XAUUSD: Bullish Trend Remains Clear, Pullbacks Are Just a Setup Hi!
On the H4 timeframe, price is moving cleanly within a well-defined ascending channel. What I value most about this rally is not its speed, but the way the market consolidates before each breakout. After the previous advance, XAUUSD did not experience aggressive selling; instead, it entered a consolidation phase with shallow pullbacks of roughly 40–50%. This is a classic characteristic of a strong trend, where selling pressure is limited to short-term profit taking and is quickly absorbed.
Following this accumulation phase, price broke above the corrective trendline, forming a continuation pattern (pennant) and immediately triggering a strong bullish leg. This breakout pushed price deeper into the upper side of the trend channel, confirming a bullish continuation rather than distribution. From my experience, such “clean” breakouts are typically driven by institutional flows, not retail FOMO.
From a fundamental perspective, the current environment continues to favor gold. According to the Forex Factory calendar, the market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation and labor data, while expectations remain that the Fed will maintain a more accommodative stance, or at least avoid a strongly hawkish tone in the near term. Meanwhile, major outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters continue to highlight safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks and slowing global growth. These factors have limited the upside potential of the U.S. dollar and indirectly supported XAUUSD.
At this point, with price trading at fresh highs, I do not expect gold to move straight up. A more realistic scenario is a technical pullback toward the nearest support zone within the ascending channel, around the 4,45x–4,46x area, to retest demand. If this zone holds, it would provide a solid base for price to continue higher toward the next resistance area around 4,55x–4,58x, aligning with the upper boundary of the trend channel.
Wishing you successful trading!
