FinkPro

FinkPro

I receive bank research each day... I'll drop some of their comments here/ Euro Citi: EUR trades marginally below overnight highs around 1.1730 at the time of writing (-0.1% in Asia). As a reminder, CitiFX Strategy still believes the EURUSD correction has room to go and it is not yet time to fade it. Several factors, including a slightly less dovish Fed,...

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So we are probably all aware of the stock market sell off that is currently occurring. It's likely due to a combination of things... The reflation trade reaching a short term top... The holiday weekend profit taking... And a bit of a rotation out of tech to value. Stocks have been hit pretty hard. And when stocks are hit hard... The financial media have a...

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If you’re new to this side of the markets, it may seem overwhelming at first. Don’t worry! "Macroeconomics" sounds way more complicated than it actually is. Getting involved & learning by osmosis really is the best way. Knowledge & understanding quickly build up. We are going to focus primarily on news flow and sentiment. It’s a broad topic, so let’s break...

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Hey guys. As a macro trader, I really need to look at a wide variety of indicators and market data, whether economic or price based. However, I HATE many of the other charts that are out there. So I'd like to introduce you to a little known trick. Have you heard of Quandl? They provide alternate data sets for loads of different types of things, whether it's...

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FinkPro

Answering any macro focused questions you may have!

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FinkPro

In this climate, stocks should be lower... Why are they still pushing higher? Let's find an answer.

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FinkPro

We're simply looking at the difference between two stimulus regimes. With the BoE indicating that there would be a cap to stimulus, whilst the Fed earlier last week pretty much took a 'whatever it takes' stance, the longer term differential in narrative was created. Whether that sustains is a different story, since context can change rapidly, but intraday, those...

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Hey. I'd like to talk about the effect of lower interest rates on something called 'net interest margin'... In other words, how banks make money. The chart attached shows US commercial banks' net interest margin (blue) versus the target Fed Funds range (white). Net interest margin (NIM) is a measure of the difference between the interest income generated by...

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I'm a big fan of AUDJPY due to its risk sensitivity. In a risk on environment, it turns bid, and in a risk off environment, it goes offered. Why? Well AUD is a high beta currency and is rarely offered in a carry trade (until more recently against some exotics). Whilst Yen is almost always offered in the carry trade. This is due to the negative rates that the...

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Hey all. Something to note on EURCHF... The Swiss National Bank want a weaker Swiss Franc. To weaken the Franc,they conduct many different market operations. One of course is to buy US equities and the other is to increase their holdings of foreign currencies. Just last week, the Swiss National Bank increased their 'sigh deposits' of the dollar and euro by...

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Hey all. Sometimes there are trades which just stand out to you. EURGBP here is one of them. See, there's a big issue currently in Europe. With fiscal stimulus seemingly being coordinated simultaneously with most of the major countries excluding the Eurozone partaking, it seems that this is rather an obvious trade we have here. Now, fiscal stimulus tends to...

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Hey. The chart above provides the perfect reasoning as to why purely looking at price action around market sensitive data points can be your undoing. On Friday we had the NFP number - this was a big beat. However, GBPUSD didn't really move to the downside all that much. This likely led to many getting long, lulled into a false sense of security going into the...

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I am not a virologist, but I understand sentiment and a large part of my trading is looking at where people are overly fearful and where they are too complacent (at a basic level)... It's why I use Twitter so much. It's a great sentiment resource. If you were to do a search for Corona Virus on Twitter, 90% of people are bricking it. But step away from that and...

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Hey all. I've been an avid fan of selling rallies on AUDJPY for the last year or so. Over the last few months, we saw the Japanese 10 year yield push higher from its lows (the Japanese 10 year bond was being sold). This was probably due to a slight recovery in global data, leading to a more risk on environment... And we eventually saw the Japanese 10 year...

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You've probably heard of many zero commission trading platforms being established. Robinhood is probably the most well known one, actually. Historically, brokers have made their money by facilitating trades in the market between buyers and sellers and collected a fee for their extremely hard work... Since markets have become larger, with greater trading volume...

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Happy new year to all. Chart I sent out today... Above is the 10-2 spread vs gold. One thing to be sure of is that inflation expectations are increasing, shown by the bull steepening of the curve. Gold rallying has only a little to do with certain central banks buying more of it. Nor is it due to some kind of risk off sentiment, since equity markets are...

FinkPro Updated 

'I'm absolutely flying now. The ball looked like a beachball travelling in slow motion to me and the Worcester bowlers are in bits having worked so hard to get us to nine down only for Tuffnell to thwart them.' That's a line from Phil Tuffnell's (the famous English cricketer/Question of Sport jester) biography. I played cricket and was pretty decent at schoolboy...

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Right, a bit of a congested chart... In white, we have $XLF, purple, the US unemployment rate, orange is the European bank index and in yellow, we have the effective Fed Funds rate (US interest rate). Recent rhetoric from the Fed has been pretty dovish, and we have had a pause in hiking rates, with there likely to be absolutely no hike this year. If an economy...