BITCOIN This is where the most aggressive part begins.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has turned sideways amidst the tariffs implementation today and on the longer picture (1W time-frame) it remains supported just above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). On this chart we display our Parabolic Growth Channel (PGC), which is the long-term Zone where BTC is a buy opportunity.
Throughout the market's historic Cycles, the time when BTC was supported above the 1W MA50 but still within its PGC was known as an Accumulation Phase (blue ellipse) before the final parabolic rally of the Cycle and its eventual Top (green Arc).
Based on this model, so far we haven't seen any such rally, despite the undoubtedly strong rallies of October 2023 - March 2024 and October 2024 - December 2024. Only the March 2024 and then the recent Tops can be counted as marginal breaches above the PGC and it's been no surprise that the market corrected back inside the Buy Zone but remained supported by the 1W MA50.
As long as it does, the probabilities of that final, most aggressive Cycle rally get stronger. On the last Cycle the peak was priced just above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is currently a little below $170k and that is why our final Target is just below at $160000. Also right now we are marginally below the 0.618 Cycle top-to-top Fib, which is in line to where all previous final Cycle parabolic rallies started.
So do you think the 1W MA50 will now push BTC to its final Cycle rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrencysignals
XRPUSD starting the parabolic rally to $6.000Ripple (XRPUSD) has been trading within a 5-year Channel Up since the March 2020 COVID flash crash. That COVID bottom initiated the first Bullish Leg of XRP, which was the previous Cycle's Bull run.
XRP has started the second Bullish Leg after the July 2024 Channel Up bottom and since basically December, the market has been under heavy volatility, entering a consolidation period similar to December - March 2021.
That was XRP's last accumulation phase before the 2021 Cycle Top. The 1W RSI patterns between the two Bullish Leg fractals are also similar, indicating that even though the current Bullish Leg has been more aggressive since November 2024, it is being harmonized now inside the parabolic growth Channel.
We expect a symmetrical +1668% rise in total for this Bullish Leg, similar to 2021, with our Target being marginally lower at $6.000, expecting it within July - October 2025.
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Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1,945.48
1st Support: 1,751.48
1st Resistance: 2,038.68
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has bounced of the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 81,264.56
1st Support: 78,172.96
1st Resistance: 86,012.36
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BTCUSDTAccording to this analysis, if the price reaches around $70,000 in a corrective structure with a time-consuming and low momentum in the form of wave F, it may grow to around $120,000 and even higher in the form of wave G.
But it seems that the ideal buying point is around $60,000 and the origin of the breakout node. In this case, of course, we will have a strong wave F, which means that we must be a little flexible in the possible targets of wave G.
In terms of time, late June, July and early August are the ideal time areas for the end of wave F, and late 2025 and early 2026 are the time areas for the end of the two waves G.
BITCOIN This is why it will make new ATH this year.The simplest explanation is perhaps sometimes the best. In this context, this is a simple yet powerful Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart, showing why the Bull Cycle hasn't peaked yet and why a new All Time High (ATH) is coming by the end of 2025.
So, this is the 12M time-frame, essentially each BTC candle represents 1 whole year (12 months). If you are familiar with BTC's 4-year Cycles, which we've been discussing regularly and in-depth on this channel, then it makes perfect sense to see the market peak, then decline for 1 year and then spend the remaining 3 making a Bull Cycle that will ultimately peak on the 4th year.
Practically each Cycle so far had 1 year of Bear Cycle and 3 years of Bull Cycle with the 3rd one always making a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end.
1 red candle followed by 3 green ones. Simplistic yet delivering a powerful message that since we are currently on Year 3 of the Bull Cycle, there are far more greater probabilities to end this 12M (1 year) candle in green as well and with a new ATH.
So what do you think? Ae we getting this fat green 2025 yearly candle or this time will be different? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 84,019.80
1st Support: 72,880.23
1st Resistance: 91,396.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN Is it owed a parabolic rally based on the GoldBTC ratio?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading on a highly structured manner within a Channel Up for the entirety of its Bull Cycle since the November 2022 bottom. We've discussed before how this is the smoothest Cycle of all.
What we didn't bring into the mix before was the Gold/BTC ratio (black trend-line), naturally negatively correlated to Bitcoin, which has been trading within a Channel Down since its January 2023 Top. As you can see it posts the same pattern on every Cycle: Channel Down (blue), followed by its bearish break-out and a huge drop (red ellipse) that prices the Bull Cycle Top on BTC.
So far every BTC Cycle had its parabolic rally (green ellipse) when the Gold/BTC ratio broke downwards. Does the market owe one this time also? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETHEREUM Ascending Triangle bottomed and is targeting $4700.Ethereum (ETHUSD) hit 2 weeks ago the bottom (Higher Lows Zone) of its 4-year Ascending Triangle pattern, following the recent 3-month correction. That correction has technically been the pattern's Bearish Leg and during those 4 years we've had another 5 similar to this, all with the exception of one, producing a Higher High.
This is actually more similar to the October 09 2023 and June 21 2021 bottoms, so at worst we should get a +168.44% rally from here that will interestingly enough test the Triangle's top (Resistance Zone) a $4700.
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BITCOIN Say goodbye to low prices if this level breaks. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has turned sideways the past couple of days following the strong bullish reaction on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The reason it that it is about to face the most common Resistance of this Cycle, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Within the current (2023 - 2025) Bull Cycle, BTC always started its new rally near or on the 1W MA50 but the most important development to confirm that was a break above the 1D MA50. On both previous correction/ accumulation phases, the 1D MA50 break coincided with a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement break.
The bottom of each phase is formed when the 1W MA50 gets tested on a Double Bottom, which we've had on March 11 2025, September 06 2024 and September 11 2023. Among those fractals, their 1D RSI patterns post identical sequences.
As a result, once the price breaks above the 1D MA50, we can claim that the most optimal buy opportunity of the past 6 months will cease to exist and then you'll have to chase a rally all the way to at least a +97% rise (late 2023 rally, the late 2024 was even stronger at +106%). That gives us a minimum target estimate of $150000.
Do you think that would be the case? Break above the 1D MA50 and off to the races with no looking back? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Could the Bitcoin bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot:85,975.56
1st Support: 83,546.45
1st Resistance: 89,692.83
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN Mega Cycle starting the final Parabolic Rally.This is not the first time we review the Mega Cycle Theory on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). This states that in reality BTC's Cycle's since the beginning aren't 4 as traditional models suggest but 2. And in fact instead of the 4th, we are currently on just the 2nd BTC Mega Cycle.
Well this Theory has for sure a better gel with the stock market trend in the past 15 years but what's more important is that the price is now (March 2025) within the underlying Pivot trend-line and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the same level it was coming toward the end of the 1st Mega Cycle. That was when it broke above the Pivot and started the hyper aggressive Parabolic Rally.
This Pivot trend-line is essentially the level that starts after the initial Cycle rally and acts as a Resistance turned Support and then Resistance again until the Cycle's final Parabolic Rally. Practically the Cycle mapping is more effectively viewed on the 1W RSI sequence. We are now at the stage when the 1W RSI ranges for the past 2 years between overbought (80.00) and neutral (45.00) like it was in 2016 - 2017.
In any case, this is yet another study showing that Bitcoin's Top can be at around $150k, which is currently marginally above the Pivot and as we head towards the end of 2025, the bar is raised to as high as $200.
So do you think we are just starting the final year Parabolic Rally to at least $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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S&P500 This is the buy opportunity of the year for a 7000 TargetThe S&P500 index (SPX) is in the process of posting its 2nd straight green 1W candle, following a streak of 4 red weeks since the February 17 peak. That streaκ was technically the Bearish Leg of the 1.5-year Channel Up and as you can see, it made a direct contact with its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
As the same time, the 1W RSI almost touched the 40.00 Support that priced the October 23 2023 Low, which was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The similarities don't stop there as both Bearish Legs had approximately a -10.97% decline, the strongest within that time-frame.
The Bullish Leg that followed that bottom initially peaked on a +28.85% rise, almost touching the 2.236 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the symmetry holds between the Bullish Legs as well, we can be expecting the index to start the new Bullish Leg now and target 7000 by the end of the year, which is marginally below both the 2.236 Fib ext and a potential +28.85% rise.
This may indeed be the best buy opportunity for 2025.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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BITCOIN historically sees huge rally when Gold peaks. This time?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is coming, slowly but surely, out of a consolidation following the test and hold of its 1W MA50 and one of the reasons it is about to rally strongly may be flying under the radar for the majority.
That reason has to do with Gold (XAUUSD) and its long-term Cycles. As you can see on this 1W chart, every time Gold peaked in the past 10 years, BTC started the parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle. Equally during Gold's past 2 Cycles, when it revisited that peak and tested that Resistance, it made a Double Top and declined again, which for Bitcoin was translated into a Bear Cycle confirmation.
With the help of the Sine Waves, we can be expecting that Gold Double Top in early April 2026, which means that by that time BTC will already be in its new Bear Cycle. As a result, it is suggested be already out of the market with our profits by the end of 2025.
So based on all that, if Gold makes its Cycle Top now, which is highly likely, Bitcoin will start a parabolic rally. Now, will it be the strongest of its Bull Cycle as the past Cycles suggested? Could be, but even if its not, it should be enough to replicate the late 2024 one and give one final opportunity for profit making.
But what do you think? Is Gold's potential peak here give a very favorable rally to Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bullish bounce?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 85,975.56
1st Support: 83,546.45
1st Resistance: 91,753.89
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DOGEUSD making a huge bullish break-out. Eyes 0.800.Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) broke today above the Lower Highs trend-line that started 2 months ago (on the January 18 High).
The natural Resistance remains of course technically the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but with the 1D RSI already trending upwards and the price rebounding from the recent low at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up, we can already claim that the new Bullish Leg has already started.
If it makes just a simple repeat of the previous Bullish Leg (which during Bull Cycles every rally is generally more aggressive than the previous), it can top the Channel Up and make a Higher High at $0.800.
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BITCOIN just broke above 4H MA200 for the 1st time in 1.5 month!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today above its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 1.5 month (since February 04). This is on its own a major bullish signal but fortunately for buyers, it is not the only one.
Just yesterday, the price also broke above the February 21 Lower Highs trend-line, the first medium-term Resistance of the market that basically started the brutal sell-off of late February and breaking above it technically restores the bullish sentiment back to the market and at the same time formed a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross for the first time in more than 2 months (January 18).
Obviously the complete confirmation will come if BTC breaks above its Channel Down but given the fact that 2 Resistance levels already broke and that the bottom looks like a W-shaped recovery pattern, we can already set a Target on the 99500 Resistance, which just so happens to be marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
But what do you think? Is this 4H MA200 break-out the bullish signal the market needed after such a long time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - Bullish Breakout from Strong Falling WedgeBitcoin is currently showing signs of a potential breakout from a strong falling wedge pattern on the 4H chart, which is a classic bullish reversal signal.
🔍 Technical Highlights:
The falling wedge has been forming since late January, creating a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Price action is now consolidating near the wedge resistance, indicating an impending breakout.
A previous bullish leg saw a price rally of 25,428.16 (+30.29%), suggesting strong historical momentum.
If BTC breaks out cleanly, we could see a similar or stronger move—projecting a potential rally of 28,086.24 (+31.12%).
📈 Expected Target : ~$118,141, aligning with the measured move from the wedge breakout.
🧠 Trading Insigh t: Watch for a confirmed breakout with strong volume above the wedge resistance zone. Retests of the breakout area can offer ideal entries for continuation trades.
AVAXUSD Channel Down bottomed. Bullish Leg to target $45.Avalanche (AVAXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down for the past 12 months and on March 11 it priced the latest Lower Low. At the same time, the 1D RSI is on an uptrend, a technical Bullish Divergence.
It is the same kind of Bullish Divergence we also saw on the August 05 2024 Lower Low bottom. That bottom produced a Bullish Leg that almost reached the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we can turn bullish here, targeting a $45.00.
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BITCOIN Will this historic level break too?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains supported on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is its main Bull Cycle Support, despite the recent volatility. As mentioned numerous times, in periods of uncertainty it helps you maintain an objective long-term perspective if you zoom out and look on the wider time-frames.
On this 1W chart, we can see that so far all of BTC's Cycle's have followed the same pattern. The Bear Cycle bottoms and the first bounce of the Bull Cycle aims at breaking above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line (blue Arc). It is what we call the 'Growth Channel' that guides the market from its Cycle bottom to break above the ATH Lower Highs and when it does the Parabolic Rally Phase (green Rectangle) starts. The most aggressive part is when the price breaks also above its Growth Channel.
This is the only Resistance level that has yet to be broke on this Cycle. If it does, the market will explode to Targets above $200k that will start putting it to capitalization levels that would require earth shattering catalysts in terms of adoption. A continuation of expansion within the boarders of the Growth Channel however can easily target $150k. Notice that throughout the whole process of the Growth Channel expansion on all Cycles historically, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) tends to hold and support.
So what do you think will happen this time? Will Bitcoin break above the Growth Channel and offer us another proper Parabolic Rally or will it be a more standard rise within it? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Falling towards pullback support?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1,940.23
1st Support: 1,827.50
1st Resistance: 2,107.47
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Important breakdown in the Gold & Silver ratio !!!This is a heads up that concerns the PM sector as well as all other assets.
An important breakdown just happened in the Gold & Silver ratio. This means precious metals bull resumes and SILVER will now overperform gold !! We are now in back test mode !
For the other asset classses this is good news also, because this breakdown in the ratio signifies the return of (asset) inflation. So this is good for stocks and crypto also.
It remains to be seen whether PM's will outperform stocks. My guess is YES.