VictorCobra

VictorCobra

As I'm sure you've noticed, my posts have really slowed down. I'm just focusing on other things in my life, and it's mostly been good. Some hard times very recently, but that's how it goes. I hope you are all alright and trading safely :) Now...to Bitcoin. Volume is declining overall as less actual Bitcoin is traded. Hardly any coins have been sent to exchanges,...

VictorCobra Updated 

Hey Tradingview. As my posts have really become sparse, I tend to only write when something pretty significant occurs. Right now, Bitcoin has made it all the way from $15.5k, back up close to its all-time-high from 2021. That's a pretty substantial feat. What it proves is that if a thing exists that can make money, people will buy it. Even if I write a...

VictorCobra Updated 

This is my first post in some time. As I stated before, I'm largely moving on from crypto. I'm still here, paying attention to the market. I've also created a site for my fiction writing. Eventually, I may migrate some of these posts over there as representations of my non-fiction speculative market analysis. Anyway, on to the important stuff. Bitcoin did not...

VictorCobra Updated 

Volume aligns with a weekly top, and there is a bearish divergence brewing. Of course, it's possible that the large sell volume is only indicative of Bitcoin moving around during the ETF launch. So, that's important to consider when assuming price will drop heavily from here. I'm fundamentally bearish on Bitcoin, not because I don't think higher prices are out...

VictorCobra Updated 

Above is Blackrock's new Bitcoin ETF. This is mostly a joke and a "wait and see" post. I'm curious whether the liquidity generated by these Bitcoin ETF's creates a permanent resistance at their opening day high, which is around $30 for IBIT. I'm speculating that Bitcoin may never again breach $50k. Again, I'm partially kidding with this post but wouldn't be...

VictorCobra Updated 

Amidst my re-evaluation of markets, divestment from crypto, and future planning, I'm slowly building a long term position in CYBIN. As a therapist who also happens to be a fan of psychedelics, this one fits me well. I think it can continue to flounder around, and perhaps test some even lower levels. Just looking for optimal entry points now, and managed to scoop...

VictorCobra Updated 

In May of 2022, I called the long term top for Ethereum and final distribution. I sold all my ETH above $3k after purchasing most of mine below $150. A year ago, I called ETH's rally from the sub-$1k lows to be the first major bear market rally. Since then, ETH has continuously failed to go higher. This past May, I showed how ETH could end up back below $500....

VictorCobra Updated 

Bitcoin is starting to look bullish on the weekly/monthly timeframe. Price had a strong monthly close above the 9 month EMA and the 50, which I've mentioned needed to hold for any bullish continuation. This is despite the SEC crackdown. I find it quite suspicious that Blackrock and others filed for Bitcoin ETF's shortly after that. Another example of why things...

VictorCobra

Hooo boy, all those fund managers who were telling people to go balls to the walls on bonds earlier this year assuming interest rates would be lowered were truly addicted to the era of easy money. Some people have lost a lot recently. And it seems people are trying to now catch the falling knife (including myself, as I will explain). In the above charts, you can...

VictorCobra Updated 

Not really a surprise here. After briefly heading higher, Litecoin has drifted back into the range it's been in since the beginning of the year. Since the failed breakout, I think it means Litecoin will need to test the lower bounds of the trading range and hope to God it finds buyers. I called the end to the rally a bit prematurely a couple of months ago: You...

VictorCobra Updated 

Although in the past, I've been a supporter of XRP, and especially XLM, I ultimately realized the cryptocurrency itself is not particularly user-friendly, considering a tag and an address are both required. Minimum balances are also required. I also began to see through Brad Garlinghouse's smugness, and the obvious market manipulation. Nevertheless, as far as...

VictorCobra Updated 

LItecoin is currently barely holding onto the 200 day MA (teal), and has already retraced heavily from its pre-halving rally peak while failing to get back into the long term uptrend channel. In mid-2019, when LTC began breaking down, it was a sign the market-wide relief bounce was over. Now, the environment is way worse. I'm not going to even bother deep-diving...

VictorCobra Updated 

I think this will be my last update on Bitcoin during this consolidation period below $31k. The period could end soon, but regardless of when the next big wave occurs, this is an attempt to illustrate, in advance, the WHY behind the next move. As I've mentioned several times already, the monthly 9 EMA (orange) and the 50 MA (red) seem to be quite important. This...

VictorCobra Updated 

A lot of investors are probably asking, WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? We're seeing unbelievable amounts of deleveraging, not just in the cryptocurrency market. Over the last several months, I have posted consistently on why I believed there was significant risk for something like this to occur. Within the crypto market itself, we're now seeing consistent bad news....

VictorCobra Updated 

Above, you can see that Bitcoin is currently back to 2017 ATH levels when weighted against the S&P 500. In addition, Bitcoin has also sustained a breakdown below both long term trendlines against the index. I can't really be more generous than that. Even if stocks have already hit bottom, I think Bitcoin is unlikely to outperform again, at least for many years. If...

VictorCobra Updated 

Here on the left, I've shown the BLX chart (Bitcoin index with the longest price history, plus its log curve) and the broken long term uptrend on the Litecoin chart on the right. Why Litecoin? Well, the 2017 bull market was characterized by astronomical gains for Bitcoin alternatives. At that time, it was about which functioned as the best currency. Litecoin and...

VictorCobra

If you're a fan of workers' rights, I suggest taking a look at Fran Drescher's speech about SAG- AFTRA's unanimous decision to strike. It really gets at the pathos and the gravity of our current moment in history. Markets are currently in an upwards trajectory. This is off the back of supposed cooling inflation, a strong labor force, and the emergence of AI into...

VictorCobra Updated 

I am mostly burnt out on writing commentary on Bitcoin/crypto as a whole, especially as things have largely played out in alliance with my speculations over the last 18 months. Instead, I will provide periodic technical updates. First, I'll provide my own sentiment about traditional markets. WHAT'S GOING ON WITH STOCKS? On the linear scale, it looks like the...