VictorCobra

With BTC Close To All-Time-High, Here's The Bull and Bear of It

Short
BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
Hey Tradingview. As my posts have really become sparse, I tend to only write when something pretty significant occurs. Right now, Bitcoin has made it all the way from $15.5k, back up close to its all-time-high from 2021. That's a pretty substantial feat. What it proves is that if a thing exists that can make money, people will buy it.
Even if I write a ridiculously bearish doom post, I usually provide the bullish alternative. You can see this in my last major Bitcoin post:
Even when I was mostly bearish throughout 2022 and 2023, I've made some long posts here and there, detailing why price could go against my bias.

In this post, I put the short label because I'd rather be right if it drops heavily than if it goes up a lot more. That's just an ego thing.

Clearly, against my expectations, Bitcoin ETF's have been successful, and have ushered in what appears to be a major bullish impulse. As I've stated, I don't think that means anything encouraging about society. But, what's good for society and culture is not necessarily what makes money. That's something one learns pretty early on in adulthood. Anyway, you can read up on my bearish fundamental stance on Bitcoin on my page. As I was once fundamentally bullish on the asset, you can even watch as my opinion shifted over time. This page is really an interesting place.

Anyway, here's the bull and bear of it right now.

On the bull side, volume looks decent in spot markets. Price has managed to reclaim a very important long term trendline lose in 2022, as shown on the chart above. Price also appears to have gone parabolic, meaning it has not tested any major daily moving averages in some time, as price appears to go up in an almost straight line. This kind of price action can keep going much longer than short sellers are prepared for. It can also end in mere minutes, punishing top longs.

Looking at the shorter-term chart, Bitcoin fell out of its last bullish channel, but that didn't seem to matter at all. Price keeps pushing higher, bull flag after bull flag.
Here's the bear of it:
Bitcoin active addresses continue to stagnate near 2017 high levels. studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...

That's weird, right? You'd expect with countries "adopting" it and with new ETFs there would at least be some meaningful increase. Bitcoin is being stored by a few wealthy entities and individuals. It is very unlikely to end up in the hands of the everyday person. Again, this is one of the primary reasons I am against Bitcoin. My opinion on that is unlikely to change, regardless of price. I simply don't think Michael Saylor, for instance, is going to get out of his assymetric bet unscathed.

Additionally, open interest (primarily long interest) is extremely high. In fact, it's really on par with price, which is something that happened in 2022. This may not matter so much with ETFs on the market, but it could at least cause some volatility as traders need to be knocked out of their positions.

Looking at the shorter term chart, it seems bulls might want to be careful here. There are a lot of sellers in this range, which is not surprising at all. What also wouldn't be surprising is a touch of the all-time-high, at $69k. My guess is a LOT of traders are ready for a tap on that number, and that it's not going to be that easy. It does really look like another bull flag, but volume tells me that the likelihood of a fakeout to new highs is fairly high.
I'm still in a low-risk short, but stopped adding at $52k. I may close it out at the start of next week - I do think the likelihood of at least a quick flush towards weekly MA support exists. But who knows? Regardless - position size is important here. There's no leverage for me. I'm not going to be completely rekt if price keeps going up. BUT I would like to minimize further losses, and I don't want to be trapped in this position if Bitcoin goes to $90K or higher.

As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. Let's see what happens!

Thanks for reading.

-Victor Cobra




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