HBAR Breakdown or Bounce? This Zone Decides EverythingYello Paradisers, did you see that perfect tap into our key demand zone? After a prolonged move inside the descending channel, #HBAR has finally reached a critical decision point, and what happens next could define the mid-term trend.
💎#HBARUSDT has been respecting the descending resistance and support flawlessly, but now we’re seeing the first signs of a potential reversal forming right at the confluence of the demand zone and the major support area. This is where real opportunities are born, but also where inexperienced traders often get wrecked by jumping in too early or without confirmation.
💎If buyers step in with strength here and push through the descending resistance, the next upside target sits near $0.11291. Beyond that, we’re eyeing the strong resistance at $0.15125, which would complete a textbook breakout from the current structure. But until then, this is still a reactionary zone, not a confirmed trend shift.
💎A failure to hold above $0.085 would weaken the setup, and any move below 0.070 would completely invalidate the bullish scenario, opening room for further downside. This is why discipline is everything here. No need to rush. The real money is made waiting for the clearest signal, not forcing it.
Patience is key now. This is a moment where discipline will separate the pros from the crowd.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
Crypto
EURUSD: Bullish Trap to Bearish Continuation (H1)....This is a 1-hour EURUSD chart showing a fake bullish breakout into a premium supply zone, followed by a clear shift to bearish market structure. After the stop-hunt/liquidity grab (circled), price rolls over and respects a descending channel, confirming bearish control. The Ichimoku cloud aligns as dynamic resistance, and price continues to print lower highs and lower lows. A downside target is projected near prior demand/liquidity, suggesting continuation of the bearish move.
Bitcoin Is Not Bouncing — It’s Sliding Inside a Bearish ChannelBitcoin remains firmly trapped inside a well-defined descending channel, and the structure is doing exactly what a controlled bearish market is supposed to do: lower highs, lower lows, and weak corrective bounces.
From a price structure standpoint, the recent sell-off was impulsive, breaking multiple short-term supports and accelerating price into the lower half of the channel. The bounce we are seeing now is purely corrective, capped below the descending channel resistance and the dynamic EMA, which is acting as active supply, not support.
The orange projection highlights the most probable path:
- A weak relief rally toward channel mid / EMA resistance
- Followed by continuation lower, targeting the next liquidity pocket
The highlighted horizontal zone around 74,500–75,000 is not strong demand, it is a reaction zone, already tested and partially consumed. Once price revisits this area again, the probability favors acceptance below, opening the door toward the next major liquidity magnet near 71,900.
Trend & Momentum Context:
Trend bias: Bearish (lower timeframe)
Market behavior: Controlled distribution, not capitulation
No structural sign of accumulation (no base, no absorption, no higher low)
Macro & Liquidity Logic:
Risk assets are currently repricing under tighter financial conditions and reduced speculative appetite. Until Bitcoin reclaims the upper boundary of the descending channel with acceptance, any bounce should be treated as sell-side liquidity, not trend reversal.
Key Takeaway:
This is not a dip to buy blindly. As long as Bitcoin remains inside this descending channel, rallies are reactions, and continuation risk points lower. The market is leaking liquidity patiently, structurally, and without panic.
ETHUSD CRACK! Wave 3 Warning!🚨When it rains, it pours. We’re seeing concurrent breakdowns across multiple asset classes, consistent with the risks I’ve been flagging for some time.
ETH is at stage 5️⃣ Panic / Liquidity Event, more on this later.
ETH is now down -47% from ATH, after Wave 1 down.
ETH has been trading below the Death Cross X countertrend Wave 2, flagging out "Deeking"(Honey ticking)
Now it is Cracking the Flag. (Like many other asset classes)
🚩 Warning us that Wave 3 down is coming!
1️⃣ Early Drop (-5% to -10%) — Denial Phase
2️⃣ Correction Phase (-10% to -20%) — Reassurance Phase
3️⃣ Official Bear Market (-20%) — Commitment Trap
4️⃣ Deep Decline (-30%) — Moral Pressure Phase
5️⃣ Panic / Liquidity Event (-40% to -50%) — Narrative Flip
6️⃣ Late Stage / Bear Rally — False Hope
At Stage 5️⃣ Panic, you will hear these phrases.
“This was a black swan”
“No one could’ve predicted this”
“It’s different this time — but markets adapt”
“Valuations are now attractive”
“Big Money won’t allow a collapse”
📌 Translation: The damage is done. Rewrite history.
I need to make another post to get you all ready for what is to come, so you don't get suckered like I did when I was first starting out.
I paid the price, so you don't have to.
#FAFO
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in raw truth, not hype.
Support and Resistance in relation to SMCIn this video I go through a bit of my analysis as it pertains to the concepts of Support and Resistance, and how I use those ideologies to further add confluence to my bias, narrative, and trade setups.
This is in no way a p*ssing contest. Any combination of factors can create a positive edge, especially when experience comes into play. However, I prefer to actually understand what price is doing rather than rely on patterns alone.
- R2F Trading
BOME at Major Support Inside Descending ChannelBOME remains inside a long term descending channel and is currently trading directly above a major horizontal support zone. Price has already reacted from this level and is attempting to build a short term higher low structure.
This area is important because it sits at the lower boundary of the channel, where previous downside moves have slowed. As long as this support continues to hold, price may attempt a corrective move toward the mid range of the channel, followed by a potential test of descending resistance.
A clean breakdown below this support would invalidate the recovery attempt and open the door for further downside continuation. This zone should define the next meaningful move.
COIN Analysis - February 02, 2026: Oversold Bargain?COIN Analysis - February 02, 2026: Oversold Bargain? – Graham's Margin Meets Buffett's Moat
Overview
Coinbase (COIN) closed at $189.21, down 2.84% amid a crypto market retreat, with Bitcoin slipping below $80,000 and triggering sell-offs in related stocks like COIN, MSTR, and others. Key drivers include spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and regulatory scrutiny, but fundamentals shine: Q4 revenue beat expectations at $2.1B (up 111% YoY), driven by transaction fees and tokenized assets. Through Graham's lens, COIN trades at a P/E of 16.36 (near his <15 threshold for value) with EPS of $11.57, offering a margin of safety amid volatility; Buffett would value its economic moat from network effects, regulatory compliance, and 43%+ profit margins, positioning it as a durable compounder in the "everything exchange" era.
Technical Analysis
The daily chart displays a falling wedge pattern in a downtrend, trading below both SMAs with contracting volume signaling potential exhaustion. RSI at extreme oversold levels hints at a reversal, while MACD shows bearish momentum but divergence potential. Weekly confirms the long-term breakdown below the 200-SMA, but support near $185-190 aligns with prior lows.
| Indicator | Value | Interpretation |
| Price | $189.21 | Bearish context, deep discount to averages |
| Daily Change | -2.84% | Down trend tied to crypto weakness |
| SMA 50 | $243.97 | Overhead resistance |
| SMA 200 | $291.06 | Long-term bearish until reclaimed |
| RSI 14 | 17.71 | Oversold, strong reversal candidate |
| MACD | -14.84 | Bearish momentum |
| Signal Line | -11.26 | Below signal, sell crossover persisting |
| Volume | 8.57M | Declining, implies fading seller conviction |
The wedge suggests a bullish breakout above $200 could target $244 (50-SMA), with confluence from oversold RSI and Bitcoin's key support. Downside risks a test of $143 if $185 breaks. Fundamentals bolster the case: Graham's criteria (P/B 3.35 reasonable for growth, current ratio >2 from strong balance sheet) indicate undervaluation at 54.8% below 52-week high; Buffett's focus on ROE (26% estimated) and free cash flow growth (despite recent dips) highlights COIN's competitive advantage in crypto infrastructure.
Market Sentiment and Catalysts
Short-term sentiment is bearish, with X discussions noting short covering potential but overall caution amid Bitcoin's slide and negative premiums. However, analysts rate it a "Buy" with a $376.74 target (98% upside), citing user growth and RWA expansion despite volatility. Upcoming catalysts: Q4 earnings on February 12 (EPS estimate $1.06, revenue $1.84B), Fed rate decisions, and potential SEC ETF approvals.
Prediction and Trade Setup
Bullish Scenario: RSI bounce and wedge breakout above $200, with Bitcoin >$80K, targets $244 then $280. Entry on volume >10M; stop below $185. Aligns with Graham/Buffett: Buy at discount to intrinsic value (estimated $300+ via DCF on 6% CAGR).
Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below $185 amid crypto weakness targets $143. Entry on MACD confirmation; stops above $200.
Invalidation: Bullish flips below $180; bearish above $200.
Risk-reward: 1:3 on longs, size 1% risk – Graham's safety margin via low debt (48%) and Buffett's moat support holding through volatility.
SWOT Analysis
**Strengths:** Coinbase holds market leadership in crypto exchanges with strong brand trust, regulatory compliance, and diversified revenue (e.g., trading, subscriptions, stablecoins). Robust growth (94% YoY revenue in recent quarters) and technological edge in security/infrastructure provide a durable moat.
**Weaknesses:** Heavy reliance on volatile trading fees, high operational expenses (e.g., tech development), and vulnerability to cyber threats/regulatory shifts limit efficiency. Elevated customer acquisition costs and revenue concentration in key assets like Bitcoin/Ethereum add risks.
**Opportunities:** Expanding into tokenized assets, international markets (e.g., EU via MiCA license), and derivatives/staking amid pro-crypto policies could drive growth. Rising adoption (e.g., onchain activity, ETFs) positions COIN as infrastructure leader, akin to AWS for blockchain.
**Threats:** Intense competition from Binance/Robinhood, market volatility, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty (e.g., SEC scrutiny) could erode share; crypto downturns amplify downside.
What do you think – is COIN's P/E and moat the ultimate value play in crypto, or too risky for Graham purists? Comment your thoughts
Bitcoin - Starting the final -30% drop!🛟Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is dropping another -30%:
🔎Analysis summary:
The underlying trend on Bitcoin remains clearly bullish. But following the unusual curve channel, Bitcoin perfectly rejected the upper resistance curve. Quite likely therefore that Bitcoin will now create another bullish break and retest and first drop -30%.
📝Levels to watch:
$55,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
XRP: is the bounce a trap or a rally? key levels to watchXRP. Is this bounce the start of a squeeze or just another trap for late bulls? On the 4H chart we just got a heavy flush to recent lows while, according to market chatter, altcoins are under fresh regulatory and macro pressure and the whole crypto space went risk-off. Now buyers are reacting right from the same demand zone that launched the last impulsive rally, so this move deserves attention.
On 4H, price defended the 1.50–1.55 area and is trying to hold back above the 1.60 breakdown level. RSI bounced from deep oversold with a clear bullish divergence, and the main volume node sits right here, hinting that strong hands are absorbing sells. With shorts loaded after the dump, I’m leaning toward a push higher rather than an instant new low.
My base case: this rebound extends into the nearest supply zones around 1.72 then 1.79, with a possible stretch to 1.89 if momentum kicks in. I like longs on a small pullback that still respects 1.60, with invalidation under 1.55. If 1.55 breaks and we close below it, the bounce idea is dead for me and the door opens to another leg down ⚠️ I might be wrong, but right now the tape looks more like accumulation than panic.
Bitcoin | BTC | Healthy Pullback Before Another Pump?So much negativity about this Bitcoin pullback makes the contrarian in me says this is purely a healthy pullback to its current historical mean (see band /lines on chart). I suspect a bounce between $79,800 and $89,720 to potentially match previous highs or form new ones. If not, and the price falls massively through this area... watch out for a wild ride across the markets...
CCUSDT.P: long setup from daily resistance at 0.18270BINANCE:CCUSDT.P has been in a prolonged accumulation phase. Notably, it did not crash to the lows after listing, indicating the asset is liquid and supported.
Yesterday's daily candle closed right at its High, near the resistance level. This is a very strong signal that the trend is likely to continue. Today, we have been consolidating below the level all day, and right now, the price is hugging it closely. The 4H timeframe also closed at its highs.
The probability of a breakout is extremely high.
AXSUSDT.P: short setup from 4h support at 2.043BINANCE:AXSUSDT.P has entered a consolidation phase following a strong rally. This range is wide enough to allow for trading inside the structure.
I have identified a local level, relying primarily on the 4H timeframe. The asset has been trading just above this support for an extended period. Recently, there was a tap on the level, and now we are seeing a close retest developing — this is a strong bearish (Short) signal.
Since this is an intra-range trade and not a breakout from the major consolidation channel, we might not see a massive move. However, securing a solid 5R (5 to 1) risk-to-reward ratio is highly feasible.
ENSOUSDT.P: long setup from daily resistance at 1.6399BINANCE:ENSOUSDT.P is in a bullish trend. After a strong rally, it consolidated for a few days. Now, a solid pre-breakout base is forming right under the 1.6399 resistance, which acts as the upper boundary of the trading channel.
I have mixed feelings about the Daily timeframe because the asset has already extended significantly today. However, on the 4H timeframe, we see clear price compression towards the level with decreasing volatility. On the 5m chart, the price tested the level multiple times without a deep rejection or correction, which would be the normal reaction here.
The logic: When we don't see the expected reaction (a pullback), that catches my attention. If an asset rallies hard and still has the strength to hold highs and consolidate right under resistance, it signals a strong buyer.
Conditions: Volatility must not increase before the breakout. The entry must strictly follow the system rules. Given the overextended Daily chart (which is the primary one), I will be extremely cautious with this trade, or might skip it entirely if the setup isn't perfect.
ENSOUSDT: short setup from daily support at 1.2632BINANCE:ENSOUSDT.P is correcting as expected following the pump.
The initial decline halted at the 1.2632 level. The following day, we witnessed a False Breakout relative to this price, which confirms the level's validity (as a False Breakout can only occur relative to a significant level). Essentially, a False Breakout represents the asset's inability to sustain a price below or above a certain point.
What do we see next? weakness. The asset failed to take out yesterday's High. Since we cannot go up, we are now seeing a gradual approach — a slow bleed — back toward our established support at 1.2632.
This gradual approach is clearly visible on the 4H timeframe and signals a strong bearish intent. This is not a panic dump; it is a methodical move where every limit buy order standing in the way is being slowly and confidently absorbed. Such clarity and precision in price action suggest that strong capital is driving this move.
Therefore, the breakdown of this level is simply a matter of time. Disclaimer: This is the crypto market. Anything can happen at any moment, and even the most professional analysis can be invalidated instantly. Always remember this.
FRAXUSDT: short setup from daily support at 0.76BINANCE:FRAXUSDT.P is confidently approaching its all-time lows.
Right now, the price is consolidating above the 0.76 level, positioning itself, in my view, for further downside. What caught my attention is the massive drop on Jan 25, followed by the asset simply "hanging" just above the support with minimal volatility. Normally, volatility decreases gradually. Here, we saw a ~25% crash, and the very next day, volatility dropped by a factor of 3.5. This is abnormal.
Two negative factors:
High volatility on the working timeframe (5m).
Immediately below 0.76 lies the historical low (ATL) of 0.742, which could act as an obstacle to a free fall.
My Plan:
Given these factors, I am waiting for the character of the movement to change. Before the breakout, a clean entry point must form on low volatility. I need to see abnormal calmness for this asset — no large, erratic bars.
Looking at the 4H timeframe, observing how cleanly the asset is consolidating and how many times it has hit the 0.76 support, I would still look to initiate a Short from this level.
SOLUSDT – Long-Term Accumulation Setup (Not Momentum-Based)Solana (SOL) is approaching a major support zone around $95–$100, potentially setting up for a long-term accumulation opportunity. If broader crypto adoption continues and SOL eventually reclaims and breaks its previous All-Time High (ATH), this level could prove to be a high-conviction entry for patient investors.
🔸 This is NOT a momentum play.
🔸 We're scaling in slowly to manage risk and exposure.
🔸 Idea is to build position during consolidation and fear, not chase breakouts.
🧾 Trade Setup
Entry Zone: $95 – $100
Take Profit 1: $160 – $170
Take Profit 2: $260 – $280
Stop Loss: $77 (below structural support)
Accumulation, Manipulation, and DistributionMarkets do not move randomly. They rotate through phases that allow large participants to build positions, protect those positions, and eventually exit them. Accumulation, manipulation, and distribution describe this rotation. They are not patterns to trade blindly. They are a framework for understanding why price behaves the way it does at certain locations.
Accumulation occurs when price moves sideways after a decline or during a pause in a larger trend. Volatility contracts, ranges tighten, and progress slows. This is not indecision. It is inventory building. Large positions cannot be entered in one candle without moving price against themselves. Accumulation allows orders to be filled gradually while keeping price contained. Breakouts during this phase often fail because the market is still absorbing liquidity, not ready to expand.
Manipulation is the transition phase. Once enough inventory is built, the market seeks liquidity to fuel expansion. This usually appears as a sharp move beyond the range highs or lows. Stops are triggered, breakout traders enter, and price briefly accelerates. If the move lacks follow-through and quickly reclaims the range, it signals that the breakout was used to fill orders, not to establish direction. The purpose is not deception for its own sake. It is efficient execution.
Distribution follows expansion. After a directional move, price begins to stall. Impulses weaken, volatility compresses, and progress slows again.
This is where positions built earlier are reduced or closed. Distribution often forms near obvious highs or after extended trends, where late participants are still entering with confidence. Liquidity becomes available again, allowing exits without collapsing price immediately.
These phases repeat across timeframes.
A small accumulation on a lower timeframe can exist inside a higher timeframe distribution. This nesting explains why markets can trend strongly while still producing frequent false signals intraday. The phase you are trading matters more than the setup you are using.
The practical edge comes from alignment. Accumulation favors patience and waiting for confirmation. Manipulation requires restraint, not chasing. Distribution demands risk management and reduced exposure. When traders misidentify the phase, they trade against the market’s purpose. When they recognize it, execution becomes calmer, risk becomes clearer, and losses become easier to control.
Understanding accumulation, manipulation, and distribution does not predict exact turning points. It explains intent. When you trade with that intent instead of reacting to candles, you stop fighting the market and start working with it.
BTCUSD — Intraday Long (Expectation)I’m considering long exposure within the 75,400–76,000 range.
Context:
Daily composite support
Local sell-side absorption
Buyer stimulation visible after sell lock-in
Ideally, I want to see a controlled bullish impulse from the zone to confirm acceptance.
Targets:
78,800
79,200
Invalidation:
Sustained acceptance below 74,900.
No confirmation — no trade.
Risk will be kept minimal and strictly managed.
BTC — Daily OutlookBTC has swept sell-side liquidity and is currently trading inside a major HTF demand zone.
From a higher timeframe perspective:
Daily structure remains bearish
Price is still below key resistance and previous range support
This keeps the move counter-trend for now
However, important context:
The sell-off showed signs of exhaustion
Liquidity below recent lows has been taken
Price is reacting from a HTF demand / range low
This creates conditions for a potential reversal, but confirmation is required.
What needs to happen next?
A clear LTF MSB (Market Structure Shift)to the upside
Followed by a clean retest holding above the higher low
Bullish displacement would strengthen the case
Without a confirmed MSS:
Any bounce remains a reaction, not a reversal
Longs are early and aggressive
Key levels:
HTF Demand: 74K – 78K
First resistance: ~90K
Major resistance: ~96K
Only acceptance back above resistance would open room for continuation.
Until then:
Bias = cautiously bullish
Patience over prediction
👍 Like if this level makes sense
💬 Comment if you expect continuation or another sweep
MrC
BTC/USDT | moving slowly! (READ THE CAPTION)As you can see in the daily chart of BTCUSDT, BTC went through a massive drop, going as low as $74,600! Currently it's being traded at 77,950 and in the Bullish OB range, I expect BTC to make a move towards the high of the Bullish OB and then see how it moves after reaching there.
Targets: 78,200, 78,800, 79,400 and 80,000.






















