Strong news chain could push gold to retest 4300🟡 XAU/USD – Weekly Trading Plan (Nov 23–29)
SMC – FVG – Supply/Demand – High-Impact News Week
1. Market Context
Gold is sideways in the H4 accumulation structure, forming higher lows along the trendline.
Above are 3 important supply layers:
OLD FVG 1
OLD FVG 2
Large FVG 4220–4300
the price needs to sweep liquidity & hit the supply zone before creating a new direction.
2. Strong News Schedule for the Week
This week has a lot of USD news directly affecting gold:
Tuesday (Nov 25)
Core PPI – Retail Sales – PPI (4 consecutive red news) → strong volatility.
Wednesday (Nov 26)
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods → Core Durable Goods
GDP q/q – GDP Price Index
Core PCE (most important inflation news of the week)
➡️ This is the decisive day for the trend for the rest of the week.
Friday (Nov 28)
German CPI (affects EUR → USD indirectly)
🎯 News Conclusion:
→ Gold likely to fake move – sweep liquidity before running correctly.
→ Thin SL zones will be continuously hunted.
3. Key Levels (from the chart you sent)
🔻 SELL Zone (Supply – FVG)
4189 – 4191 (Main Sell)
SL: 4195
This is a strong reaction zone for the week.
4132 – 4134 (Sell scalp)
SL: 4138
🔵 BUY Zone (Demand – Trendline – SMC)
4906 – 4904 (main BUY scalp zone in the chart)
SL: 3999
→ This is the only zone clearly marked as BUY in the chart.
Psychological level: 4000 – 3985
If the price falls → strong reaction to form the weekly low.
4. Weekly Trading Scenarios
🅰️ Scenario 1 – Price retraces to supply zone before dropping (most likely)
Price is forecasted to retest 4132–4134 → 4189–4191
After hitting 4190 ± → potential appearance of:
Bearish BOS H1/H4
Strong reversal to 4050 – 4000
🔻 SELL Plan
Sell 4132–4134 (scalp) SL 4138
Main Sell 4189–4191 SL 4195
TP targets:
TP1: 4090
TP2: 4050
TP3: 4000
🅱️ Scenario 2 – Price dips before news then surges (kill liquidity)
If gold is pushed down before PPI/GDP news:
Best BUY zone: 4000 – 3985
Form a low → surge back up to test supply.
🔵 BUY Plan
BUY 4000–3985
SL: 3975
TP:
4050
4100
4130
🅾️ Scenario 3 – If 4200 breaks
If 4200 is broken by a large-bodied H4 candle:
➡️ High probability gold will move up to test large FVG 4250–4300
→ At that point, only look for BUY pullbacks, no more SELL.
Commodities
Gold Nonfarm: Buy OB 4030, Target Break 4111🔍 Market Context – November 20, 2025
Gold initially dropped nearly 70 pips at the start of the day but quickly rebounded sharply from the 4030–4032 zone, demonstrating strong buying pressure and a refusal to decline further.
The market structure on the H1–H2 timeframe is forming a classic, well-defined Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern—a quintessential bullish reversal pattern—signaling a potential upward expansion if the neckline is successfully broken.
📅 Key News Events Today:
🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
📉 US Unemployment Rate
🏛 FOMC Meeting Minutes
🗣 Speeches by Trump, Barkin, Williams
🧾 Initial Jobless Claims
⚠️ These events could trigger sharp volatility and will determine the confirmation or rejection of the reversal pattern.
📊 Technical Analysis
🛒 BUY SETUP – Primary Priority
✅ Entry: 4030 – 4032
🛡 Stop Loss (SL): 4027
🎯 Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 4039
TP2: 4047
TP3: 4059
💡 Rationale: Price bounced strongly at the OB + SSS zone. This is a crucial technical support area and the base of the Inverse H&S pattern. The objective is to break the neckline to trigger the uptrend.
🔻 SELL SETUP – Short-Term Strategy
📍 Entry: 4093 – 4095
🛡 SL: 4098
🎯 TP:
TP1: 4088
TP2: 4077
TP3: 4060
TP4: 4033
💡 Rationale: This strategy is only applicable if the price forms a false breakout of the BSL zone and reverses. This is an ideal entry point for quick scalping if the market reacts negatively to the news.
🔑 Key Price Zones
Buy Zone (OB + SSS): 4030 – 4032
→ Strong demand zone, the base of the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, confirming the reversal signal if held.
Breakout Neckline Zone: 4101 – 4111
→ The neckline of the Inverse H&S pattern. Breaking this zone will open up opportunities for a sharp rise.
Final Resistance Zone: 4133 – 4140
→ The final target if the breakout is successful and the bullish pattern is confirmed.
✅ Strategy Conclusion
🎯 Main Strategy: Priority is to BUY in the OB zone 4030–4032.
🩸 SELL is only for short-term scalping if there is a signal of rejection at the BSL zone.
🕓 Caution: Be careful entering trades near the Nonfarm news release time—wait for price action to confirm the direction.
Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🔥 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — BY PROJECTSYNDICATE 🏆
High/Close: ~$4,102 → ~$4,065 — tight, inside-feel week with price holding comfortably above the $4,000 handle. Flows look balanced: steady two-way interest, but no strong directional conviction as the market oscillates within a well-defined range.
________________________________________
📈 Trend:
Still bullish on the higher timeframe, but very clearly in range / two-way mode. As long as we’re capped below the $4,350–4,375 ATH supply block and holding above the $3,900s, the playbook remains “range-trade the extremes” rather than chase breakouts.
________________________________________
🛡 Supports Buy Zones
• $3,920–3,930 — key range lows / primary dip zone:
o Your preferred “buy low” area; recent reactions show responsive buyers defending this shelf.
o This is the first major liquidity pocket for range longs and a natural first target for shorts from resistance.
• $3,800–3,825 — deeper demand pocket / fail-safe shelf:
o Secondary, more extreme downside area where higher-timeframe dip-buyers are likely to step in.
o A clean break and daily close below here would suggest the range is failing and a deeper mean reversion is in play, not just a normal pullback.
________________________________________
🚧 Resistances Short Zones
• $4,220–4,230 — immediate range resistance / short-sell zone:
o Your core “short from resistance” idea; this band remains a logical area to fade strength.
o First tests into this region are attractive for tactical shorts, especially if intraday momentum is stalling.
• $4,350–4,375 — ATH heavy resistance block:
o Still the major supply area above.
o Any spike here is a fade candidate unless price starts accepting above it with strong volume and multiple daily closes.
________________________________________
🧭 Bias – Coming Weeks
Base expectation is continued range-bounce price action between roughly $3,920–$4,220, with the broader structure still nested inside the larger $3,800–$4,350 range:
• Preference to fade strength into $4,220–4,230, targeting rotations back toward $3,920–3,930.
• Conversely, buy dips into $3,920–3,930 for moves back toward $4,220–4,230, as long as we hold the $3,800 shelf on a closing basis.
• Invalidation of the “range grind” idea comes on:
o Sustained acceptance above $4,350–4,375 (turns it back into trend-up).
o Or a decisive loss of $3,800–3,825 (opens a deeper corrective leg).
________________________________________
🔝 Key Resistance Zones
• $4,220–4,230 — front-line ceiling; aligns with your tactical short-sell band. Strong candidate to initiate shorts on first, clean tests.
• $4,350–4,375 — prior ATH / macro supply block. Only flips from “sell zone” to “bullish continuation base” if reclaimed and held as support.
🛡 Support Zones
• $3,920–3,930 — primary range low and first major liquidity shelf; ideal first take-profit for shorts and main dip-buy area.
• $3,800–3,825 — deeper support; loss of this level changes the narrative from “sideways digestion” to “larger corrective structure.”
________________________________________
⚖️ Base Case Scenario – Range / Consolidation
Core view: Market continues to oscillate between $3,920–$4,220, within the broader $3,800–$4,350 band.
• Pushes into $4,220–4,230 are sellable for rotations back toward $3,920–3,930.
• Dips into $3,920–3,930 are buyable for rotations back toward $4,220–4,230, as long as structure and flows remain balanced.
• While weekly closes keep rejecting the $4,350–4,375 ATH block, the default remains “sell strength, buy clean range lows.”
________________________________________
🚀 Breakout / Breakdown Triggers
• Bull trigger:
o Sustained acceptance above $4,350–$4,375, with multiple daily closes holding above and that band starting to act as support.
o That would shift tone from “range trading” back to full-on bullish trend, reopening path toward and beyond prior extremes (~$4,400+ in your framework).
• Bear trigger:
o A decisive daily close below $3,800 converts the current “healthy sideways correction” into a deeper, more directional liquidation phase, likely targeting prior lower shelves and expanding volatility.
________________________________________
💡 Market Drivers to Watch
Even in a range, macro and flow catalysts dictate which side of the range gets tested first:
• Real yields & Fed path: Any hawkish repricing or upside surprise in data tends to cap rallies near resistance; dovish shifts / easing fears support the lower end of the range.
• U.S. fiscal / political noise: Episodes of stress typically underpin gold; temporary relief or “risk-on” swings can blunt upside and push price back toward range lows.
• Flows & positioning: After a massive secular run, fast money continues to fade extremes, locking in profits into strength and reloading near range lows.
• Cross-asset behavior: If risk-off hits and gold fails to catch a bid (selling alongside equities), expect deeper probes into the lower end of the range before strategic buyers step back in size.
________________________________________
🔓 Bull / Bear Trigger Lines
• Bullish above: $4,350–$4,375 (sustained acceptance; ATH block reclaimed and used as support).
• Bearish below: $3,800 (shifts from contained range to deeper correction regime).
________________________________________
🧭 Strategy – Focus on Trading the Range
Primary plan – short from resistance (core idea):
• Entry zone:
o Scale into shorts around $4,220–$4,230 (front edge of resistance).
• TP #1:
o $3,920–$3,930 — key range lows; logical place to close majority of the short.
• Runner / extension:
o Leave a runner targeting $3,800–$3,825 if momentum and macro tone turn heavier.
• Risk / invalidation:
o Hard invalidation if price accepts above $4,350–$4,375 (multiple daily closes and successful retests from above).
________________________________________
Alternative plan – buy low from key range lows:
• Entry zone:
o Stagger bids in $3,920–$3,930; add more aggressive size only if we see responsive buying and positive reaction there.
o Optional deeper add zone at $3,800–$3,825 for higher conviction swing longs if structure still looks constructive.
• Exit zone / targets:
o First target back into $4,220–$4,230; heavily de-risk or fully exit as we approach that band.
• Risk management:
o Cut or significantly reduce longs on a daily close below $3,800 or if price accelerates through that shelf on high volume.
XAUUSD 4H – Liquidity Map & Smart Money Outlook🌐 MARKET CONTEXT
Gold continues to trade within a bearish intraday structure, forming consistent Lower Highs → Lower Lows on the M30 timeframe. Price has been reacting strongly at Premium areas where Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) accumulates, while showing clean rebounds at deeper Discount levels where Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resides.
Current Market Sentiment
USD remains steady → maintaining downward pressure on gold
Smart Money prioritizes selling at Premium and accumulating at Discount
Midweek environment → prone to liquidity sweeps before true expansion
Bias for the day:
🔻 Bearish bias, favor SELL setups at Premium zones
🔺 BUY only at deep Discount with CHoCH confirmation
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (SMC + LIQUIDITY STRUCTURE)
Market Structure
M30 trend: Bearish
Mid-range equilibrium: 4110–4175
Premium liquidity zone: 4378–4380
Deep discount zone: 3882–3884
Imbalances & Liquidity
Major bearish FVG: 4378–4380
Mid-level liquidity pocket: 4238–4240
Strong SSL levels: 3996 and 3882
🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES (Clear & Compelling Explanations)
1️⃣ 4380–4378 → Premium Liquidity Trap – MAIN SELL ZONE
This zone contains:
Buy-Side Liquidity from previous breakout attempts
An unmitigated M30 Supply Zone
A major FVG expecting full mitigation
➡️ Smart Money often drives price into this premium pocket to hunt liquidity before reversing sharply.
2️⃣ 4240–4238 → Mid-Range Liquidity Sweep – SCALP SELL ZONE
A highly reactive intraday level:
Holds clustered stoplosses from intraday traders
Sits near equilibrium → ideal area for engineered fakeouts
Often creates sharp wicks before reversing
➡️ Perfect for quick SELL scalps with minimal drawdown.
3️⃣ 3998–3996 → First Discount Reaction – SCALP BUY ZONE
This zone includes:
A clean SSL cluster just below
A sensitive micro Demand Zone
A common CHoCH reaction area on M30
➡️ Great for fast BUY scalps with tight risk.
4️⃣ 3884–3882 → Deep Discount Reversal Base – MAJOR BUY ZONE
This zone is extremely important:
Sits at the structural low on M30
Contains heavy Sell-Side Liquidity
Aligns with a higher-timeframe Order Block
➡️ If price taps here → strong reversal potential, possibly forming the weekly low.
⚙️ TRADE SETUPS (Detailed Execution Plan)
✔️ SELL GOLD – Main Position
Entry: 4380–4378
Stoploss: 4386
TP1: 4355
TP2: 4300
TP3: 4240
Logic: BSL sweep → FVG fill → strong bearish rejection expected.
✔️ SELL SCALP – Intraday Liquidity Sweep
Entry: 4240–4238
Stoploss: 4246
TP1: 4215
TP2: 4190
TP3: 4155
Logic: Sweep of mid-range liquidity → immediate downward displacement.
✔️ BUY SCALP – Discount Reaction
Entry: 3998–3996
Stoploss: 3990
TP1: 4015
TP2: 4045
Logic: SSL sweep → quick intraday rebound.
✔️ BUY GOLD – Deep Discount Reversal
Entry: 3884–3882
Stoploss: 3876
TP1: 3910
TP2: 3950
TP3: 3995
Logic: Major discount zone → high-probability reversal area.
🧠 SESSION NOTES
Avoid trading in the middle of the range
Wait for M5/M15 confirmation (CHoCH + displacement)
Do not buy at Premium zones
Do not sell at deep Discount zones
Let liquidity sweep first → then enter
🏁 CONCLUSION
Gold maintains a bearish intraday structure, favoring SELL setups at 4378–4380 and 4238–4240.
BUY opportunities appear only at strong Discount zones 3996 and 3882, where liquidity pools support bullish reactions.
Trade like Smart Money: wait for liquidity → strike with precision.
Gold Week 32 Possible reversalGold prices are in a clear downtrend, with critical support at $3,287.628 and resistance at $3,379.874. The 'W32 POI 2H' on Aug 1 highlighted a volatile 2-hour period with a sharp drop and recovery, signaling potential support strength. Fibonacci retracement levels could play a key role in identifying retracement targets. Stay disciplined with risk management as you navigate these levels.
CRUDE OIL Will Fall! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL is reacting inside the horizontal supply after a liquidity sweep, showing early bearish displacement. If rejection holds, price may continue lower toward the sell-side liquidity at the marked target zone.Time Frame 2H.
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USOIL The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 57.97 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 58.98
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Why 90% of Traders Blow Their Account?-And How to NEVER Be One!What is Risk Management? ⚠️
In trading, it means evaluating, measuring, and reducing potential losses , while capital management focuses on preserving and growing your capital. The main goal is to ensure that even if several trades turn out to be losers, your entire account doesn't get wiped out. For example, always ask yourself before entering a trade: "How much am I willing to lose?" ❓ This helps maintain your trading psychology 🧠 and prevents emotional decisions 🚫.
Practical Risk Management Techniques:
Using Stop-Loss and Take-Profit : Always set a stop-loss 🛑 so the trade closes automatically if the market moves against you. Also, use trailing stops to adjust the stop as the market moves in your favor and lock in more profits 💹.
Position Sizing : Never risk more than 1-2% of your total capital on a single trade. For example, if your account is $10,000, risk a maximum of $100-200 💸. This is called the "2% rule" and helps keep your capital safe even after several consecutive losses 🔄.
Risk-Reward Ratio : Always aim for at least 1:2 – meaning for every 1 unit of risk, target 2 units of potential reward. For example, if you risk $100, aim for at least $200 in profit. This way, even if only 50% of your trades win 🏆, you'll still come out profitable overall.
Diversification : Spread your capital across different markets (like forex, crypto, and stocks) to ensure that risk in one market doesn't impact everything else. For example, allocate 30% to stocks 📊, 40% to forex 💱, and 30% to crypto 🪙.
⚠️This post is for educational purposes only.⚠️
What’s YOUR biggest risk management rule? Drop it in the comments!👇
Is Silver Setting Up for a Massive Bull Run? Cup & Handle SignalWith gold leading the rally by printing new all-time highs. Meanwhile, silver — often ignored — has also broken its historical level at 49.76 USD and pushed into a new high.
Last week, global liquidity weakened and silver retraced to 48.644, but buyers quickly stepped in and pushed the daily close back above 49.76, showing strong bullish demand at higher prices.
On the daily chart, silver is forming a clean Cup & Handle pattern. The price is currently consolidating within the handle, and a breakout above the key resistance at 54 USD could trigger a powerful continuation move.
Key points to watch:
✔ Precious metals remain in a strong macro bull cycle
✔ Silver successfully retested its previous high zone
✔ Cup & Handle formation is nearly complete
✔ A breakout above 54 could accelerate the next major rally
Silver is known for its volatility and explosive trends once momentum builds. Do you think a breakout above 54 could mark the beginning of silver’s next big run?
Gold 4H – Liquidity Plays Ahead of Fed Minutes & PMI Data🥇 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Outlook | by Ryan_TitanTrader
📈 Market Context
Gold continues to trade inside a controlled 4H consolidation as markets brace for a highly event-driven week: U.S. PMI releases, updated Fed guidance, and renewed debates over the timing of future rate cuts.
Recent data has shown mixed momentum — softer employment trends but steady business activity — keeping the dollar volatile and gold reactive near mid-range liquidity.
Institutional flows remain cautious, reducing aggressive positioning ahead of major macro catalysts. This environment typically leads to engineered sweeps on both sides of the range as Smart Money hunts liquidity before revealing direction.
Expect short-term volatility spikes, especially around U.S. session opens and PMI releases.
🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View)
• Price is navigating a minor bearish structure, forming lower highs while protecting deeper liquidity beneath 4020.
• The recent 4H BOS + corrective pullback suggests the market may generate a liquidity grab toward the discount zone before any strong bullish leg develops.
• A Premium Sell Zone at 4225–4227 sits above resting liquidity, making it an ideal region for stop hunts and short-term distribution.
• The Discount Buy Zone at 4010–4008 aligns with structural reaction points, unmitigated demand, and a liquidity shelf — ideal for accumulation.
• Mid-range liquidity around 4060–4080 may be swept before the market chooses a larger weekly direction.
🟢 Buy Zone: 4010–4008
SL: 4000
TP targets: 4085 → 4120 → 4175 → 4220
Rationale:
• Deep discount zone beneath 4H liquidity
• Confluence of demand + structural mitigation
• High probability of engineered sweep before bullish expansion
🔴 Sell Zone: 4225–4227
SL: 4235
TP targets: 4175 → 4120 → 4060 → 4015
Rationale:
• Premium supply above equal-high liquidity
• Favors stop hunt + distribution before correction
• Aligns with previous 4H rejection and imbalance fill
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS inside each zone before entering — avoid blind entries.
• Expect spreads and liquidity manipulation around news: US PMI, Fed speeches, and data surprises.
• Avoid trading 10–20 minutes before high-impact events.
• Scale partial profits at each structural target to secure gains and let runners develop.
✅ Summary
Gold remains trapped in a structured 4H range where Smart Money is likely to sweep one side before delivering a decisive expansion.
Discounted buys at 4010–4008 and premium sells at 4225–4227 remain the highest-probability weekly setups.
Stay patient, respect liquidity, and follow confirmation.
🔔 FOLLOW @Ryan_TitanTrader for more weekly SMC setups 🚀
Technical Analysis & Trading Plan for $GOLDThe technical chart for TVC:GOLD is currently exhibiting a compelling and potentially powerful pattern configuration. The primary structure is an ascending channel, characterized by a consistent series of higher lows and higher highs. Contained within this broader channel, the price action has also begun to consolidate into a symmetrical triangle. This triangle is identified by converging trendlines, where the resistance is sloping downward and the support is sloping upward, creating a coil-like formation.
This pattern confluence is significant. The ascending channel provides the underlying bullish bias, while the symmetrical triangle represents a period of consolidation and equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A decisive breakout from this triangle, especially on high volume, typically signals the resumption of the prior trend and can lead to a powerful, directional move.
2. Key Technical Levels and Trade Execution Strategy
Our trading plan is built around the anticipated resolution of this symmetrical triangle.
Stop Loss (Risk Management): A stop loss is placed at 4,200. This level should be positioned logically below a key support structure, such as the lower boundary of the ascending channel or a recent significant swing low. Its purpose is to automatically exit the trade if the price action invalidates the bullish pattern, thus defining and limiting our maximum risk.
Profit-Taking Strategy (Tiered Exit):
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,637.763 (0.382 Fibonacci Retracement) - This is our primary profit-taking target. The 0.382 Fibonacci level is a common and respected retracement zone where one can expect some resistance during a pullback. Securing profits here locks in gains and reduces risk for the remainder of the position.
3. The Critical Trigger: Managing a Bearish Move
The analysis includes a specific contingency plan for a bearish outcome. The 0.236 Fibonacci level at 3,946.106 is not a take-profit level but a critical trigger level for action.
If the price declines and closes below 3,946.106, it serves as an early warning signal. This breach suggests that selling pressure is overcoming buying pressure and increases the probability that the price will continue to fall toward our TP1 level at 3,637.76.
Therefore, a break below 3,946.106 is the trigger that validates the sell signal and activates our profit-taking strategy at TP1.
In Summary:
The current setup for TVC:GOLD shows a bullish structure (Ascending Channel) undergoing consolidation (Symmetrical Triangle). Our base case is to wait for a bullish breakout. However, this plan specifically outlines the strategy for a bearish move:
Monitor the 0.236 Fibonacci level at 3,946.106.
If this level is broken, it triggers a sell signal.
Execute the trade with a profit target at the 0.382 Fibonacci level (3,637.76) and a stop loss at 4,200 to manage risk.
This creates a defined, rules-based approach to capitalize on a potential downward move within the broader pattern.
Potential outside week and bullish potential for XLEEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for AMEX:XLE above the level of the potential outside week noted on 7th November (i.e.: above the level of $89.75).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the outside week on 4th November (i.e.: below $86.37), should the trade activate.
Potential outside week and bullish potential for VLOEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for NYSE:VLO above the level of the potential outside week noted on 7th November (i.e.: above the level of $179.10).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the outside week on 4th November (i.e.: below $165.05), should the trade activate.
Potential outside week and bullish potential for FENYEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for AMEX:FENY above the level of the potential outside week noted on 7th November (i.e.: above the level of $24.82).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the outside week on 4th November (i.e.: below $23.98), should the trade activate.
Gold Returns to a Sensitive Zone – Is the Downtrend Already DoneHello everyone, gold is undergoing a rather deliberate correction after dropping from 4,110. Price is now moving around 4,078–4,066 — low enough to make buyers cautious, yet not deep enough to trigger panic. I want to share my personal view on the most likely bearish scenario at the moment.
1. What is the market showing us?
On the H2 chart, price is sitting right at the edge of the Ichimoku cloud, supported by a green FVG and a thin buffer zone at 4,045–4,035. The sequence of small red candles last night resembles profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. It feels like the market is “offloading for comfort”, not capitulating.
The most notable area is the 4,045–4,035 support cluster:
this zone overlaps the nearest FVG and also marks the accumulation base from 19–20 November. It behaves like a natural stopping point — where price tends to return to gather liquidity before choosing its next direction.
2. The news factors pressuring gold
September’s NFP came in at 119k (vs 50k forecast), pushing rate-cut expectations lower. The USD strengthened, and the Fed gained more reasons to stay cautious as October’s report was combined into November.
At the same time, US and EU equities strengthened thanks to Big Tech leaders, with Nvidia’s strong earnings pulling capital out of safe-havens. The 10Y yield hovering around 4.1% and oil dropping to 59.5 USD further reduced gold’s appeal.
Overall, this is a news-driven pullback — a familiar “sentiment reset” after a heated rally.
3. The highest-probability bearish scenario (in my view)
I lean toward the scenario where price continues drifting toward 4,045–4,035 to gather liquidity and tap the FVG, then forms a rejection wick and rebounds toward the resistance zone at 4,095–4,115.
This is a technical rebalance after news, not a signal of a long-term trend reversal. As long as 4,000 holds, the market still has enough momentum for the next bullish leg.
Gold at a Turning Point: Will It Rise or Fall?As we zoom in and take a closer look at how GOLD is moving, one thing becomes immediately clear:
The market has just shown a powerful upward surge, but now something intriguing is happening. The price is compressing, forming a tight, small triangle, a sign that the market is building up energy. In moments like this, there are usually two potential paths, but given the bullish context, I can almost feel that a breakout to the upside is the more likely scenario.
What do you think? Do you agree with me?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments! And trust me, joining the TradingView community is one of the best ways to improve your skills as a trader every single day.
Just a reminder: this isn't financial advice, but rather my personal take on the chart.
Potential outside week and bullish potential for A1MEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:A1M above the level of the inside week following the potential outside week noted on 17th October (i.e.: above the level of $0.47).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the inside week on 22nd October (i.e.: below $0.415), should the trade activate.
Uranium Energy Corp Weekly Outlook (Count 1)Here is my weekly outlook on AMEX:UEC .
UEC is one of my bigger holdings, I've added at various times as shown on the chart (see green dashed lines).
In this outlook i am viewing the price action from the lows in Mar 2020 to the end point of wave (1) as a leading diagonal pattern. After that we have seen wave (2) and another wave 1 and 2 in the red degree (red wave 2 may not be complete yet).
Are we next going to see a breakout in red wave 3? the case for this will be helped if the COMEX:UX2! Uranium Futures chart plays out as predicted along with LSE:YCA & TSX:U.UN ...see my linked charts
More comments on the chart!
Note: My analysis is more focused on price levels as opposed to wave duration, so bear that in mind if you see a particular price level at a certain date in the future and think i'm rigid on both price and time.
WTI Crude Returns to the Year’s LowsIn recent trading sessions, WTI crude oil has posted three consecutive losing sessions, recording a decline of more than 4.7% in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady, driven by concerns over a potential market oversupply, especially with the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in December. Additionally, weaker market confidence has raised expectations of lower short-term demand for oil, reinforcing a sense of uncertainty in crude price movements. If this trend persists, it could result in stronger selling pressure in the coming sessions.
Downtrend Remains Firm
For now, the downward movements have maintained a bearish trendline that has persisted over recent months. So far, buying attempts have not been strong enough to challenge this structure. As the price approaches the year’s lows, the downtrend could become even steeper in the coming sessions.
RSI
The RSI indicator continues to show consistent oscillations below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the average momentum over the past 14 sessions remains predominantly bearish. If the RSI continues to decline, this could indicate stronger selling pressure in the next few sessions.
TRIX
Meanwhile, the TRIX indicator remains below the neutral 0 level, signaling that the average strength of the exponential moving averages continues to favor a bearish bias. As long as this sentiment persists, selling momentum is likely to remain dominant in WTI crude’s price action.
Key Levels to Watch:
$57 – Key Support: Represents the year’s low zone and serves as the main bearish barrier. A break below this level could reinforce the ongoing downtrend and extend selling pressure in the coming sessions.
$60 – Nearby Barrier: Corresponds to the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements returning to this level could trigger indecision and lead to a short-term sideways range.
$64 – Major Resistance: Aligns with the 200-period moving average and represents the most important bullish barrier in the short term. If the price reaches this level, it could revive buying momentum and challenge the current bearish structure.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
USOIL BEARISH BIAS|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL rejected the 3H supply after taking buy-side liquidity, producing strong bearish displacement. With order flow turning lower, price is likely to seek the sell-side liquidity resting at the marked target zone. Time Frame: 3H
LONG🚀
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