Get started

Copper

HG - Copper Setting Up For A Long Opprtunity At Extreme📊 Fundamentals first: - Short-term: The copper market is turbulent—marked by sharp price spikes, crashes, and global shifts in stock levels. - Medium-term: Despite forecasted surpluses from ICSG, technology innovations and steady demand (especially from China and green sectors) may underpin prices. - U.S. risk factor: The tariffs remain a major wildcard, likely restructuring trade flows, increasing domestic input costs, and distorting global price differentials. 📈 Now the Chart: P5/0 at the U-MLH marked the end, and price dropped into the void. Now, at the L-MLH we see support has built up. The momentum we see now will probably lead in a pullback before the potential massive run-up to the Centerline. 💡 If the trading God gives me a pullback, I am willingly risk my 0.5% in this trade to make at least 4x more. 🦊 Happy new week to all §8-)
COMEX:HG1!Long
by HowToChart
Ivanhoe Mines - a 50% discount opportunity !The share price of this mining monster has suffered a 50% price decline in the last 6 months. One of the main reasons for the share price decline is the suspension of underground operations at the Kakula mine due to seismic activity. This suspension has led to a withdrawal of production and cost guidance for 2025, causing investor uncertainty and a subsequent drop in share price 1,2,3 Additionally, the company has faced challenges with its smelter, including a fire that damaged onsite generators and caused a three-month delay in commissioning. These issues, combined with power constraints and grid instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), have contributed to a more conservative production outlook. However there are lots of positive catalysts for Ivanhoe Mines: the upcoming rise in precious metal prices, especially the wake up of the severely undervalued PLATINUM prices. Platreef PGM project in South Africa contains 7 million ounces of gold (0.25 gpt) and 50 million ounces of AuEq. About 90% of annual production (1 million ounces) will consist of PGMs (platinum group metals), making it the largest PGM mine in the world ! Platreef is expected to have low all-in production costs, though more precise figures will become available after the ramp-up phase, scheduled for the second half of 2025. Platreef PGM, Kakula-Kamoa (massive copper mine, the largest high grade mine globally) and Kipushi (a high-grade zinc operation); With all three of their mines expected to be in production, 2025 could be a pivotal year for them. Chart wise, the price is still rising in a long term rising wedge. Price just found support on the lower resistance and is bouncing strongly. OBV on balance volume is still on a steady rise. I own Ivanhoe Mines since I got in at sub 1$ (thanks to Rick Rule's reccomandation - God may bless him). and I am not willing to let go before we reach 50$, which is my long term target.
TSX:IVNLong
by Dangermousebanana
7
Copper vs Dollar | Institutional vs Retail Sentiment Analysis🔥 XCU/USD – Copper vs U.S Dollar | Thief Money-Making Plan (Swing/Scalping Trade) 🎯 Plan & Thief Entry Style Bias: Bullish ✅ (Re-Accumulation Buy Setup) Entry Style: Thief strategy = multiple limit order layers 🧩 Suggested Layers: (4.4600) 🟢 | (4.4700) 🟢 | (4.4800) 🟢 | (4.4900) 🟢 | (4.5000) 🟢 You can always increase limit layers depending on your own strategy. Stop Loss (Thief SL): 4.4200 ⚠️ Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) — always adjust SL to your own plan & risk appetite. Target Zone: 4.6700 🎯 Resistance + overbought zone + possible trap → steal the money & escape! 🏃💰 📊 XCU/USD Market Snapshot (Copper vs U.S Dollar) – Sept 5, 2025 Real-Time Change: -0.8% 🔻 Retail Sentiment: 45% Long 😊 | 55% Short 😟 Institutional Sentiment: 60% Long 🚀 | 40% Short 🛑 ➡️ Retail leaning bearish, while institutions show cautious optimism. 😨💰 Fear & Greed Index Score: 48/100 (Neutral) ⚖️ Market mood balanced → no extreme fear/greed at the moment. 📊 Fundamental Score – 6/10 Stable global copper demand ✅ Risks: US economic slowdown ❌ & weaker China industrial output ⚙️ Key Watch: industrial production data + trade policy shifts 🌍 Macro Score – 5.5/10 US Dollar strength 🦅 Global PMI data + US jobs report 🏭 Tariff talks & supply chain risks add uncertainty 🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook Neutral ➡️ Slightly Bullish ⚖️➡️🚀 Short-term pressure from USD strength 📉 Long-term supported by institutional buying & steady industrial demand 🏗️ Watch: US Nonfarm Payrolls + China economic updates 📡 🔎 Quick Take – Why This Thief Plan? Copper is stable but under macro pressure. Institutional flow is bullish compared to retail → signal of hidden strength. Neutral sentiment = less volatility now, but data events may unlock momentum. Swing/Scalp opportunities exist with layered buy entries → thief escape at 4.6700! 💰 📌 Related Pairs to Watch OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver) PEPPERSTONE:USDX (Dollar Index) $CLUSD (Crude Oil) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #Copper #XCUUSD #Metals #Commodities #TradingView #SwingTrade #Scalping #Forex #ThiefStrategy #Layering #CommoditiesTrading #XAUUSD #XAGUSD #USDIndex #CrudeOil
EIGHTCAP:XCUUSDLong
by The-Thief
COPPER Multi-year Support held. Strong Buy Signal.Last time we had a look on Copper (HG1!) was almost 2 months ago (July 17, see chart below) and it delivered an instant return on our sell as it got rejected at the top of the Rising Wedge, quickly hitting our 4.700 Target: The price just broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again this week after completing 5 weeks below it. With the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) intact as Support, the multi-year Rising Wedge should now technically initiate its new Bullish Leg. Check also the 1W RSI, which just hit and rebounded on its 2-year Support Zone. We expect a new Higher High on the Rising Wedge, targeting $6.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
Gold Deep Dive: Cycles, Correlations, Divergences, SymmetryGold has been in a raging bull market and almost up over 100% since its monthly bullish engulfing candle. Gold sniffing out week monetary policy and rallying on the back of easing global monetary policy. Historically from a trading standpoint, Gold is extremely overbought and could be 4-8 weeks away from a considerable pullback of 15-30% . Many Signals such as symmetrical moves, Monthly overbought RSI, Copper / Gold Divergence, GDX resistance is telling us to use caution and trim long profits. It does seem like gold wants $3500 before it has a reversal back down. We are looking for a liquidity sweep of the ATH as a possible short zone. (Not FA advice) Once gold resets some indicators and allows longer term moving average to catch up it will likely keep pushing but we only for see that in mid to late 2026. If we make a new high....we don't see much upside for the next 3-6 months.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Trading-Capital
1
Copper testing bullish trend lineWith copper prices easing over the last few days, it has now reached a key short-term support area in the shaded region. Here a bullish trend line meets prior support/resistance range. Can we see a bounce here today? Or are we inside a bear flag pattern? Either way, we will soon find out, and then one can trade copper accordingly. We prefer the long side give a positive long-term macro backdrop for copper. Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:COPPER
by FOREX.com
Copper establishing a baseFollowing the big drop in copper prices on the back of news at the end of July that Trump's tariff excludes refined metal, prices have started to stabilize near the lows, suggesting a potential recovery could be on the cards. Copper prices dropped by the largest on July 30 after Trump excluded refined metal from his planned import tariff. Dip-buyers are starting to step back in now, with prices now finding their footing around $4.40 area, which itself was a prior demand zone from early April. Short-term resistance around $4.50 has provided a short-term ceiling but if that breaks then we could see a quick recovery towards the 200-day average first, ahead of potentially $5.00 in the coming weeks. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:COPPERLong
by FOREX.com
What a turnaround on copper futuresManipulation? Smells like it, but of course, this is just the market we are currently living in. Let's dig in. MARKETSCOM:COPPER COMEX:HG1! Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
C
by Marketscom
Copper: Trump Signs Tariffs on Imports Amid National Security...President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Wednesday that imposes tariffs on copper imports, citing concerns over national security. The White House announced that the new policy will introduce a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and other copper-derived goods that are highly dependent on the metal. These tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on August 1, as outlined in a White House fact sheet. In terms of market dynamics, copper is currently within a monthly demand zone, with a daily demand area also identified for setting pending orders. The potential impact on prices could be twofold: a possible upward movement driven by the discount effect on the metal, or continued decline following President Trump's announcement. What are your thoughts on how these tariffs might influence copper prices moving forward? ✅ Please share your thoughts about HG1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by FOREXN1
4
Long the copper for a potential breaking upWith the expectation of PPI bouncing back from the deep valley because China is launching a 1.3 Trillion infrastructure plan to build the largest hydro dam in the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the long term global demand of industrial copper is more bullish than last time. In the aspect of currency, the bullish steepener yield curve of US T-bill is giving a continuous momentum to industrial commodities. Imma entry in the bottom of the current consolidation and add position as the breaking in the next weeks
PEPPERSTONE:COPPERLong
by jtwongresearch
COPPER Top of 4-year Rising Wedge. Sell.Copper (HG1!) eventually followed the bearish break-out signal we gave on our last analysis (April 03, see chart below) and within 2 days it hit our 4.1250 Target: Right now the price sits at the top of the 4-year Rising Wedge pattern and on the 1W time-frame it is a textbook technical sell signal. With the 1W RSI also rejected on a Lower Highs trend-line, we are looking to aim for the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) at least. Every Bearish Leg since the July 11 2022 Low, reached at least its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding again. As a result, our Target is 4.700, which given a fair 3-month time-frame, should be at the time marginally below the 1W MA50, in line with all previous bottoms of the Rising Wedge. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Short
by TradingShot
Copper: Event-driven Trade Idea on Recent TariffsCOMEX: Micro Copper Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MHG1! ), #microfutures The Event On July 9th, President Trump announced that he would impose a 50% tariff on imports of copper, effective August 1st. The decision was based on national security assessment. Copper is the second most used material by the U.S. Department of Defense. The President intents to use tariffs to reduce reliance on imports and shore up support for domestic production. Immediate Market Reaction U.S. copper prices ended Tuesday’s session over 13% higher — the sharpest single-day gain since 1989. The September COMEX copper futures contract was settled at $5.584 a pound on Friday, up 35.7% year-to-date. Due to tariffs, Copper in the U.S. is priced at a large premium over international markets. • UK: LME copper contract was quoted at $9,660.5 per ton on Friday. • China: SHFE coper futures was settled at RMB 78,420 per ton. It can be converted to $10,959.4 via the Dollar/RMB exchange rate of 7.1555. • US: COMEX copper quote of $5.584 can be converted to $12,312.7 per ton. • As of Friday, COMEX copper is priced at a 27.5% premium over LME copper, and a 12.3% premium over SHFE copper. The U.S. Copper Market The U.S. Geological Survey reports that the 2024 total refined copper consumption was 1.8 million metric tons. Of which, 850,000 tons were from mining, 150,000 tons were refined from scrap, and 810,000 tons from imports. Chile is the biggest source of U.S. copper imports, accounting for 581,000 tons, or 71.7% of total imports. Canada is the second largest, for 169,000 tons, or 20.9%. Copper is a widely used base metal, found in products ranging from machinery, electronics, household goods, housing, infrastructure projects, to aircraft and missiles. Since President Trump announced a probe into copper in February, traders have been poised for a hike on copper duties, leading to major shifts in inventories away from Europe and Asia and into the U.S. The Next Event: Will the Copper Tariffs get postponed or reduced? The goal to increase domestic production of copper is very challenging. It will take years to ramp up and decades to fully meet demand — at a massive upfront investment cost. Hiking the import duties would not help national security. It could not change the fact that the biggest copper mines are in Chile, Peru and Canada. A sharp increase in the cost of copper will quickly translate into wide-ranging inflation in the U.S. In my opinion, once the Trump administration realizes the full impacts, we could possibly see a crawl-back from the intended copper tariffs. The effective date would be postponed, the tariff rate could be reduced, and many companies may get exemption/waiver. We have seen similar maneuvers happening multiple times in the past few months. Overall, the actual impact of copper tariffs will be much smaller than the original announcement. Shorting COMEX Copper Futures Historically, the price difference between COMEX and LME coppers has been near-zero and was around the $150 level in 2024. Since February, COMEX copper has been trading at $500-$1,500 premium over LME. As of Friday, COMEX copper futures have gone up 35% this year and are now priced at $2,652 per ton above LME copper. In my opinion, these price differences reflect no economic fundamentals. It is purely due to the ever-changing global tariff conflict. If President Trump rescinds his tariff narratives, we could likely see a large drop in COMEX copper prices. A trader sharing this view could explore shorting the COMEX Micro copper ( GETTEX:MHG ). Last Friday, the September micro copper futures contract (MHGU5) was settled at 5.5910. Each contract has a notional value of 2,500 pounds of high-grade copper, or a market value of $13,977.5. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $1,100. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 12.7-to-1. Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how to use a short futures position to take advantage a potential reduction on copper tariffs. Hypothetical Trade: • Short 1 MHGU5 contract at 5.5910, and set a stop loss at 6.00 • Trader pays $1,100 for initial margin Scenario 1: Tariffs go into effect, copper rises to $6.57 • Futures reflect a 50% premium over current LME copper price, which is at $4.38 per pound • Short order stop loss at 6.00, and the maximum loss is $1,022.5 (= (6-5.591) x 2500) • The trader loses most of the margining fund, but owes no more Scenario 2: Trump Rescinds Tariffs, Copper falls to $4.38 • COMEX copper will be priced at No premium over LME • Short position gains: $3,027.5 (= (5.591-4.38) x 2500) • The hypothetical return will be 275.2% (= 3027.5 / 1100) The above scenarios show that • When copper falls, short position will have higher returns due to its leverage nature. • When copper rises, the stoploss will kick in to set maximum losses. The above trade idea could be deployed using the standard-size Copper Futures contract. Its notional value is 25,000 tons, which is 10 times bigger than that of the micro contract. The initial margin is $11,000. The standard-size contract is more liquid. On Friday, it had a total volume of 60,313 contracts, and an open interest of 221,682. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MHG1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
XCU/USD: Low-Risk Loot Opportunity!🔥 THE COPPER HEIST: XCU/USD Robbery Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🔥 🌟 Attention, Market Robbers & Money Makers! 🌟 (Hola! Oi! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!) 🤑💰💸✈️ Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, here’s our master heist plan for the XCU/USD "The Copper" Metals Market! This is a high-probability long setup, but we must escape before the police (bears) set their trap near the red zone! 🚨📉 📌 THE HEIST BLUEPRINT ✔ Entry Strategy (Breakout or Pullback) ✔ Stop Loss (Protect Your Loot!) ✔ Target (Escape Before the Cops Arrive!) 🚀 ENTRY: TIME TO STRIKE! "The heist is ON! Wait for the ATR breakout (5.00000) before moving!" Option 1: Place Buy Stop orders above the Moving Average. Option 2: Use Buy Limit orders on pullbacks (15m/30m recent swing lows). 📢 ALERT! Set a breakout alarm—don’t miss the move! 🛑 STOP LOSS: PROTECT YOUR LOOT! "Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're entering on a Buy Stop, DON’T set your SL until AFTER the breakout! 📍 Thief SL Placement: Recent swing low + Moving Average (5H TF) → 4.80000 ⚠️ WARNING: If you ignore this, you’re playing with fire! 🔥 (Your risk, not mine!) 🎯 TARGET: CASH OUT & ESCAPE! 🏴‍☠️ First Take-Profit: 5.25000 (or exit early if the market turns!) 💰 Scalpers: Only trade LONG—use trailing SL to lock in profits! 📊 MARKET STATUS: NEUTRAL (But Bullish Potential! 🐂) Fundamentals? Check COT Reports, Macro Data, Geopolitics, News Sentiment! 🔗 Links in bio0 for full analysis! 👉🌎📰 🚨 TRADING ALERT: NEWS = VOLATILITY! ⚠️ Avoid new trades during major news! 🔒 Use Trailing SL to protect open positions! 💥 BOOST THIS HEIST PLAN! Hit 👍 LIKE & 🔄 SHARE to strengthen our robbery squad! 🚀 More heists coming soon—stay tuned! 🤑💎 🎯 FINAL WORD: "Take profits, treat yourself—you deserve it! 💸🏆"
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by The-Thief
2
Copper Holds Above 14-Year ResistanceFrom a monthly time frame perspective, copper has broken above a major resistance zone defined by consecutive highs dating back to 2011. The breakout above $5.40 marks a significant technical milestone. A clean move above the $5.87 high could open the door for further upside, potentially targeting $7.00 and beyond as bullish momentum continues to build. On the downside, if copper fails to hold this breakout and closes back below the 14-year trendline, support may be retested near the $4.60 and $4.20 levels. - Razan Hilal, CMT
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by FOREX.com
Copper - the hot topic this weekUS is planning to implement tariffs on copper imports at a scale of 50%. It's an interesting move, which might not make much sense. Let's dig in. MARKETSCOM:COPPER COMEX:HG1! Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
COMEX:HG1!
by Marketscom
2
Gap below… but copper’s breakout still in playCopper markets erupted higher this week following President Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. The price ripped from just above $5.20 to nearly $5.80 in a single 4-hour candle. Now, copper could be forming a bullish flag or pennant on the 4-hour timeframe. After the vertical spike, price is consolidating in a tight, potentially downward-sloping channel between ~$5.45 and ~$5.60. If confirmed with a clean breakout above the flag’s upper trendline - perhaps near $5.62—the next leg could project toward the previous high near $5.80 There’s also a gap below current price action, between $5.20 and $5.35, formed during the explosive move up. While gaps can act as support zones, they also tend to get revisited.
OANDA:XCUUSD
by BlackBull Markets
1
Sprott Copper Arbitrage against LME copper futures, discount 20%Currently COP.UN (traded on TSX, Toronto Stock Exchange) is showing some substantial discount again against NAV. Discount is more than 20% which basically means that you can buy copper on the world markets (LME) with a 20% discount! I expect discount will narrow again in coming weeks and wil go back to minus 10 or even better. A more detailed description can be find below of all facts and figures. Current Situation: Discount to NAV: COP.UN is trading at just over a 20% discount to its net asset value (NAV). Essentially, this means you can buy copper exposure at a significant discount to the current market price. Copper Storage and Transfers: The trust’s copper is stored in LME-approved warehouses and is increasingly being shipped to COMEX warehouses in the U.S. The reason is straightforward: copper prices on COMEX are currently higher than on the LME. By moving copper to COMEX, Sprott can sell inventory at better prices. Mechanism for Payouts: The proceeds from selling copper at a premium on COMEX versus the LME can be distributed to unitholders as a special cash distribution (dividend). This provides a direct way for investors to benefit from arbitrage between exchanges. Redemption Option: Institutional investors can redeem trust units for physical copper, subject to minimum tonnages and fees. This helps keep the trust price connected to physical copper markets and offers an arbitrage route if the discount remains wide. The Opportunity: This setup offers trading houses huge opportunities: Arbitrage Play: Buy COP.UN units at a >20% discount, redeem them for physical copper, and sell the metal at spot prices, pocketing the spread (net of costs). Dividend Upside: Hold COP.UN units and potentially benefit from future special dividends if Sprott continues moving copper to COMEX and realizing higher sales prices. Useful Resources: COP.UN Prospectus (Sprott Physical Copper Trust) cop-prospectus-en.pdf
TSX:COP.UNLong
by ernest2000
4
Copper Trading Summary – Trump’s 50% Tariff ImpactCopper futures spiked—largest intraday gain in decades—after Trump announced a 50% import tariff. Market fears supply disruption, especially from major exporters like Chile and Peru. Bullish short-term outlook as U.S. buyers may rush to stockpile ahead of enforcement. Risk of retaliation or broader trade tensions could limit gains if global demand weakens. Watch for: Tariff implementation details COMEX/LME inventory shifts China demand signals Currency moves (AUD, CLP) Trading bias: Bullish copper short term, but remain alert for macro trade war risks. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 9,780 Resistance Level 2: 9,900 Resistance Level 3: 10,000 Support Level 1: 9,580 Support Level 2: 9,500 Support Level 3: 9,340 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:COPPER
by Trade Nation
MR. COPPER GOES FUN. WITH DONALD TRUMP — IT IS A BULL RUNCopper prices in 2025 are up about 27 percent year-to-date, driven by a complex interplay of technical and fundamental factors, with geopolitical events such as the Trump administration's tariff policies and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East having a significant impact. Fundamental Outlook: The main driver of copper prices in 2025 is the ongoing global surge in demand driven by the transition to clean energy. Copper is essential for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy infrastructure, and grid upgrades, all of which require extensive use of copper due to its superior electrical conductivity. For example, EVs use about 2-4 times more copper than traditional vehicles, and renewable installations such as wind turbines contain several tons of copper each. This structural growth in demand underpins the optimistic outlook for copper in the medium to long term. On the supply side, however, copper production is growing. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a global copper surplus of 289,000 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 2024 surplus. This surplus is driven by rising production, particularly from new or expanded operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, Russia and elsewhere. Capacity increases in these regions, coupled with smelter growth, could contribute to a supply glut despite strong demand. Conversely, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt bauxite and alumina supply chains, a region that is a strategically important supplier of raw materials. Impact of Trump Tariffs: The Trump administration’s threats and actions to impose tariffs on U.S. copper imports have added volatility and complexity to the market. The tariff announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in early April 2025 as concerns about the impact on US manufactured demand and global trade flows grew. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell to one-month lows following China’s retaliatory tariffs, before partially recovering after some tariff exemptions and reductions were announced. The tariffs also distorted physical supply chains. Traders rushed to deliver copper to the US ahead of the tariffs, reducing copper availability in other regions such as China. This arbitrage resulted in a significant widening of the price differential between US CME copper contracts and LME copper prices, with US prices trading at a premium of over 10% to London. This premium reflects the tariff risk embedded in the US copper price and expectations of temporary domestic market tensions. Technical Outlook: Technically, copper prices have shown resilience despite the tariff shocks. Copper prices sold off after peaking in late March 2025 before the tariffs were announced, but have since begun to recover. Long-term trendlines and moving averages remain supportive, with the 100-week and 200-week moving averages trending higher and forming a bullish crossover earlier in the year. Long-term copper prices are once again attacking the 18-year resistance around $4.50/lb ($10/kg) that capped the upside in 2008 and again in the 2010s and first half of the 2020s, with a 1.5x rally in the next 1 to 3 years. The technical main chart of the COMEX December 2025 copper futures contract COMEX:HGZ2025 points to the possibility of an upside move, all the way to the $7 mark (around $15/kg) as early as H2 2025. Conclusion Going forward, copper prices are expected to remain volatile but supported by long-term structural demand growth, with the impact of tariffs likely to cause episodic disruptions rather than a sustained suppression of increasingly hot prices. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team😎
COMEX:HGZ2025
by PandorraResearch