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Confirmation

Intraday Swing TradeThis is a quick trade. I anticipate it should hit soon. Profit target not far away, but since I feel it's a high probability setup, I suggest jumping in anyway. I'm a set and forget trader, but in this market, I'll do a confirmation entry. The only downside to confirmation is that you may miss out on the opportunity. My personal strategy, if price trades from the 113.417 area, the wicks protruding from my entry, I will scrub the trade. I move my entry to the real bodies of the candles to cut down on the risk.
Short
by MrBollinger
SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMESEnd of the bull run Global Equity Indexes: 1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing. - IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest) stimulus from the BOJ had risk sentiment increasing affects - though now in light of no new easing from the BOJ and many CBs shrugging off/ UK internalising the brexit impacts I believe this bull run is over. 2. Technically speaking we may see another week or two of sideways or +1% as the market awaits easing policy information from the BOE (6th largest economy), but past this and regardless of what the BOE does i think the upside bias will cease. BOE is only likely to inject 50bn over probably 6m+ which is a drop in the ocean relatively as the BOJ does 100bn+ in one month, so by mid august latest I expect risk-markets to turn sour and a 10% correction is likely. Confirmation the risk-rally is over: - During this bull run we have seen risk markets/ SPX make gains rather frigidly, one day up one day down has been the trend - rather than the usual breakout green green green rallies of the past - this to me indicated that the topside was cautious and reinforced my view that it was central bank driven (not equity market performance driven). Thus, Confirmation of the trend turning to risk-off will be consecutive days of risk markets falling (SPX/ global indexes) OR consecutive safe haven markets rising (Gold, UST, Yen) and the emergence of a strong negative correlation between the two assets will be a solid second indicator that the 2016 risk-off trend is back. Trading Strategy - a number of ways to play this one: 1. Short FTSE100 @6700 or 7000 (wait for BOE) - this is my favourite trade but has a few conditions. We have built some resistance at the 6700-800 level so here isn't a bad place to sell however i think we will get a better selling vantage point next week, assuming the BOE cut the bank rate 25bps. - The BOE easing should move FTSE100 up 3-4% in a few days into the 7000 ATH key level as easing boosts business conditions and a lower GBP increases FTSE company international competitiveness. The 7000 level is where I am aiming for FTSE shorts with sell-limit orders as 1) its all time high levels; 2) I like to fade central bank action since it is artifical; 3) the broader risk-run is over so FTSE will suffer with the rest of the market 2. Short US Indexes @Market - SPX is perhaps the best short ATM given it trades right at its newly set all time high levels and on the backdrop of the BOJ miss we should see some downside soon. 3. Long Yen @mrkt - in the immediate term my favourite trade I like long Yen (for 200-400pips) against USD and GBP, given the BOJ backdrop is most related to JPY markets. We have already we seen the risk-off transmission taking place in here as Nikkei sold off 2% after the result and JPY grew 3% but i still think in the immediate term e.g. 1wk we can see more JPY topside and Nikkei weakness - me prefering to trade the FX strength over the equity as the equity often follows as a function of FX strength. 4. Long Bonds or Gold @mrkt - for the medium/ longer term I like buying govt debt, particularly UK gilts (BOE QE increases demand) or Gold - Gold we saw move higher on Friday in reaction to the BOJ so it will be interesting to see if we can get risk-off confirmation run from this next week (look for 3/4 green days). Risks to the view: 1. US Earnings have outperformed imo on average this Q, so the risk-run may be sustained for longer than the 2wk window that I expect. Nonetheless, i think even this is capped at 4wks e.g. we should be in full bear mode by the start of September - look out for the confirmation, a run of 3/4+ days of consecutive safe haven gains is often all the markets have to signal to show
TVC:SPXShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
GBP/JPY Short IdeaThe GBP/JPY sets up a nice shorting opportunity after breaking a bearish wedge on the daily chart. The price made the pullback to the lower wedge trend line and is currently forming a Shooting Star pattern. This could be the beginning of a new impulsive move downwards. For more confirmation, traders should wait for todays candle to close and ideally for the candle on the next day to close below todays close, while not forming a higher high. This will ultimately confirm the pattern.
Short
by r00ky
1
Looking for a major retrace soonStill currently in a long position since $260 and waiting for signs of a reversal. We could either fade out here or go parabolic into the $300s. Considering the news catalyst, I think we will probably go parabolic sooner rather than later and meet resistance around the same place as last time, where I will start looking for shorts. If the trend stays healthy and volume isn't extraordinary, I may keep partial longs and wait for another breakout. Either way, the top of this channel looks like a good target for longs if you've been long. What happens after that is what will decide the overall trend. We will either make a higher low and continue up or crash down below baseline support, which is a bad sign. It all depends on the speed. If we approach $310-$320 sooner rather than later with large volume, then it's a short signal with a lower low on shorter time frames for confirmation. BTC donations welcome: 15kykEJ8EnPcpx2e4jpVRx3EVCeuSWEdx5
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MoonTrader
8
Entering our projected long with confirmationGBPCHF Price has been in a W-uptrend quite some time now. It recently respected W S&R and started a new daily uptrend (last couple of weeks). A few days ago we broke a triple tapped daily trendline. The Trade: Following our earlier projection, we now have a nice confirmation candle*, closing higher then the previous bear candle. This is an ideal spot to take the trade with a slight retracement. Our TP is projected at some very strong S&R, optionally u can opt 50% out at the pink line, which is less strong resistance. TP'ing higher probably isn't very profitable because a retrace from the blue line is most probable. *Note that with confirmation, the move is just a lot more probable. It's never a 100% certainty. I'll follow up price action during my trade also, and evaluate if it supports or hints for resisting the move. Update 28/04: Price is using 1.4923x line to come back down again. I'm looking for respects on previous S&R (the line at 1.4812x adjusted a bit to 1.4782x). Also I'm keeping an eye on our upwards trendline. Trade still looks valid, this week we'll know to run with smallish profit, or stay in and go for our TP.
Long
by Evild0er