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DAL

THE WEEK AHEAD: UAL, DAL, SLB, WBA EARNINGS; XOP, SLV, QQQEARNINGS: There are four options highly liquid underlyings that pop up on my screener for next week with 30-day implied of >50%: UAL (23/88/22.6%)* (on Wednesday after market close); DAL (13/74/19.1%) (Tuesday before market open); SLV (18/59/16.4%) (Friday, before market open), and WBA (43/54/12.2%) (Thursday, before market open). Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/50 short strangle in the November monthly with the options camped out at the 16 delta, yielding a 2 x expected move break even on the put side and > 2 x expected move on the call. Delta/theta -.41/6.00; paying 1.87 at the mid price as of Friday close (.94 at 50% max). The DAL November 20th, 16 delta 27/42 short strangle was paying 1.83 at the mid price as of Friday close; delta/theta 1.48/4.39. SLB is small enough to short straddle, but would go "skinny," as the November only has 2.5 wides to play with. The November 20th 15/17.5 was paying 1.48 as of Friday close, but treating it as a short straddle and taking profit at 25% max (.37) isn't particularly compelling, so would probably pass on the play and deploy buying power elsewhere. WBA suffers from a similar affliction (2.5 wides out in November), but the 32.5/40 is paying 1.54 there, albeit with break evens greater than the expected move, but not quite 2 x. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: XOP (15/56/14.5%) SLV (45/51/13.1%) GDXJ (15/49/12.9%) EWA (15/42/11.6%) XLE (27/43/11.2%) GDX (15/40/10.7%) XBI (29/43/10.3%) USO (4/43/10.1%) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: QQQ (28/33/8.2%) IWM (25/32/7.6%) SPY (19/25/5.9%) EFA (13/20/4.8%) DIVIDEND PAYERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: KRE (25/44/11.7%) EWZ (15/42/11.6%) XLE (27/43/11.2%) GENERAL MUSINGS: I already have a UAL covered call on, so am unlikely to partake in that underlying further here. Moreover, in the IRA/retirement account, I'm already deployed in everything at the top of the heap from an implied volatility standpoint, although I may carry on with my standard weekly 16-delta short put in the broad market instrument with the highest implied volatility, which would be QQQ. Alternatively, I'll do a QQQ 10-percenter (See Post Below) instead, as NDX isn't fantastically liquid, and a November 27th (currently, 48 days until expiry) will be available. To emulate a 50-wide, however, in NDX, I'll have to go 10-wide with 5 contracts or 5 wide with 10, etc. For example, the November 27th 240/245 is paying .50, and I'd have to sell 10 of those to emulate the NDX November 27th 9925/9975, paying 5.04. I would naturally prefer just selling one NDX spread, since it means fewer fees, but if the bid/ask is grotesque, I'll just have to go with QQQ or a RUT 50 wide. (The RUT November 27th 1385/1435 was paying 5.04 at the mid as of Friday close). * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank (where implied volatility is currently relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a percentage of stock price.
NASDAQ:UAL
by NaughtyPines
Our Stock of the day / DALToday, we have a short setup to share. Here we will give you a full explanation of what we expect a) First we want to see the Weekly chart: We can see a major resistance level b) Working from that level, we can go to the 1H chart. Here we can see a range with an inner zone ( Minor support zone / the expected target for the bearish movement) c) Inside the Range, we can see a broken ascending trendline + corrective structure making a pullback on that broken structure d) The corrective structure is composed of an ABC pattern. From a technical perspective, the structure is finished and is ready to trade e) We have set our Entry orders below B and our Stop above C. Our Break Even level is defined with a horizontal yellow line. Finally, our Take profit is the Minor support zone f) The risk Reward Ratio of this setup is 1.54 g) We will use 1% of our capital as maximum risk on this setup h) We will cancel the setup if the price keeps rising and we lose our Risk Reward Ratio above 1.5 i) REMEMBER: Trade safe, protect your capital, and always understand what you are doing.
NYSE:DALShort
by ThinkingAntsOk
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, CCL EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, KREEARNINGS: CCL (28/88/25.9%) and DAL (18/77/22.1%)* announce earnings on Thursday. The DAL November 20th 21 delta, 2 x expected move 26/41 short strangle is paying 2.41 or 7.6% as a function of stock price (1.20 at 50% max; 3.8% as a function of stock price). I've pictured a short put here as the simplest play to get in on a sector that has been hammered by the pandemic, assuming you don't mind potentially being assigned at that price to work a longer-term play (i.e., covered calls). CCL is small enough to play via short straddle, with the November 20th 15 short straddle paying 3.92 or 25.9% as a function of stock price (.98 at 25% max; 6.5% as a function of stock price). Alternatively, the > 2 x expected move 10/20 short strangle is paying .93 (.46 at 50% max; 3.0% as a function of stock price). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: TQQQ (41/103/30.2%) XOP (19/60/17.3%) USO (10/55/146%) GDXJ (20/50/15.1%) SLV (39/48/13.5%) EWZ (21/46/14.1%) XLE (30/44/131%) XBI (36/45/13.0%) GDX (19/42/12.7%) SMH (27/47/11.2%) QQQ (35/35/10.5%) BROAD MARKET: QQQ (35/35/10.5%) IWM (32/34/9.8%) EFA (25/22/9.0%) SPY (21/26/8.0%) IRA DIVIDEND EARNERS/PREMIUM SELLING: KRE (28/47/13.6%) (Current Yield: 3.83%) SLV (39/48/13.5%) (No Yield; Precious Metals Position) EWZ (21/46/14.1%) (Current Yield: 3.80%) XLE (30/44/13.1%) (Current Yield: 7.52%) XBI (36/45/13.0%) (Current Yield: .35%; Premium Selling Play) SMH (27/47/11.2%) (Current Yield: 0.00%; Premium Selling Play) QQQ (35/35/10.5%) (0.60% Yield; Premium Selling Play) MUSINGS: With the general elections now 29 days away, I'm not doing much here in terms of adding new positions. With the margin account in particular, I'm looking at going completely flat at or near October opex and then watching the show from the sidelines. On the IRA/retirement account front, I'm already in most of the underlyings at the top of the implied volatility ladder, so don't anticipate doing much here anyway. I will naturally look at delta on a portfolio-wide basis to see whether I need additional delta one way or the other to make myself less directional running into the elections. We could, after all, conceivably see one of a variety of things depending on how things play out (i.e., relief rally, sell-off, "sideways nothing burger"). With Friday's sell-off, however, I'm tempted to add a smidge more of QQQ in the November cycle for my weekly 16 delta, 45 days 'til expiry broad market short put (the November 20th 16 delta 237 short put was paying 3.73 at the mid as of Friday close; 1.60% ROC as a function of notional risk). * -- The first metric is where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks; the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
NYSE:DAL
by NaughtyPines
SAVE ANALYSIS and simple way to read Charts for beginnersI see SAVE going back to 25 by Jan 2021 but if you're an option trader i suggest getting ITM calls for 2021 even 2022 if you want to add to long term portfolio. Shares is also good to add to your stock portfolio. Remember to keep in mind if airlines were to shutdown and vaccine trials see no further progress that would be a sign to get out, but recent news looks good for airlines in general and this is an easy money printer here! hopefully momentum can carry us back to the ATH within the next 2-5 years at 85$. Imagine getting a 16$ call exp 1/2022 now and SAVE is back up at $50 ....
S
by jUiCE_Trades
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: LYFT, UAL, MGM, DAL, CNX, SLV, GDXJEARNINGS: LYFT (20/82/19.8%) announces earnings on Wednesday after the close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session if you want to play the volatility contraction. Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/38 short strangle camped out at the 20 delta in the September monthly. Paying 1.26 as of Friday close, it has 27.74/39.26 break evens, which are wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, but somewhat short of 2 times on the put side due to skew; delta/theta .25/3.58. You'll have to go somewhat tighter (the 25 delta) to get one-third the width out of an iron condor, with the 27/30/37/40 iron condor paying .97; 29.03/37.97 break evens, which are at the expected move on both sides; delta/theta 2/1.31. I've stuck on an UBER line just to show how LYFT's competitor did with its earnings in the coronavirus environment ... . CSCO (28/36/8.4%) also announces, but has less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play. EARNINGS AFTERGLOW: There are a number of underlyings with earnings in the rear view that still have sufficient implied to potentially make them worthwhile just as pure premium selling plays. Here are a number of them, ranked by the percentage that the September at-the-money short straddle is paying relative to stock price and screened for those paying greater than 15%: UAL: 20.8% MGM: 17.7% DAL: 17.7% CNX: 17.6% WYNN: 16.9% PINS: 16.1% ROKU: 16.0% BYND: 15.8% SNAP: 15.7% BA: 15.3% SQ: 15.2% AMD: 15.1% LUV: 15.1% I may pick one or more of these if I have nothing better to do, keeping in mind correlations here (i.e., UAL, DAL, and LUV are all airlines; BA is airline-related). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS, RANKED BY SEPTEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE/STOCK PRICE RATIO AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED: SLV (70/81/19.9%) GDXJ (24/62/15.6%) GDX (24/43/12.8%) XOP (11/48/12.7%) EWZ (18/43/11.2%) Here, I've screened out those paying <10%. I'm in an August GDXJ play, but may re-up with a SLV, even though there is going to be some correlation with miners. The September 18th 20 delta 22/36 short strangle was paying 1.45 as of Friday close, with the 25 delta 20/23/33.5/36 iron condor paying .99. There is some massive call side skew to potentially accommodate here, so could see going "double double" (double the contracts on the put side, but double the width on the call). Two Examples: September 18th 2 x 18/2 x 20.5/33/38 "double double" iron condor, paying .98 or September 18th 2 x 15.5/2 x 25.5/33.5/44 "double double", paying 1.30, the latter of which approaches the metrics of the naked short strangle. BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: Most of the fun has bled out ... : IWM (25/30/7.3%) QQQ (25/28/7.2%) EFA (17/21/4.8%) SPY (15/22/5.1%)
NYSE:UBER
by NaughtyPines
3
Delta Airline - Technical Analysis - DALTechnical Analysis: Based on technical analysis, the idea is to hold. Prices are moving in a sideway trend and there are not a lot of signal for a short or long term investment. Fundamental Analysis United, American, Delta, Southwest — Airline stocks rallied on Wednesday as positive vaccine news gave investors confidence about a return in air travel demand. American Airlines jumped 7.7% and United Airlines rose more than 6%. Southwest and Delta gained 5% and 4%, respectively. Alaska Air Group gained 5.2%.
NYSE:DAL
by Mauriello
1
AAL DAL and the Airline Destiny Airlines earning are all due in July: DAL 14 July BMO est. $-4.06 / $2.17B UAL 21 July AMC est $-9.41 / $1.14B AAL 23 July BMO est. $-7.03 / $1.43B LUV 23 July BMO est. $-2.67 / $0.54B All eyes will be on DAL tomorrow to sense where this mess is going. As for AAL, it closed above the downward sloping trendline but this could be easily a bull trap. I will not get excited yet. I believe DAL earnings will have a big impact on the industry. Trendline may act as support and hence may create a better odds for long positions. With FIB resistances intact, I need to see decisive solid breaks to get in. Volume Volume Volume. This analysis represents my own view and it isn't a recommendation. Readers should do their own studies before taking on any position. Data in this analysis aren't guaranteed for accuracy. Wise trading everyone.
NASDAQ:AAL
by Ekuities
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, WFC, NFLX EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, EWZEARNINGS: A bunch of earnings next week, particularly in the financials sector: C (40/58/14.1%): Tuesday before market open. DAL (50/95/23.0%): Tuesday before market open. JPM (38/49/12.1%): Tuesday before market open. WFC (58/63/15.4%): Tuesday before market open. GS (31/48/11.7%): Wednesday before market open. EBAY (71/56/13.4%): Wednesday before market open. IBM (47/43/10.0%): Wednesday before market open. BAC (36/52/13.1%): Thursday before market open. JNJ (29/28/7.2%): Thursday before market open. MS (35/51/12.3%): Thursday before market open. NFLX (50/60/14.5%): Thursday before market open. From the standpoint of what the August at-the-money short straddle is paying, you appear to get the most bang for your buck out of DAL (23.0%), followed by WFC (15.4%) and NFLX (14.5%). Because so many financials are announcing, I did consider a short premium play in the sector exchange-traded fund, XLF (29/41/10.4%), but the August at-the-money short straddle is paying just a smidge over 10% of the stock price relative to WFC (15.4%), C (14.1%), BAC (13.1%), JPM (12.1%), and GS (11.7%), so it's potentially more worthwhile to go single name for the volatility contraction here and to look to WFC to get the most buck banging. Unfortunately, strike granularity for WFC out in August remains pesky, with 2.5 wides where I'd want to set up my tent. For what it's worth, the 22.5/30 paid 1.42 as of Friday close, with the shorts camped out around the 23 delta. To me, airlines remain a bullish assumption play from these levels, and DAL is no exception. Consider out-of-the-money short put: the August 21st 20 delta 22 is paid 1.06 as of Friday close or another bullish assumption setup such as a Zebra, buying 2 x the 70 delta calls and selling the 50, potentially calendarizing the setup so that you have more time to reduce cost basis (e.g., buy 2 x December 18th 23 calls, sell the August 21st 27). Pictured here is a NFLX August 21st 455/465/680/690 iron condor with the shorts set up at the 16 delta as of Friday close. The market's showing wide on this setup, but look to get at least one-third the width of the widest wing (i.e., for a 10-wide, at least 3.33). You'll probably have to fiddle with the strikes given the amount of movement it's experiencing. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED: EWW (42/40/10.0%) GDXJ 40/55/13.73%) XLE (38/50/12.6%) GDX (34/41/11.0%) EWZ (29/48/12.1%) SMH (26/36/9.2%) XOP (25/61/15.8%) USO (7/53/15.8%) XOP (15.8%), GDXJ (13.73%), and EWZ (12.1%) have the most juice as a function of buying power ... . BROAD MARKET: Currently, no broad market with an August at-the-money short straddle paying greater than 10% of the stock price, but if you feel compelled to play, IWM (42/38/9.4%) is paying the most as a function of stock price. IRA DIVVY-GENERATORS SCREENED FOR AUGUST SHORT STRADDLE PAYING MORE THAN 10% OF STOCK PRICE: EWZ (29/48/12.1%) (Current Yield: 3.36%)
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
12
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY EARNINGS; XOP, XLE, EWW PREMIUM SELLINGEARNINGS: Next week's earnings announcements are light, with options liquid underlying to play for volatility contract even lighter. BBBY (52/119/18.8%*) announces on Wednesday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of Wednesday's session. Pictured here is a July 17th (12 days) 11 short straddle, paying 2.03 as of Friday close, 18.8% of where the stock was trading at 10.81. Look to take profit at 25% max or otherwise manage the trade by rolling out to August if it doesn't work out fairly immediately. DAL (43/89/12.3%*) also announces this week on Thursday. A July setup isn't paying much, so I'd be inclined to go out to August to make it more compelling, where the 23/36 short strangle paid 1.83 as of Friday close. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK/PERCENTILE AND SCREENED FOR >35% IMPLIED: EWW (37/37/15.0%**) EWZ (37/56/10.5%) GDXJ (34/53/14.6%) XLE (33/45/14.6%) GDX (28/39/12.7%) XOP (22/57/16.3%) USO (9/51/13.2%) The most bang for your buying power buck appears to lie in XOP, followed by EWW, XLE, and GDXJ. BROAD MARKET: IWM (41/36/10.0%) IWM is the only broad market exchange-traded fund where the background implied remains greater than 35. IRA DIVIDEND GENERATORS: EWZ (37/56/10.5%) ... and EWZ the only dividend generator with a 30-day greater than 35. * * * Broad market volatility has come in quite a bit here, but SPY 30-day implied at 27.2% isn't exactly a "low volatility environment" either. Nevertheless, it's not a bad thing to sit back, let powder dry out a little bit in preparation for the next volatility wave and/or more productive earnings announcements, particularly with underlyings like NFLX, MSFT, and IBM announcing next week, along with a number of financials: C (36/55), WFC (45/54), BAC (33/48), JPM (32/43), MS (30/45), and GS (27/41). * -- Percentage of stock price the July 17th short straddle was paying as of Friday close. ** -- Percentage of stock price the August 21st short straddle was paying as of Friday close.
B
by NaughtyPines