FinkPro

FinkPro

In markets, we have millions if not billions of bits of information influencing us every second. We have what's going on in front of us on screens, even to the minutiae of how cold the room you're in is. Why is it that so many long to rest and relax usually, but when it comes to trading, many feel they need to be in the market to get something out of it? There...

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CNBC: U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% pace to start the year as pandemic recovery takes a hit First thing we need to do is ignore the headline completely and dig into the details. "Just tell me if it's good or bad!" It's not that simple. The problem with any broad-based measurement like GDP is that the good stuff is hiding in the details. Quick recap of the GDP...

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I've seen this comment thrown around a lot on FinTwit (financial markets Twitter) recently... Most people would know that things go up and down, even Joe Public, right? If they didn't, we'd just have an infinite up only business cycle and everyone would be exorbitantly wealthy - absolutely no relativity theory of give and take at all. I completely disagree with...

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Well, well, well... Interesting chart we have here. If you're a keen central bank watcher like we are at Macrodesiac, then you'll have certain comments signposted at certain dates and prices. The first one to take note of is Draghi's comment back in July 2012... WHATEVER IT TAKES This phrase is famed for 'saving' the euro back then during the sovereign debt...

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I spent the weekend thinking about the housing market. Annoyingly, once a seed takes root in my mind it's going nowhere until it's fully grown. That seed started out as "What's the biggest risk for the Fed/inflation?" To my mind, it's this 👇 US WAGES, BENFITS RISE TO 2 DECADE HIGH AS INFLATION PICKS UP That's a summary of the last Employment Cost Index. You...

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By now, if you haven't heard about Netflix's results then you've surely been living under a rock! The key driver of the price decline was the first decline in subscribers in 10 years in Q1... -200k But the real story here isn't Netflix's decline, but the way a one Bill Ackman has responded to the price decline. If you don't know Bill Ackman, he's the famed...

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Analysts have been asking if China will allow the Yuan to weaken for ages, and now it's starting, everyone's gone quiet... Why is China's currency weakening now? One explanation is yield differentials. Once upon a time, you could invest in Chinese bonds and earn a lovely premium vs US yields for doing so. That isn't the case now 👇 Chinese yields have...

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Japanese officials are getting very uncomfortable with the recent yen weakness. USDJPY sliced through 128 earlier, and looks set for a move to 130 in no time. Finance Minister Suzuki repeated his mantra that “Stability is important and sharp currency moves are undesirable”. Then he took it a step further, questioning the merit of the weak yen policy... “Weak...

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This chart shows AMEX:XHB the Homebuilders ETF vs ECONOMICS:USCSHPIYY the Case Shiller House Price Index YoY... What do you notice? Well, one data set is lagged by the other. Housebuilders are far more sensitive and closer to the macroeconomic realities and housing supply and demand than the general population on aggregate (because it's their business to...

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This is a big issue for the ECB, and they're very much between a rock and a hard place. For years the bank has kept policy extremely easy, and the economy has largely become used to this. However, they are now facing an inflation backdrop that ironically, they probably could only dream of 10 years ago (OK maybe not as high as it currently is, but you get the...

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'US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I DO NOT EXPECT A RECESSION TO OCCUR IN THE US.' Janet Yellen said this yesterday. The market disagrees. Right now, we're seeing the 2s10s curve flatten. When this happens, the market is expecting long term rates to fall relative to short term rates, or in other words, they're expecting bad times ahead. Traditionally, the 2s10s...

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Here we have the MOVE index. This expresses the volatility in bond yields, and to an extent, 'fear' in the bond market. It seems to be quite under the radar right now, but I want to outline why this is important. The index is currently above the March 2020 settlement high... And yet US equities haven't necessarily reacted to this move just yet. But we're...

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'Where's your head at?' If you've never watched Love Island - I have a girlfriend so I am practically forced to - this is a question that is asked by the contestants to their prospective partners to figure out the basic human relationship formation, as to whether someone actually likes them or not. I like to use visual imagery to see whether it lines up with my...

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This picture is of vital importance. It's something that you simply have to try to recognise when trading, whether you're multi asset, trading only crypto, FX, equities - it simply doesn't matter, since sentiment is indiscriminate and uncaring as to your asset class. In each section, we've got what is occurring at each stage. 1) Risk off. 2) The start of the...

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In short, we don't think so. In the chart above, you're seeing the 10y30y spread and the 10y yield. The 10s30s is a barometer of the inflation risk premium. And quite frankly, the market isn't buying that inflation will be sustained. Yes, the 10y yield is indicating perhaps to many that there is some kind of inflation risk, but from the Macrodesiac view, all...

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I think reflection is good. I got this idea from my colleague at TradingView, Scheplick . Give him a follow. He's been doing a list like this for a few years now, which you can read here. Let's get started then... 1) Be prepared to throw every belief you have out of the window. 2) Timeline matters. Being too early is being wrong. 3) It's probably better to...

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I hope you find this idea of use. Linear regression is a great tool to look at considering all we are doing in markets is looking at probabilistic outcomes.

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There's a tonne of myths out there to do with markets and trading, some which are totally bullshit and others which are half truths, embellished to their fullest. We're going to take a look at some of these and see what the real story is behind these tales. The myth about free trading apps You've probably seen adverts recently for free trading apps or...