I am mostly burnt out on writing commentary on Bitcoin/crypto as a whole, especially as things have largely played out in alliance with my speculations over the last 18 months. Instead, I will provide periodic technical updates. First, I'll provide my own sentiment about traditional markets.
WHAT'S GOING ON WITH STOCKS?
On the linear scale, it looks like the Nasdaq could be headed for a double - top (of course, only speculation).
Even on the log scale, it looks a little like it's headed for a blow-off.
Right now, we are unsure whether broader markets have already completed their bearish cycle and are on their way to more significant all-time highs. My opinion is that in order for meaningful wealth redistribution to occur, and in order for infrastructure/education/environmental conditions to improve in the U.S, markets will need to come down - particularly real estate. If they do not, I think our current problems are likely to become worse. I would also be extremely surprised if the big credit bubble does not pop.
Think of it this way: A lot of energy is locked up in asset values and capital markets. This energy ceases to go anywhere when material conditions for the average person do not improve. The stock market was originally invented to benefit all Americans. We are far from that reality.
Of course, things can just continue up, which I believe is the less healthy scenario. In my opinion, it is better to rip the bandaid off and have momentary crisis, rather than continue delaying the inevitable, only causing the wound to marinate in its own puss, eventually becoming necrotic to the point of systemic collapse. That's where I believe we're headed if markets continue upwards. But, as I said already, I'm burnt out talking about all this stuff. Whatever's gonna happen will happen, and that's that.
NOW BACK TO BITCOIN
On the left, we have the monthly chart. On the right, is the weekly, showing the death cross and the continuously declining 100 MA (yellow). Price is in a particularly decisive moment. Yet again, we see posters calling for a return to 21K or new lows OR the beginning of a new bull run. Here are the charts showing only moving averages, since the main charts didn't seem to remove my lines.
What needs to happen for a new bull run: Bitcoin will need to continue holding the 9 month EMA (orange) and certainly the 50 month MA (red). On the weekly, Bitcoin needs to stay above the 50 week MA (red, near $22.2k) on any sizable drop from here. Ideally, a golden cross will need to materialize. This requires another substantial push up from here - even towards $50k.
Bitcoin will also need to really start performing better than stocks on bigger timeframes. Otherwise, it just seems like a leveraged version of the Nasdaq. BTC/SPX will need to move up substantially from these levels.
What needs to happen for new lows: Bitcoin will need to break below both those monthly moving averages and cause a bearish cross of the 9 over the 50 - something that has never happened before. On the weekly, Bitcoin would need to drop back below the 50 week MA. Staying below that level for many weeks could cause the 200 week MA (teal, former long term "support") to begin sloping down. This could indicate a longer term reversal to the downside, with new lows to come.
My opinion is that given worsening fundamentals, Bitcoin and crypto markets will NOT attract the liquidity necessary to sustain higher prices, and will ultimately fade into a niche market. Normally, after a substantial drop, we see newly minted stablecoins flood the market to support prices. With all eyes watching, the jig is likely up., and we are unlikely to see such stablecoin "printing" moving forward.
30 years from now, we might see OG Bitcoiners trying to offload their BTC on eBay or craigslist , without an accessible intermediary to facilitate the trade (only partially kidding).
This is purely my opinion and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. Thank you for reading!
-Victor Cobra
WHAT'S GOING ON WITH STOCKS?
On the linear scale, it looks like the Nasdaq could be headed for a double - top (of course, only speculation).
Right now, we are unsure whether broader markets have already completed their bearish cycle and are on their way to more significant all-time highs. My opinion is that in order for meaningful wealth redistribution to occur, and in order for infrastructure/education/environmental conditions to improve in the U.S, markets will need to come down - particularly real estate. If they do not, I think our current problems are likely to become worse. I would also be extremely surprised if the big credit bubble does not pop.
Think of it this way: A lot of energy is locked up in asset values and capital markets. This energy ceases to go anywhere when material conditions for the average person do not improve. The stock market was originally invented to benefit all Americans. We are far from that reality.
Of course, things can just continue up, which I believe is the less healthy scenario. In my opinion, it is better to rip the bandaid off and have momentary crisis, rather than continue delaying the inevitable, only causing the wound to marinate in its own puss, eventually becoming necrotic to the point of systemic collapse. That's where I believe we're headed if markets continue upwards. But, as I said already, I'm burnt out talking about all this stuff. Whatever's gonna happen will happen, and that's that.
NOW BACK TO BITCOIN
On the left, we have the monthly chart. On the right, is the weekly, showing the death cross and the continuously declining 100 MA (yellow). Price is in a particularly decisive moment. Yet again, we see posters calling for a return to 21K or new lows OR the beginning of a new bull run. Here are the charts showing only moving averages, since the main charts didn't seem to remove my lines.
What needs to happen for a new bull run: Bitcoin will need to continue holding the 9 month EMA (orange) and certainly the 50 month MA (red). On the weekly, Bitcoin needs to stay above the 50 week MA (red, near $22.2k) on any sizable drop from here. Ideally, a golden cross will need to materialize. This requires another substantial push up from here - even towards $50k.
Bitcoin will also need to really start performing better than stocks on bigger timeframes. Otherwise, it just seems like a leveraged version of the Nasdaq. BTC/SPX will need to move up substantially from these levels.
What needs to happen for new lows: Bitcoin will need to break below both those monthly moving averages and cause a bearish cross of the 9 over the 50 - something that has never happened before. On the weekly, Bitcoin would need to drop back below the 50 week MA. Staying below that level for many weeks could cause the 200 week MA (teal, former long term "support") to begin sloping down. This could indicate a longer term reversal to the downside, with new lows to come.
My opinion is that given worsening fundamentals, Bitcoin and crypto markets will NOT attract the liquidity necessary to sustain higher prices, and will ultimately fade into a niche market. Normally, after a substantial drop, we see newly minted stablecoins flood the market to support prices. With all eyes watching, the jig is likely up., and we are unlikely to see such stablecoin "printing" moving forward.
30 years from now, we might see OG Bitcoiners trying to offload their BTC on eBay or craigslist , without an accessible intermediary to facilitate the trade (only partially kidding).
This is purely my opinion and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. Thank you for reading!
-Victor Cobra
Comment:
The next major weekly support for BItcoin is around $13.8k, should selling momentum increase. If the weekly death cross provides pressure from above, my assumption is new lows will occur.
Comment:
Here’s my most recent update, showing the potential for much higher prices if these monthly MA’s continue to hold as support and the weekly 100 is broken to the upside. This of course goes against my bias, but it is what it is. Those in charge of this market will do anything in their power to generate liquidity, even if the liquidity is largely fake. As I’ve mentioned numerous times, I do not expect higher prices to sustain. I still think it’s likely demand will be lacking, and prices will eventually make new lows in the longer term.
