Looking for a major retrace soon

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Still currently in a long position since $260 and waiting for signs of a reversal. We could either fade out here or go parabolic into the $300s. Considering the news catalyst, I think we will probably go parabolic sooner rather than later and meet resistance around the same place as last time, where I will start looking for shorts. If the trend stays healthy and volume isn't extraordinary, I may keep partial longs and wait for another breakout.

Either way, the top of this channel looks like a good target for longs if you've been long. What happens after that is what will decide the overall trend. We will either make a higher low and continue up or crash down below baseline support, which is a bad sign.

It all depends on the speed. If we approach $310-$320 sooner rather than later with large volume , then it's a short signal with a lower low on shorter time frames for confirmation.

BTC donations welcome:
Update: Target hit. This is where it gets interesting. Could still go up to $305 but overall trend is bearish.
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Update 10 March 2015:
Although there was a pullback, it was not the big one I was expecting. However, we are still approaching the trendline and we look like we may still get our major pullback. Staying in fiat for now and waiting for a signal. The market is very overbought on the 3d and volume is decreasing as we rise into strong resistance, all signs that we may be reaching a top here.

This was not a clear-cut parabolic run like the last few have been, but all the same, it may be time to think about closing those longs, taking profit, and sitting comfortably in fiat until the signal to short comes. It may still rise a bit further, but it's on borrowed time at this point.
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Update: I sold my longs at $279 for a nice profit and now waiting for either a rebound or a short signal. Not trying to guess what will happen next.
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blackswan MoonTrader
wise decision... when unsure it's just better to close your positions...
Thanks guys. I appreciate the support.
If you are right. And i have the money. I will give you some of it.
blackswan awais.raza.1840
he is one of the most sensible traders i observed so far... that being said bitcoin is still extremely high risk investment, make sure you invest what you can afford to lose..
agreed, see idea i just published were pretty similar on it :)
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