Bitcoin is starting to look bullish on the weekly/monthly timeframe. Price had a strong monthly close above the 9 month EMA and the 50, which I've mentioned needed to hold for any bullish continuation. This is despite the SEC crackdown. I find it quite suspicious that Blackrock and others filed for Bitcoin ETF's shortly after that. Another example of why things still don't sit right with me. Price is now holding above the 200 week MA despite venturing below it. Now, price is consolidating above $30k.
As much as I've grown to dislike Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto space since 2021, the idea seems like it will continue to stick around, while distrust and dissatisfaction with governments continue from both the political left and the political right. I do not think this means anything good about near-term societal trends, which you can read about in previous posts.
I'd much rather make a video about this now, but Tradingview has made it impossible for me to successfully record my screen since some recent updates. I haven't been engaged enough on here to try and get it sorted out.
In any case, you can see that this is an incredibly important pivot point for Bitcoin. It's butting up against a major downtrend, the 100 week MA (yellow), and a previously broken uptrend. If it can continue consolidating here and break out, we could see a pretty huge upswing towards a new all-time high, maybe sooner than others are expecting. I am no longer much of a supporter of this market, or I would have been buying the lows (just my emotional bias speaking here). I am a little disappointed to see it doing so well, despite the clear manipulation, fraud, and rampant misrepresentation.
Something to pay attention to is the TOTAL crypto market cap, which looks far less bullish than Bitcoin itself. I am still worried about Stablecoins, and the implication of possible criminal investigation.
To make it clear: I am flipping a bit bullish in terms of price, but still bearish on fundamentals. On the bearish technical side, a close back below the 200 week MA after a high-volume selloff in this range should send price at least back to the $15k lows.
Of course, anything is possible! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. This represents my opinion, and is not meant as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
As much as I've grown to dislike Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto space since 2021, the idea seems like it will continue to stick around, while distrust and dissatisfaction with governments continue from both the political left and the political right. I do not think this means anything good about near-term societal trends, which you can read about in previous posts.
I'd much rather make a video about this now, but Tradingview has made it impossible for me to successfully record my screen since some recent updates. I haven't been engaged enough on here to try and get it sorted out.
In any case, you can see that this is an incredibly important pivot point for Bitcoin. It's butting up against a major downtrend, the 100 week MA (yellow), and a previously broken uptrend. If it can continue consolidating here and break out, we could see a pretty huge upswing towards a new all-time high, maybe sooner than others are expecting. I am no longer much of a supporter of this market, or I would have been buying the lows (just my emotional bias speaking here). I am a little disappointed to see it doing so well, despite the clear manipulation, fraud, and rampant misrepresentation.
Something to pay attention to is the TOTAL crypto market cap, which looks far less bullish than Bitcoin itself. I am still worried about Stablecoins, and the implication of possible criminal investigation.
To make it clear: I am flipping a bit bullish in terms of price, but still bearish on fundamentals. On the bearish technical side, a close back below the 200 week MA after a high-volume selloff in this range should send price at least back to the $15k lows.
Of course, anything is possible! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. This represents my opinion, and is not meant as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
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Just to emphasize how critical this juncture is:
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On the coinbase chart, you can see there really isn't much resistance above this area - but traders should still be careful of a long squeeze or false breakout.
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Based on the above, a break back down below the 50 week MA (red), for example, would confirm my original theory that Bitcoin could be entering a much longer downtrend. Invalidation occurs on a sustained breakout above this level, and if Bitcoin continues to hold above the 200 week.
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Bitcoin also really needs to start outperforming SPX again, to maintain a lot of its prior relevance, in my opinion.
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Now that I’ve finally posted a long setup, Bitcoin can head to $10k
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Technically, Bitcoin has still failed to break this resistance - so not truly out of the woods until above the 100 week MA. Same for TOTAL. Weekly and monthly MA’s must continue to be supportive for continued upside. We could see another retest soon.
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I meant *short squeeze* or false breakout. Not *long squeeze.* Alas, a misstype.
Anyway, to elaborate a little more, now that I’ve had a little more time to think about it: An ETF would not necessarily be good for price. There are plenty of ETF’s which seem to be in endless downtrends. A potential Bitcoin ETF could go the way of the weed market, especially if demand really drops over the coming years. Of course, this might happen once prices get to higher levels, so the big bois can make some money off it.
There’s also still the Michael Saylor wild card. He was one of the major reasons I flipped longer term bearish at the end of 2021. He continues to accumulate, and I think there is a chance he becomes a forced seller, or simply a drag on the market for other reasons.
Anyway, to elaborate a little more, now that I’ve had a little more time to think about it: An ETF would not necessarily be good for price. There are plenty of ETF’s which seem to be in endless downtrends. A potential Bitcoin ETF could go the way of the weed market, especially if demand really drops over the coming years. Of course, this might happen once prices get to higher levels, so the big bois can make some money off it.
There’s also still the Michael Saylor wild card. He was one of the major reasons I flipped longer term bearish at the end of 2021. He continues to accumulate, and I think there is a chance he becomes a forced seller, or simply a drag on the market for other reasons.
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Volume overall continues to decline, with Bitcoin failing to break out. A retest of the 200 week or 9 month EMA seems warranted. If it fails the test, the long setup would probably be invalidated.
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200 week is at $27k. This level should generally hold for any upside continuation.
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The 4H is oddly flat - but if Bitcoin is to push higher, it will ideally need to bounce right off that 200 MA (teal). Decision approaching pretty soon, I think.
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If Bitcoin is to continue up, it pretty much needs to bounce here.
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Welp, I guess that's that. Bitcoin failed to hold the uptrend. The only chance for bulls is if Bitcoin can get back into the uptrend, or at least hold above monthly MA's for the next couple weeks. A move back into the uptrend would be a strong buy signal.
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Overall, it looks like the market continues to move with my longer term bearish bias.
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A little update: Bitcoin was able to get back above the broken uptrend, a short-term bullish signal. Let's see if it can maintain above those weekly moving averages on any retrace.