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Stop!Loss|Market View: USDJPY🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the USDJPY currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 156.203 💰TP: 159.844 ⛔️SL: 154.950 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: A key event for the Japanese yen in recent memory is expected this week: the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. A rate hike is expected, and rationally, this would be positive for the yen. However, markets aren't always rational. Technical indicators point in the opposite direction, suggesting further weakening of the yen. A potential buying opportunity could be considered near 156.2, the point of control (POC) since mid-September. Growth is expected toward 160-161. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅
Long
by StopLoss222
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Watching Reaction Zone for DirectionGold is playing out in line with yesterday’s analysis. After failing to hold the upside, price has rotated lower and is now testing the reaction zone. From here, watch how price behaves. A reclaim and hold above 4301 would allow another push toward 4334, with 4362 possible if momentum builds. If 4270 fails to hold, selling pressure could increase and price may rotate into the support area, where buyers may look to step back in. 📌Key levels to watch: Resistance: 4301 4334 4362 Support: 4270 4237 4185 🔎Fundamental focus: 🔥 Fireworks start today — A heavy slate of U.S. data is on deck today. Expect sharp spikes, fast reversals, and increased volatility. Trade lighter and manage risk accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
Gold 1H – Fed Chair Speculation Drives Smart Money Flow🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (16/12) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading in a liquidity-driven range as markets focus on today’s hot topic: NFP expectations and Fed rate-path uncertainty. Recent NFP previews highlight divergence between slowing headline job growth and still-sticky wage components, keeping DXY flows unstable. This environment typically favors stop-hunts and liquidity sweeps rather than clean directional moves ahead of confirmation. As a result, Smart Money is likely to engineer price into clear premium and discount zones before committing to expansion. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Post-expansion, consolidating after a CHoCH within a broader bullish context Key Idea: Expect a sweep into premium (4352–4354) or discount (4272–4270) before the next impulsive move Structural Notes: • Higher-timeframe BOS keeps bullish bias intact • Recent pullback reflects distribution/profit-taking, not a confirmed reversal • Equal highs above 4350 and sell-side liquidity below 4270 are clearly exposed Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4352 – 4354 | SL 4362 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4272 – 4270 | SL 4262 Institutional Flow Expectation: sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4352 – 4354 | SL 4362 Rules: ✔ Liquidity sweep above recent highs into premium ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Downside BOS with strong bearish displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4325 2. 4300 3. 4285 – extension if momentum accelerates 🟢 BUY GOLD 4272 – 4270 | SL 4262 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab below equal lows / dynamic support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand takeover ✔ Upside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4285 2. 4310 3. 4350 – extension if USD weakens post-data ⚠️ Risk Notes • NFP-related positioning can cause false breaks — wait for structure, not the first spike • Avoid trades without clear MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect higher spreads and volatility during the U.S. session • Reduce risk if entering close to major data releases 📍 Summary Today’s gold setup is defined by NFP-driven rate uncertainty: • A sweep into 4354 may invite bearish structure back toward 4300–4285 or • A liquidity grab near 4270 could reload bullish flow toward 4310–4350 Let structure confirm — Smart Money reacts, retail anticipates. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
6
GOLD surges after US jobs data, policy uncertaintyOANDA:XAUUSD made a sudden surge during the Asian session on December 17, jumping nearly USD 25 within just a few hours, reaching the 4,327 USD/ounce area before cooling off and consolidating around 4,320 USD/ounce. This was not a “clean” trend-driven rally, but rather a fast market reaction to a series of inconsistent economic signals coming from the US. This move followed the previous session’s strong volatility, when gold prices reversed multiple times after the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The initial reaction was a sharp rally, consistent with gold’s typical response to weak labor data. However, just minutes later, the market reversed as investors took a closer look at the broader picture: labor conditions were not excessively weak, consumer spending remained resilient, and the Fed had no urgent reason to ease aggressively. Labor data weak on the surface, firm at the core The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, beating expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021. This created a “misaligned” data set: jobs are still being added, but the quality of the labor market is beginning to deteriorate. This very contradiction drove sharp volatility in gold. Initially, the market reacted to the headline: higher unemployment implies the Fed may need to turn more dovish. But once flows calmed, a bigger question emerged: does the Fed really need to ease quickly when consumer spending remains solid? As a result, expectations for rate cuts in early 2026 remain relatively low, around 25%, indicating that the market is not yet ready to make a strong bet on an aggressive easing cycle. Monetary policy pulls gold between two opposing forces Last week, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the accompanying message remained highly cautious. Interest rate futures currently price in only two modest cuts in 2026, rather than a decisive easing cycle. In this context, gold — a non-yielding asset — is in a sensitive position: Benefiting from economic risks, noisy data, and policy uncertainty. But constrained by the reality that real rates have not fallen deeply enough to build a sustainable upside foundation. This explains why gold can rally very quickly in the short term, yet is equally prone to sharp corrections shortly afterward. The broader backdrop: inflation, consumption, and geopolitics US retail sales data for October were largely flat, showing that consumers are still holding up despite pressure from high prices and the impact of tariffs. This makes it difficult for the Fed to turn more accommodative and is another reason why gold remains stuck in a choppy trading environment. In the coming days, attention will shift to CPI, jobless claims, and the PCE index. These are not merely economic data points, but key puzzle pieces that will determine whether the low-rate narrative — the long-term foundation for gold — is truly being reinforced. Personal perspective This rally is not a confirmation of a new uptrend, but rather a reminder that the gold market is trading in a high-noise environment, where each data release can be interpreted in multiple ways. Gold is currently reflecting uncertainty in global monetary policy rather than a clear growth story. In such a context, large price swings are not the exception — they are the new normal. Technical analysis and suggestions OANDA:XAUUSD The dominant trend for gold remains upward, but it is entering the most sensitive phase of the cycle. On the daily chart, gold prices maintain a structure of higher highs and higher lows, moving steadily within an upward price channel since Q3 2025. However, the $4,320 – $4,335/ounce range is becoming a short-term distribution zone, where buying pressure is no longer as dominant as during the previous acceleration phase. Prices have approached this area several times but have yet to form a decisive breakout, reflecting the cautious sentiment of large investors. In terms of momentum, the RSI has moved out of the overbought state but has not yet formed a clear bearish divergence, indicating that the uptrend has not been broken, but is entering a consolidation phase, a technical correction. The current corrections are more of a "cooling" phase than a trend reversal. Conditions for opening a new uptrend cycle: The closing price clearly above 4,330 – 4,350 USD, accompanied by increased volume and volatility. The RSI returns to the region above 65 and remains stable, confirming the return of buying momentum. When these conditions converge, gold could enter a new sustained uptrend, with a medium-term target extending to the $4,450-$4,600/ounce range, corresponding to the upper boundary of the expanding uptrend channel. Risk of correction to watch: Losing the support zone of $4,245 – $4,215 (Fibonacci 0.236 and the nearest consolidation bottom) will trigger stronger profit-taking pressure. In a negative scenario, gold could retreat further to the $4,050 – $3,970 zone, which could be the convergence of the medium-term moving average and the equilibrium zone of the current uptrend. Cautious Scenario – Trading on Corrections If the price clearly fails at $4,330 – $4,350 and short-term weakness signals appear, consider short-term technical selling. Target: $4,245 → $4,200, with small volume, adhering strictly to discipline as the overall trend remains upward. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4392 - 4390⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4396 →Take Profit 1 4384 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4378 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4288 - 4290⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4284 →Take Profit 1 4296 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4302
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD ANALYSIS 12/17/20251. Fundamental Analysis: a) Economy: • USD: Last night, the USD had a technical rebound after US PMI data came in above 50. This caused a short-term USD increase, creating corrective pressure on gold, but it did not reverse the overall trend. Prior to that, weak Nonfarm data, rising unemployment, declining income, and slowing consumption continued to support gold prices. • US Stock Market: Moving sideways; capital has not exited aggressively → no clear risk-on signal. • FED: Still in a rate-cutting cycle → medium to long term remains supportive for gold. • TRUMP: No new statements or policies that could shock the market. • Gold ETF (SPDR): No significant selling recorded last night → ETF supply is not creating strong pressure on gold. b) Politics: • Global geopolitical tensions remain simmering → gold continues to act as a safe-haven asset. c) Market Sentiment: • Slight risk-off sentiment after PMI → the market remains cautious, avoiding FOMO. • Demand remains strong; recently India bought a net USD 10 billion worth of gold, supporting gold at elevated price levels. • With Christmas and New Year approaching, the market is likely to be quiet with thin liquidity. Reduce position size or stay on the sidelines if needed. => Conclusion: News last night only caused a technical correction after the previous rally (driven by earlier news), not strong enough to break gold’s bullish structure. The primary trend remains bullish. 2. Technical Analysis: M30 Timeframe: • Price is moving within an ascending channel. • Demand Zone: 4263 – 4270 acts as a key support area. • Moving averages continue to provide good support; no structural breakdown. • Supply Zone: 4350 – 4355 is a strong resistance area where selling previously emerged. => Overall Structure: Higher lows – higher highs remain intact. RESISTANCE: 4330 – 4351 – 4380 SUPPORT: 4288 – 4263 – 4237 3. Previous Session (16/12/25): • Gradual sideways-to-down movement during the Asian and European sessions. • Selling pressure weakened as price approached the Demand Zone. • Strong buying emerged after Nonfarm news, followed by a pullback after PMI data. • This suggests big players have not exited; the move was mainly a retail shakeout. 4. Today’s Strategy (17/12/25): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4392 – 4390 SL: 4396 TP1: 4384 TP2: 4378 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4304 – 4306 SL: 4300 TP1: 4312 TP2: 4318
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Signals_100pips
GOLD → Bearish Pressure Builds, But Confirmation Still RequiredHello everyone, At the moment, gold is being influenced by a relatively sensitive macro backdrop. The U.S. dollar remains firm and U.S. Treasury yields stay elevated, making capital flows into non-yielding assets like gold more cautious. However, these factors are not yet strong enough to trigger a decisive sell-off ; they are mainly causing price to stall and lose momentum. From a technical perspective , the H1 chart shows that gold has not confirmed a break of the bullish structure . Price is still hovering around the ascending trendline and consolidating after forming a double top near the highs. This reflects market indecision—buying pressure is weakening, but sellers have not fully taken control. Therefore, the bearish scenario is only activated if price breaks and closes clearly below the ascending trendline . If that happens, the short-term structure would shift from bullish to bearish, opening the door for a move toward 4,262 , and potentially deeper to 4,207 , where demand previously appeared. Conversely, as long as no breakout occurs , current price action should be viewed as consolidation or a corrective phase within the trend. Selling prematurely without a confirmed break carries higher risk and does not align with disciplined trading. In summary , macro news is applying downside pressure, but technically gold still requires clear confirmation. The rational approach right now is not to predict, but to wait for the market to confirm . Only when structure is truly broken does the bearish scenario become valid and actionable.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jasmine_Rojas
15
Gold Is Tricking Everyone Right Now-The Real Move Hasn’t StartedGOLD MARKET ANALYSIS – XAUUSD (H1) 1. Market Structure Overview - Gold is currently in a short-term corrective phase after failing to immediately break above the 4350 Resistance Zone. - The market has transitioned from impulsive bullish expansion into a controlled pullback, forming a range-bound structure between resistance and support. - Despite the pullback, the overall structure remains bullish, as price is still holding above the last major breakout base. This move is corrective, not distributive. 2. Key Support & Resistance Zones Major Resistance Zone: 🔴 4350 – 4355 → Previous rejection zone + supply absorption area. Highest High / Target: ⚫ 4381 → Liquidity magnet above range highs. Major Support Zone: 🟢 4255 – 4260 → Strong demand zone and reaction base. This range defines the current battlefield between buyers and sellers. 3. Market Scenarios Primary Scenario – Support Hold → Bullish Continuation (High Probability) Price continues to pull back into the 4255 support zone. Sellers lose momentum inside support. Buyers step in, forming a higher low. Gold rotates back toward resistance. 🎯 Targets: 4350 – 4355 Extension toward 4381 (Highest High / Liquidity Target) This matches the classic sequence: Pullback → Support reaction → Trend continuation Alternative Scenario – Range Expansion Failure (Low Probability) Only valid if 4255 breaks with strong momentum. This would trigger a deeper correction toward 4200 – 4220. No structural evidence currently supports this scenario. 4. Market Psychology & Liquidity Behavior - Late buyers are getting shaken out during the pullback. - Smart money is not selling aggressively volume is decreasing into support. - Price behavior shows liquidity recycling, not panic selling. - This is a textbook cooling phase before continuation. The market is pausing to reset momentum, not reversing. 5. Trading Bias & Execution Insight Bias: Bullish after correction No chasing price in the middle of the range. Best opportunities: ✔ Buy reaction from 4255 – 4260 ✔ Buy breakout & hold above 4355 Patience is required the expansion comes after compression. Gold is respecting its structure perfectly: Correct → Hold support → Reload → Break higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
Gold Is Not Stopping — This Is a Breakout Preparation, Not a TopGOLD (XAUUSD) — 4H MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Market Structure Overview - Gold is maintaining a strong bullish market structure on the H4 timeframe. The sequence of higher lows remains intact, confirming that buyers are firmly in control. - Price has already completed a strong impulsive leg and is now pausing just below the previous all-time high (ATH) a classic continuation setup rather than exhaustion. 2. Key Technical Zone - Previous ATH / Resistance: ~4380 - Price is consolidating directly beneath resistance, not rejecting from it. - The consolidation range is tight and orderly → a sign of strength. This behavior shows acceptance near highs, which typically precedes breakout continuation. 3. Bullish Consolidation Logic Inside the highlighted resistance box: - Higher lows continue to form - Pullbacks are shallow - Sellers fail to push price meaningfully lower This is bullish compression, where supply is absorbed while demand stays active. In strong trends, the market does not drop it moves sideways before expanding higher. 4. Scenario Outlook Primary Scenario (High Probability): - Continued consolidation just below 4380 - Minor intraday pullbacks holding higher lows - Break and acceptance above previous ATH - Expansion into price discovery → New ATH Projected flow: Consolidation → Breakout → Retest (optional) → Strong continuation Invalidation: Only a decisive H4 close back below the consolidation base would weaken this bullish outlook. Currently, there is no such signal. 5. Market Psychology & Conclusion This phase is designed to: - Shake out early buyers - Trap late sellers - Reward disciplined trend followers Conclusion: Gold is structurally strong, technically aligned, and preparing for a new all-time high. Sideways movement here is not weakness it is fuel being built for the next impulsive leg. When price refuses to fall at resistance, the breakout is already loading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
Bitcoin Faces a Major Decision Zone - Relief Rally 🔹 MARKET BRIEFING – BTC/USD (1H) Market State: – Bitcoin has completed a sharp corrective move and is now attempting a rebound from the local demand area. – The current price action shows a technical relief bounce, not a confirmed trend reversal, with price moving back toward a well-defined supply zone. Key Levels: – Support / Demand Zone: 88,000 – 88,500 – Current Reaction Area: 89,300 – 89,600 – Strong Resistance Zone: 91,500 – 92,700 This resistance aligns with previous breakdown structure, making it a high-probability reaction area. 🌍 Macro Context – Why This Is Likely a Range-to-Reject Setup – Fed Policy: The market remains in a data-dependent holding pattern. With no immediate dovish catalyst, liquidity expansion expectations are limited. – Risk Assets: Equities and crypto are both showing mean-reversion behavior, not impulsive risk on flows. – Liquidity Conditions: Recent downside move flushed short-term longs, enabling a bounce but macro liquidity does not yet support sustained upside continuation. Next Move: – A continued push toward 91,500–92,700 is possible as part of a corrective retracement. – However, unless price reclaims and holds above the resistance zone, the higher-probability outcome remains rejection and continuation of range-bound or corrective structure. – Acceptance above 92,700 would invalidate the bearish bias and shift focus to higher liquidity targets. Bottom Line: – This move is best viewed as a technical rebound into resistance, not a trend shift. – Bitcoin is reacting to liquidity mechanics while waiting for a clear macro catalyst to define the next directional leg.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
This Pullback Is Not a Reversal — It’s Fuel for the Next Leg UpGOLD (XAUUSD) — 4H MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Market Structure Overview Gold remains in a clear bullish trend on the H4 timeframe. The market continues to respect a well-defined ascending trendline, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows. The recent decline is a technical pullback, not a trend shift. Price is correcting within structure, which is a necessary condition for trend continuation. 2. Pullback Behavior & Trend Logic Every major impulsive leg has been followed by a controlled pullback, marked on the chart. These pullbacks consistently respect dynamic support and the rising trendline. The current retracement shows loss of bearish momentum, indicating sellers are corrective, not dominant. This confirms a bullish market rhythm: Impulse → Pullback → Expansion 3. Key Support & Resistance Zones Primary Support Zone: The highlighted green support area acts as a demand zone where buyers previously stepped in aggressively. Trendline Support: The rising trendline remains intact as long as price holds above it, bullish structure is preserved. Immediate Resistance: The prior high zone above the current range. Acceptance above this level opens space for continuation. 4. Forward Scenarios Primary Scenario — Trend Continuation (High Probability): - Price holds within the support zone - Forms a higher low - Breaks above short-term resistance - Expands upward following the dominant trend Projected behavior: ➡ Shallow dip → base formation → impulsive breakout ➡ Continuation toward new highs Invalidation Scenario: Only if price breaks and closes below the trendline with momentum would this bullish setup weaken. At present, there is no structural confirmation of that outcome. 5. Market Psychology & Conclusion This is where impatient traders exit, while smart money accumulates. Pullbacks inside an uptrend are opportunities, not warnings. The market is compressing energy inside structure, preparing for the next expansion. Conclusion: Gold is not topping it is resetting momentum within an uptrend. As long as the support zone and trendline hold, the path of least resistance remains upward. Strong trends reward patience — not prediction. Trade the structure, and let the trend do the work.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Matthew_TradeRFX
Silence Before the Break — Gold Is Charging for a New ATHGOLD (XAUUSD) — 1H MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Market Structure Gold remains in a clear bullish structure on the 1H timeframe. After the strong impulsive move up, price has shifted into a horizontal accumulation phase, forming a tight range below the old ATH. This is not distribution structure still holds higher lows, and no major support has been broken. 2. Accumulation Zone Insight The highlighted box represents a classic accumulation zone: - Price is moving sideways after an impulse - Volatility is contracting - Sellers fail to push price lower - Buyers absorb supply quietly This behavior typically precedes range expansion, not reversal. 3. Key Levels - Accumulation Support: Lower boundary of the box must hold for bullish bias - Range High / Trigger Zone: Upper boundary of the box - Major Target: Old ATH around 4380+ Acceptance above the range high will confirm breakout strength. 4. Expected Scenarios Primary Scenario (High Probability): - Price continues compressing inside the range - Forms a higher low within the accumulation zone - Breaks out of the range high - Breaks old ATH → Price discovery mode Projected flow: - Range → Breakout → Retest (optional) → Expansion Invalidation: - Only if price breaks and holds below the accumulation support does this bullish setup weaken. Currently, there is no structural confirmation of that. 5. Market Psychology & Conclusion This phase traps impatient traders and rewards disciplined ones. Sideways price action at highs is a sign of strength, not weakness. Conclusion: Gold is consolidating below ATH to build liquidity for the next impulsive leg. Once the range breaks, continuation toward new all-time highs becomes the dominant path. Strong moves are born in quiet ranges — wait for structure, not emotion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Matthew_TradeRFX
3
Gold Is Losing Momentum — Distribution, Not a PullbackMARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (1H) Market State: Gold has failed to break and hold above the major resistance zone, triggering a clear momentum rollover. The recent structure is no longer a healthy pullback it is distribution after exhaustion. Technical: – Price formed a rounded top under resistance, signaling buyer fatigue. – Breakdown below the fast EMA, followed by rejection at the mid EMA, confirms trend deceleration. – Structure shifted from higher highs to lower highs, validating short-term bearish control. Key Levels: – Resistance Zone: 4,330 – 4,360 – Immediate Supply / Rejection: ~4,300 – Downside Target / Demand: 4,180 – 4,200 Macro Context (Why This Matters) – USD stabilizing after recent pullback → reduces upside pressure for Gold. – US yields holding firm, limiting non-yielding asset demand. – No fresh geopolitical escalation → safe-haven premium fading. – Market is shifting from “fear bid” to risk rebalancing mode. This macro backdrop aligns perfectly with the technical distribution pattern on Gold. Scenario Outlook Primary Scenario – Controlled Pullback: – Price continues to respect EMA resistance – Gradual bleed lower toward 4,180 – 4,200 demand – Any bounce into 4,300 remains a sell-the-rally zone Invalidation: – Only a strong reclaim and acceptance above 4,360 cancels the bearish thesis Gold is not consolidating for continuation. It is unwinding excess long positioning under a macro-neutral backdrop. Momentum favors patience on the downside, not chasing strength. What do you think about GOLD at this level?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Gold Is at a Decision Point — Hold the Pullback or Reject Again?MARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (4H) Market State: Gold remains in a broader bullish structure, but short-term momentum has cooled after repeated rejection from the major resistance zone. Price is currently reacting around the EMA cluster, a critical decision area. Key Levels: – Resistance Zone: 4,330 – 4,360 – Dynamic Support (EMA area): ~4,260 – 4,270 – Major Demand Zone: 4,170 – 4,190 Price Action: – The impulsive rally stalled under resistance, followed by a controlled pullback no panic selling, suggesting profit-taking rather than trend failure. – Current candles show hesitation near the fast EMA, indicating buyers are testing commitment. – As long as price holds above the EMA structure, the trend remains constructively bullish. Scenario Outlook Primary Scenario – Bullish Continuation: – Price holds above 4,260 – 4,270 – Higher low forms – Rotation back toward 4,330 – 4,360 resistance – A clean acceptance above this zone opens the path toward new ATH Alternative Scenario – Deeper Reset: – Failure to hold EMA support – Pullback extends into 4,170 – 4,190 demand – This would be a structural retest, not a trend reversal Macro Alignment (Why This Setup Makes Sense) – Fed still restrictive, but rate-cut expectations remain alive, keeping Gold structurally supported – US yields capped, limiting downside pressure – Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide underlying bid Gold is not breaking down — it’s deciding. This pullback is either the last reload before expansion, or a healthy reset into demand. What do you think about GOLD at this level?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
2
Gold Breaks the Triangle - Liquidity Targets Now in Sight📌 MACRO ANALYSIS REPORT — GOLD BREAKS THE TRIANGLE, BULLISH MOMENTUM ACCELERATES 1. Global Macro Environment - Gold is navigating a highly supportive macro landscape as global financial conditions continue shifting toward lower yields, softer inflation, and rising risk-hedging flows. The U.S. economy has shown signs of gradual cooling most recently reflected in moderating labor data and softer inflation prints reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy. These developments keep real yields capped, which historically strengthens gold’s demand profile. - In addition, rising geopolitical uncertainty and fragile sovereign debt dynamics in multiple regions (Europe, Middle East, parts of Asia) are reinforcing the global bid for safe-haven assets. Central banks especially in emerging markets have continued accumulating physical gold as part of long-term reserve diversification strategies. These macro forces combine to create a structural floor beneath gold prices. 2. U.S. Dollar & Treasury Dynamics - The dollar has struggled to maintain upside momentum as markets increasingly price in the likelihood of policy normalization in 2025. Although the USD remains broadly resilient, the loss of bullish follow-through has weakened its pressure on commodities, especially gold. - U.S. Treasury yields also remain near key cycle lows after a sharper than expected deceleration in inflation indicators. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non yielding assets like gold, generating a more favorable environment for sustained upside movement. Combined with slowing global growth expectations, gold benefits from these yield/dollar dynamics aligning simultaneously. 3. Liquidity Conditions & Risk Sentiment - Global liquidity conditions have improved subtly as several major central banks shift from tightening to neutral stances. China continues to inject targeted liquidity to stabilize domestic financial markets and support manufacturing. The Bank of Japan maintains accommodative conditions, while the ECB signals caution amid slowing Eurozone demand. - Improved liquidity typically increases investors’ willingness to allocate capital toward alternative stores of value and inflation hedges—gold remains a primary beneficiary. Risk sentiment across global equities is stable but not euphoric, leaving investors open to diversifying into metals as a defensive balance. 4. Gold’s Structural Demand Beyond short-term macro drivers, the long-term structural demand for gold continues to intensify. - Central bank purchases remain near multi-year highs. - Retail demand is being reinforced by inflation concerns, currency instability in several emerging markets, and elevated geopolitical risk. - Institutional allocation into commodity baskets is increasing after years of underweight positioning. This sustained structural demand provides a strong macro foundation supporting gold’s technical breakout. 5. Technical Confirmation Backed by Macro - The chart shows a clear symmetrical triangle consolidation, a pattern typically appearing during periods of macro uncertainty. The strong breakout confirms that institutional flows are aligned with the broader macro narrative of falling yields and rising demand for safe haven exposure. The current ascending leg reflects: - Strong trend continuation - Aggressive dip buying - Absence of major supply zones until 4365–4370 liquidity This aligns perfectly with the global macro backdrop favoring further upside movement. 6. Forward-Looking Macro Risks While the outlook is constructive, a few key risks warrant monitoring: - A surprise rebound in U.S. inflation could revive dollar strength - Any aggressive Fed communication could temporarily suppress gold’s momentum - Rapid easing in geopolitical tensions could reduce haven flows However, none of these risks have materialized convincingly, allowing gold to maintain its bullish structure. 📈 Final Outlook Gold’s breakout is supported not only by technical strength but also by a robust macro foundation: softening yields, a stalling dollar, central bank buying, improving liquidity, and persistent geopolitical risk. As long as price maintains its higher-low structure and remains above channel support, the path toward the next major liquidity cluster at 4365–4370 remains firmly intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
8
Massive Cup & Handle on Silver could take price to $722 by 2046Could also reach that full breakout target much sooner to but the trajectory of the measured mvoe line were it to validate the breakout above the rimline around the arbitrary spot I placed it at has the end of the measured move line in the year 2046. With the right scenario playing out on the global stage a price like that is possible much sooner even, and there’s also always the chance that we go past that timeframe without hitting the full target just yet either but that happens less often than when it hits the target beforehand. *not financial advice*
OANDA:XAGUSD
by DrDovetail
3
This Gold Drop Is a Trap — Smart Money Is Waiting Right HereMARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (1H) Market State: Gold is in a controlled corrective phase after failing to hold above the recent high. Price is now compressing toward a key demand zone, with momentum slowing rather than accelerating lower. This is not panic selling it’s positioning ahead of a macro catalyst. Structure Read: – Clear lower highs under a descending trendline → short-term bearish pressure – Price is approaching a major reaction level (~4,205 – 4,215) – This zone aligns with previous structure + demand, making it a decision point, not an automatic breakdown Key Levels: – Resistance: ~4,315 – 4,320 – Current Price Area: ~4,280 – Demand / Reaction Zone: 4,205 – 4,215 Macro Context – Why Non-Farm Matters Here – NFP is the next major volatility trigger for USD and yields – Market is currently flat positioning, waiting for labor data confirmation – A weaker NFP → USD softens → Gold likely reacts sharply from demand – A strong NFP → brief downside liquidity sweep possible, but still into major demand This explains the compression and hesitation on the chart — institutions are waiting, not exiting. Scenario Outlook Primary Scenario – Reaction then Expansion (Post-NFP): – Price sweeps liquidity into 4,205 – 4,215 – Holds structure – Sharp reaction higher toward 4,315 – 4,320 – Break above opens room for trend continuation Alternative Scenario – Deeper Shakeout: – Only a clean acceptance below 4,200 – Would delay bullish continuation, not invalidate the larger structure Gold is not breaking it’s waiting. The market is pausing ahead of Non-Farm, letting liquidity build before direction is revealed. Wait for Non-Farm. Let the data move price not emotion.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RexTraderSignal
Gold Is Coiling for Impact — Compression CompleteXAU/USD (M30) — Market Update Gold is currently compressing inside a rising wedge / symmetrical compression, exactly as illustrated on the chart. After the strong impulsive rally earlier, price has transitioned into a controlled consolidation phase, forming higher lows against a slightly descending cap a classic pre-breakout structure. Key Levels From the Chart Current Price: ~4,286 Ascending Support (Compression Base): 4,270 – 4,280 → Buyers continue to defend this zone aggressively. Descending Resistance (Range Cap): 4,340 – 4,350 → Multiple rejections confirm supply is present but weakening. Upside Liquidity Target: 4,380 – 4,385 → This is the next major liquidity cluster once a bullish breakout occurs. Bearish Alternative (Fake Break Scenario): A failure to hold above 4,270 could trigger a liquidity sweep toward 4,220 – 4,230 before any meaningful reversal. Structure & Expectation Price action inside the wedge shows volatility compression, not distribution. Each dip is being bought at higher levels → bullish pressure building. The longer price coils inside this structure, the stronger the eventual breakout. The primary bias remains bullish breakout, with the downside path acting as a secondary liquidity trap scenario.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
What Fibonacci trying to tell us !!!!!!In the markets, the Fibonacci spiral isn't just a pattern—it's an engine of momentum. It reveals where price action compresses, aligns, and ultimately explodes. Think of a consolidation near a key Fibonacci level (like the 61.8% or 38.2% retracement) as the spiral winding tighter. This isn't random noise; it's energy being stored, a structural reformation where the market's natural growth geometry reasserts itself. The moment price breaks decisively from this zone, it triggers the spiral's accelerating phase. This is why Fibonacci structures are powerful tools for identifying the launch point of sharp, impulsive moves—not for forecasting slow, grinding trends. They pinpoint where potential energy converts to kinetic momentum, offering a high-probability entry for capturing rapid expansion.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Dr-Nat
The Great Channel: The Great Reset from 9.5A Once-in-a-Decade Market Opportunity The Great Channel thesis presents a compelling long-term market structure that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. From a macro-technical perspective, current price action suggests we may be trading at, or extremely close to, the lowest valuation level we are likely to witness over the next decade. Even the next cyclical low, should it occur, may still print at levels higher than today’s price. This outcome is not guaranteed, but it represents one of the most probable scenarios on the table and one that now carries more conviction than ever before. The concept of the Great Channel first emerged in 2024 as a theoretical framework; however, evolving market behavior indicates that it may now be transitioning from hypothesis into structural reality. If confirmed, this channel has the potential to reprice the market into entirely new regimes. Importantly, this structure does not conflict with the broader cup-and-handle formation that many long-term participants are tracking. On the contrary, the two patterns may be complementary, with the cup-and-handle reaching full maturity only after a potential Great Reset event. Such a reset could occur near the extreme boundaries of the Great Channel, precisely where asymmetric risk-to-reward conditions are most favorable. From this vantage point, current levels may represent the most attractive strategic accumulation zone we are likely to see for many years to come. For patient, long-term traders and investors, this region offers a rare alignment of macro structure, technical positioning, and cyclical timing—an opportunity that may not present itself again for a very long time.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Dr-Nat
XAUUSD: Bullish Push to 4333?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, FX:XAUUSD is eyeing a bullish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price forming higher lows along an upward trendline, converging with a potential entry zone that could fuel upside momentum if buyers hold amid recent volatility. This setup indicates a rally opportunity post-correction, targeting higher resistance levels with approximately 1:3 risk-reward.🔥 Entry between 4245–4255 for a long position. Target at 4333 . Set a stop loss at a close below the upward trendline or below 4230, yielding a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:3 . Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging gold's channel dynamics.🌟 Fundamentally , gold is consolidating around $4,278 in mid-December 2025, with key USD events this week potentially influencing direction through inflation and employment data. On December 16 at 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Situation report (including Non-Farm Payrolls with consensus 119K and Unemployment Rate at 4.4%) could weaken the USD if softer-than-expected, boosting gold's appeal. December 17 features Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET, where strong consumer spending might support USD but misses could favor gold. On December 18 at 8:30 AM ET, CPI (forecast 324.9) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (forecast 3%) are critical; cooler readings may signal Fed easing, pressuring USD lower. Also on December 18, Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET and Fed Balance Sheet at 4:30 PM ET could add volatility. December 19 brings Personal Income and Outlays at 8:30 AM ET, including PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge—soft data here might further undermine USD strength. 💡 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Long): 4245 – 4255 (Entries in this zone are valid with proper risk & capital management.) 🎯 Target: • 4333 ❌ Stop Loss: • Close below the upward trendline or • Hard invalidation below 4230 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: • ~ 1:3 💡 Your view? Will AUDCAD reject this resistance for a clean pullback toward 0.90745 — or will CAD weakness invalidate the setup and push price higher? 👇
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Master_Hunter
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