the path of least resistance if premium fails. • Current trading is occurring near external buy-side liquidity around 4866–4868, a classic distribution area. • The market is transitioning from expansion into range-to-corrective behavior, driven by liquidity delivery. ➡ Headlines may attract participation, but levels decide outcomes. Key Trading Scenarios 🔴 Sell Reaction at Premium (Primary Scenario) 4866 – 4868 This zone aligns with: • External buy-side liquidity • Prior OB resistance • Overextended premium pricing Failure to hold above this area or weak acceptance suggests liquidity has been taken, opening a rotation toward value. 🟢 Buy Reaction at Discount (Contingency Scenario) 4755 – 4753 • Sell-side liquidity pool • Prior accumulation + structural support • Area for Smart Money re-entry if rotation completes Invalidation • Clean H1 acceptance and sustained hold above 4876 shifts bias back to continuation toward higher channel targets. Expectation & Bias This is not a breakout-chasing environment. • Liquidity precedes direction • Acceptance confirms continuation • Rejection favors rotation • Execution > opinion Let price reveal intent at the zones. Smart Money reacts to where price is, not what the news says. 💬 Do you expect premium acceptance after the Fed-chair headline — or another liquidity-driven rotation back to discount?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wendy_Grace