Copper is in a death cross: $3.5 is the next crucial supportThis week, copper plummeted to fresh 52-week lows, breaking below the $4 per pound support level held since April 2021. Prices have now reached oversold territory as the 14-day RSI went below 30 this week, and is currently trading at 22, reflecting the brown metal’s severe sell-off.
Moving averages have also created a so-called death-cross pattern, with the 50-day crossing the 200-day, possibly indicating a shift from a bull to a bear market.
Copper sales have surged as recession concerns grew significantly, especially in the United States. Inflationary pressures in many nations of world are much harder to control than expected, and they are also widespread in goods and services not directly connected to energy prices, requiring higher interest rates that would inevitably slow economic activity. Copper , being one of the most sensitive commodities to the economic cycle, suffers substantially during phases of slowdown in the US ISM Manufacturing index , as we explained in this analysis .
Copper prices are presently testing the $3.7 resistance level established in January ’21 and are down 27% from their March ‘22 highs. Below this level, the $3.5 pound support in December 2020 and January 2021 could be tested.
This is a crucial threshold for the Fibonacci retracement analysis since a fall below the 50% level would boost bearish' convictions and confirm the presence of a copper's bear market.
