Commodities
GBPUSD (1H chart)_pattern...GBPUSD (1H chart)_pattern.
From my chart, price has broken down from the consolidation zone with a strong bearish impulse, so bias remains bearish while below resistance.
🎯 Downside Targets
Target 1: 1.3385 – 1.3370 (near-term support)
Target 2: 1.3355 – 1.3340 ✅ (my marked target area)
Extended Target: 1.3300 – 1.3285 (only if selling pressure continues)
⛔ Resistance / Invalidation
Resistance zone: 1.3440 – 1.3460
Bearish view weakens if 1H closes above 1.3460
📊 Structure
Lower highs & lower lows
Price below cloud / key support
Momentum favors sell on pullback.
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report to end the year we said we would only be looking for short trades and gave the levels above that we wanted to short from. Price didn’t quite hit our red box level but we got close and upon activation on the indicators and Excalibur we managed to get the trade we wanted, and what a trade it was!
We then update traders with the potential low to look for and the retracement trade long up into the red box which was also pin-point successful. As you can see from the chart, it was from there we wanted the RIP, again, level to level, point to point on the indicators for the short to end the week!
Another successful week, month and year in Camelot not only on gold but across the numerous other pairs we analyse and trade.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
With NFP this week and a lot of news to start the week, we can expect volatility as usual. Now add the geopolitical news over the weekend and there are chances we open with gaps on the markets. For that reason, we will say we’ll stick with our levels as they work well no matter the market condition, however, expect some choppy movement and potential for the levels to be completed straight away!
Below we have immediate support at the 4330 level and below that the bias level of 4320. It’s the 4320 region that needs to be monitored for the break downside, as failure to do so can result in a RIP from there and potential move upside to break above 4335 taking us into the 4355-60 region and above that we should be looking at the 4390-95 region. It’s just above that we’ve highlighted potential for a RIP as these higher levels are lining up with the red boxes and unless we get a break above, we could get the reaction bears will want to see from above for another aggressive move.
Now, the caveat. We do have a higher Excalibur active but we want to see how the market opens and how it reacts to the open. Based on the structure at the moment there is a chance for an undercut low which make support lower but, defence is in the way so let’s see how the market opens and wait for the price to do it’s thing. Once we have opening confirmation, we will know how to play it. That’s just the way the game is played team.
RED BOXES AND TARGETS:
Break above 4340 for 4355, 4365 and 4368 in extension of the move
Break below 4320 for 4310, 4304, 4395 and 4390 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
ETHUSD (1H chart)_pattern...ETHUSD (1H chart)_pattern .
From my chart, ETH has broken below the consolidation zone and made a strong bearish impulse, so bias stays bearish while below resistance.
🎯 Downside Targets
Target 1: 3,020 – 3,000 (psychological + first demand)
Target 2: 2,980 – 2,950 ✅ (my marked target area)
Extended Target: 2,900 – 2,880 (only if selling pressure continues)
⛔ Resistance / Invalidation
Resistance zone: 3,120 – 3,150
Bearish view invalid if 1H close above 3,160
📊 Structure Summary
Trendline broken
Price below cloud / key support
Lower highs → continuation setup
👉 Plan: Sell on pullbacks toward 3,120–3,140 with confirmation.
BTCUSD (2H chart) – pattern.BTCUSD (2H chart) – pattern.
(Educational view, not financial advice)
From my chart, price has broken down from the support zone and momentum is bearish.
🎯 Downside Targets
Target 1: 89,000 – 88,800 (minor support / reaction zone)
Target 2: 87,800 – 87,500 (strong support, marked as target area on my chart)
Extended Target: 86,800 – 86,500 (only if strong selling continues)
⛔ Resistance / Invalidation
Resistance: 91,200 – 91,500
If price closes above 91.5k on 2H, bearish view becomes weak.
📌 Market Structure
Lower highs + strong bearish candle
Price below cloud / key support
Bias remains sell on pullback unless structure changes.
Can we force XAUUSD to a new height📌 My Entry Explained — GOLD Trade Snapshot
🧠 What I Was Looking At
In this screenshot, I chose my entry point by watching how price was behaving around key technical levels (like support, resistance, and recent swings). I didn’t just jump in — I waited for signs that the market was ready to move in the direction I wanted.
🔍 Why I Entered There
Before taking the trade, I likely saw something like:
Price reaction at a relevant zone (it could be a bounce or retest after a drop),
Confirmation setup on a lower timeframe (e.g., a rejection wick or breakout of a small structure),
Liquidity sweep or a shift in structure that suggested buyers were stepping in.
In simple terms: I waited for the price to show strength after weakening, and only then I entered, instead of guessing.
📉 How I Managed Risk
Before I clicked enter, I already had:
✔ A stop-loss level (where I would exit if the market went against me),
✔ A take-profit plan (where I expect price to go if my view is correct), this helps me keep a clear risk-to-reward ratio.
This disciplined approach is what keeps a setup from being “just a guess”. it’s a structured trade based on price behavior and clear rules.
🧠 Why This Entry Matters Personally
Rather than reacting emotionally or trying to “predict,” I entered the trade only after confirmation from the chart structure, this helps me trade with more consistency and confidence.
XAUUSD | 4H | Bullish Channel Continuation SetupGold is trading inside a well-defined ascending channel and continues to respect higher highs & higher lows. After the recent impulsive move up, price is now showing a healthy pullback near the mid-channel / trendline support.
🔹 Structure remains bullish
🔹 Pullback looks corrective, not a trend reversal
🔹 Expecting a dip → base → continuation toward the upper channel
🔹 Key support zone marked below
🔹 Invalidation only on a clean breakdown of the rising channel
Possible scenarios:
1️⃣ Shallow pullback → strong continuation breakout
2️⃣ Deeper retracement to trendline support → bounce & rally
📌 This is a price-action based view, not financial advice.
Always wait for confirmation and manage risk properly.
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP
This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
After the week we’ve had in Camelot I wouldn’t want to ruin the stats by getting involved in an NFP move that looks like it can go either way. We’re in a small range so a breakout is very likely and the move is likely to be extreme.
I have a bias level of 4490 which needs to break upside and 4470 which needs to break downside. We still have the opening gap from earlier in the week which a lot of traders have been chasing while the market has been stretching. Sentiment isn’t convincing at the moment so a push down is on the cards but is this forming a swing to attempt one more high again?
For the above reason, we’ll look at the red boxes above or below discounting the immediate ones and the potential range. We’ll monitor the higher ones for RIPs and potential reversals, and the lower ones for tap and bounces for the scalps.
RED BOXES:
Break above 4490 for 4501, 4509 and 4520 in extension of the move
Break below 4470 for 4459, 4453, 4442 and 4437 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Silver Futures Breakdown: From Trend Expansion to DistributionWhy Silver Is Moving: Economic Cycle, Correlation, and Sentiment
Silver futures (SI), represent one of the most dynamic markets within the precious metals complex. Silver occupies a unique position because it functions as both a monetary metal and an industrial input. This dual role makes it sensitive not only to inflation expectations, real interest rates, and currency movements, but also to manufacturing demand, energy transition themes, and broader economic growth expectations. Silver is closely correlated with Gold futures, or GC, due to their shared role as hard assets and hedges against currency debasement. However, silver often exhibits higher beta behavior than gold, meaning it tends to lag initially and then accelerate more aggressively once capital rotates into the metals complex.
From an economic cycle perspective, silver typically performs best during late cycle and early easing environments. These are periods when growth concerns rise, central banks signal accommodative policy, and investors seek both inflation protection and upside convexity.
Sentiment toward silver has shifted meaningfully over the past several months. The recent bull uptrend has been driven by a combination of persistent inflation pressures, expectations for lower real rates, strong industrial demand tied to electrification, and increasing speculative participation. Over the past month specifically, silver prices have been influenced by renewed weakness in the US dollar, falling real yields, and a broader rotation into commodities. The general sentiment remains constructive, with market participants viewing pullbacks as opportunities rather than trend reversals.
What the Market has done
• The market consolidated between the 46.325 and 54.285 area from October through the end of November 2025, forming a well defined balanced region.
• Buyers initiated out of this range causing an imbalance to the upside.
• The market trended higher throughout most of December, displaying persistent initiative buying that resulted in new all time highs at 82.670.
• Over the past two weeks, volatility has expanded, with more pronounced two way rotations.
• This activity has led to the development of a distribution range bounded by 82.32 on the upside and 69.640 on the downside.
What to expect in the coming week
The key levels to watch are the current range high and range low at 82.32 and 69.64. These boundaries define the active distribution and will be critical in determining the next move of the market.
Neutral scenario
• Given the increase in volatility following the strong bullish December run, the market may continue to rotate in two directions as participants work to establish value.
• Price could remain contained within the recent distribution range as both buyers and sellers test conviction at the edges.
Bullish scenario
• If bids are able to step up and hold the 73.96 area, which aligns with the developing weekly value area low, buyers may regain control.
• A sustained buyer response from this level could lead to a rotation back toward the all time highs.
• Acceptance above the 79.22 area, which aligns with the developing weekly value area high, would signal strength and open the door for a move toward 84, corresponding with the weekly one standard deviation high.
• Continued acceptance and momentum could extend the move toward 88, which aligns with the weekly two standard deviation high.
Bearish scenario
• If sellers are able to step down offers and buyers are unable to hold the 75.75 area, which aligns with the developing weekly value area low, the market may rotate lower to 70.58, which aligns with the distribution range low and the December 29 weekly value area low.
• Failure of buyers to defend 70.58, would expose further downside move to the 67.755 level, which aligns with the December 15 weekly value area high.
• Continued acceptance below 67.755 would open the door to a move toward the 64 area, where bid block 2 high is located and responsive buyers may attempt to defend
Conclusion
Silver remains in a confirmed higher time frame uptrend, supported by strong initiative buying since the December breakout and sustained acceptance above prior value. The recent increase in volatility reflects a transition from directional expansion into distribution rather than structural weakness. As long as price continues to hold above the lower boundary of the current range at 69.64, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with upside potential defined by acceptance above 79.22 and a retest of the 82.32 to 82.67 all time high region. A failure to hold the lower range would mark a shift in market condition and open the door to deeper rotations toward lower weekly references.
If you found this breakdown useful, feel free to give a boost, comment, or share your own levels and scenarios below.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
wVAH - Weekly Value Area High
wVAL - Weekly Value Area Low
wVPOC - Weekly Volume Point of Control
wLVN - Weekly Low Value Node
wHVN - Weekly High Value Node
GOLD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 4472.8
Stop - 4483.6
Take - 4454.5
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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[LONG] XAUUSDT - Shinning GOLD?Hello traders!
Gold is expected to move higher if it successfully breaks out above the resistance area.
Make sure the candle closes above the resistance before entering a LONG position.
Targets are already set — and don’t forget to place your Stop Loss accordingly!
Happy hunting! 🚀✨
Gold Outlook: Key Break at 4475 Ahead of U.S. Jobs DataGOLD | Market OVERVIEW
Gold edges higher as traders await key U.S. economic data later today for clues on the rate path. Focus is on December NFP, expected to show solid hiring with steady unemployment—potentially reducing urgency for near-term Fed cuts. Markets are also watching the Fed leadership transition, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Donald Trump may name a successor to Jerome Powell later this month.
📉 MARKET BIAS
Short-term bearish below 4475; direction confirmed by intraday closes.
🔼 BEARISH SCENARIO (PRIMARY BELOW RESISTANCE)
• While below 4475, price may pull back toward 4458
• A 15M close below 4458 supports continuation toward:
🎯 4436 🎯 4407
🔼 BULLISH SCENARIO (INVALIDATION)
• A 1H close above 4475 flips momentum bullish
• Upside targets:
🎯 4500 🎯 4520
📌 KEY LEVELS
• Pivot: 4475
• Support: 4458 – 4436 – 4407
• Resistance: 4500 – 4520
Silver Pulls Back After Double Top TestSilver futures bounced off resistance at $82.67 on Tuesday. According to our primary scenario, the next key move will be for price to break through this level, which would open the way toward the red Target Zone between $92.25 and $111.28. In that area, we expect the prominent top of the green-labeled wave to form, followed by a larger corrective move. Based on this outlook, traders could consider entering short positions within the $92.25 to $111.28 range, using a stop set 1% above the upper boundary of the zone. Alternatively, it’s possible that the green wave alt. already peaked at $82.67 and price is now correcting directly below support at $69.26. If this scenario plays out—which we assign a 35% probability—a direct pullback into the alternative green long Target Zone between $53.26 and $47.16 would be expected.
Bulls got deflectedBulls got rejected on their last move with the gap down on Sunday open, but after yesterday’s antics we have still formed a higher high after Tuesday’s bottom and are now in 2 scenarios until one is rejected.
Bull Case:
A.) We break micro ascending channel at $3.7. 4 hour macd and RSI are still in a zone to push further. Daily hasn’t even flipped positive yet and when it does we will see some real legs start.
B.) We retest $3.32 and head back up making an official double bottom and downtrend becomes easier to break around $3.6
Bear Case:
A.) We hit $3.7 but can’t break over ascending downtrend and retrace below $3.32
B.) We break below current micro ascending channel and continue down on current downtrend to $3.00 or worse
RSI and MACD on daily still has room to go down a but more.
Good luck all, we will reanalyze on Monday















