Perfect Execution - Waiting for Confirmation Saves AccounsKey levels attract attention, but attention alone rarely produces good trades. A level gains meaning only when price shows how it behaves around it. Many traders understand where important levels are, yet still lose money because they enter too early, assume a breakout will continue, or anticipate a reversal before the market confirms it.
Patience at these levels is what separates disciplined execution from unnecessary losses.
A key level acts like a pressure point. Liquidity gathers above highs, below lows, and around clear support or resistance.
When price approaches these zones, it does not move cleanly. It probes, sweeps, hesitates, or accelerates depending on who holds control. Entering at the first touch is often an emotional decision disguised as confidence. Entering after confirmation is a structured decision grounded in evidence.
Confirmation begins with a reaction. A legitimate bounce or rejection has intent behind it. You will see displacement, cleaner momentum, or a defined shift in micro-structure. A candle wick alone is not confirmation.
A single green or red candle is not confirmation. Confirmation comes when the market shows that a level is respected or rejected with conviction, as several conditions align.
One of the clearest signs of confirmation is the break of micro-structure after the level is touched. If price sweeps a low and then breaks a minor high, the narrative changes. The same applies to resistance: a sweep followed by a failed attempt to push lower is evidence of buyers stepping in.
This structural shift shows that the reaction is more than a random bounce.
Another layer of confirmation is the retest. Strong moves often return to the level they broke to validate participation.
Traders who enter before this retest expose themselves to unnecessary volatility. Traders who wait allow the market to prove that the move is real, not a trap.
The retest reduces risk naturally and improves the reward-to-risk ratio without changing the strategy itself.
Patience does not slow you down. It filters out trades that look attractive but lack substance. Key levels attract liquidity, manipulation, and emotional behaviour.
Waiting for confirmation keeps you grounded when the market is trying to provoke a reaction. It prevents you from turning strong levels into weak trades through premature entries.
The goal is not to catch the exact top or bottom of a move. The goal is to participate in moves that show clear strength and clear intent.
When you treat key levels as decision points rather than entry signals, your trading becomes structured, disciplined, and far more consistent. Patience is not passive. It is an active skill that protects your account and elevates your execution.
Cryptomarketcap
MARKETS week ahead: December 7 – 13Last week in the news
September's PCE data was in line with market expectations, which supported investors expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates at December meeting. US equities continued to gain, where the S&P 500 managed to close the week at 6.870. This week gold was not in the spotlight of investors, who are waiting for a correction in gold price in order to continue purchases. Gold closed the week at $4.197. The US Treasury yields reacted to inflation data on Friday, pushing the 10Y yields toward 4,14%. The crypto market continues to lag behind, with BTC struggling to sustain levels around the $90K, but dropping again on Saturday below this level.
The key U.S. economic release of the week arrived Friday with the publication of the September PCE data, a particularly important indicator given its timing just ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y, while core PCE increased 0.2% in September. Personal income climbed 0.4%, and personal spending advanced 0.3%, both broadly in line with expectations. Friday also delivered the University of Michigan’s preliminary December Consumer Sentiment reading of 53.3, slightly above the anticipated 52, while five-year inflation expectations eased to 3.2% from 3.4% previously. Eased inflation figures supported market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates at December's meeting. Current odds as per CME FedWatch Tool stands at 87%.
Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and TV studios plus the streaming service HBO Max in a deal valuing the business at about $72 billion equity, giving Netflix control over a massive content library including hits and legacy franchises. The deal faces sharp opposition from unions, theatre-owners, and lawmakers, who argue it could reduce competition, hurt jobs, raise prices for consumers, and damage diversity of content. At the same time, according to reports, the White House officials view the merger with “heavy scepticism,” meaning that the administration may not be enthusiastic about its approval
Kraken and Deutsche Börse announced a strategic partnership aimed at bridging traditional finance and the digital-asset space by combining Deutsche Börse’s regulated infrastructure with Kraken’s crypto-native platform. In the first phase, Kraken will integrate with Deutsche Börse’s FX platform 360T, giving its clients access to bank-grade foreign-exchange liquidity and improving fiat on/off-ramp capability. Future plans (subject to regulation) include offering regulated crypto trading, tokenized assets, and derivatives (from Eurex) and potentially letting institutions trade spot crypto, tokenized stocks (via xStocks), and crypto derivatives under one roof.
News is reporting that OpenAI has declared a “code red,” refocusing the company’s resources solely on improving ChatGPT while pausing development of other projects like advertising, AI agents for health and shopping, and its planned assistant “Pulse.”. This comes as competition intensifies: rival models such as Gemini 3 from Google and offerings from Anthropic have closed the performance gap, threatening OpenAI’s dominance. Analysts warn the company faces three “code red” structural risks: slowing subscription growth despite growing user numbers, rising substitute products, and the burden of huge planned infrastructure investments.
CRYPTO MARKET
In a CNBC analysis of the BTC recent price moves, the analysts are noting that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 30 % from its record high of about $126,000 in early October, a decline that some analysts see as normal volatility given its historical patterns of large drawdown after big rallies. The sell-off is being driven by weak liquidity, massive liquidations of leveraged positions, and a broader risk-off mood among investors; this has been exacerbated by outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and concerns over macroeconomic factors like interest rates and tightening liquidity. As a result, price action has become choppy, with technical support around the mid-$80,000s being closely watched. A break below could open the door to further downside, while renewed institutional demand or improved liquidity could stabilize or push prices higher.
The crypto market is evidently lagging behind the optimism exposed on US equity markets. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% during the previous week, with an outflow of $23B. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat w/w, trading around $219B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -6%, with a total funds outflow of $206B.
Although the total crypto market lost around 1% during the previous week, not all coins were traded in a negative territory. While BTC lost 1% in value with an outflow of $18,6B, ETH managed to close the week positively, with an increase of 2%, gaining $7,4B in its market cap. Some of the higher weekly losers were ZCash, with a drop in value of 26,6%, DASH was traded down by 15,8%. AVAX lost 6,7%, XRP was traded down by 7,5%, SOL lost around 2% w/w. Few coins which were traded in green were LINK, gaining almost 8% w/w, SUI was traded higher by 5,7%, BNB closed the week by 2,2% higher.
Increased activity with circulating coins continues. This week SUI gained 1,3% new coins on the market, Filecoin added 0,3% of coins, while DOGE made an incredible increase of circulating coins by 6,3%. Such a course of action is not frequently seen by DOGE. The majority of other altcoins had an increase of 0,1% of circulating coins.
Crypto futures market
Crypto futures markets softened this week, reflecting a period of consolidation following recent volatility. Both Bitcoin and Ether futures traded lower across the curve, though the magnitude of the pullback remained moderate compared to prior weeks.
Bitcoin futures declined between 1.6% and 2.1% across maturities. The front-end (Dec 2025–Apr 2026) posted slightly smaller weekly losses, ranging from –1.61% to –1.78%, while the mid- to long-dated maturities (June 2026–Mar 2027) saw steeper declines of around - 2.14%. Prices remain in a relatively tight structure, indicating that despite short-term weakness, the curve is not pricing significant long-term deterioration in sentiment.
Ether futures were more resilient this week, with changes clustering around the flat to slightly negative range. Front maturities declined modestly by –0.62% to –0.81%, while the mid-curve stabilized, and the longer maturities (Sep 2026–Mar 2027) remained flat on a weekly basis. The Ether curve’s relative stability suggests buyers are stepping in at lower levels, reflecting firmer structural support compared to Bitcoin.
TESLA TO BTC & TOTALThis analysis compares NASDAQ:TSLA performance relative to BINANCE:BTCUSDT .
As you can see, Tesla’s stock is showing a bullish stance against Bitcoin and appears to be at the beginning of its Elliott Wave 3.
This chart delivers Four key messages:
1.Bitcoin is expected to decline while Tesla moves higher
2.Bitcoin is expected to drop while Tesla moves into a range
3.Both are expected to decline, but Tesla is likely to fall less than Bitcoin
4.Both rise, but Tesla gains more.
I’d be happy if you shared your thoughts.
NASDAQ:TSLA
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
BINANCE:BTCUSD
Is DOGE/USD Preparing for a Major Upside Move?🚀 DOGE/USD: ULTIMATE SWING TRADE BLUEPRINT 🚀
Catch the Rocket Before Liftoff!
🔥 WHY THIS SETUP IS FIRE
BULLISH MOMENTUM building on DOGE against the USD.
Key levels aligning for a potential SWING OPPORTUNITY.
Perfect for traders looking to RIDE THE VOLATILITY with a clear plan.
🎯 TRADE PLAN (BULLISH)
Entry: ANY PRICE – Flexibility is key! Scale in strategically.
Stop Loss: THIEF SL @ 0.14000 ⚠️
(Note: I’m not your financial advisor – adjust SL based on YOUR strategy & risk tolerance. Place SL ONLY after breakout confirmation!)
Take Profit: TP @ 0.16500 ✅
SMA acting as strong resistance + overbought signals = trap zone.
Escape with profits before the pullback!
(Reminder: TP is YOUR choice – take money at your own risk!)
📌 DEAR LADIES & GENTLEMEN (THIEF OG’s) 👑
This is a BLUEPRINT – not financial advice. Adapt it to YOUR style. Your money, your rules.
🔗 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH
$BTC/USD – Crypto king moves, DOGE often follows sentiment.
$SHIB/USD – Meme coin sibling, correlation spikes during hype cycles.
$ETH/USD – Altcoin leader, influences broader crypto momentum.
SP:SPX (S&P 500) – Risk-on/risk-off cues can impact crypto flows.
💡 KEY CORRELATION INSIGHTS
DOGE often mirrors BTC’s direction with amplified volatility.
Meme coin rallies can be sector-wide – watch SHIB for confirmation.
USD strength (DXY) inversely affects crypto – a falling DXY = crypto bullish signal.
LIKE & FOLLOW if this resonates – boosts visibility for all!
COMMENT your entry & exit strategies – let’s build knowledge together.
SHARE to help fellow traders spot the opportunity.
📈 Stay smart, trade sharp, and manage your risk!
✅ Follow for more high-impact setups.
#DOGE #DOGEUSDT #Crypto #SwingTrade #TradingView #Memecoin #Bullish #TradingStrategy #Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #Altcoins
ADAUSDT - Technical structure showing potential for a breakoutWith COINBASE:BTCUSD and COINBASE:ETHUSD maintaining strong bullish structure and the broader crypto market showing renewed risk-on sentiment, COINBASE:ADAUSDT is positioned for a potential continuation to the upside from technical point of view and trend continuation setup.
Crypto markets historically perform well when liquidity conditions improve, and with the FED officially ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) and a rising probability of rate cuts, the macro environment is turning supportive for digital assets.
On top of that, ADA’s ecosystem growth, rising network activity, and strong technical structure suggest that ADAUSDT may be preparing for a high-probability move up.
Based on these combined factors, we expect ADAUSDT to push up and potentially target new short-term highs if momentum continues.
Always remember WTW 4 Golder Rules:
1) Do not jump in
2) Do not over risk/trade
3) Do not trade without Stop Loss
4) Never ever add to a losing position!
Trade with care
We Trade Waves
WTW Team
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
ETHUSD – The Calm Before the Storm | December's Most Misundersto📈 Market Context – Why Everyone's Wrong About ETH Right Now
Ethereum is sitting at one of the most deceptive price levels in crypto right now. Most traders see the recent dump from $3,762 on December 2 and think "it's over." Others see the consolidation around $3,208 and think "dead cat bounce."
They're both missing the bigger picture.
Here's what ACTUALLY happened: A 2015 Ethereum ICO wallet that had been inactive for a long time moved 40,000 ETH suddenly, worth around $120 million. Crypto Twitter panicked. But then Lookonchain verified that it was for internal transfer, and not a liquidation. Classic FUD.
What REALLY tanked ETH? A Yearn Finance exploit that happened at the worst possible time, when the market was stretched by leverage and rising speculative positioning. More than $600 million in crypto liquidations hit the market. This wasn't an organic selloff—this was a leveraged washout.
But here's the kicker: While retail was panic-selling, whales were accumulating like it's 2020 all over again.
🔎 Technical Framework – The Deceptive Calm
Current State:
Ascending broadening wedge inside rising channel—classic volatility compression before explosive move
Key Liquidity Zones:
🔴 Distribution Liquidity Zone (SHORT Opportunity):
$3,550 - $3,650 (recent spike high + whale distribution cluster)
This is where whales moved 40,000 ETH at $120 million valuation before the "transfer" narrative
Since December 2024, aggressive selling by whales has been evident in the rise of average market order sizes
🟢 Accumulation Liquidity Zone (BUY ORIGIN):
$2,900 - $3,000 (FVG retest + November-December whale buy zone)
From November 13 to December 2, whales acquired a total of 1,702,835.5 ETH at an average price of $5.7 billion
In early 2025, large holders acquired over 330,000 ETH, valued at approximately $1.08 billion
⚖️ Chop Zone (NO TRADE ZONE):
$3,100 - $3,400 (current consolidation limbo)
This struggle between institutional investors and retail traders could define Ethereum's price action in the coming weeks
🐋 WHALE ACTIVITY – The REAL Story Nobody's Talking About
While everyone's focused on the dump, let me show you what the ACTUAL data says:
The Accumulation Phase (That Everyone Missed):
Ethereum whale wallets have recorded positive netflows in each of the last 20 trading days, dating back to November 13
The highest single-day inflows of 2570 ETH came on November 14 when Gensler's exit was confirmed
Ethereum ETFs attracted $2.63 billion in inflows in December 2024, led by the Fidelity Ethereum Trust
The Concentration Effect (This is MASSIVE):
Over the past four months, Ethereum's Gini coefficient increased from 0.7563 in September to 0.7630 in December 2024—a clear sign of growing ownership concentration. Translation? Whales are consolidating control.
Even crazier: Addresses holding 10,000+ ETH now control 74.47% of Ethereum's circulating supply. Compare that to Bitcoin where large holders control only about 15%—ETH is FIVE TIMES more whale-controlled than BTC.
This is why ETH moves are so violent and why large transfers or sales by a tiny fraction of holders can rapidly sway Ethereum's price and sentiment.
The Distribution Signal:
But here's where it gets interesting: Since December 2024, there has been an increase in aggressive sell orders, particularly from whales, with rising average market order sizes suggesting they are offloading holdings.
So what gives? Are whales accumulating or distributing?
BOTH. They're accumulating at discount levels ($2,900-$3,050) and distributing at premium levels ($3,550-$3,650). This is classic smart money behavior—they're range-trading the volatility while retail gets chopped.
🚨 Recent Developments – The Catalyst Stack
Pectra Upgrade – May 7, 2025 (GAME CHANGER)
The Pectra upgrade went live in May 2025, introducing batch transactions, gas payment in any token, and doubling blob capacity for Layer 2s.
Key improvements:
Account Abstraction enables gas payments using multiple tokens like USDC and DAI, with third-party fee sponsorship
EIP-7691 doubles Ethereum's blob throughput from three blobs with a maximum of six to six with a maximum of nine
With the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum's data capacity significantly increases to about 420 TPS from 210 TPS
Translation: ETH just became TWICE as fast for Layer 2s. This is MASSIVE for scalability and will drive institutional adoption.
ETF Inflows – The Silent Accumulation
Ethereum ETFs attracted substantial institutional interest, with inflows reaching $2.63 billion in December 2024. This is institutional money positioning for the next leg up—they don't buy at tops, they buy at bottoms.
Gary Gensler Exit – Regulatory Tailwind
The impending exit of SEC chairman Gary Gensler enhanced investor confidence in the altcoin sector, putting Ethereum in prime position to deliver superior performance relative to BTC.
Staking Explosion
Staking activity reached near-all-time highs, with 36.19 million ETH locked in validators—a 4.5% increase since October 2024. That's $115+ BILLION locked away, reducing circulating supply.
DeFi TVL At $90 Billion
Total Value Locked in Ethereum protocols surged to $90 billion, driven by renewed interest in yield-bearing DeFi products. Institutional money is FLOODING into ETH DeFi.
🎯 Trade Plans – High-Probability Setups
🟢 BUY ETHUSD: $2,900 - $3,000 | SL $2,820
Thesis: FVG retest at proven whale accumulation zone + November-December $5.7B whale buying cluster = institutional re-entry point
Entry Rules (MUST WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION):
Price dips into $2,900-$3,000 FVG zone
Bullish CHoCH (Change of Character) + BOS (Break of Structure) on H1-H4
Strong bullish rejection wick with volume spike (100K+ ETH volume on 4H)
Ideally on Order Block retest after initial bounce
BONUS CONFIRMATION: Check whale netflow data on IntoTheBlock—if showing positive inflows, ADD to conviction
Targets:
$3,350 - $3,400 (mid-channel retest, quick 12-15% gain)
$3,600 - $3,750 (previous high retest + distribution zone, 23-28% gain)
$4,200 - $4,500 (bull flag breakout + Pectra FOMO begins, 42-50% gain)
$5,200 - $5,800 (ATH retest + full bull market confirmation, 75-95% gain)
Moonshot: $6,500+ (if ETF inflows accelerate post-Pectra like BTC did)
Risk Management:
Position size: 3-5% of portfolio (this is a HIGH-CONVICTION setup)
Scale in 40% at $3,000, 30% at $2,950, 30% at $2,900
Trail stop to breakeven after hitting Target 1
Take 30% profit at Target 2, let rest ride with trailing stop
🔴 SELL ETHUSD: $3,550 - $3,650 | SL $3,750
Thesis: Premium liquidity retest at proven whale distribution zone—classic "return to scene of crime" before deeper correction
Entry Rules (WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION):
Price pumps into $3,550-$3,650 zone (previous spike high)
Bearish CHoCH + MSS (Market Structure Shift) + BOS down on H1-H4
CRITICAL: Check CryptoQuant whale-to-exchange flow—if showing HIGH exchange inflows (whales moving ETH to exchanges to sell), this is your GO signal
Heavy volume spike on bearish candle (150K+ ETH on 4H)
Entry after FVG fill or Order Block retest post-initial rejection
Targets:
$3,200 - $3,250 (first support retest, quick 8-12% gain)
$3,050 - $3,100 (mid-channel support)
$2,900 - $3,000 (FVG zone—BUY setup reactivates here!)
Risk Management:
This is a COUNTER-TREND trade—use tighter stops
Position size: 2-3% max (smaller than long setup due to higher risk)
Take 50% profit at Target 1, move SL to breakeven
Exit FULLY at Target 3 and flip to LONG setup
⚠️ Risk Management & Critical Notes
The #1 Mistake: Trading inside the $3,100-$3,400 chop zone without confirmation. The struggle between institutional investors and retail traders in this range creates whipsaw conditions this is where retail accounts get DESTROYED.
Whale Flow Monitoring is NON-NEGOTIABLE: High leverage remains with funding rates indicating very high risk-taking activities and markets still inclined towards speculative long positions. Use Glassnode or IntoTheBlock to monitor whale exchange inflows BEFORE entering trades.
Volatility Warning: This concentrated ownership structure means large transfers or sales by a tiny fraction of holders can rapidly sway Ethereum's price. Set alerts for 10,000+ ETH whale movements on Whale Alert.
Macro Headwind: Japan has indicated tightening, and U.S. real interest rates remain high. Under low liquidity conditions, even minor shocks can trigger significant price changes. If SPX dumps 5%+, ETH follows—be ready to cut positions.
Position Sizing: Given the extreme whale concentration, never go all-in. Scale positions at key levels. This isn't a casino—it's warfare against billion-dollar players.
📊 The Bottom Line – Why This Time Is Different (Or Isn't)
Let me give it to you straight: ETH is at a crossroads.
The Bull Case (What I'm Leaning Toward):
✅ $5.7 billion in whale accumulation over 20 days since November 13
✅ $2.63 billion in ETF inflows in December 2024
✅ $90 billion TVL in DeFi protocols institutions are building
✅ Pectra upgrade doubled transaction throughput to 420 TPS
✅ 36.19 million ETH staked = reduced supply
✅ Gary Gensler gone = regulatory tailwind
✅ Technical structure: Rising channel still intact, FVG below = perfect retest setup
The Bear Case (What Keeps Me Up at Night):
⚠️ Aggressive whale selling since December with rising average market order sizes
⚠️ Even as Bitcoin and Solana hit all-time highs after Trump's election, Ether topped out at $4,000 in December, well short of its 2021 high of $4,800
⚠️ High leverage with funding rates indicating very high-risk speculative long positions
⚠️ Global liquidity tightening from Japan and high U.S. real interest rates
⚠️ 74.47% of supply controlled by whales = extreme manipulation risk
⚠️ Price underperforming BTC and SOL = capital rotation away from ETH
My Take:
The $5.7 billion whale accumulation since November 13 tells me smart money is positioning for a move. But the aggressive whale selling at premium levels tells me they're range-trading, not accumulating for a straight pump to $10K.
Here's the play:
Short-term (Dec-Jan): Expect consolidation with violent swings. Trade the range: buy $2,900-$3,000, sell $3,550-$3,650.
Medium-term (Feb-April): After Pectra hype builds + ETF inflows accelerate, we get the push to $4,200-$4,800.
Long-term (Mid-2025+): If ETH breaks $4,800 ATH with volume, we're going to $5,800-$7,000+.
BUT: If ETH breaks below $2,850 with volume, the bull case is dead and we're heading to $2,600-$2,400 to fill lower FVGs.
🔥 Strategy Summary – How I'm Trading This
Phase 1 (NOW - January):
Wait for dip to $2,900-$3,000 FVG zone
Scale in long position (3-5% of portfolio)
Target: $3,600-$3,750 for 25-30% gain
Take 30% profit, trail stop on rest
Phase 2 (If we hit $3,600+):
Watch whale exchange inflows
If HIGH inflows (distribution signal) → SHORT at $3,550-$3,650
If LOW inflows (holding) → add to longs, target $4,200-$4,500
Phase 3 (Post-Pectra Hype, March-May):
If ETH holds above $3,600 and Pectra adoption is strong → go HEAVY long
Target: ATH breakout to $5,200-$5,800
This is the "generational wealth" move IF it plays out
Invalidation:
Close ALL longs if ETH closes below $2,850 on daily
Flip bearish, target $2,600-$2,400
💡 Final Word – The Truth About ETH Right Now
ETH isn't "dead." But it's not "mooning tomorrow" either.
Critics have blasted developers' decision to focus on Layer 2 blockchains, arguing those chains siphon value from ETH. That's a real concern. ETH isn't pumping like BTC or SOL because value is flowing to L2s.
But here's the counterargument: With the Pectra upgrade, this will double L2 performance out of the gate, leading to lower costs and faster transaction times. If L2s explode in adoption, ETH benefits as the base layer. It's like owning the toll road, not the cars.
The Question: Will the $2.63 billion in ETF inflows and $5.7 billion in whale accumulation be enough to push ETH to new ATHs? Or will whale distribution at premium levels and high leverage markets cause another violent shakeout first?
My bet: One more shakeout to $2,900-$3,000 (FVG retest), THEN the real pump begins. But I'm not holding through a breakdown below $2,850. That's where I cut and flip bearish.
Trade the structure. Follow the whales. Protect your capital.
Drop a 🔥 if you're watching that $2,900-$3,000 FVG like a hawk. This is where fortunes are made or lost.
PEPE/USDT Trend Shift? Hull MA Break Signals Possible Upside🔥 PEPE/USDT – Hull Breakout Bullish Blueprint | Swing Trade Masterplan 🐸🚀
Asset: PEPE/USDT — “PEPE vs Tether”
Crypto Market Opportunity Blueprint (Swing Trade)
📈 PLAN — Bullish Plan confirmed with Hull Moving Average Breakout 💚⚡
Entry: YOU CAN ENTRY ANY PRICE LEVEL
Stop Loss: This is thief SL @ 0.00000440
Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) Adjust your SL based on your startergy & own risk.
PLACE SL AFTER THE BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION ONLY.
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) iam not recommended to set only my SL. its your own choice you can make money then take money at your own risk.
🎯 TARGET — Following SMA Resistance + Overbought Zone + Trap Alert ⚠️🔰
Simple Moving Average act as a strong resistance + overbought + trap is there
→ OUR target @ 0.00000570
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) iam not recommended to set only my TP. its your own choice you can make money then take money at your own risk.
📡 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation + Key Points) 🔍📊
1️⃣ BINANCE:SHIBUSDT 🐕🔥
High correlation with meme-coin liquidity flows.
When SHIB pumps aggressively, PEPE usually follows due to risk-on behavior in the meme sector.
Watch for SHIB breakout above local resistance → signals strong liquidity returning to meme coins.
2️⃣ BINANCE:DOGEUSDT 🐶⚡
DOGE is the macro driver of meme-coin sentiment.
If DOGE shows HMA / SMA breakout, PEPE often mirrors with delayed volatility.
Large spikes in DOGE funding rates = PEPE momentum probability increases.
3️⃣ BINANCE:FLOKIUSDT 🐺💥
FLOKI often leads mid-cap meme rotation cycles.
When FLOKI rallies, PEPE tends to follow after short consolidation → swing traders use this correlation.
4️⃣ CRYPTO:WIFUSD (Solana Meme Leader) 🐕🦺🚀
A strong SOL ecosystem rally pulls meme funds from multiple exchanges.
PEPE benefits from cross-chain meme rotation once WIF volatility cools off.
5️⃣ BINANCE:BTCUSDT & BINANCE:ETHUSDT (Macro Drivers) 🧠📉📈
If BTC ranges & ETH strengthens → altcoins, esp. memes, get liquidity boost.
PEPE breakout success rate increases when:
BTC volatility is low
ETH shows positive funding rates
🧩 Summary for Traders (High Engagement Style)
PEPE preparing bullish continuation with Hull MA breakout 🔥
SMA resistance near target = take profits wisely
SL only after confirmation—Thief OG style 🕶️💼
Watch correlated meme-pairs for early signals
Liquidity rotation across SHIB → FLOKI → PEPE remains strong
MARKETS week ahead: November 30 – December 6Last week in the news
As US macro data started to be released on a regular basis, investors turned their sentiment to a positive side in expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 bps in December. The S&P 500 had its five-days positive streak, closing the week at 6.849. The same sentiment also pushed the price of gold toward the higher grounds, where the metal closed the week at $4.230. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields were holding around the 4,0% level. The crypto market is lagging behind the risk-off mode on traditional markets. BTC tried to move higher, reaching levels above the $92K, however, closed the week around the $90K.
Based on posted US data, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in September, lifting the annual rate to 2.7%. Core PPI increased 0.1% m/m and 2.6% on a yearly basis. Retail sales edged up 0.1% in September, resulting in a 4.3% yearly increase, though the monthly figure came in slightly below the 0.3% forecast. Relatively weaker data increased investors' sentiment that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. Current odds, based on CME FedWatch Tool stands at 83%.
The price of gold continued to rise this week. A recent survey by Goldman Sachs of over 900 institutional investors found that more than 70% of them are expecting gold prices to rise over the next year. The expectations of 35% participants is that the gold price could surpass $5.000 per ounce by the end of 2026, while 33% expect a range between $4.500 and $5.000. The bullish outlook reflects strong demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and growing investor interest amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Although tech companies in the US were supported by the risk-off mode of investors, still Nvidia was lagging this run. As news is reporting, the Chinese company Baidu is emerging as a major competitor of the American company, after implementing export restrictions. Through its semiconductor unit in Kunlunxin, Baidu unveiled a multi-year roadmap that includes next-gen ships, designed for large scale AI training and inference. Baidu already sells chips to third-party data centre builders and powers its own AI services, which is perceived as a sign that it is positioning itself as a full-stack AI hardware and cloud provider in China.
News is reporting that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) reiterated its strict stance on cryptocurrencies, announcing a renewed crackdown on virtual currency activity, including stablecoins. The PBOC stated that virtual currencies “do not hold the same legal status as fiat currency” and banned their use as legal tender, calling any crypto-related business activity “illegal financial activity”.
The rating agency S&P Global downgraded Tethers stablecoin USDT from “constrained” to the lowest possible stability rating, “weak”. The downgrade stems from S&P’s concerns that USDT’s reserves now include a higher share of risky assets, including Bitcoin (about 5.6% of reserves), exceeding the over-collateralization buffer once considered sufficient. In addition, S&P flagged persistent “gaps in disclosure” around reserve valuation, custodians, and counterparty creditworthiness, raising doubts about the reliability of USDT’s backing.
CRYPTO MARKET
The US stocks reacted positively on an increased sentiment that the Fed might cut interest rates by 25 bps at December FOMC meeting. However, the crypto market is lagging behind the risk-off sentiment, while having only a modest upside correction. Investors are still in the wait-and-see mood, which might be changed in case that the Fed indeed cuts rates two weeks from now. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 7% w/w, adding $196B to its total cap. The market was mostly driven by a surge in BTC value, but also other altcoins contributed. Daily trading volumes decreased this week to $203B on a daily basis, from $313B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -6%, with a total funds outflow of $183B.
BTC was the leading coin of the week, with a surge of more than 7% adding $122B to total market cap. ETH was following the lead, with an weekly increase of 8,7%, attracting $29B to its cap. XRP also had a good week, with a surge of 13,4%, and an increase in cap of $15,7B. From other leading coins, BNB increased its value by 5,4%, while Solana gained more than 6% w/w. Altcoin with a significant move was Maker, with a surge of 36% w/w, while Monero was traded by 14% higher from the end of the previous week. Stellar also had a good performance with a surge of 11%. On the opposite side was ZCash, with a drop in value of 11,3%, and only a few other altcoins which finished the week in red.
Increased activity with circulating coins continues. This week ZCash and Polkadot had a surge in the number of coins on the market by 0,6% each. IOTA increased the number of coins by 0,5% w/w. Filecoin and Stellar had an increase of 0,2%, while the majority of other altcoins increased the number of circulating coins by 0,1% w/w.
Crypto futures market
After several weeks of persistent declines, the crypto market staged a strong rebound, with both Bitcoin and Ether futures posting broadly higher prices across the entire curve. Bitcoin futures advanced between 7.1%–7.9% w/w, marking a robust recovery following the previous sharp drawdown. The front end of the curve, December 2025 through May 2026, led the move higher, gaining 7.6%–7.9%, indicating renewed demand for short- to medium-term exposure.
Long-term maturities also firmed, with Mar 2027 finishing the week at $99,005, up 7.11%.
The upward shift in the curve suggests improving expectations for market stabilization and a potential return of directional positioning after recent deleveraging.
Ether futures outperformed Bitcoin on a relative basis, rising 10.1%–11.6% across maturities. The strongest gains appeared at the front end, with January 2026 futures climbing 11.60%, followed closely by February 2026 at 11.52%. Although gains moderated slightly beyond mid-2026, the entire curve moved solidly higher, with March 2027 settling at $3,334, up 10.18% w/w. This suggests a sustained recovery in ETH sentiment despite ongoing volatility.
Overall, the futures market shows early signs of restoring confidence, with both assets retracing a significant portion of recent losses.
SOLUSDT /// 30NOVSolana has consistently shown resilience across multiple market cycles, repeatedly demonstrating its ability to establish new price structures and reach fresh targets. Despite this long-term strength, the asset is currently under notable selling pressure. With Bitcoin experiencing a 30% decline, interest from investors and smart money toward Solana has also cooled off.
From a structural perspective, the $149 level remains a significant resistance zone, while the $127 support area appears increasingly vulnerable and may be tested or even broken in the near term.
This brings up a key question for many market participants:
Where could Solana become attractive from an investment standpoint?
In my view, the $100 region is where I would personally begin reassessing Solana for potential long-term positioning—depending, of course, on how price approaches that level and the quality of market momentum at that time.
As always, broader market conditions will play a major role in determining whether Solana can regain strength or continues to consolidate under seller dominance.
ETH/USD – Potential Bullish Reversal from Extreme POI.Analysis:
The chart suggests Ethereum is currently trading inside a strong Extreme Point of Interest (POI) after a series of Breaks of Structure (BOSS) to the downside. Price has entered a demand zone that may trigger a bullish reversal.
Key observations:
Downtrend Structure: Multiple BOSS confirmations show sustained bearish momentum leading into the Extreme POI.
Extreme POI (Demand Zone): Price is consolidating inside a deep demand area marked in red, indicating potential accumulation by buyers.
POI Reaction Expected: If price maintains support here, a bullish reversal is likely.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Two major FVGs above act as logical bullish targets for price inefficiency fill.
Projected Price Path:
The drawn projection suggests:
Short-term bounce from POI
Breakout structure upward
Continuation toward higher FVG fills around $2,962, $3,130, and possibly $3,192 – $3,220.
Bias:
▶ Bullish, as long as price remains above the Extreme POI.
A breakdown below would invalidate the setup and continue the downtrend.
This is a strong smart-money style setup with a clean narrative:
Demand → Break of structure → FVG fill → Higher targets.
CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP EXCLUDING BTC and ETH OVERVIEWAs a crypto investor who holds 12 different altcoins and waiting for a massive bullrun on altcoins, I decided to share my overview on total market cap excluding BTC and ETH, here I highlighted three important levels on W- chart: 1.14T, 938.75B, 773.83B. These are three essential zones that everyone has to pay attention to, many people recall what happened in 2021 year on the crypto market, yeah, altseason... 1.14T is the level where the market dropped significantly and entered a bearish zone, and since then the price tried to break out this level two times in 2024 and 2025, causes a massive correction in the entire crypto market, historically 773.83B is a strong support level where altcoins always made a reversal, and looking at EMA-100 on W-chart, from 2024 the index touched this level 4 times resulting into a big bounce and growth on altcoins, I'm expecting the index repeat this pattern in near months, and as soon as the chart break out the 1.14T level, we can expect at least 2-3T of market cap, that's when we can sell all our bags to those people who will come into the market for the first time. Still HODLING my alts and have sold none of them yet, even though my portfolio is in red by 60%
MARKETS week ahead: November 24 – 30Last week in the news
The US Government started to work and some macro data were posted during this week. Still, jobs and unemployment data were mixed, not providing much guidance to investors whether the Fed will cut or not in December. At this moment higher concerns are raising a question: are we in the AI-bubble or not? The US equity markets continued with a correction, where the S&P 500 dropped by more than 5% since its ATH, closing the week at 6.602. The price of gold is holding strongly its grounds below the $4.100 level, while the 10Y yields are sticking between 4% and 4,1%. The crypto market continues to suffer high sell-off for the second week in a row. BTC dropped to $80K, but managed to close the week at $84K. The hurting question is whether the correction is over or maybe $75K is waiting to be tested?
The first set of U.S. macroeconomic data was released last week following the end of the longest government shutdown in history. Non-farm payrolls for September came in at 119K, well above the market expectation of 50K. The unemployment rate for the month rose to 4.4%, up from the previously reported 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, aligning with market forecasts. Existing home sales rose by 1.2% in October. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s final Consumer Sentiment reading for November registered at 51.0, while five-year inflation expectations declined to 3.4% from the previously reported 3.9%.
The week opened with markets highly focused on Nvidia’s quarterly results, which were posted on Wednesday. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang highlighted that demand for the company’s chips, particularly its Blackwell GPUs, remains exceptionally strong. Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion, a 62% y/y increase. The company also expects strong performance to continue through year-end, projecting $65 billion in revenue for Q4, which exceeds current Wall Street forecasts. Regarding market concerns that tech companies are currently strongly overvalued and that there is an “AI bubble” Huang commented that from Nvidia’s perspective, “something very different” is happening, a strong compute demand is compounding across training and inference.
JPMorgan warns that MicroStrategy could be removed from major equity indexes, including MSCI, once the index provider delivers its decision on January 15th, potentially triggering $2.8B in passive fund outflows, and up to $8.8B if other index providers follow suit. The bank argues this index risk, not just Bitcoin volatility, is driving the recent sharp drop in the stock.
Eli Lilly has become the first pharmaceutical company to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization, marking a milestone outside the tech sector. The surge is largely fuelled by strong sales of its weight-loss drugs. Investors have responded positively, pushing the stock to record highs and cementing Lilly’s place among the world’s most valuable companies. This achievement highlights the growing influence of innovative healthcare products on market valuations.
CRYPTO MARKET
Another challenging week for the crypto market. The sell-off continued, where all gains from this year were erased, making November one of the most difficult months in the history of the crypto market. There is no clear reason why this actually happened, but some analysts are pointing to the possibility for MicroStrategy to be excluded from the MSCI index, while others are noting just fear from over-valuation of tech companies. All the major US equity indices are in the correction for the last two weeks, reflecting this fear in investors. Anyway, this is not the first such correction on the crypto market, in which sense, many crypto investors are just sitting aside and waiting for the bottom-buy. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 11% w/w, with a weekly outflow of $342B. Daily trading volumes remained flat on a weekly basis, moving around $313B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -12%, with a total funds outflow of $379B.
BTC was leading another market sell-off season. Last week, the coin erased $215B from crypto market cap, and with a drop in value of 11,2%. ETH followed the flow, with a decrease in value of 13,3% or $51B. Almost all coins finished the week in red. Majors were leading in total volume. XRP lost 13.5% w/w with $18B outflow. BNB dropped by 11% or down $14B in market cap. Solana had a relatively smaller drop, compared to other majors, so it was down by $7,7% with an outflow of $6B. Although DASH was a gainer previous week, this week it dropped by 30% in value. ZCash also significantly dropped by 25% w/w. All other coins lost somewhere between 10% and 30% w/w.
In line with the general correction on the crypto market, increased activity in circulating coins continues. This week, Solana added 0,9% new coins to the market, Stellar had a surge in the number of coins by 0,4%, while Filecoin added 0,3% of new coins. This week was especially important as the number of BTC coins also increased by 0,1% w/w, which is not frequently seen on the market.
Crypto futures market
This week brought another wave of broad-based weakness across the cryptocurrency futures market, with both BTC and ETH futures experiencing notable declines. The sell-off was consistent across all maturities, reflecting a continuation of the risk-off sentiment that has dominated the digital asset space and broader financial markets.
BTC futures posted declines ranging from -10.03% to -10.49%, with the sharpest weekly losses seen in the mid-2026 maturities. Across the curve, prices moved lower in a nearly parallel fashion, indicating systematic selling pressure rather than maturity-specific positioning.
Ether futures saw an even more pronounced decline this week, with losses ranging from -12.72% to -12.90%. Front-end maturities dropped sharply, and longer-dated contracts out to March 2027 followed a similar trajectory. ETH futures are now priced in the $2,700–$3,000 range, marking a significant reset from levels seen earlier this month.
The synchronized move across all tenors for both BTC and ETH indicates that the market is undergoing a broad repricing rather than a structural shift. Curve shape remains intact, maintaining its usual upward slope, but the entire structure has shifted meaningfully lower.
Altcoins Market ETA- So this graphic show only Cryptos and when i speak only Cryptos, it means " No BTC, No ETH, Not Stablecoins ", Only Altcoins !
- This post is not a price prediction, not a FUD, and not a FOMO, it's just my own opinion based on facts.
- Without BTC/ETH and Stables, the crypto market barely reaches $580B MC, a nutshell in the ocean of global finance. Cryptos have already been rejected four times around the $900B MC.
----------------------------------------------------------
- In 2021 we had DeFi.
- In 2022 we had L1/L2 wars.
- In 2023 we had AI.
- In 2024 we had memecoins.
But 2025 has no new narrative.
----------------------------------------------------------
Cycles always go like :
BTC → ETH → Large caps → Mid caps → Micro caps
but this time :
- There's too many new tokens, too many VCs and early insiders droping on retails.
- Altcoins are falling due to a lack of liquidity, no compelling narrative, and absent buyers, while market makers focus on protecting themselves with BTC and stablecoins. ( Dyor on what happened on 10th October 2025 ).
- Right now, most people are holding their breath, waiting for the Fed to launch the next round of QE and another rate cut.
- Money makes Money, the world is working like that.
- My advice for now: be patient. If you already hold crypto and believe in your projects, just HODL. If you’re new to crypto, stay on the sidelines and wait until the market surpasses $1 trillion.
- Comments are welcome but stay sharp and thoughtful.
Be Safe!
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTCUSDT Chart Analysis.
BTC has bounced sharply off the green demand zone near $100,000, a historic level for bullish reversals.
Price action shows consolidation and then recovery, similar to previous cycle bottoms, with a projected move toward resistance at $123,000–$124,700 if momentum continues.
The current structure favors a bullish continuation, but strong confirmation above recent highs is needed for further upside.
DYOR | NFA
MARKETS week ahead: November 10 – 16Last week in the news
The U.S. Government shutdown and high AI valuations were at the core of investors interest during the previous week. A lack of U.S. macro data turned investors to revalue historically highest levels of U.S. tech companies. The S&P 500 closed its second corrective week at 6.713. Amid high uncertainties, the price of gold is still strongly holding the $4K level. Although US 10Y yields had a move toward the 4,1%, they still ended the week at 4,0%. The crypto market also had another corrective week, with BTC dropping to $100K.
The biannual Financial Stability Report released on Friday highlights policy uncertainty, including issues like central bank independence, trade policy and lack of economic data, as the top financial stability concern (61% of respondents flagged it in a survey). Geopolitical risk is also escalating as a major worry, alongside emerging risks from artificial intelligence, cited by about 30% of contacts as a potential shock in the next 12-18 months. The report noted some stabilization in the commercial real estate market and Treasury market liquidity, but flagged high leverage in hedge funds and other sectors as “notable” risks. The mention of the absence of reliable economic data appears for the first time in a survey, driven by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, underscoring how data gaps themselves are a source of instability.
Elon Musk announced that Tesla, Inc. may need to build a “gigantic” chip fabrication facility, a “terafab”, to meet its future AI and robotics demands. Tesla is developing its 5th-generation AI chip (AI5), with limited production slated for 2026 and full scale output in 2027, and a follow-on AI6 expected by mid-2028. Musk revealed that even with the best forecasts from its current suppliers, including TSMC and Samsung Electronics, Tesla’s chip volume needs won’t be fulfilled.
Stephen Miran, a Governor at the Federal Reserve, warned that the growing adoption of dollar pegged stablecoins could lead to an increased supply of loanable funds, thereby putting downward pressure on the economy’s neutral interest rate. Miran made the link between stablecoins, increased global demand for U.S. dollar assets (especially Treasury bills), and lower U.S. government borrowing costs. Although he didn’t provide a precise timing for rate changes, he suggested that wide stablecoin use could lead to a prolonged environment of lower policy rates, similar to past periods of high global savings suppressing interest rates.
News is reporting that XRP outperformed Bitcoin this week, driven by momentum around spot ETF filings and increasing institutional interest. The filings by entities such as Canary Capital Group for the U.S. listed XRP based ETF and a parallel filing by 21Shares are cited as major catalysts, with new wallet creation and network activity supporting the bullish view. On the other hand, analysts are noting that large BTC holders, referred to as “whales” are increasingly dominating market activity, with on chain data showing their accumulation and influence rising relative to smaller investors. While retail and smaller wallets are reducing exposure, whales are either hoarding or strategically positioning, which has impacted power dynamics in the market.
CRYPTO MARKET
The crypto market passed through another corrective week. Its further decline was largely driven by a broader retreat in risk assets and growing worries over tighter monetary policy. A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with weak macroeconomic data, dampened investor sentiment and curtailed short-term upside momentum. Meanwhile, analysts point out that large Bitcoin holders, or “whales,” are increasingly shaping market activity, with on-chain data showing rising accumulation and influence compared to smaller investors. As retail participants scale back exposure, whales continue to hoard or reposition strategically, shifting the overall balance of market power. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 8% during the previous week, with an outflow of $285B of funds. Daily trading volumes were also modestly increased to the level of $363B, from last week's $229B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +5%, with a total funds inflow of $157B.
Altcoins played a major role on the crypto market during the previous week. Majors were dragging the market to the downside, while several altcoins performed in a quite positive manner. BTC dropped by 7,6% w/w dragging $168B from the crypto market. ETH had a weekly drop of 13% w/w and funds outflow of $61B. XRP was also traded lower by 9,7% for the week, while BNB lost 9,1% in value. Solana had a significant drop in value of more than 15% w/w. On the opposite side was DASH, who continued its winning streak. This week DASH gained 14%, in addition to previous weeks 72%. ZCash continues with a strong surge, gaining this week another 37%. Filecoin also outperformed other altcoins on the market with a weekly gain of 68%.
Increased activity continues also with circulating coins. This week Polkadot increased the number of coins on the market by 0,6% while Filecoin coins surged by 0,3%. Stellar, IOTA and Solana increased their circulating coins by 0,2% w/w, while DOGE, Avalanche and DASH number of coins were up by 0,1% w/w each.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market experienced a sharp downturn over the week, as both BTC and ETH futures declined significantly across maturities. The sell-off reflected a renewed wave of risk aversion in the broader crypto space, driven by weaker spot market sentiment and increased volatility toward the end of the week.
BTC futures fell around -5.6% w/w, marking the steepest weekly decline since early October. The November 2025 futures closed at $104,030, while the March 2027 maturity settled at $113,065. Despite the notable correction, the curve maintained its upward slope, suggesting that investors continue to anticipate price stabilization and potential recovery over the medium term. The persistence of a positive curve structure, even amid broad declines, points to ongoing confidence in the long-term BTC outlook.
ETH futures registered heavier losses, sliding between -10.99% and -11.24% w/w across maturities. The November 2025 futures closed at $3,475, while March 2027 ended the week at $3,846. The sharp retreat erased much of the prior month’s gains and underscored ETH’s higher sensitivity to short-term shifts in sentiment.
Overall, the week’s movement highlighted a broad but sentiment-driven correction, rather than a structural change in the longer-term trend. The pronounced weakness in ETH relative to BTC suggests that traders remain cautious, but the enduring upward slope of both futures curves signals that the market still prices in gradual recovery potential once near-term pressures subside.
ETH/USDT chart analiysis !!ETHUSDT Daily Chart.
Downtrend Channel and Key Breakout
ETH traded lower in a descending channel for several months between January and April, marked by parallel lines.
A breakout above this channel in late April signaled a trend reversal, leading to a sharp uptrend.
Following the breakout, ETH reached the gray supply/resistance zone ($3,800–$3,900), which has been acting as a support and pivot area ever since.
When the price recently fell below this zone, it immediately found buyers and is attempting to reclaim it.
ETH is now forming a small descending channel from its highs, with the price at support.
The chart projection indicates a bullish reversal as long as ETH remains above gray support and breaks above the channel resistance. If this reversal mirrors previous moves, the next major upside target is $4,830.
Following the previous breakout and trend reversal, ETH is consolidating near key support. Confirmation above resistance could trigger another strong rally, so keep an eye on key areas for signals.
DYOR | NFA
Likely Crypto Bottom After 10/10 Liquidation CascadeOn 10/10/2025 crypto had its largest liquidation cascade in history, since then the market has been extremely choppy and sentiment is generally very low despite good news and no fundamental changes
Now the lows are being retested/swept on many alts
This likely marks the bottom and I think we'll rally soon as we continue to see more institutional/TradFi inflows due to clearer regulations, rate cuts, tokenization, new altcoin ETFs, etc.
Fundamentally 2026 (and the rest of 2025) should continue to be bullish, and I think crypto is gonna start to catch up to the Gold/Nasdaq moves after underperforming for the past several months
MARKETS week ahead: November 2 – 8Last week in the news
The most important news during the previous week was not that the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but that the Fed is not sure whether rates will be cut in December. The US equity markets were positive during the first half of the week, when the S & P 500 reached another all time highest level for this year. Still, comments on potential no-cut in December made investors pull back, closing the index at 6.840 on Friday. The US 10Y yields also reacted strongly by bringing 10Y yields back toward the 4,1%. The US Dollar is holding relatively steady, while the price of gold retreated a bit, in a quest for a new equilibrium level around the $4K. Amid macro uncertainty, investors are still reluctant to return to the crypto market. BTC was testing the $106K support during the week, but closing it around the $110K.
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.0%, its second cut of the year, citing signs of a cooling labour market and economic uncertainty. Despite the cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that a further cut in December is “far from a foregone conclusion,” signalling internal dissent and caution about the outlook. The Fed also announced it will halt its balance‐sheet “run-off” (quantitative tightening) starting December 1. Chair Powell also emphasised that inflation could remain at higher levels, while at the same time the labour market is showing signs of softening.
During the same week the ECB meeting was held, where interest rates on euro were left unchanged, with emphasis on potential risks regarding supply chain disruptions or bottlenecks that could arise from the latest tensions between the EU and China over microchips and rare earth minerals. ECB President Lagarde also mentioned risks of increased inflation coming from the services sector in the EU.
“Its in the best interest of America to serve that China market. It's in the best interest of China to have American technology” concluded Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in an address to reporters at the APEC CEO summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. He dismissed the notion that U.S. export controls on its AI chips sold to China are justified by national security risks, arguing the real issue is lost business for Nvidia.
Reported Q3 earnings of Berkshire Hathaway showed an increase in net income of 17% y/y to $30,8B, while operating profit climbed 34%. The company’s cash pile reached a record $381.7 billion, signalling a very cautious capital deployment stance amid market uncertainty.
News is reporting that tech firms are ramping up their AI investments, with projected capital expenditures reaching around $600 billion next year at this moment. Analysts are commenting that investors will be closely monitoring this, particularly to see how these CAPEX commitments translate into increased AI-driven revenue for each company.
CoinDesk is reporting that ARK Invest has boosted its exposure to crypto related assets to over $2.15 billion across its three ETFs. The firm added roughly $5.3 million in shares of Bullish, bringing its holding in the company to about $114 million. Meanwhile, ARK trimmed stakes in traditional tech names like Palantir Technologies and Shopify to make room for its growing crypto infrastructure weighting.
CRYPTO MARKET
The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but the likelihood of another cut in December remains uncertain. The U.S. government is still in a “shutdown” state, and considering all other uncertainties regarding the economy and Government moves, investors are hesitant to commit to riskier assets. Price action of major crypto coins reflects this caution, as investors prefer to wait for clearer macroeconomic signals and regulatory developments before re-entering the crypto market, suggesting continued volatility with limited near-term upside. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by -1% during the week, decreasing its value by $51B. Almost half of this outflow comes from BTC. Daily trading volumes returned to the “regular” levels of around $229B on a daily basis, from $431B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +14%, with a total funds inflow of $446B.
Major crypto coins performed in a negative manner during the week. BTC dropped by 1% w/w, decreasing its market cap by $24B. ETH lost $8,4B or 1,8% in value, while XRP dropped by 4,6% w/w losing $7,4B in market cap. Solana was also down by 3,3%, DOGE by 5,1%, while BNB was traded down by 2,7%. The vast majority of other altcoins were traded either with a small gain or with a small loss on a weekly basis. However, two coins outperformed significantly. ZCash continued with a strong gain in value, surging by an incredible 55,6% for the week. Another coin was DASH with an incredible 72% increase in value for the week, showing that investors are rotating into digital assets emphasizing anonymity and alternative payment infrastructure.
There has been an increased activity with circulating coins. The number of BTC coins on the market increased by 0,1%, which is relatively rarely seen. XRP also increased the number of its coins on the market by 0,1%, the same as Stellar, DOGE, IOTA and ZCash. This week Filecoin managed to add 0,7% new coins to the market, while LINK added 2,8%. On the opposite side was Algorand with a drop in circulating coins by 0,2%, while BNB decreased its coins in circulation by 1,0%.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market traded slightly lower over the past week, marking a pause after the prior period’s moderate rebound. Both BTC and ETH futures saw marginal declines across maturities, reflecting a more cautious stance among traders as the broader market consolidated recent gains.
BTC futures eased around -0.85% w/w, maintaining a stable curve structure. The November 2025 futures closed at $110,320, while the March 2027 maturity ended at $119,750. The small correction suggests limited follow-through selling pressure, as prices continue to hold well within the medium-term range established over the past month. The curve’s gentle upward slope indicates that investors still expect higher BTC valuations over the longer horizon.
ETH futures declined between -1.15% and -1.29% w/w, showing slightly weaker performance than BTC. The November 2025 futures closed at $3,909, and the March 2027 maturity settled at $4,321. Despite the week’s mild retreat, ETH futures remained firmly above the $3,900 mark, demonstrating continued stability in investor expectations for the asset’s medium-term outlook.
Overall, the week was characterized by low volatility and limited directional conviction, suggesting that both BTC and ETH futures are consolidating after recent fluctuations. The absence of strong downside momentum reinforces the view that current price action represents a temporary pause rather than the start of a broader correction, with the futures curve still pointing to gradual long-term optimism across both coins.






















