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Will AUDUSD Continue To Gain On The Theme of a Fed Cut?Fundamental approach: - AUDUSD edged higher this week amid a softer US dollar. Aug US CPI came in slightly hot but reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut. RBA policy remained steady following Aug’s cut and a data‑dependent stance. - US dollar moves were driven by Aug inflation at 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY, and a labor market picture softened by benchmark revisions, keeping markets positioned for a Sep Fed easing, which weighed on the greenback. - Australian policy settings stayed unchanged after the Aug RBA cut to 3.60%, and officials reiterated data dependence, limiting AUD-specific surprises. Risk sentiment improved after the CPI release, adding modest support to pro‑cyclical currencies. - AUDUSD could gain if the Fed delivers a dovish cut and US data cools further. Next week’s Fed decision and any RBA communications on the release schedule are the key catalysts to watch. Technical approach: - AUDUSD broke the ley level at around 0.6600 and rose higher. The price is well above both diverging EMAs, indicating a bullish structure. - If AUDUSD continues to rise, it may retest the resistance at around 0.6700. - On the contrary, struggling to close above 0.6700 may prompt a correction to restest the support at 0.6600. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Will US30 Reach A New Record High After Today's NFP?Fundamental approach: - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) rose this week amid cooling US labor signals that reinforced expectations for a Sep Fed rate cut, while upbeat ISM services activity tempered growth concerns. - ADP private payrolls slowed and jobless claims ticked higher, bolstering bets for easier policy ahead of today's NFP release. This kept risk appetite supported through Thu record-setting close in broader indices. - The ISM Services PMI accelerated to 52.0 in Aug, with stronger business activity and new orders, but continued employment contraction, a mix consistent with disinflationary growth that equity markets favored. Salesforce (CRM) underperformed on a cautious revenue outlook even as rate-cut hopes lifted cyclicals within the Dow complex. - Looking ahead, the index could extend gains if payrolls and earnings metrics cool without signaling a hard landing, as this may cement Fed easing later this month. Today's jobs report and subsequent Fed communications could be key catalysts for rate expectations and index momentum. Technical approach: - US30 bounced up from retesting the ascending channel's lower bounce, confluence with the support at 45000, and EMA21. - If US30 breaches the resistance at around 45700, the index may accelerate to retest the confluencing area of several Fibo Extension levels at around 46680-46900. - On the contrary, closing below 45000 may prompt a further correction to retest EMA78. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DatTong
Will The Upcoming US Labor Data Keep The Pressure On The Pound?Fundamental approach: - The Pound was mildly softer this week amid firmer US data impulses and pre-NFP caution, while UK growth signals from Aug PMIs offered only limited support to the Pound. - UK Services PMI accelerated to 53.6 in Aug, the fastest in a year, hinting at resilient activity but with persistent employment softness and sticky price pressures, tempering BoE easing bets only modestly. - On the US side, expectations around ISM prints and Friday’s payrolls supported the US dollar, fostering two‑way but USD‑tilted flows. - Looking ahead, GBPUSD could remain range‑bound but potentially break on US NFP and ISM Services; strong US labor and services data may buoy US dollar, while a downside surprise in data could lift the Pound. Technical approach: - GBPUSD printed an engulfing candle, breaking the range of 1.3400-1.3580 to the downside and closing below both EMAs, indicating a short-term shift to bearish momentum. - If GBPUSD remains below the resistance at 1.3400 and both EMAs, the price may plunge and retest the following support at 1.3175. - On the contrary, closing above both EMAs may prompt a recovery to retest the following resistance at 1.3580. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
WTI Edges Up On Big EIA Draw, Risk-on ToneFundamental approach: - Last week, USOIL was modestly higher amid risk-on sentiment and tighter supply signals after a larger‑than‑expected US crude draw. - Support came from the EIA’s reported six-million-barrel crude draw tied to lower imports and stronger exports, reinforcing a tightening balance even as Cushing stocks ticked up; broader sentiment also leaned on expectations of looser Fed policy aiding demand. - Gains were tempered by mixed macro cues, fading Eastern Europe risk headlines, choppy dollar moves, and cautious positioning ahead of the next API/EIA prints. - However, China's Sinopec last week reported a sharp profit drop, citing weak fuel consumption. The trend of subdued fuel demand is likely to continue as factors including lower consumer confidence, rising electric-vehicle adoption and improved fuel efficiency are reducing petroleum demand in China. - Into late week, USOIL could firm if US inventories show continued draws and risk tone improves, while any surprise builds or de‑escalation of supply risks may cap rallies; follow‑through from Fed‑cut pricing and geopolitics could potentially steer near‑term direction. Technical approach: - USOIL found support quickly after closing below the key level at 63.90. The price is retesting both EMAs and closed above the key level at 63.90, signaling a make-or-break situation. The market awaits a clear breakout to determine the short-term movement. - If USOIL closes above both EMAs and breaks the descending trendline, the price may continue to advance to retest the following resistance at 67.50. - On the contrary, closing below the support at 63.90 may prompt a further weakness to retest the next support at 60.00. PS: I shared a piece of the above ideas on The Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by DatTong
Will BTCUSD Confirm a Double-Top Pattern?Fundamental approach: - Bitcoin prices declined amid a risk-off tone and sizeable spot ETF outflows following last week's post-record pullback and liquidation-driven volatility. - Selling pressure was reinforced by Tue's sharp net redemptions from US spot Bitcoin ETFs (about $523M), alongside broader crypto weakness early in the week; traders also positioned around macro risk with attention on policy signals from Jackson Hole. - Concurrently, recent rotations toward ETH products contrasted with BTC's softer demand profile in Aug, adding relative headwinds. - Ahead, BTC could remain sensitive to ETF flow trends and Fed communication. The persistent outflows and cautious risk sentiment may cap rebounds, while a flow stabilization could restore bid momentum. Technical approach: - BTCUSD broke the ascending trendline and was between both EMAs. The price is testing EMA78, which is in confluence with support at 112000. - If BTCUSD breaches the support below 112000 and the neckline of the double-top pattern, the price may plunge to the following support at 106200. - On the contrary, a close above 115000 may prompt a further retest of the broken descending trendline. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
3
Would Firm Treasury Yield Continue to Support USDJPY?Fundamental approach: - USDJPY edged higher this week amid resilient US growth signals and firm Treasury yields, while dovish-leaning BoJ communication kept Japanese rates anchored. Risk sentiment was mixed ahead of Fed minutes and Jackson Hole. - US data and Fed repricing supported the US dollar as markets weighed sticky services momentum and steady consumption into Jul, focusing on how minutes may shape Sep cut odds. - In Japan, authorities maintained vigilance on FX moves and inflation normalization, but BoJ policy settings and modest wage/inflation follow-through limited Yen support. - USDJPY could remain supported if Fed minutes and Jackson Hole skew hawkish, while any signs of softer US demand or a stronger BoJ tilt could cap gains. Upcoming US PMIs and durable goods, plus Tokyo CPI, may recalibrate rate differentials. Technical approach: - USDJPY is sideways above the key support at 147.00. The price is slightly above both EMAs and within the ascending channels, indicating a potential upward movement. - If USDJY remains above 147.00 and both EMAs, the price may retest the resistance at 148.60. - On the contrary, closing below support at 147.00 may prompt a decline to retest the following support at 146.00, which is confluent with the ascending channel's lower bound. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Will The Prospect of Fed Rate Cuts Continue to Support US30?Fundamental approach: - US30 has been pushing toward a fresh high this week, aided by softer CPI and growing confidence in a Sep Fed cut. On Wed, it was within about 1% of a record and posted substantial gains earlier in the week. - The US Jul PPI rose 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, well above forecasts, reviving tariff-driven inflation worries and pressuring cyclicals. Earlier CPI relief had supported a midweek bounce and fresh risk-on tone in parts of the market. Headlines flagged mixed mega-cap moves, and Dow heavies like Apple (AAPL) and Caterpillar (CAT) fluctuated with growth and trade sensitivity as traders reassessed the rate path. - US30 could remain supportive as markets weigh amid Fed policy expectations that could shift based on next week's flash PMIs and further data signals on pricing and activity. Traders may also react to guidance updates and sector rotations if inflation surprises persist, potentially delaying aggressive easing prospects. Technical approach: - US30 created a new swing high, closing above the resistance at 45000. The index is above both EMAs, indicating upward momentum. - If US30 remains above 45000, it may approach the 100% Fibonacci Extension at around 46670. - On the contrary, staying below 45000 may prompt a retest of the EMA21 and the ascending channels' lower bound. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DatTong
Will the US Inflation Data Drive a Breakout for USDCAD?Macro approach: - USDCAD edged higher this week amid softer Canadian labor data, boosting BoC cut odds and pre‑CPI caution that kept the USD supported as traders eyed key US inflation prints. - Canada shed 40.8k jobs in Jul while unemployment held at 6.9%, reinforcing expectations for a 17 Sep BoC cut and pressuring the loonie. With Canada's calendar light, focus shifted to the US, where Jul CPI/PPI and Retail Sales are set to steer Fed cut probabilities that sit near 85–90% for Sep, anchoring USD tone into the data. - In short, US inflation and activity data could drive USDCAD direction, while oil's resilience may cushion CAD. A softer US CPI/PPI may weigh on USD and support CAD, but it is limited (Oil trend and Sep rate cut), whereas sticky prints could extend USD firmness into the week. Technical approach: - USDCAD formed a Triple-Bottom pattern and broke the descending channel to make a swing high at around 1.3878. The price retraced and retested the support at around 1.3755 and bounced to close around EMA78. The price is captured within a tight trading range of 1.3755-1.3850, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the trend. - If USDCAD closes above both EMAs and the resistance at 1.3850, the price may retest May's resistance area at around 1.4000. - On the contrary, closing below the support at 1.3755 and the ascending channel may prompt a correction to retest the key support at 1.3567. PS: I also provide a quick view on DXY regarding US CPI data today via Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Will Gold Make a New High Amid Prospect of Sep Fed Rate Cut?Fundamental approach: - Gold gained this week, supported by renewed trade tensions following new US tariffs on major partners and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in Sep. - Safe-haven demand strengthened after weak US NFP data heightened concerns about economic growth and reinforced market bets on monetary easing, while US President Trump's tariff announcements drove risk aversion. - Comments from Fed officials signaled openness to policy adjustments, keeping investors focused on future rate moves even as the US dollar softened and global equities stabilized. - XAUUSD could remain resilient if upcoming US labor and inflation data continue to disappoint. Technical approach: - XAUUSD fluctuates within a broad range. The price is forming a big Triangle Formation, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the next movement. - If XAUUSD breaches above the Triangle Pattern and the resistance at 3433, the price may continue to advance with the measured target at 3600. - On the contrary, closing below support at 3560 may prompt XAUUSD to continue range-bound movement by retesting support at 3273. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
Will The Soft NFP Data Resume the Strength of Dow Jones?Macro approach: - The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced this week, rebounding strongly as risk appetite improved following last week’s pullback, supported by a soft jobs report and easing global tariff concerns.  - Sentiment was aided by the Fed’s increased hopes of a near-term rate cut after Non-farm Payrolls missed expectations, prompting a 1.3% surge on Monday. Broader market sectors responded favorably to resilient earnings and softer economic prints.  - The index may remain sensitive to upcoming US inflation data, US service sector data and Fed communications, with labor market softness and further trade headlines poised to influence direction this and next week. Technical approach: - US30 significantly rebounded yesterday, erasing half of the losses from the last 5-losing streak last week. The price is hovering around EMA21, indicating a short-term sideways momentum and await for an apparent breakout to determine the trend. - If US30 breaks above key resistance at 45000, the price may surge further to test the Fibo Extension confluencing area around 46800. - On the contrary, failing to hold above the support at 43325, confluence with EMA78, may prompt a deeper correction to the following support at 41750. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DatTong
Will the Canada-US Trade Tension Continue to Impair CAD?Fundamental approach: - USDCAD advanced this week, supported by broad US dollar strength and renewed trade tensions as the US announced higher tariffs on Canadian imports. - The pair was further buoyed after the BoC left rates unchanged and signaled caution amid persistent core inflation and ongoing trade negotiations. - Meanwhile, US labor data indicated that job openings were moderating growth while tariff-related uncertainty weighed on risk sentiment. - The BoC’s decision to keep its policy rate at 2.75% cited domestic economic resilience and the unpredictable US trade policy outlook. - At the same time, negotiations between Canada and the US over trade terms remained in an “intense” phase, with additional tariffs entering effect 1 Aug, adding to downside risks for the Canadian economy. - USDCAD may remain elevated next week as markets monitor follow-through from new tariffs and assess further data on US jobs and Canadian trade. Potential progress or setbacks in Canada-US trade talks and upcoming economic releases could influence direction, while central bank policy signals and risk appetite will remain key catalysts. Technical approach: - USDCAD formed a Triple-bottom pattern at around 1.3567 and bounced up to break the neckline at 1.3755. The price also broke the descending trendline and closed higher than both EMAs, indicating a potential trend reversal. - If USDCAD remains above the support at 1.3755 and both EMAs, the price may retest the resistance at 1.3980. - On the contrary, closing below the support at 1.3755 and both EMAs may lead USDCAD to retest the key support at 1.3567. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
2
Will Upcoming Data Determine the Next Gold's Direction?Macro approach: - Gold retreated this week, reversing early gains to trade near four-week lows amid renewed US dollar strength and caution ahead of the Fed's policy decision. - The retreat was mainly pressured by stronger-than-expected US economic data and a tentative revival in risk appetite, offsetting pockets of safe-haven demand. - Key drivers included robust US GDP growth for 2Q, a bounce in consumer confidence, and the Fed's steady rates with a more hawkish tone, suggesting cuts may be further out. - Meanwhile, recent US-EU and US-China trade deals eased some global uncertainty, damping gold's appeal as a hedge.  - Market participants also eyed the labor market's continued cooling, but resilient consumer spending further buoyed the dollar. - Gold may remain volatile, with potential upside if upcoming US PCE inflation and NFP reports disappoint expectations. Any escalation in trade tensions or signals of Fed policy easing could renew support for gold prices. Technical approach: - XAUUSD fluctuated within the range of 3285-3560, which is below the broken ascending trendline. The price between the two EMAs awaits an apparent breakout to determine the next trend. - If XAUUSD breaks below the support at 3273, confluence with EMA78, the price may plunge to retest the following support at 3167. - On the contrary, remaining above the support at 3273 may lead XAUUSD to retest the resistance at around 3560. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by DatTong
2
Will DXY Get Supported With Fresh US-EU Trade Agreement?Macro approach: - The US dollar index has traded mixed since last week, pressured by lingering trade uncertainty and cautious market sentiment ahead of major economic events.  - Dovish Fed expectations and subdued US inflation continued to weigh on the greenback, while news of a fresh US-EU trade agreement and upcoming talks with China contributed to two-way price action. - Economic data reflected a resilient labor market but flagged moderating US growth, with investors closely watching forthcoming GDP figures and the Fed's policy stance. - The US dollar index may remain range-bound as markets await catalysts, including the Fed meeting, the 2Q GDP release, and key labor market data. Technical approach: - DXY surged and closed above the descending trendline and the resistance at around 98600, indicating an early signal of a shift in the market trend. - If DXY maintains above 98600, it may retest the following resistance at 99400, confluence with EMA78. - On the contrary, closing below the descending trendline and EMA21 may prompt a retest of the swing low at 96.60. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
Will USTEC Continue Its Rallies Amid Better Market Sentiment?Macro approach: - USTEC advanced modestly this week, supported by upbeat corporate earnings and resilience in economic data amid ongoing policy uncertainty.  - The index benefited from strong expected results in major tech firms such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), as top giant AI leadership, helping to bolster sentiment despite lingering concerns about tariffs and Fed policy direction. - US macro data showed sticky inflation in key categories, robust retail sales, and falling jobless claims. This prompted the Fed to retain its cautious stance on rate cuts while markets reassessed policy expectations. Policy-related headlines and manufacturing sector developments also partly drove market volatility. - USTEC could remain sensitive to incoming tech earnings, the 29-30 Jul Fed meeting, and potential US tariff announcements in early Aug. Persistent inflation and any surprises in central bank communication may drive volatility in the sessions ahead. Technical approach: - USTEC trended higher and created a new record high. The price is above both EMAs, indicating a strong bullish momentum. - If USTEC stays above the support at 22900, the price may continue toward the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension at around 23867. - On the contrary, breaking below the support at 22900 and EMA21 may prompt a deeper correction to retest the following support at 22000. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CITYINDEX:USTECH100CFDLong
by DatTong
Will The Emerging Uncertainties Support Gold Ahead?Macro approach: - XAUUSD advanced this week, supported by broad-based US dollar weakness and reviving safe-haven demand amid rising global trade tensions. The yellow metal briefly reached a five-week high as investors sought safety following headlines of escalating US tariffs and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy direction. - Gold may remain well-supported if risk aversion persists, with upcoming global PMIs and further US trade developments set to guide market direction. Additional Fed commentary and central bank actions could trigger new volatility for XAUUSD throughout the week. Technical approach: - XAUUSD remains above both the EMA21 and EMA78, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum. The recent price action shows consolidation below the resistance at 3430 after rejecting the swing high. In contrast, higher lows have formed above the ascending trendline and the support at 3285. - If XAUUSD stays above the support at 3560, it may extend towards the previous swing high at around 3430 and open for another record high. - On the contrary, if the price drops below the support at 3560 and the ascending trendline, it may retreat toward the following support at 3165. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
Will USTEC Continue to Climb Amid Key Catalysts Ahead?Fundamental approach: - USTEC climbed to fresh record highs this week, supported by positive investor sentiment amid consolidation ahead of key catalysts. - Sentiment was buoyed by expectations of continued AI and semiconductor strength, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) registering gains, while Tesla (TSLA) rebounded on optimism despite recent volatility. However, persistent tariff threats and uncertainty around US trade policy generated caution, with markets jittery as investors eyed incoming earnings reports and inflation data releases for further direction. The term structure in tech remains constructive, with buyers stepping in on minor pullbacks, showing little sign of trend exhaustion. - USTEC may face heightened volatility as the next round of corporate results and updates on US tariffs could shift sentiment. Upcoming earnings from major tech firms and macroeconomic releases, including key inflation and consumer confidence data, could set the tone for the index's next move. Technical approach: - USTEC closed above the range of 22650-22900, and also above both EMAs, indicating a strong upward momentum. - If USTEC maintains above 22900, it may continue to rise to 78.6% Fibonacci Extension at around 23870. - On the contrary, closing below 22900 may push the price to retest the previous support at 22650. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CITYINDEX:USTECH100CFDLong
by DatTong
Will The Prospect of a BoE Rate Cut Continue to Dampen GBPUSD?Macro approach: - GBPUSD has weakened since last week, pressured by disappointing UK economic data and rising expectations of a BoE rate cut. Meanwhile, the US dollar found support amid cautious risk sentiment and anticipation of key US inflation data. - UK GDP contracted for a second consecutive month in May, and recent labor market surveys signaled further cooling, reinforcing the case for the BoE's monetary easing. Governor Bailey reiterated that the path for rates is "downward," with markets now pricing in a high probability of a cut at the Aug meeting. - Meanwhile, the US dollar was buoyed by safe-haven flows and firm inflation expectations ahead of the US CPI release, highlighting policy divergence between the Fed and BoE. - GBPUSD may remain under pressure as traders await UK inflation and employment data, which could influence the BoE's next move. The pair could see further volatility with US CPI and Fed commentary also on the radar as potential catalysts. Technical approach: - GBPUSD is retesting the ascending channel's lower bound, confluence with the key support at 1.3420. The price is between both EMAs, indicating a sideways movement. GBPUSD awaits an apparent breakout to determine the short-term trend. - If GBPUSD breaches below the support at 1.3420, the price may plunge toward the following support at 1.3175. - On the contrary, holding above 1.3420 may prompt a short correction to retest EMA21. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Short
by DatTong
Gold Holds Above $3,300 Amid Trade Policy UncertaintyMacro approach: - Gold traded defensively this week, consolidating above the $3,300 level amid shifting risk sentiment and anticipation of significant trade policy developments. The yellow metal's performance was pressured by a firmer US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions, as optimism around potential trade deals and tariff suspensions reduced safe-haven demand. - Market drivers included resilient US economic data, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, and ongoing trade negotiations. The 9 Jul deadline for suspended US tariffs and President Trump's threats of new levies on BRICS countries kept investors on edge, while the release of FOMC minutes and strong NFP further dampened expectations for imminent Fed easing. Despite these headwinds, underlying concerns over US fiscal deficits and global policy uncertainty supported Gold's longer-term appeal. - Gold may remain volatile as markets await clarity on US trade policy and the 15 July US CPI release. Both could influence Fed rate expectations and risk appetite. Any escalation in trade tensions or disappointing economic data could revive safe-haven flows into Gold. Technical approach: - XAUUSD consolidated within a tight range of 3285-3560, just lightly above the ascending channel's lower bound. The price is at EMA21, indicating that a bullish momentum is still intact. The market is waiting for an apparent breakout to determine the trend. - If XAUUSD breaks above 3560, the price may retest the following resistance at 3430. - On the contrary, closing below support at 3285 may allow Gold to retest the following support at 3165. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
3
Gold Prices Pull Back Amid Profit-Taking and Unchanged Fed ratesMacro approach: - Gold prices have recently pulled back as investors took profits at elevated levels to offset losses elsewhere amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and steady Fed holding rates. - Speculation is mounting that the US may involve into the Middle East conflicts, raising fears of a broader regional tensions. - Meanwhile, a dovish Fed outlook signaling two potential rate cuts this year and concerns over growing US debt continues to provide underlying support for gold prices. Technical approach: - XAUUSD is retesting EMA21, and the support level is around 3560. The price is above both EMAs, indicating that the upward momentum is intact. - If XAUUSD closes below EMA21, it may continue to plunge and retest the following support at 3285, which is the confluence with the ascending trendline. - On the contrary, remaining above 3560 may prompt a potential retest of the key resistance at around 3430. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by DatTong
Will Oil Prices Face Downward Pressure After EIA's Forecast?Macro approach: - The EIA’s latest short-term outlook projects weaker oil prices as rising global inventories weigh on the market. Sluggish demand growth and increased production are expected to push output above consumption, building stockpiles and adding pressure on prices. - Traders are also monitoring the ongoing US-China trade talks in London. Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic after US Commerce Secretary Lutnick described the negotiations as progressing well. - On the supply side, Saudi Aramco has reduced its Jul oil shipments to China by 1 million barrels compared to Jun, suggesting that the recent OPEC+ production hike may not translate into substantial new supply. Technical approach: - USOIL retested both the descending trendline and resistance near 64.50 before pulling back. The price remains above both EMAs, signaling that bullish momentum is still intact. - A breakout above 64.50 and the descending trendline could open the door to 68.00–70.00. - However, failure to clear this resistance may lead to a retreat toward the 60.00 support level. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by DatTong
Can Tech Strength Still Drive Markets Amid Trade Tensions?Macro approach: The Nasdaq 100 (USTEC) began Jun with strong momentum after its best monthly performance since 2023, fueled by robust tech earnings and a brief lull in tariff concerns. - However, renewed US-China trade tensions resurfaced early in the week, briefly weighing on sentiment before a market rebound restored cautious optimism. - Nvidia (NVDA) surged due to the continued demand for AI chips. At the same time, Tesla (TSLA) drew investor focus ahead of its 12 Jun robotaxi launch, helping maintain positive momentum in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Technical approach: - USTEC is now testing the previous swing high near 218000, staying above both EMAs, a sign of ongoing bullish strength. - A clear break above 21800 would likely open the path toward the record-high zone near 22200. - Failure to do so may trigger a pullback toward the nearest support of around 20700. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CITYINDEX:USTECH100CFDLong
by DatTong
Is Gold’s Recovery Pausing or Gaining Momentum?Macro approach: - Gold rebounded sharply from mid-May lows, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. - However, the rally lost momentum near a two-week high as profit-taking and easing US-EU trade tensions cooled demand. - Longer-term fundamentals remain supportive, with persistent central bank buying, particularly from China, underpinning bullish sentiment. Technical approach: - Technically, XAUUSD broke above its descending channel and retested the breakout. The price remains range-bound between 3285 and 3560, and we await a clear breakout. - Closing above 3560 could open to 3430. - On the contrary, a break below 3285 risks a decline toward 3135. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
2
Senate Advances Stablecoin Bill, JPMorgan Backs Bitcoin AccessFundamental approach - The US Senate has cleared the GENIUS Act, its long-awaited stablecoin framework, after marathon talks. A final vote is expected after the Memorial Day break (26 May). - JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon says the bank will soon allow clients to trade bitcoin through third-party custody, adding fresh tailwinds to institutional demand. - Spot-bitcoin ETFs are on track for a sixth straight week of net inflows, reinforcing the bid beneath prices. Technical approach: - Price is probing resistance at 106200 within a well-defined rising channel. The widening spread between both EMAs underscores building bullish momentum. - A decisive close above 107000 opens the door to 113000. - On the contrary, a drop through the support at 101400 would lead to a deeper correction to around the following support at 93000. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
1