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Bitcoin - Starting the final -30% drop!🛟Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is dropping another -30%: 🔎Analysis summary: The underlying trend on Bitcoin remains clearly bullish. But following the unusual curve channel, Bitcoin perfectly rejected the upper resistance curve. Quite likely therefore that Bitcoin will now create another bullish break and retest and first drop -30%. 📝Levels to watch: $55,000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by SwingTraderPhil
50
COIN Analysis - February 02, 2026: Oversold Bargain?COIN Analysis - February 02, 2026: Oversold Bargain? – Graham's Margin Meets Buffett's Moat Overview Coinbase (COIN) closed at $189.21, down 2.84% amid a crypto market retreat, with Bitcoin slipping below $80,000 and triggering sell-offs in related stocks like COIN, MSTR, and others. Key drivers include spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and regulatory scrutiny, but fundamentals shine: Q4 revenue beat expectations at $2.1B (up 111% YoY), driven by transaction fees and tokenized assets. Through Graham's lens, COIN trades at a P/E of 16.36 (near his <15 threshold for value) with EPS of $11.57, offering a margin of safety amid volatility; Buffett would value its economic moat from network effects, regulatory compliance, and 43%+ profit margins, positioning it as a durable compounder in the "everything exchange" era. Technical Analysis The daily chart displays a falling wedge pattern in a downtrend, trading below both SMAs with contracting volume signaling potential exhaustion. RSI at extreme oversold levels hints at a reversal, while MACD shows bearish momentum but divergence potential. Weekly confirms the long-term breakdown below the 200-SMA, but support near $185-190 aligns with prior lows. | Indicator | Value | Interpretation | | Price | $189.21 | Bearish context, deep discount to averages | | Daily Change | -2.84% | Down trend tied to crypto weakness | | SMA 50 | $243.97 | Overhead resistance | | SMA 200 | $291.06 | Long-term bearish until reclaimed | | RSI 14 | 17.71 | Oversold, strong reversal candidate | | MACD | -14.84 | Bearish momentum | | Signal Line | -11.26 | Below signal, sell crossover persisting | | Volume | 8.57M | Declining, implies fading seller conviction | The wedge suggests a bullish breakout above $200 could target $244 (50-SMA), with confluence from oversold RSI and Bitcoin's key support. Downside risks a test of $143 if $185 breaks. Fundamentals bolster the case: Graham's criteria (P/B 3.35 reasonable for growth, current ratio >2 from strong balance sheet) indicate undervaluation at 54.8% below 52-week high; Buffett's focus on ROE (26% estimated) and free cash flow growth (despite recent dips) highlights COIN's competitive advantage in crypto infrastructure. Market Sentiment and Catalysts Short-term sentiment is bearish, with X discussions noting short covering potential but overall caution amid Bitcoin's slide and negative premiums. However, analysts rate it a "Buy" with a $376.74 target (98% upside), citing user growth and RWA expansion despite volatility. Upcoming catalysts: Q4 earnings on February 12 (EPS estimate $1.06, revenue $1.84B), Fed rate decisions, and potential SEC ETF approvals. Prediction and Trade Setup Bullish Scenario: RSI bounce and wedge breakout above $200, with Bitcoin >$80K, targets $244 then $280. Entry on volume >10M; stop below $185. Aligns with Graham/Buffett: Buy at discount to intrinsic value (estimated $300+ via DCF on 6% CAGR). Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below $185 amid crypto weakness targets $143. Entry on MACD confirmation; stops above $200. Invalidation: Bullish flips below $180; bearish above $200. Risk-reward: 1:3 on longs, size 1% risk – Graham's safety margin via low debt (48%) and Buffett's moat support holding through volatility. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Coinbase holds market leadership in crypto exchanges with strong brand trust, regulatory compliance, and diversified revenue (e.g., trading, subscriptions, stablecoins). Robust growth (94% YoY revenue in recent quarters) and technological edge in security/infrastructure provide a durable moat. **Weaknesses:** Heavy reliance on volatile trading fees, high operational expenses (e.g., tech development), and vulnerability to cyber threats/regulatory shifts limit efficiency. Elevated customer acquisition costs and revenue concentration in key assets like Bitcoin/Ethereum add risks. **Opportunities:** Expanding into tokenized assets, international markets (e.g., EU via MiCA license), and derivatives/staking amid pro-crypto policies could drive growth. Rising adoption (e.g., onchain activity, ETFs) positions COIN as infrastructure leader, akin to AWS for blockchain. **Threats:** Intense competition from Binance/Robinhood, market volatility, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty (e.g., SEC scrutiny) could erode share; crypto downturns amplify downside. What do you think – is COIN's P/E and moat the ultimate value play in crypto, or too risky for Graham purists? Comment your thoughts
NASDAQ:COINLong
by DCAChampion
GPSUSDT.P: long setup from daily resistance at 0.008500SETUP SUMMARY BINANCE:GPSUSDT.P is holding well below the level, considering yesterday’s strong rally. Usually, a correction is expected, but we see the asset sticking nearly to the level and consolidating clearly and calmly, without sharp moves — this is a sign of a confident buyer. About 2 hours ago, there was a false breakout, and this is now the key factor to watch: whether a correction follows it. If not, it is a strong long signal. If a correction occurs, it means sellers are blocking the upside, and we will need to wait for a new approach and re-evaluate the overall picture. Therefore, the shallower the correction and the faster the re-test of the level, the better. PRO-THESIS FACTORS: volatility contraction on approach impulse absorption at the level close retest price compression (Squeeze) (4h) lack of rejection after false break at-level close ADVERSE FACTORS: overhead congestion lack of accumulation Leave your thoughts on the setup in the comments. Follow this profile to monitor all upcoming ideas
Long
by The_Traders_House
HBAR Breakdown or Bounce? This Zone Decides EverythingYello Paradisers, did you see that perfect tap into our key demand zone? After a prolonged move inside the descending channel, #HBAR has finally reached a critical decision point, and what happens next could define the mid-term trend. 💎#HBARUSDT has been respecting the descending resistance and support flawlessly, but now we’re seeing the first signs of a potential reversal forming right at the confluence of the demand zone and the major support area. This is where real opportunities are born, but also where inexperienced traders often get wrecked by jumping in too early or without confirmation. 💎If buyers step in with strength here and push through the descending resistance, the next upside target sits near $0.11291. Beyond that, we’re eyeing the strong resistance at $0.15125, which would complete a textbook breakout from the current structure. But until then, this is still a reactionary zone, not a confirmed trend shift. 💎A failure to hold above $0.085 would weaken the setup, and any move below 0.070 would completely invalidate the bullish scenario, opening room for further downside. This is why discipline is everything here. No need to rush. The real money is made waiting for the clearest signal, not forcing it. Patience is key now. This is a moment where discipline will separate the pros from the crowd. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
AXSUSDT.P: short setup from 4h support at 2.043BINANCE:AXSUSDT.P has entered a consolidation phase following a strong rally. This range is wide enough to allow for trading inside the structure. I have identified a local level, relying primarily on the 4H timeframe. The asset has been trading just above this support for an extended period. Recently, there was a tap on the level, and now we are seeing a close retest developing — this is a strong bearish (Short) signal. Since this is an intra-range trade and not a breakout from the major consolidation channel, we might not see a massive move. However, securing a solid 5R (5 to 1) risk-to-reward ratio is highly feasible.
Short
by The_Traders_House
Solana: ready for a bounce? key levels and targets to watchSolana. Tired of watching this thing bleed or are you secretly hunting that oversold bounce? Altcoins have been under pressure lately as traders de-risk on macro jitters and rotate back into majors, and SOL got hit extra hard after the recent run-up. That flush cleaned out a lot of late longs, which is exactly where bounces often start. On the 4H chart price is parked around 102-105, right on a chunky volume node that acted as support before. RSI is still near oversold but curling up, and we have a small sideways range after the waterfall - classic pause after panic. I lean to a corrective move up toward 112-118 as long as this local base holds, with sellers likely waiting at the previous breakdown zone. I might be wrong, but this looks more like quiet accumulation than a dead cat to me. ✅ My plan: watch for a sweep of 100 and quick reclaim as a long trigger, targeting that 112-118 pocket where I’d start taking profit. If 100 breaks and price starts closing below 98 with momentum, the idea is invalidated and opens room to 92-94, where the next demand zone sits. For now I’m flat and waiting for either a clean reclaim for longs or a breakdown to fade the bounce.
by Trade_Logic_AI
BNB: are sellers finally tired? key levels and targets aheadBinance Coin. Who else is watching this post‑crash chop and wondering if the sellers are finally tired? Exchange tokens are still under pressure after the latest regulatory headlines, and BNB just printed a proper elevator‑down move, so everyone’s nerves are fried. On the 4H chart price got smashed through the 840 support and is now ranging in the 750‑780 pocket where we’ve got a fat horizontal volume node. RSI bounced out of oversold with a small bullish divergence, so I’m leaning toward a relief pop into the first supply band around 810‑830. I might be wrong, but this looks more like capitulation than the start of Armageddon. My base plan: look for longs on dips while BNB holds above 760, with targets into 810‑830 and a tight invalidation below 740 ⚠️. If 740 gives way on strong volume, I drop the long idea and expect a slide toward 700‑680 with shorts on a clean retest of broken support. I’m waiting for a clear 4H candle confirmation before committing size.
by Trade_Logic_AI
EURUSD: Bullish Trap to Bearish Continuation (H1)....This is a 1-hour EURUSD chart showing a fake bullish breakout into a premium supply zone, followed by a clear shift to bearish market structure. After the stop-hunt/liquidity grab (circled), price rolls over and respects a descending channel, confirming bearish control. The Ichimoku cloud aligns as dynamic resistance, and price continues to print lower highs and lower lows. A downside target is projected near prior demand/liquidity, suggesting continuation of the bearish move.
Short
by Alpha_Trade_Scope
1
Support and Resistance in relation to SMCIn this video I go through a bit of my analysis as it pertains to the concepts of Support and Resistance, and how I use those ideologies to further add confluence to my bias, narrative, and trade setups. This is in no way a p*ssing contest. Any combination of factors can create a positive edge, especially when experience comes into play. However, I prefer to actually understand what price is doing rather than rely on patterns alone. - R2F Trading
Short
by Road_2_Funded
CCUSDT.P: long setup from daily resistance at 0.18270BINANCE:CCUSDT.P has been in a prolonged accumulation phase. Notably, it did not crash to the lows after listing, indicating the asset is liquid and supported. Yesterday's daily candle closed right at its High, near the resistance level. This is a very strong signal that the trend is likely to continue. Today, we have been consolidating below the level all day, and right now, the price is hugging it closely. The 4H timeframe also closed at its highs. The probability of a breakout is extremely high.
Long
by The_Traders_House
2
BTCSince my first forecast regarding the BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P decline 2 months ago, the asset has dropped by 27%. As of today, my global outlook on the market remains bearish. The first significant target is 78,200.2. Once reached, it will be necessary to assess the character of the price movement there. While we move toward this target, the entire market will also likely head down. This creates excellent opportunities to profit, as the market is moving rather than standing still. Subscribe to not miss updates.
Short
by The_Traders_House
ENSOUSDT.P: long setup from daily resistance at 1.6399BINANCE:ENSOUSDT.P is in a bullish trend. After a strong rally, it consolidated for a few days. Now, a solid pre-breakout base is forming right under the 1.6399 resistance, which acts as the upper boundary of the trading channel. I have mixed feelings about the Daily timeframe because the asset has already extended significantly today. However, on the 4H timeframe, we see clear price compression towards the level with decreasing volatility. On the 5m chart, the price tested the level multiple times without a deep rejection or correction, which would be the normal reaction here. The logic: When we don't see the expected reaction (a pullback), that catches my attention. If an asset rallies hard and still has the strength to hold highs and consolidate right under resistance, it signals a strong buyer. Conditions: Volatility must not increase before the breakout. The entry must strictly follow the system rules. Given the overextended Daily chart (which is the primary one), I will be extremely cautious with this trade, or might skip it entirely if the setup isn't perfect.
Long
by The_Traders_House
FRAXUSDT: short setup from daily support at 0.76BINANCE:FRAXUSDT.P is confidently approaching its all-time lows. Right now, the price is consolidating above the 0.76 level, positioning itself, in my view, for further downside. What caught my attention is the massive drop on Jan 25, followed by the asset simply "hanging" just above the support with minimal volatility. Normally, volatility decreases gradually. Here, we saw a ~25% crash, and the very next day, volatility dropped by a factor of 3.5. This is abnormal. Two negative factors: High volatility on the working timeframe (5m). Immediately below 0.76 lies the historical low (ATL) of 0.742, which could act as an obstacle to a free fall. My Plan: Given these factors, I am waiting for the character of the movement to change. Before the breakout, a clean entry point must form on low volatility. I need to see abnormal calmness for this asset — no large, erratic bars. Looking at the 4H timeframe, observing how cleanly the asset is consolidating and how many times it has hit the 0.76 support, I would still look to initiate a Short from this level.
Short
by The_Traders_House
ETH: Gravity Still OnETH isn’t “crashing.” It’s doing its job . Zoom out and you’ll see the same thing repeating over and over: lower highs → corrective bounces → unreached bearish C targets left behind . Those Cs aren’t decoration. They’re magnets . Every time ETH tried to stabilize, it left another unfinished bearish sequence below. No proper resolution. No cleanup. Just more downside pressure stacking up. That’s why every bounce feels weak. That’s why upside keeps failing. Price isn’t free to trend until this mess is resolved. Right now: Multiple HTF bearish Cs remain open Structure keeps rolling over instead of reclaiming highs Rallies look corrective, not impulsive Until ETH clears these C target s, any bullish narrative is premature at best… and delusional at worst. Could we bounce short-term? Sure. Markets breathe. But structurally? The draw is still down . If ETH suddenly reclaims and holds above major broken structure, I’ll kill this idea myself. No ego attached. Until then — unfinished business usually gets handled. Bias : Bearish continuation Focus : Unreached HTF C targets acting as draw on price
Short
by SmellyTaz
1
Bitcoin Is Not Bouncing — It’s Sliding Inside a Bearish ChannelBitcoin remains firmly trapped inside a well-defined descending channel, and the structure is doing exactly what a controlled bearish market is supposed to do: lower highs, lower lows, and weak corrective bounces. From a price structure standpoint, the recent sell-off was impulsive, breaking multiple short-term supports and accelerating price into the lower half of the channel. The bounce we are seeing now is purely corrective, capped below the descending channel resistance and the dynamic EMA, which is acting as active supply, not support. The orange projection highlights the most probable path: - A weak relief rally toward channel mid / EMA resistance - Followed by continuation lower, targeting the next liquidity pocket The highlighted horizontal zone around 74,500–75,000 is not strong demand, it is a reaction zone, already tested and partially consumed. Once price revisits this area again, the probability favors acceptance below, opening the door toward the next major liquidity magnet near 71,900. Trend & Momentum Context: Trend bias: Bearish (lower timeframe) Market behavior: Controlled distribution, not capitulation No structural sign of accumulation (no base, no absorption, no higher low) Macro & Liquidity Logic: Risk assets are currently repricing under tighter financial conditions and reduced speculative appetite. Until Bitcoin reclaims the upper boundary of the descending channel with acceptance, any bounce should be treated as sell-side liquidity, not trend reversal. Key Takeaway: This is not a dip to buy blindly. As long as Bitcoin remains inside this descending channel, rallies are reactions, and continuation risk points lower. The market is leaking liquidity patiently, structurally, and without panic.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by HENRY_TraderGold
2
ETHUSD CRACK! Wave 3 Warning!🚨When it rains, it pours. We’re seeing concurrent breakdowns across multiple asset classes, consistent with the risks I’ve been flagging for some time. ETH is at stage 5️⃣ Panic / Liquidity Event, more on this later. ETH is now down -47% from ATH, after Wave 1 down. ETH has been trading below the Death Cross X countertrend Wave 2, flagging out "Deeking"(Honey ticking) Now it is Cracking the Flag. (Like many other asset classes) 🚩 Warning us that Wave 3 down is coming! 1️⃣ Early Drop (-5% to -10%) — Denial Phase 2️⃣ Correction Phase (-10% to -20%) — Reassurance Phase 3️⃣ Official Bear Market (-20%) — Commitment Trap 4️⃣ Deep Decline (-30%) — Moral Pressure Phase 5️⃣ Panic / Liquidity Event (-40% to -50%) — Narrative Flip 6️⃣ Late Stage / Bear Rally — False Hope At Stage 5️⃣ Panic, you will hear these phrases. “This was a black swan” “No one could’ve predicted this” “It’s different this time — but markets adapt” “Valuations are now attractive” “Big Money won’t allow a collapse” 📌 Translation: The damage is done. Rewrite history. I need to make another post to get you all ready for what is to come, so you don't get suckered like I did when I was first starting out. I paid the price, so you don't have to. #FAFO If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in raw truth, not hype.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by RealMacro
28
XRP: is the bounce a trap or a rally? key levels to watchXRP. Is this bounce the start of a squeeze or just another trap for late bulls? On the 4H chart we just got a heavy flush to recent lows while, according to market chatter, altcoins are under fresh regulatory and macro pressure and the whole crypto space went risk-off. Now buyers are reacting right from the same demand zone that launched the last impulsive rally, so this move deserves attention. On 4H, price defended the 1.50–1.55 area and is trying to hold back above the 1.60 breakdown level. RSI bounced from deep oversold with a clear bullish divergence, and the main volume node sits right here, hinting that strong hands are absorbing sells. With shorts loaded after the dump, I’m leaning toward a push higher rather than an instant new low. My base case: this rebound extends into the nearest supply zones around 1.72 then 1.79, with a possible stretch to 1.89 if momentum kicks in. I like longs on a small pullback that still respects 1.60, with invalidation under 1.55. If 1.55 breaks and we close below it, the bounce idea is dead for me and the door opens to another leg down ⚠️ I might be wrong, but right now the tape looks more like accumulation than panic.
by Trade_Logic_AI
2
Coinbase, weekly hidden bullish divergence NASDAQ:COIN has been getting rekt alongside Bitcoin. It has now closed below its weekly 200EMA and below the weekly pivot, a very bearish sign and it must recover to feel bullish again. Wave 2 of 5 now sits at he 0.786 fibonacci, a deep retracement for this stock. If price falls below $141, hidden bullish divergence will be negated and the Elliot wave count is invalidated and a macro wave 2 is in play. Price has fallen out of the multiyear uptrend line. Ugly Safe trasing
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
1