Litecoin Shows The Way Down The Toilet

LItecoin is currently barely holding onto the 200 day MA (teal), and has already retraced heavily from its pre-halving rally peak while failing to get back into the long term uptrend channel. In mid-2019, when LTC began breaking down, it was a sign the market-wide relief bounce was over. Now, the environment is way worse. I'm not going to even bother deep-diving on what's happening with Bitcoin at the moment, but it just goes to show you that the tech is not adoptable and is very unlikely to save the general public, even if banks collapse. If banks collapse, we have a lot more to worry about than the next Bitcoin block.

Litecoin is well below its long term uptrend on Bitfinex and failing to get back above a weekly death cross (YIKES).

Let's see if Litecoin serves as a bellwether. My guess it LTC will head at least down to the $59-66 support zone again IF it starts closing below the 200 day MA here near $81. If the $59 level breaks, I think it'll start to see some new historic lows.

Should Litecoin begins to really break down here, I expect Bitcoin to retrace back to the 200 day MA (near $22k), and ultimately break it to the downside.

What I write is my opinion and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice.

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It looks like things went differently from how I was expecting in the short term, which obviously CAN HAPPEN because it's impossible to be correct all the time. Even though I tend to think I'm pretty good at reading the market, you'd probably find that only half of my calls have been accurate, just as with anyone else.

But this is why risk management is key. Just because Litecoin printed a false breakdown, it does not mean I have to abandon my thesis. But, there is the possibility Litecoin can continue to push higher. In crypto, the whales are experts at manufacturing FOMO and screwing over traders.

Here's the current structure:

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If LTC can actually manage to stay above the 50 week MA here (near $71.50), then it can produce a sizable rally. Depends on stocks and the rest of crypto, though it can also pump independently. A more clear bearish signal would be a quick return to below the 50 week MA (red), flipping it back into resistance.

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LTC/BTC chart

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Funnily enough, despite the short-term rally, Litecoin is still in danger of a massive breakdown on the weekly, should the 50 week MA fail to hold here.

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After yet another failed high, Litecoin is already back to the 50 week MA. Bulls better hope it holds. Really pathetic halving performance. As usual, I bet a bunch of people got caught being greedy. This is perhaps a warning to some of you in the comments. Really needs to bounce here for bulls to live another day :)

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Hope the people who were very sure of themselves booked some profit.