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BTC M2 LAG📊 Overview This chart visualizes the Lapse Legacy Fund System, a composite model integrating global liquidity metrics, macro-technical conditions, and the Hedge Fund Statistical Aggregate Index. Each component quantifies institutional bias, volatility compression, and rate-of-change dynamics to form an adaptive probabilistic signal engine. The system currently shows a synchronized SELL/SHORT bias across all analytical layers but we see M2 in an uptrend: Technical Layer: -1.00 → Structural weakness within intermediate trend fractals. Higher-TF Technical: 0.00 → Neutral higher timeframe bias, suggesting consolidation rather than acceleration. Macro-Economic: -1.00 → Liquidity contraction and cyclical drawdown in aggregate liquidity flows. Overall Signal: -0.67 → Weighted net bearish tilt in global risk appetite. 🧩 Interpretation Price Structure: Bitcoin’s price remains elevated within a mid-term distribution range following a strong parabolic advance. While the broader structure has not yet broken down, the series of lower highs on the Statistical Aggregate Index indicates declining momentum efficiency. Global Liquidity Correlation: The cyan and green overlays represent global liquidity curves. Historically, these lead Bitcoin by several weeks. The recent flattening in liquidity expansion hints at a potential stall phase or short-term correction window before further trending action. System Dashboard Readout: The composite system dashboard below the chart registers synchronized red zones across technical and macroeconomic components. Such multi-layer agreement historically precedes retracement events or trend rotations of varying magnitude. Equity Curve (Strategy Performance): Despite short-term volatility, the system’s equity line remains positive with a Profit Factor of 5.47 and Omega Ratio of 1.57, supporting the reliability of the signal environment. 📈 Scenario-Based Outlook Bearish Scenario (Primary Probability): If the macro-statistical score remains negative and liquidity stagnates, BTC may revisit support around the $89K–$94K zone before re-establishing directional clarity. This would align with prior cyclical liquidity drawdowns. Bullish Reversal Scenario: A decisive re-expansion in liquidity (green curve continuation) combined with an Aggregate Index rebound above zero would signal renewed institutional inflows, potentially re-targeting the $120K–$130K region. Neutral Range Case: If the system signals stay near zero, expect sideways mean reversion between $95K–$110K, acting as a volatility compression stage before the next macro-impulse. 🧭 Strategic Insight This model doesn’t forecast price directly—it quantifies systemic conditions driving capital flows. When the Aggregate Index, Technical, and Macro-Economic layers align, it often precedes sustained moves. The next directional pivot will likely be defined by liquidity regime changes rather than short-term sentiment. 🧩 Summary “The Hedge Fund Statistical Aggregate Index currently signals systemic tightening and weakening trend persistence. A temporary liquidity stall could prompt corrective action before macro liquidity expansion resumes.”
INDEX:BTCUSD
by QuantLapse
BNB rises after calmOn October 10, I watched the BNB 4-hour chart carefully. The market looked unstable, so I decided not to open a position, waiting for confirmation. That choice turned out to be right — a strong drop followed soon after, but previous take-profit levels had already been hit, which protected my balance. On October 13, I entered on the next candle and closed the first target, taking about 2 percent profit without leverage. Nothing spectacular, but it was more about patience and discipline than chasing big moves. Then, on October 16, the setup repeated itself, but this time the momentum was stronger. All four targets were reached in sequence, giving me roughly 10 percent profit using 2x leverage. I applied my secret custom strategy that helps analyze market structure without emotions. The indicator clearly highlighted fixation zones and confirmed trend stability. There are thousands of financial indicators on TradingView, but only a few can stay objective during turbulence. That objectivity becomes the true advantage when the market tests every trader’s discipline.
by CryptoVision
USDT.D Hits Supply Line – Reversal or Breakout? USDT.D @ 5.12% – upper supply line (descending channel top + 5.00% resistance confluence). What I See: Bearish rejection: Red candle close below 5.12% → confirms reversal. Bullish breakout: Close above 5.12% + volume spike → targets 5.40%+ (risk-off). Bias: Bearish – price kissing supply with lower highs since 2023. Next 24h trigger: Break 5.00% → drop to 4.70% (altcoin fuel). Hold/reject → grind to 5.40% (crypto caution). Action: Watch 4h close. Rejection = short USDT.D (long alts).
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by SnyperTA
BTC retracement by Wyckoff Replicated the model of Wyckoff distribution. The only thing is that he never used Fibbonacci in hes practice. While applying Fibbs will give us Swing entry at two resistance levels $98-100K and deeper at $92-94K, and the total 0.786 retrace would erase whole pump since April, that would be $84K. COnsidering that 2/3 of the trading volume is the US markets and US is currently in a bad shape, considering political situation, gov close and raw metals pump, BTC as a risk asset is still not a favorable investment. loosing 24K in short period of time or 20% value is showing that it can easy lose such value.
Short
by OlegDC
4
BTC cycle done? (ISM PMI) CRYPTOCAP:BTC & Business Cycles 🔄 (Part 2) In the previous post, I explained how the ISM PMI reflects macroeconomic business cycles — now let’s look at how we can actually anticipate these cycles. 📈 The Global M2 (money supply) tends to lead the business cycle by about 6 months. When liquidity starts expanding, it fuels economic growth and risk appetite — and the crypto market, being one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets, reacts early. 📝 This is why #altcoins are especially dependent on liquidity flows. While Bitcoin can perform under tighter conditions due to its store-of-value narrative, altcoins rely heavily on surplus liquidity and speculative capital to thrive. 💡 The liquidity cycles continue to expand, which shows us where the ISM PMI will be in 6 months. Therefore, we can say with a high probability that we will not have a lost business cycle, but it will simply develop later.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by FeelsStrategy
1
Solana Faces Strong Rejection at $192 ResistanceSolana price action is struggling to gain momentum above the $192 level, a critical zone packed with strong technical confluences. This region houses both the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Point of Control (POC), making it a decisive battleground for market participants. The inability to reclaim this region suggests that bullish momentum remains limited in the short term. A rejection from this resistance could invite a deeper corrective phase, especially if buying pressure continues to fade near current levels. Key Points: - Major Resistance: $192, aligning with both the 200 EMA and POC, acting as a technical ceiling. - Structural Weakness: Failure to reclaim this level limits upside continuation. - Downside Target: Next high-timeframe support sits near $145, offering potential re-entry interest. From a technical standpoint, Solana must close decisively above $192 to confirm strength and invalidate the current rejection bias. Until then, price remains vulnerable to a retracement toward lower liquidity zones. What to Expect: Expect further consolidation or minor pullbacks while below $192. A rejection from this region could accelerate a rotation toward $145, whereas a confirmed breakout would reestablish a bullish trajectory toward $210–$220.
Short
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
11
BTCUSD 4H UPMOVE 🧭 Market Context – 4H BTC/USD Bitcoin is currently consolidating after a strong decline, forming a potential accumulation zone near the lower support. Price is showing early signs of a bullish reversal attempt, but it is still below major resistance levels. 🔍 Key Technical Levels Level Type Price Zone (Approx) Importance Major Resistance 112,000 – 113,000 Final target of drawn bullish path Mid Resistance 109,000 – 109,500 Key breakout confirmation zone Immediate Resistance 107,800 – 108,200 First obstacle for bulls Current Support (Holding Zone) 106,500 – 107,000 Accumulation / Reversal base Major Support (Last Defense) 105,000 – 105,500 Break below = risk of deeper fall 🧱 Structure & Pattern ✅ Double bottom / accumulation behavior is forming around 107k, indicating buyers are defending the zone. ✅ Wick rejections below support show bullish absorption. 🚨 Still under bearish 4H structure until clean breakout over 108,200. 📈 Projected Bullish Scenario (White Path) 1️⃣ Hold above 107k and push toward 108,200 2️⃣ Break & Retest of 108.2k opens move to 109.5k zone 3️⃣ Continued higher highs leads toward 112k – 113k (major supply zone) 🐂 Bullish Confirmation Triggers 4H candle close above 108,200 Break of trailing red resistance line (bearish structure) Increasing volume & higher lows in consolidation 🐻 Bearish Risk Break below 106,500 may trigger liquidity sweep Below 105k = deeper correction (next support ~103k) 🗣️ Trader Insight This is a high-risk accumulation zone – Smart money accumulates quietly. Ideal for swing traders waiting for breakout confirmation. Inside range traders can scalp between 106.5k – 108k.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSDLong
by inanitrading
1
Richtech Robotics to $8.00!Richtech Robotics has completed a multi-month symmetrical triangle consolidation and has now broken out decisively to the upside on heavy volume. The triangle was defined by resistance near $4.23 and support near $1.13, creating a base height of roughly $3.10 (273%). Breakout Dynamics: Breakout Level: ~$2.17 Measured Move Projection: Applying the 273% height to the breakout point gives a technical target near $8.00. Volume Confirmation: Breakout occurred on extreme volume (~66M shares), confirming strong market participation and adding credibility to the move. Key Levels: Support: $2.00 (must hold to validate breakout). Interim Resistances: $3.50 and $5.20 (profit-taking zones). Final Target Zone: $8.00 (measured move completion). Interpretation: This breakout signals the end of a prolonged consolidation phase and the beginning of a new bullish leg. The measured target of $8.00 implies potential upside of over 200%+ from breakout levels, though the path may include pauses at $3.50 and $5.20. Sustained volume and fundamental catalysts (expansion in Walmart, healthcare, and China ventures) will be critical to sustaining momentum. Richtech Robotics is entering a technical expansion phase following a multi-month triangle breakout. With strong volume confirmation and a measured target of $8.00, RR presents a high-risk, high-reward setup in the robotics sector. Risk management is centered on maintaining support above $2.00, with upside potential scaling in stages toward $3.50, $5.20, and ultimately $8.00.
NASDAQ:RRLong
by HernandezCapital
2
Is NVTS about to enter wave 3 to $20.00 ?! 🔹 Thesis Summary NVTS appears to have completed a textbook Wave (2) correction and is entering Wave (3), historically the strongest and most profitable leg of the Elliott Wave cycle. With semiconductor sector tailwinds (AI, EV, data centers), technical confluence of Fibonacci extensions, and volume confirming accumulation, the medium-term path points toward $14–22 for Wave (3) and $30 for Wave (5). Wave (1): Strong impulsive move from ~$2.00 to ~$9.50 with high volume, breaking a multi-year descending channel. Wave (2): Pullback into the $5.50–6.00 region (≈50% retrace of Wave 1), aligning with Fibonacci support and high-volume buying zones. 🔹 Forward Projections Wave (3) target zone: 1.618 extension = ~$14.20 2.618 extension = ~$21.70 Wave (4): Expected shallow retracement into ~$12–16 (23–38% of Wave 3). Should remain above Wave (1) high (~$9.50) to keep count valid. Wave (5): Likely extension to $29–34 (3.618–4.236× Wave 1). Will likely show momentum divergence (higher price but weaker RSI/volume). 🔹 Risk Management Stop loss: Below $5.40 (Wave 2 low and 50% retracement line). A close under this invalidates the bullish count and suggests deeper correction.
NASDAQ:NVTSLong
by HernandezCapital
13
NQ is a mess todayOvernight the NQ broke the range and back tested. PA looks bullish but still not interested in longs outside of scalps opps that may happen. Heave Vol for current range is at 24919, and will be waiting to short a loss of that. On the Volume profile there are untapped previous day above and below. Above is from the massive dump day last week and is mostly filled, not to interested in that since it will be the wall of worry to climb. Below is from Friday and could provide an 80% trade, should be easily able to catch 100pts there.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Johnnymkool
BTC cycle done? (ISM PMI)CRYPTOCAP:BTC & Business Cycles 🔄 While most investors focus solely on the halving cycles, Bitcoin’s long-term rhythm is also deeply connected to the broader business cycle, reflected in indicators like the ISM PMI. 📝 As we can see, Bitcoin’s macro tops and bottoms tend to align with expansions and contractions in global liquidity — not just halving dates. Interestingly, in this current cycle, Bitcoin has performed relatively well, but altcoins have underpeformed and even dont beat the 4 years old peak (not adjusted by inflation), suggesting that liquidity hasn’t yet fully reached the broader crypto market. 📍 The crypto market is becoming more integrated with traditional financial cycles, so business indicators now play a bigger role than ever. The 1980s pattern show a similar case where a cycle extended due to delayed liquidity effects — and that could be what’s happening now. 💡 This may mean the current cycle could stretch a few more months, giving the market a bit more time before the next major shift.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by FeelsStrategy
#BITCOIN is Once Again Attempting a Reversal🚀 #BITCOIN is Once Again Attempting a Reversal! Here’s what we’re watching closely 👇 📈 Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin manages to break above Arrow #3, #4, and #5, it could confirm a strong bullish breakout, signaling potential upside momentum and renewed market confidence. 📉 Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break those levels, keep an eye on Arrow #6 — this could act as the next strong support zone where a possible rebound might start. ⚡️ If Bitcoin breaks above successfully, the next key resistance levels to watch are Arrow #1 and #2 — where the next major decision point awaits. 💪 Stay focused, stay disciplined — this is where patience and strategy pay off! #BTC #Crypto #Trading #Reversal #Breakout
Long
by MoonTradingForecast
Envision (VIS) on BASEEnvision (VIS) on BASE – Multi-Target Accumulation Setup This analysis focuses on the long-term accumulation structure forming on VIS/BASE following a prolonged downtrend and multi-month consolidation near historical lows. Price has compressed within a narrow range (~$0.0060–$0.0070), showing exhaustion in selling volume and the first signs of structural support holding above the previous capitulation wick. Technical Outlook Accumulation Zone: $0.0058–$0.0070 This zone aligns with the lowest historical range and coincides with visible demand clusters on weekly structure. A clean reclaim and close above $0.008 would confirm a short-term reversal. Breakout Confirmation: A break and weekly close above $0.008139 (≈125%) signals initial strength and potential rotation toward mid-range resistance. Target Levels Target 1: $0.008139 (short-term breakout target, +125%) Reclaiming this level confirms strength and may attract early momentum traders. Target 2: $0.023874 (mid-range retracement, +368%) This area represents the 0.382–0.5 retracement zone of the prior impulse move and prior consolidation shelf. Target 3: $0.029982 (major fib confluence and liquidity pocket, +463%) This aligns with the 0.65–0.786 Fibonacci retracement range and a historically heavy supply area (60K–98K BKR levels). Volume & Liquidity Context Volume shows compression near the base, and historical BKR (breaker block) metrics indicate previous sell-side inefficiency around $0.023–$0.030. These zones are likely to attract liquidity hunts and partial profit opportunities during a recovery leg. Not Ever Financial Advice.
VLong
by Altisona