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JPY Devaluing At The Same Rate As TRY Against $Since April, the JPY has been falling at the same rate as the TRY against the $. This is Alarming, should the trend continue. This makes this even more interesting, is that the DXY since Trump took office, has dropped almost by the same amount! What is important to also understand is that the JPY is 145 of the DXY. As such, if the JPY were to strengthen (all else being equal) the DXY would be down even more! How would that help the "AFFORDABILITY HOAX" if the $ keeps devaluing, requiring more $s to buy the same amount of goods & services? Now, does it make a bit more sense why Gold & Silver have soared this year? I hate to keep harping on JPY, but it is important to all traders/investors in all asset classes, not just FX. THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
Short
by RealMacro
5
SILVER Bullish Bias! Buy! Hello,Traders! SILVER delivers a clean displacement through a key horizontal range, confirming bullish BOS and smart money continuation. The breakout holds above prior supply-turned-support, suggesting acceptance and strength, with upside liquidity resting at higher premium levels. Time Frame 2H. Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
1
ASTER/USDT (4H) Chart Pattern...ASTER/USDT (4H) Chart Pattern– Targets (Based on the Chart) The chart shows a strong downtrend with price trading below the descending trendline and a bearish continuation move. 📉 Bearish Targets: Target 1: 0.60 Target 2: 0.45 Main Target: 0.25 – 0.20 (marked target zone) 🛑 Resistance / Invalidation: Resistance: 0.82 – 0.85 A 4H close above 0.85 would weaken the bearish setup. 📌 Summary: As long as price stays below the descending trendline, further downside toward 0.25–0.20 is expected. If my want, I can also provide entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels or a bullish alternative scenario.
Short
by XAUxBTC_Pro
6
SOL/USDT – 2H chart patternSOL/USDT – 2H chart pattern (Based on the Chart) The chart shows a descending channel with a bearish breakdown. Based on that structure: 📉 Bearish Targets: Target 1: 120.00 Target 2: 115.00 Main Target: 108.50 – 104.00 (marked target zone) 🛑 Resistance / Invalidation: Resistance: 128.00 – 130.00 A strong close above 130 would weaken the bearish setup. 📌 Summary: As long as price stays below the descending channel resistance, continuation to 108–104 is likely. If my want, I can also give: Exact entry / SL / TP Scalp or swing setup Bullish alternative scenario
Short
by XAUxBTC_Pro
1
XAUUSD: Resistance Holds Strong - Support $4,270 Retest LikelyHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup. Market Analysis XAUUSD is trading within a broader bullish structure, but the current price action shows signs of a short-term corrective phase after a strong impulsive move higher. Earlier, gold successfully broke above the Triangle Resistance Line, which marked the end of the previous bearish pressure and confirmed a shift in market control toward buyers. Following this breakout, price entered a Range phase, where the market consolidated and built liquidity before the next move. This consolidation was later resolved with a strong breakout above the Range, pushing XAUUSD into a higher price zone and confirming continued bullish momentum. Currently, after the breakout, gold rallied sharply and reached the Resistance Zone around 4,350–4,360, where sellers began to react. This area has historically acted as a strong supply zone, and the current rejection indicates that selling pressure is increasing at these highs. At the moment, price is pulling back from the resistance and moving toward the Support Zone around 4,270, which aligns with the previous breakout structure and the rising Trend Line. This zone represents a key demand area where buyers previously stepped in. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario is short-term corrective as long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,350 Resistance Zone and continues to show rejection from this level. I expect price to retrace toward the 4,270 Support Zone, where the next reaction will be critical for short-term direction. A clean breakdown below the 4,270 Support Zone would signal a deeper correction and could open the path toward lower demand levels along the trend line. However, if price reaches support and shows a strong bullish reaction, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and buyers may attempt another push toward the resistance highs. For now, the market is in a pullback phase, with 4,270 as the key level to watch for confirmation of either continuation or deeper correction. That’s the setup I’m monitoring. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ratner
23
USOIL Is Bullish! Long! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 56.495. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 60.210 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILLong
by SignalProvider
1
Trading plan for the last week of 20251️⃣ Trendline Main ascending trendline (price channel): The medium-term trend remains bullish. Price is moving within the channel and is currently in the upper half, → favor buying with the trend. Upper trendline: Dynamic resistance, aligning with Fibonacci extensions → high probability of volatility and profit-taking around this area. 2️⃣ Resistance 4,380 – 4,400: Strong resistance zone, confluence of the upper trendline + Fibonacci 2.618 → a clear breakout and hold is required to open further upside momentum. 4,510: Next upside target if price breaks and holds above 4,380 (higher Fibonacci extension zone). 3️⃣ Support 4,260 – 4,270: Short-term support, demand zone + moving averages → losing this zone may trigger a deeper correction. 4,140 – 4,150: Major support below, near the lower trendline of the ascending channel → strategic buy zone in line with the overall trend. 4️⃣ Fibonacci Fibonacci retracement highlights: 0.382 – 0.5: Intermediate support during pullbacks. 2.618 – 3.618: Key resistance/target zones above, where price is likely to react strongly. 📈 TRADE SETUPS BUY GOLD: 4,260 – 4,258 Stop Loss: 4,248 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips SELL GOLD: 4,400 – 4,402 Stop Loss: 4,412 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AstronautPioneer
Gold vs Uranium: Barter Valuation. Forecast to 2040❗️** Disclaimer: ** This idea is part of a larger comprehensive article on Uranium. To fully understand the context and the big picture, please refer to the main article at the link below: ☢️ Uranium: Defining the Future. 2025–2050 Vision & Forecast ⚖️ Gold vs Uranium: Barter Valuation. Forecast to 2040 Investing in U3O8 is not a bet on temporary hype, but on a structural shift where energy sovereignty becomes more valuable than money. To assess the true value of uranium, undistorted by inflation, we use the barter GOLD/Uranium Ratio . This chart shows how many pounds (lb) of uranium can be purchased with one ounce (oz) of gold. Historical Context and Ranges For better visual perception, the chart is inverted and divided into three zones: 🔴 Red (5–20): Range of "expensive" uranium. 🟡 Yellow (approx. 35): Historical median. Equilibrium barter price. 🟢 Green (55–70): Range of "cheap" uranium. Historically, the Au/U ratio spent the vast majority of its time in the 5–40 lb per oz range, fluctuating there for nearly half a century (from the 1960s-70s to 2016). After 2008, the orgy of serial QE (Quantitative Easing) led to severe distortions not only in the ⚖️ Gold/Uranium Ratio , but also in the ⚖️ Gold/Silver Ratio , ⚖️ Gold/Oil Ratio , and ⚖️ Gold/Sugar Ratio . 📊 Key marks highlighted on the chart demonstrate the volatility: 🔴 1976–78 (Ratio ≈3.5): At the peak of the first nuclear boom caused by the oil crisis, uranium was at the peak of strategic importance ($40–44 per lb), making the ratio minimal. 🟡 2000 (Ratio ≈36): This was the bottom of the "nuclear winter." The market was flooded with weapons-grade Uranium (Megatons to Megawatts). Uranium was at its cheapest ($7 per lb). 🔴 2007 (Ratio ≈4.4): The second speculative peak. Explosive growth fueled by the realization of scarcity. The price of uranium rose by +2000%, reaching an ATH of $148, once again making the ratio minimal (as in the 70s). 🟢 2016 (Ratio ≈69): This is the absolute historical maximum, where uranium ($20 per lb) was most undervalued relative to gold and the US dollar. This was the point of maximum strategic undervaluation. 🔴 2024 (Ratio ≈20): Since the Covid hysteria, the ratio sharply recovered to its normal historical values, first to the (🟡yellow) 35 area, and then down to 20:1. During this time, uranium prices rose by +500% from the $17.5 low (in 2016) to the $106 high (in 2024). After such a sharp rise, a correction in uranium prices followed from the 2024 peaks, with the ratio expanding again from 20 toward the 40-55 lb per oz area. 🟢 Forecast for 2026–2027 (Ratio ≈60): A temporary pullback. It is expected that against the backdrop of a global recession (2025–2026) and the ongoing correction (from $106 toward $50 per lb), uranium prices—along with gold—may temporarily decline. The ratio will expand again toward the borders of "cheap" uranium at 55–70:1 . The projected phase is a strategic "golden opportunity" to acquire the asset before the new cycle of atomic explosive growth. 🔴 Forecast to 2035–2040 (Ratio 5-20): The Culmination. In the 8–15 year horizon, when SMRs begin mass-powering Data Centers, the deficit will become critical and the hype (similar to today's AI) will hit its peak. The Au/U ratio will first return to its historically "fair" yellow 30-40, and then enter the red 5–20:1 range. 🧮 Technical Justification of Long-Term Targets Let’s solve this math problem using the formula: A/B = X Where X is the unknown future price of uranium in USD, A is the expected price of gold, and B is the expected Gold/Uranium ratio. If we conservatively assume that gold rises to $8,000 by 2035 (which is only +80-100% from current levels), and the Au/U ratio returns to 10–20:1, we get a uranium price in the $400–800 per lb range. If, at the culmination of the explosive growth, the GOLD/Uranium Ratio hits 5:1 (as observed in the final growth stages of 1977 and 2007), the price of U3O8 would reach $1,600 per lb. Therefore, long-term forecasts with bold targets of $500, $1,000, and even $2,500 per lb are not outrageous or impossible. Consequently, the projected peak of the new growth cycle should be expected within the red zone (5-20), defined as the "expensive" uranium range relative to gold. This is simply mathematical confirmation that amidst rising inflation, severe scarcity, global logistics issues, ever-increasing demand from Data Centers, and the inflation of yet another Technocracy bubble, Uranium will return to the red zone over the next 7-10 years, positively impacting the cost of U3O8 in US dollars. ❗️ Disclaimer: This idea is part of a larger article on uranium with a forecast for 2025-2050. To fully understand the context and the big picture, please refer to the main article at the link below: ☢️ Uranium: Defining the Future. 2025–2050 Vision & Forecast
OANDA:XAUUSD
by T_A_R_A_S
What to Expect From Gold on Monday?! As Christmas Holidays are just around the corner, we see that many instruments started to slow down and overall volatility dropped significantly. Gold remained relatively calm the last week too. The price formed a narrow horizontal range on an hourly time frame, respecting that from Tuesday. I think that we will see a continuation of such a consolidation after the market opening. Gold will likely stay calm at least till the release of the US Core PCE Price Index after the NY Session opening. Expect price movements within the range. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
10
XAUUSD 51st Record High of 2025 | Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutHistoric Context - A Record-Breaking Year According to the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Market Data released December 19, 2025: Gold futures have closed at record highs 51 times in 2025 Price has surged 66 percent year-to-date to 4387.30 USD per troy ounce This is gold's best annual performance since 1979 Silver has soared 131 percent in 2025, hitting 14 record highs Both metals are on pace for their biggest gains since 1979, the last year they hit this many records This historic context is critical for understanding current price action. We are not in a normal market environment. Gold is experiencing a generational bull run driven by central bank accumulation, geopolitical uncertainty, and monetary policy expectations. Current Market Context - December 20, 2025 Gold experienced volatility following the Federal Reserve December 18, 2025 policy decision. The central bank maintained its hawkish stance, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2026 than markets anticipated. Despite this headwind, gold recovered and hit another record high on December 19. The resilience above 4300 USD despite hawkish Fed rhetoric demonstrates the strength of underlying demand from central banks and institutional investors. Key Events This Week: December 18: Federal Reserve held rates steady, projected only two rate cuts for 2026 versus market expectations of three to four December 18: US Dollar Index surged following hawkish Fed commentary, initially pressuring gold December 19: Gold recovered to close at 51st record high of 2025 at 4387.30 USD according to WSJ December 19: CFTC COT report released showing strong speculative long positioning December 20: Price consolidating near 4338 USD within symmetrical triangle pattern Ongoing: PBOC and Chinese ETF buying continues despite record high prices Ongoing: Physical demand weakness in India and China as discounts widen to multi-year highs Technical Structure Analysis Pattern Identification - Symmetrical Triangle The 45-minute chart displays a textbook symmetrical triangle formation characterized by: Converging trendlines with lower highs and higher lows Decreasing volatility as price compresses toward the apex Volume declining during the consolidation phase Pattern duration of approximately 10-12 days Apex convergence point approaching within the next 24-48 hours Symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns approximately 55-60 percent of the time, but given the preceding choppy price action, this formation could break in either direction. Triangle Boundaries Upper Trendline (Descending Resistance): Connects the highs from December 12-13 around 4380-4390 USD Currently intersecting near 4355-4360 USD A decisive close above this trendline signals bullish breakout Lower Trendline (Ascending Support): Connects the lows from December 9-10 and December 18-19 Currently providing support near 4300-4310 USD A decisive close below this trendline signals bearish breakdown Key Price Levels Resistance Levels: 4355-4360 USD - Descending trendline resistance immediate 4380-4390 USD - Recent swing high and horizontal resistance 4400-4410 USD - Psychological resistance and previous rejection zone 4450-4475 USD - Major resistance from November 2025 highs 4500 USD - Psychological round number and measured move target Support Levels: 4310-4320 USD - Ascending trendline support immediate 4280-4290 USD - Horizontal support from December lows 4250-4260 USD - Previous consolidation zone 4200-4220 USD - Major support and psychological level 4150-4175 USD - Secondary support if breakdown accelerates Moving Average Analysis Price is oscillating around the 20-period moving average indicating indecision The 50-period moving average is relatively flat confirming the consolidation phase The 200-period moving average on higher timeframes remains in uptrend supporting long-term bullish bias A sustained move above the 20 and 50 MAs would confirm bullish momentum A breakdown below both MAs would signal bearish continuation RSI Analysis RSI on the 45-minute timeframe is currently neutral oscillating between 45-55 No overbought or oversold conditions present RSI is forming a similar compression pattern to price suggesting energy building for directional move Watch for RSI to break above 60 for bullish confirmation or below 40 for bearish confirmation Volume Analysis Volume has been declining during the triangle formation typical behavior before breakout Expect volume surge on the breakout candle to confirm validity Low volume breakouts often result in false moves and should be treated with caution Watch for volume at least 150 percent of average on breakout candle Fibonacci Analysis Measuring from the December low near 4200 USD to the December high near 4390 USD: 0.236 retracement: 4345 USD - Currently testing this level 0.382 retracement: 4317 USD - Aligns with triangle support 0.5 retracement: 4295 USD - Key level if support breaks 0.618 retracement: 4273 USD - Strong support zone Current price action around 4338 USD is testing the 0.236 Fibonacci level, a relatively shallow retracement suggesting buyers remain interested. CFTC Commitments of Traders Analysis - December 19, 2025 The latest COT report released December 19, 2025 provides critical insight into market positioning: Gold Futures Only Positions as of December 9, 2025: Open Interest: 432,569 contracts Non-Commercial Long: 268,485 contracts ( 62.1 percent of open interest) Non-Commercial Short: 44,599 contracts (10.3 percent of open interest) Commercial Long: 63,707 contracts (14.7 percent) Commercial Short: 326,286 contracts ( 75.4 percent ) Changes from December 2, 2025: Open Interest increased by 14,079 contracts Non-Commercial Longs added 7,154 contracts Non-Commercial Shorts added only 828 contracts Commercial Shorts added 10,791 contracts COT Interpretation: The positioning data reveals several important dynamics: Speculators (Non-Commercial) are heavily net long with 62.1 percent long versus only 10.3 percent short This represents a 6:1 long to short ratio among speculators - extreme bullish positioning Commercial hedgers (producers and merchants) are heavily short at 75.4 percent, which is normal hedging behavior in a bull market Open interest is increasing alongside price, confirming the uptrend has participation The continued addition of speculative longs suggests momentum traders remain committed to the bull case Warning Signal: Extreme speculative long positioning can precede corrections when longs begin to take profits. However, in strong trending markets, positioning can remain extreme for extended periods. The key is watching for a shift in the weekly changes - if longs start liquidating while price stalls, that would be a bearish signal. Physical Demand Analysis - Asia Market Weakness Reuters reported on December 19, 2025 that physical gold demand in Asia has weakened significantly due to record high prices: India Market: Dealers offering discounts of up to 37 USD per ounce to official domestic prices, up from 34 USD last week Domestic gold prices hit fresh record of 135,590 rupees per 10 grams Demand is roughly one quarter of normal levels according to PN Gadgil and Sons CEO Wedding season jewelry purchases dampened despite being peak demand period Demand expected to remain subdued as prices continue rising China Market: Bullion trading at discounts of up to 64 USD to global benchmark - highest in over five years This is the widest discount since August 2020 during COVID-19 pandemic Wholesale and retail demand described as incredibly weak by analyst Ross Norman However, ETF buying and PBOC purchases continue despite weak physical demand Other Asian Markets: Singapore: Trading from 0.5 USD discount to 2.2 USD premium Hong Kong: Trading from par to 1.8 USD premium Japan: Discounts up to 6.0 USD, though retail shops out of gold bar stocks Physical Demand Interpretation: The divergence between weak physical demand and strong prices is significant: Traditional price-sensitive buyers in India and China are stepping back at these levels However, institutional demand (ETFs, central banks) is offsetting physical weakness PBOC continues accumulating gold as part of reserve diversification strategy This suggests the rally is being driven by institutional and speculative flows rather than traditional jewelry demand A correction could occur if institutional buying slows, as physical demand is unlikely to provide support at current prices Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve Policy Impact The December 18, 2025 FOMC meeting delivered several key takeaways affecting gold: Interest rates held steady as expected but forward guidance was more hawkish than anticipated Dot plot projections showed median expectation of only two rate cuts in 2026 Fed Chair emphasized data dependency and willingness to maintain restrictive policy longer if needed Inflation concerns remain despite progress with services inflation proving sticky Labor market remains resilient reducing urgency for rate cuts Implications for Gold: Higher-for-longer interest rates are traditionally bearish for gold as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, gold has shown remarkable resilience to rate expectations in 2024-2025, suggesting other factors are driving demand. US Dollar Dynamics The US Dollar Index strengthened following the hawkish Fed reaching multi-week highs Dollar strength typically pressures gold prices due to inverse correlation However the correlation has weakened in recent months as both assets attract safe-haven flows Watch DXY price action for confirmation of gold direction A reversal in dollar strength would provide tailwind for gold Central Bank Demand Central bank gold purchases remain a crucial support factor despite weak retail demand: Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for consecutive years PBOC (People's Bank of China) continues accumulating gold alongside Chinese ETF buying according to analyst Ross Norman India central bank has increased gold reserves significantly Emerging market central banks continue accumulating gold as reserve diversification from USD This institutional and central bank demand is offsetting weak physical retail demand in Asia Central bank buying provides structural floor under prices even when retail demand weakens Geopolitical Factors Safe-haven demand remains elevated due to: Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with no resolution in sight Middle East tensions remain elevated with ongoing regional instability US-China relations remain strained with trade and technology disputes Global election cycle creating policy uncertainty Debt ceiling and fiscal concerns in major economies These factors support gold safe-haven bid and help explain its resilience despite hawkish Fed policy. Directional Bias Assessment Arguments for Bullish Breakout: Gold has hit 51 record highs in 2025 - momentum clearly favors bulls Best annual performance since 1979 with 66 percent YTD gains Long-term uptrend remains intact on daily and weekly timeframes COT data shows speculators adding to long positions with 62.1 percent long exposure Central bank and ETF demand continues despite weak physical demand PBOC accumulation ongoing according to analyst reports Geopolitical tensions maintaining safe-haven bid Technical measured move target of 4480-4500 USD if triangle breaks higher Arguments for Bearish Breakdown: Extreme speculative long positioning (6:1 ratio) creates correction risk Physical demand in India at one quarter of normal levels China discounts at 64 USD - widest since August 2020 Hawkish Fed policy supporting stronger dollar and higher yields Price has risen 66 percent in one year - mean reversion risk elevated Holiday liquidity reduction could exacerbate any profit-taking Technical measured move target of 4200-4220 USD if triangle breaks lower My Assessment - Cautiously Bullish with Correction Risk: The weight of evidence supports the bull case given the historic momentum and institutional demand. However, several warning signs warrant caution: Extreme speculative positioning creates vulnerability to profit-taking Physical demand weakness in Asia suggests price-sensitive buyers are exhausted The rally is increasingly dependent on institutional flows rather than broad-based demand Short-term (next 1-2 weeks): Neutral to slightly bearish. The combination of extreme positioning, weak physical demand, and holiday liquidity conditions creates correction risk. A pullback to 4280-4320 USD would be healthy and provide better entry for longs. Long-term (1-3 months): Bullish. The structural drivers (central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, monetary policy expectations) remain intact. Any correction should be viewed as buying opportunity. Targets of 4500-4600 USD remain valid for Q1 2026. Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively above 4360 USD upper trendline Volume on breakout candle exceeds 150 percent of 20-period average RSI breaks above 60 confirming momentum Ideally accompanied by dollar weakness DXY declining Trade Parameters: Entry: 4365-4370 USD on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 4330 USD below triangle midpoint Target 1: 4400-4410 USD previous resistance Target 2: 4450-4460 USD November highs Target 3: 4500-4520 USD measured move target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2.5 to first target Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively below 4300 USD lower trendline Volume on breakdown candle exceeds 150 percent of 20-period average RSI breaks below 40 confirming bearish momentum Ideally accompanied by dollar strength DXY rising Trade Parameters: Entry: 4295-4300 USD on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: 4340 USD above triangle midpoint Target 1: 4250-4260 USD horizontal support Target 2: 4200-4220 USD major support Target 3: 4150-4175 USD measured move target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2 to first target Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing should not exceed 1-2 percent risk per trade given current volatility Reduce position size during holiday period due to lower liquidity Use hard stop losses do not move stops further from entry Scale out of positions at each target level 33 percent at each target Move stop to breakeven after first target achieved Avoid holding large positions over weekend given geopolitical risks Monitor DXY and Treasury yields for confirmation of gold direction Be prepared for false breakouts wait for candle close confirmation Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 4250 USD on daily timeframe Triangle breaks down with volume confirmation DXY breaks to new highs above 110 Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 4410 USD on daily timeframe Triangle breaks up with volume confirmation DXY reverses sharply below 106 Conclusion OANDA:XAUUSD has delivered a historic performance in 2025 with 51 record highs and 66 percent gains - the best year since 1979. The precious metal is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle near 4338 USD, setting up for the next directional move. Key Data Points: 51 record highs in 2025 according to Dow Jones Market Data 66 percent YTD gains - best since 1979 COT shows 62.1 percent speculative long positioning (6:1 long/short ratio) India physical demand at 25 percent of normal levels China discounts at 64 USD - widest since August 2020 PBOC and ETF buying continues despite weak retail demand Key Takeaways: The symmetrical triangle is approaching its apex suggesting a breakout is imminent within the next 24-72 hours Historic momentum (51 records) supports bullish bias but extreme positioning creates correction risk Physical demand weakness in Asia is a warning sign that price-sensitive buyers are exhausted Institutional demand (central banks, ETFs) is currently offsetting retail weakness Short-term bias is neutral with correction risk; long-term bias remains bullish Bullish breakout targets 4450-4500 USD; bearish breakdown targets 4250-4280 USD Risk management is critical given extreme positioning and holiday liquidity conditions The optimal approach is to wait for confirmed breakout with volume rather than anticipating direction. Given the extreme speculative positioning, any breakdown could trigger rapid profit-taking. Conversely, a breakout to new highs could accelerate as shorts cover. Trade the breakout, not the anticipation. Let price confirm direction before committing capital. This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
TVC:GOLD
by officialjackofalltrades
GOLD Will Go Down! Sell! Hello,Traders! GOLD rejects a well-defined horizontal supply zone after a sharp impulsive push, indicating smart money distribution at premium. The reaction shows bearish intent, with downside liquidity resting below recent structure likely to be targeted as price re-enters a corrective phase.Time Frame 2H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
5
3Month and 12 Month Candels retest and RetrecmentThe 3-month and 12-month candle retest and retracement concept is a higher-timeframe market analysis approach that focuses on how price reacts after forming major quarterly and yearly candles. The high, low, open, and midpoint of these candles function as critical structural levels that often act as magnets for price. After a candle closes, price frequently retests these levels in subsequent periods before continuing in the prevailing trend, reflecting institutional participation and liquidity rebalancing. Retracements toward these higher-timeframe levels are considered a natural and necessary process within trending markets. At the end of major sell cycles, a strong retracement is expected, as selling pressure becomes exhausted and liquidity conditions shift. These deeper retracements often target the candle open or midpoint and may mark the transition from distribution to accumulation, preceding trend stabilization or reversal. This behavior provides valuable context for identifying high-probability zones for long-term positioning and risk control.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Dr-Nat
Unlock RSI Secrets: Spot Overbought & Oversold Trades Like a ProThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100: Above 70 = Overbought (potential sell signal) 📈⚠️ Below 30 = Oversold (potential buy signal) 📉🛡️ RSI helps you avoid chasing highs or panic selling lows – perfect for Forex, Crypto, and Stocks. How RSI Works (Quick Calc) RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS)) Where RS = Average Gain / Average Loss over 14 periods (default). No math needed – TradingView does it for you! Just add the RSI indicator. Key Strategies 1- Overbought/Oversold Entries Enter sells above 70, buys below 30 – but wait for confirmation (e.g., price reversal). 2- Divergences Bullish: Price makes lower lows, but RSI makes higher lows → Buy signal. Bearish: Price higher highs, RSI lower highs → Sell signal. 3- Centerline Crossovers RSI above 50 = Bullish trend Real Examples Right Now Bitcoin (BTC/USD): RSI(14) *** In the chart you see, I have highlighted key areas including overbought and oversold areas, divergence, and also the center line which is colored yellow.*** Pro Tips Use RSI with other tools (e.g., support/resistance or MACD) for better accuracy. In volatile markets like Crypto, adjust periods (e.g., RSI(7) for shorter trades). Avoid trading solely on RSI – always check volume and news. Backtest on historical charts to see how it performs in your market. Add RSI to your charts today and level up your edge! What's your favorite RSI strategy? Share in the comments! 👇
Education
by Master_Hunter
9
A 10 Year Old Structural Roadmap to the 2027 BreakoutExecutive Market Thesis: Structural Regime Shift & Multi-Year Cycle Alignment The market is completing a transition from a multi-year consolidation regime into a confirmed bullish expansion phase. This conclusion is derived from the confluence of long-term structural integrity, institutional footprint analysis, and precise technical invalidation levels. 1. Primary Trend Confirmation & Structural Validation A decade-long series of higher lows has established a durable demand baseline, confirming sustained institutional accumulation and validating the underlying long-term bullish trend structure. This is not a speculative rally, but the maturation of a prolonged re-accumulation cycle. 2. High-Confluence Inflection Zone The current breakout originates from a high-confluence technical node: the intersection of a long-term descending channel resistance with key Fibonacci extension clusters. This zone represents a clear inflection point, denoting a confirmed shift in market control from supply to demand. 3. Fibonacci Validation of the Accumulation Base Deep Fibonacci retracement levels (notably the 0.618 and 0.786) have held across multiple cycle tests. This price action confirms the existence of a robust institutional accumulation base, providing a structurally sound foundation for the next expansion phase. 4. Critical Threshold: The 2026 Annual Candle The 2026 annual candle close relative to the 2025 baseline is paramount. It serves as the primary structural confirmatory signal. A decisive weekly close below this level would invalidate the bullish structure, likely triggering an accelerated downward move as major distribution cycles align. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is the key technical level to monitor for this potential breakdown. 5. Institutional Footprint at the Cycle Low Volume-profile analysis and price action at the "cup" formation low exhibit classic institutional accumulation signatures—characterized by elevated volume on absorption, not distribution. This indicates "smart money" positioning ahead of the public trend transition. 6. Forward Projection: The 2027 Handle & Breakout Thesis 2027 is projected to finalize the multi-year "handle" formation—a period of controlled consolidation designed to: Absorb residual overhang from late-cycle entrants. Allow for the distribution of trapped supply. Enable institutional conviction to build beneath the surface. 7. Strategic Entry Zone: Q3-Q4 2027 SEP 2027, concurrent with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, is identified as the final strategic accumulation zone before the anticipated structural breakout. This level represents the last high-probability, high-reward entry point for aligning with the new cycle. 8. Anticipated Resolution: The 2027 Expansion Trigger A decisive weekly close above the multi-year consolidation range in late 2027 is expected to signal the exhaustion of available supply and full institutional demand dominance. This event should catalyze the next validated expansion phase, marking the beginning of a clear, momentum-driven leg in the broader cycle. Risk Management Note: The thesis is invalidated by a sustained loss of the 2026 annual baseline (monitored via weekly closes). The 0.786 Fib serves as the final defensive line for long-term positioning.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Dr-Nat
USOIL What Next? SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 56.53 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 56.17 Recommended Stop Loss - 56.74 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILShort
by AnabelSignals
1
SILVER Set To Fall! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SILVER is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 67.212 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 66.355 My Stop Loss - 67.771 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
1
XAUUSD H4 – Medium-Term Outlook for the Coming Week Gold remains within a broad rising channel, but recent price action shows clear rejection at the upper trendline. For the week ahead, the focus is on a potential technical pullback, while keeping an alternative bullish scenario if the market fully accepts higher prices. PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN SCENARIO Wait for structural confirmation to sell the medium-term corrective move Key confirmation level: a break of the trendline around 4317 Trade idea: look for confirmation below 4317 to sell the corrective leg within the rising channel Technical context: price is trading near the upper boundary of the channel and showing rejection, a common setup before a rotation back toward lower value areas Position management: Sell positions should be treated strictly as corrective trades within a broader uptrend. If price fails to stay below 4317 and regains bullish structure, risk should be reduced and short positions avoided. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SCENARIO Trend continuation if price breaks to new highs and finds acceptance Trigger condition: a clean breakout to new highs with sustained bullish momentum Trade idea: prioritise buy setups once the market clearly accepts higher prices Technical context: successful breakouts often lead to range expansion, making short positions unfavourable KEY MEDIUM-TERM BUY ZONE Liquidity-based opportunity in the event of a deeper pullback Reference buy zone: around 4220 Rationale: this area represents a major liquidity cluster and a logical zone to monitor for bullish reactions during a deeper year-end pullback KEY TECHNICAL REASONS The dominant H4 trend remains bullish, but rejection at the upper channel increases the probability of a technical correction The 4317 level acts as a key decision point to distinguish between a genuine pullback and temporary consolidation The 4220 area serves as a value zone aligned with liquidity for potential trend-following buys MACRO AND NEWS CONTEXT Recent comments have reinforced expectations of future rate cuts to address labour market risks, which remains supportive for gold in the broader context. Geopolitical developments, including discussions around the next steps in the Gaza peace process, continue to underpin safe-haven demand. However, year-end holiday conditions often result in thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and less reliable price moves, making discipline and risk control essential. RISK MANAGEMENT AND WEEKLY PLAN Avoid chasing long positions near the upper trendline of the rising channel. Only consider short positions after clear confirmation below 4317, avoiding emotional top-picking in a bullish market. If price breaks and holds above recent highs, shift focus back to trend-following buy setups. Reduce position size during the holiday week and prioritise trades around well-defined key levels rather than extended moves.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
1