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USDJPY - Pressured by Softer US DataFundamental approach: - The US dollar-yen declined within a larger consolidated range this week, pressured by softer US data and some unwinding of long-dollar positions. - Softer US indicators and the recent Fed rate cut have reinforced expectations for additional easing, pulling US real yields expectation lower and limiting upside in US dollar-yen. At the same time, even as the BoJ hikes, expectations rise; the still–wide US–Japan rate gap means yen gains are likely to be gradual, with dips in USDJPY still attracting buyers. Overall risk sentiment has been mixed, with investors balancing concerns about US growth against the ongoing appeal of carry in higher-yielding currencies. - USDJPY may remain sensitive to incoming US data, especially NFP data today, and any shift in Fed communication that could alter rate-cut expectations. Technical approach: - USDJPY closed below EMA21, indicating a potential exhaustion of the previous upward momentum. - If USDJPY breaches the support at 154.70, the price may plunge toward the next support level at 153.00, a confluence with the EMA78 area. - Conversely, remaining above the support at 154.70 may prompt USDJPY to retest the immediate resistance at 156.80. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Short
by DatTong
EURGBP | Will it extend last week's pressure?Macro approach: - EURGBP has extended last week's pullback into this week, pressured by a slightly more resilient pound as markets reassess how quickly the BoE may ease policy.​ - The euro has softened against sterling as recent Eurozone data and ECB communication have not added fresh hawkish momentum, encouraging some unwinding of long-euro positions built earlier in the quarter. At the same time, UK assets have found some support as investors question how aggressive future BoE cuts will be, limiting downside for the pound despite ongoing domestic growth headwinds.​ - EURGBP may remain under mild downward pressure if upcoming UK activity and inflation data further reduce expectations for BoE easing. At the same time, Eurozone releases fail to revive confidence in the bloc's growth outlook. Upcoming BoE and ECB remarks, along with key UK and Eurozone data prints this week, could set the tone for whether this corrective bias extends or pauses.​ Technical approach: - EURGBP is declining toward EMA78 after retesting the broken level at 0.8750. The price is forming lower swings, indicating bearish pressure. - If EURGBP breaches below EMA78, the price may plunge toward the immediate support at 0.8675, confluence with the ascending trendline. - Conversely, staying above 0.8750 may prompt a further retest of the previous swing high around 0.8800. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Short
by DatTong
XAUUSD | Broke Symmetrical Triangle pattern --> Bullish BiasMacro: - Gold prices advanced this week as renewed demand for hedges and expectations for Fed rate cuts offset still‑elevated US yields. Persistent geopolitical risks and concerns about the global growth outlook continued to underpin safe‑haven interest in gold.​ - This week’s gains were supported by softer US data, including weaker private payroll indicators, which strengthened expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut at its upcoming meeting. These developments have weighed on the dollar at times, helping gold prices hold near recent highs, even as benchmark US Treasury yields hover around 4.10% rather than falling decisively. Structural drivers also remain in place, with investors and central banks maintaining exposure to gold as a hedge against policy missteps and inflation surprises.​ - Gold prices may stay supported if upcoming US inflation data and Fed communication confirm a path toward easier policy and a softer dollar. Any downside surprise in inflation or a more dovish‑than‑expected Fed stance would likely reinforce that narrative. At the same time, a hawkish shift or stronger‑than‑expected data could prompt a temporary pullback. Gold may also react sharply to any escalation in geopolitical tensions or negative growth surprises that tighten financial conditions, as both factors tend to boost safe-haven demand and influence real-yield expectations.​ Technical: - XAUUSD broke the Symmetrical Triangle pattern and rose toward the resistance at 4245 before consolidating within a tight range of 4200-4245. The price is above EMA21, indicating an upward momentum remains. - If XAUUSD breaches above 4245, the price may surge and retest the ATH area at around 4365. - Conversely, closing below 4200 may prompt a further correction toward EMA21 area. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
BTCUSD: Onchain data: Good Buy?A. Onchain current landscape: - MVRV Ratio: Dropped from 1.83 to 1.64 - Well below the 2.0 "heated market" threshold - Far from the 3.5 "overheated" danger zone Interpretation: Market is NOT overextended; substantial upside room remains - Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): Declined from 0.45 to 0.39 Entered "Anxiety" zone, trending toward "Fear". Historically, NUPL below 0.40 marks excellent accumulation zones Signal: Weak hands being shaken out, strong hands accumulating B. Exchange Flow Dynamics: Smart Money is Accumulating Critical Pattern Observed: - Nov 11: -2,579 BTC (outflow - accumulation) - Nov 12: -659 BTC (outflow - accumulation) - Nov 13-14: +777 BTC, +5992 BTC (large inflows during panic selling) - Nov 15-16: Mixed flows, continued selling pressure - Nov 17: -4,036 BTC massive outflow Analysis: The -4,036 BTC outflow on Nov 17, as price stabilized around $92k, is the first reversal signal. Smart money accumulated aggressively at depressed prices while retail capitulated. C. SOPR Analysis: Capitulation in Progress Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Timeline: - Nov 11-12: Above 1.0 (healthy profit-taking) - Nov 13-17: Below 1.0 (0.989-0.994) Critical Insight: When SOPR falls below 1.0, it means investors are selling at a loss, a classic capitulation signal. This typically marks local bottoms and excellent entry points for patient buyers. It means, we need to be patient and accumulate on key supporting levels. D. Supply Dynamics: Weak Hands Exiting Supply in Profit: Dropped from 73.6% to 64.5% 35.5% of BTC supply is now underwater (up from 26.4%) This reset creates a stronger foundation for the next leg up Investors who bought near the top are capitulating, clearing sell pressure Whale Accumulation: Follow the Smart Money BTC whales added ~30,000 BTC during the dip Value: ~$3 bln in fresh whale accumulation E. Technical levels: - Strong supporting zone: 85000-88000. - Confluence with descending channel's lower bound. F. The Edge: While headlines scream "crypto winter" and retail capitulates in fear, seasoned investors recognize this as a gift, a chance to accumulate a scarce, institutional-grade asset at a 26-30% discount from all-time highs, with clear onchain evidence of smart money accumulation. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
2
DXY | Price Action - Awaiting a Clear BreakoutMacro approach: - US dollar index has traded slightly weaker so far this week, pressured by rising expectations of another Fed rate cut and soft US data at the start of Dec. Sentiment toward the greenback has been cautious amid a pullback in US yields and ongoing repricing of the Fed’s policy path.​ - Markets are increasingly discounting a high probability of a Dec FOMC cut as recent communication and prior easing have reinforced the view that policy is moving deeper into an easing cycle, undermining the US dollar’s yield advantage. At the same time, the latest ISM manufacturing release showed activity remaining in contraction territory, adding to concerns over US growth momentum and limiting support for the currency. Risk appetite in equities and metals has also improved, further reducing near‑term safe‑haven demand for the dollar.​ - US dollar index may remain under pressure if the upcoming US labor market data and services surveys indicate further cooling, reinforcing the case for additional Fed easing. Key catalysts include this week’s jobs indicators, the ISM Services Index release, and fresh Fed speeches, which could potentially shift rate-cut expectations and drive renewed volatility in the index.​ Technical approach: - DXY consolidated within the range of 99.00-100.28. The index is between both EMAs, indicating a sideways movement remains intact. - If DXY breaches above 100.28, the price may rise toward the following resistance at 101.70. - Conversely, closing below EMA78 and 99.00 may prompt a further decline toward the subsequent support at 97.60. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXY
by DatTong
GBPUSD | Opportunities Before UK Autumn Budget DataMacro approach: - The pound appreciated against the US dollar as markets focus on the UK Autumn Budget and shifting expectations for US data and Fed policy this week. - The UK Autumn Budget is the key event, with uncertainty over possible tax rises and spending cuts undermining confidence and keeping the pound under pressure. Recent data showing UK inflation easing to about 3.6% in Oct has boosted expectations of a BoE rate cut in Dec, which also weighs on the pound. - On the US side, expectations for a Fed rate cut in Dec have climbed to 80%, putting downward pressure on the US dollar and US yields. - Contrarian view: while the upcoming UK Autumn Budget (scheduled for 26 Nov) is a significant risk, the negative sentiment may have been fully "priced in" by earlier declines.​ Markets are in a "wait-and-see" mode. The lack of fresh negative news today has allowed the pound to stabilize and edge higher as traders square positions before the actual budget announcement. Technical: - GPBUSD is retesting the broken descending trendline, which is slightly above the key support at 1.3100. The price is between both EMAs, awaiting a clear breakout to determine the short-term trend. - If GBPUSD breaches above EMA78, the price may continue heading toward the following resistance at 1.3215. - Conversely, closing below the key support at 1.3100 may prompt a downward momentum to retest the previous swing low at 1.3040. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
2
NASDAQ-100 (USTEC) | Elevated risks arise Sentiment: - Extreme Fear in the market (F&G = 23) - Investors are bearish (49% bearish vs 37% bullish) - Volatility elevated but not extreme (VIX 20) - Higher Put activity and an elevated put/call ratio (1.11) - Hedge funds unwinding crowded AI longs (50% market cap concentration) - Record institutional options activity positioning for Q4 2025-Q1 2027 - COT report: No latest data due to the US government shutdown Interpretation: - Put hedge elevated = cautious as institutional hedging and distributing stocks to retail - Extreme Fear + High Bearishness = Potential buying opportunity (later stage) - When sentiment is this negative, often near bottoms Fundamental: - Valuation Concerns: - 24-25x Forward P/E - vs 20-22 for 5-year average - 3.08-3.37x P/S ratio - 2.35-2.41 for 5-year average - Dec Fed cut probability is declining Technical: - USTEC broke the ascending trendline and EMA21, indicating potential mean reversion to EMA78, which is just above the support cluster at around 24000. - Breaking below 24000 may prompt a decline to the following support cluster at around 23000, which is a prominent zone for sentiment contrarians step into the market if market fear remains at an extreme level. My take on this: - The distributing process may last for a while before reaching more extreme panic sentiment, prompting consideration of a contrarian approach based on technical levels. - Therefore, we need to watch the price action to determine the best entry setup for the Long position. Then, for now, short-term pressure is the better take. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CITYINDEX:USTECH100CFDShort
by DatTong
EURUSD: Fed less dovish impairs EUR?Fundamental approach: - The euro-dollar traded lower this week, pressured by a firmer US dollar and divergence in monetary policy, as the Fed became less dovish. - At the same time, the ECB held rates steady and maintained a cautious outlook. The euro remained under pressure despite slightly better Eurozone data, with core inflation ticking up but not enough to drive expectations of an ECB rate change; meanwhile, improving risk sentiment and reduced odds of a Dec Fed cut supported the US dollar, helped in part by easing, but not fully resolved, US-China trade tensions.​ - Key drivers included the Fed recent rate cut and Chairman Powell's statement that more easing is not guaranteed, which led to US dollar strength and overshadowed Eurozone retail and inflation numbers that met forecasts. In addition, the ECB's steady rate guidance and optimistic growth forecast failed to support the euro, keeping the EURUSD near three-month lows as investors focused on central bank policy divergence and resilient US labor data.​ - The pair could remain under pressure unless US data softens or the Fed's guidance shifts. Technical approach: - EURUSD plunged after breaking below the key level at around 1.1560. The price is below both EMAs, indicating that a bearish momentum persists. - Remaining below the key resistance at 1.1560 may prompt a continuous decline to retest the support at 1.1400. - Conversely, if EURUSD closes above 1.1560, the price may retest both EMAs confluence with the descending channel's upper bound. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
by DatTong
DXY: Is it going to break the 100 level or not?Fundamental approach: - The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded sideways this week amid stronger global risk sentiment and fading demand for safe-haven assets. The continued US government shutdown delayed key data releases. - At the same time, the ISM Services PMI rose to an eight-month high, and the ADP report showed stronger-than-expected private job gains, supporting a cautious Fed outlook on further rate cuts. Nevertheless, weak consumer sentiment and rising weekly jobless claims reinforced downside pressure on the dollar index.​ - Underlying drivers this week included mixed US data, with upbeat labor and service sector figures contrasting with deteriorating consumer and business sentiment. Investors trimmed bets on imminent Fed rate cuts. - Looking forward, the DXY may remain heavy as long as safe-haven demand stays muted and official US data is delayed due to the shutdown. Technical approach: - DXY retested the psychological level at around 100 and rejected. The price is above both EMAs, indicating upward momentum is still intact. -If DXY remains below 100, the price may retest the following support at 99.40, which is confluenced with the lower bound of the ascending channel. - Conversely, breaching above 100 may prompt a conviction to retest the next resistance at 101.70. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
2
USOIL: Q4/2025 Q1 2026 Action PlansSentiment: - The broader market is cautious in a risk-off environment, which typically translates to concerns about demand and the strength of the US dollar. However, the market is not in a state of panic as the Fear Index is at around 30, opening room for either direction. - Social Media (X/Twitter): The current tone is positive, as participants expect USOil to rise within the range of 57.50-65.00 in the near term, anticipating an upcoming upward breakout. - The COT report shows extremely bearish sentiment regarding the latest data from 26/9 (following the US government shutdown), so we can only have a snapshot of more than a month ago. Although the current sentiment may or may not be as extreme (we need to wait for the latest data), it still reflects the state of market positioning. - I think that Retail is unaware of positioning extremes and is more focused on technical breakout. It may lead to a sentiment shift as a result of a technical breakout and changes in the fundamental narrative. Fundamental: A. OPEC+ Production Shift: - Narrative: OPEC+ has pivoted to MORE cautious supply management. After nine consecutive monthly increases, the group is now implementing only a modest 137k bpd increase for Dec 2025, followed by a production pause for the entire first quarter of 2026. - Rationale: Healthy market fundamentals, low inventory levels, seasonal demand - It means more supportive than what we observed earlier in 2025. Q1 2026 pause suggests OPEC+ acknowledges oversupply risks and is being disciplined. One more thing to note is that the current price is also not entirely factored into this narrative. B. Geopolitical Risk Premium Returning: - Narrative: Recent US/EU sanctions on Russian energy companies and escalating tension in oil-producing regions are providing price support. - Market impact: This narrative provides a fundamental floor for price at least till the end of this year. C. Bearish Fundamentals - Oversupply into 2026: - Narrative: Despite the OPEC+ pause, global oil inventories are expected to rise through 2026 on weak demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases (such as the US production) - Factors: global inventories forecast to rise through 2026, weak demand from China, tariff uncertainties and US production at record levels. - Market impact: Bearish medium-term outlook for Q1-Q2 2026. Technical: - USOIL broke the small blue channel and is expected to reach the measured level at around 65, confluence with the Sep resistances. - If USOIL can hold above 60 (retest the broken channel), it may resume its momentum to retest the key resistance at 62 first, then 65, as measured by the move upon breaking. - Conversely, closing below the support at 59.30 may invalidate the short-term upward view and open the door for further decline, potentially retesting the swing low at 56.80. Conclusion: - Despite a short-term upward momentum until year-end, the prospect for USOIL in 2026 is not as promising. - Therefore, a range of 65-70 is possible for the short term upward plan; however, any surge bejond that may open another opportunity for counter-trade setups in Q1-Q2 2026. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by DatTong
XAUUSD: How Will Gold Prices Move Next?Fundamental approach: - Trade Talks and Gold Sentiment: Gold experienced a sharp correction after reaching record highs, primarily due to improving risk sentiment as optimism grew around US-China trade negotiations. Reports indicate that both nations have reached a preliminary framework agreement on export controls and tariffs, which is expected to ease geopolitical tensions and reduce demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold.​ - Other Pressures: Fed Policy and the US Dollar: The gold market is also reacting to expectations of a Fed rate cut. While a rate cut typically supports gold, the move is largely priced into the market. Recent steadiness in the US dollar, as well as the possibility of a less dovish stance from the Fed, has added further pressure. With traders focusing on upcoming policy signals and macroeconomic data, a "cut and pause" approach from the Fed could prompt continued profit-taking in gold.​ - Outlook: As long as US-China relations remain stable and central banks, especially the Fed, avoid surprising markets with additional dovish measures, XAUUSD may remain under pressure. Technical approach: - XAUUSD significantly declined to the support area of 3890-3950. The price is between both EMAs, indicating a shift to sideways movement. - If XAUUSD breaches the support area, the price may decline to the next support level at 3720, which is confluenced with the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension. - Conversely, remaining above the support area may prompt a retest of the next resistance at 4054. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by DatTong
US500: Strong Upward Momentum Approaching 7000 LevelFundamental approach: - The US500 advanced this week, propelled by strong earnings momentum from tech giants and robust performance in select sectors. Among top movers, Qualcomm rose over 11% following upbeat earnings guidance, while Alphabet and Tesla also rallied ahead of their highly anticipated quarterly results. W.R. Berkley Corporation and Welltower Inc. were notable gainers, reflecting sector rotation and risk-on flows in the index. - Earnings from the 'Magnificent Seven', including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, drove sentiment, with over 86% of S&P 500 companies reporting results above consensus expectations so far this quarter. Tesla's performance was mixed, while Amazon is set to announce slightly lower profits, but the broader group is still outpacing the rest of the market in earnings growth. - Tech earnings and the upcoming FOMC decision are key catalysts that may influence future US500 moves. Broad sector participation and ongoing AI investment could sustain upward momentum if macroeconomic conditions remain supportive. Technical approach: - US500 created a new all-time high this week after breaching the key level at around 6765. The index showed an urgency in moving upward, creating a gap that remains unfilled. US500 is well above the diverging EMAs, indicating a strong upward momentum. However, the index is approaching the upper bound of the ascending channel, which may limit the price movement. - If the current gap remains unfilled, the US500 may continue to move upward and test the psychological resistance at 7000. - On the contrary, rejecting the channel's upper bound may prompt a correction and fill the gap around 6790, retesting the broken level at 6765. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DatTong
Dow Gains on Earnings Optimism and Shutdown Resolution Hopes.Fundamental approach: - The Dow Jones index advanced this week, supported by strong corporate earnings optimism and hopes for a government shutdown resolution.​ - Major earnings reports from technology companies may lead the gains, with IBM scheduled to report Q3 earnings on Wed, 22 Oct, with expectations for AI-driven growth. Additionally, 3M (MMM) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings on Tue, 21 Oct, before market open. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller provided a dovish signal, noting inflation was "not a barrier to rate cuts." - This sentiment pushed US Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year note falling below 4.00%, offering support to equities amid the data uncertainty. - Investors also focused on the potential end to the federal government shutdown, which has created data blackouts for key economic releases, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett indicating the shutdown could end this week.​ Technical approach: - US30 is testing the previous all-time high at around 47000. The index is above both EMAs, indicating a strong bullish movement. - If US30 breaches above 47000, the index may advance to test 127.20% Fibonacci Extension at 47590. - On the contrary, staying below EMA21 may prompt US30 to retest the support at 45700. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DatTong
Will DXY Sustain The Pressure Amid Current Uncertainties?Fundamental approach: - The US dollar retreated this week, pressured by expectations of continued Fed easing and signs of emerging economic weakness. - The Fed's latest Beige Book revealed that economic activity remained flat, with increasing layoffs across districts, and middle- to lower-income households reducing their spending, reinforcing dovish expectations. Chair Powell's scheduled remarks and the ongoing government shutdown, which began on 1 Oct, have delayed critical data. The Sep NFP was not released, and the Sep CPI is rescheduled for Fri, 24 Oct, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar's outlook. - Meanwhile, the euro gained ground as European currencies strengthened against the greenback, with the dollar down around 10% YTD.​ - The dollar may face continued downside pressure as markets await the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is widely anticipated. However, delayed economic data releases could inject volatility into near-term trading.​ Technical approach: - DXY is trading within the ascending channel and retesting the support at 98.60. The index is slightly above both EMAs, indicating the upward momentum persists. - If DXY remains above the key support at 98.60, confluence with the ascending channel's lower bound, the index may rise to retest the psychological resistance at 100.00. - On the contrary, breaking below the support and both EMAs may prompt the DXY to retest the following support at 97.15. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXY
by DatTong
1
USOIL Pressured by Trade Tensions and Oversupply Concerns Fundamental approach: - USOIL prices declined this week, pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and persistent concerns about oversupply.​ - USOIL fell following President Trump's threat of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, starting 1 Nov, which reignited fears of reduced global energy demand from the world's largest consumers. - In addition, easing Middle East tensions removed risk premiums, capping gains. OPEC+ is continuing its production increases, with the group adding 137k bpd in Nov. - US crude inventories also rose by 3.7 mln barrels in early Oct, exceeding analyst expectations and reinforcing concerns about a supply glut.​ - Prices may face further downward pressure as global inventory builds are expected to average 2.6 mln barrels per day through 4Q. However, any progress in US-China trade negotiations or unexpected supply disruptions from Eastern Europe could provide upside support.​ Technical approach: - USOIL strongly declined after retesting EMA21. The price created lower swings, indicating bearish momentum persists. - If USOIL remains below the resistance at 60.30, the price may continue to decline toward the following support at 55.50. - On the contrary, closing above 60.30 may prompt a further correction to retest the following resistance at 62.00. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by DatTong
Will GBPUSD Remain Pressured Amid Upcoming US data next week?Fundamental approach: - The pound-dollar weakened this week amid a firmer US dollar as risk sentiment deteriorated and markets braced for delayed but imminent US inflation data during a federal shutdown. - A risk-off tone, tied to the US government shutdown, lifted the US dollar, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies and pushing the Cable lower as safe-haven demand persisted. - Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled staff to ensure the Sep CPI is published, keeping Fed policy uncertainty in play and supporting the USD into the week’s end. On the UK side, prior data signaled a flat July GDP after a rebound in Jun, tempering optimism ahead of the next monthly print. - The pound-dollar could remain pressured if US CPI and Fed communications reinforce expectations for restrictive policy, although any UK activity surprise may provide a near-term lift. Technical approach: - GBPUSD retested both EMAs before closing below, indicating a bearish momentum. The EMAs are having a dead-cross, signalling a shift in the market structure. - If the GBPUSD remains below the resistance level at 1.3400, the price may continue to move toward the support level at 1.3175. - On the contrary, closing above 1.3400 and both EMAs may prompt the GBPUSD to retest the following resistance at 1.3580. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Short
by DatTong
EURUSD: Bearish Range-Bound as Markets Eye Fed and ECB SignalsFundamental approach: - The euro was range-bound this week amid firm euro-area inflation signals and caution ahead of the key Fed communications, with sentiment also shaped by Eurozone Retail Sales and broader risk appetite drivers. The pair fluctuated as markets weighed stable eurozone core inflation against anticipated insights from the FOMC Minutes and Chair Powell's speech that could recalibrate US rate expectations. - Eurostat's flash showed eurozone headline inflation ticked up to 2.2% in Sep while core held at 2.3%, reinforcing expectations the ECB will stay on hold, even as officials flagged a conditional scope for slight easing if downside risks rise. Fed minutes and Powell's remarks later in the week were set to guide the path for additional 2025 easing, with markets attentive to labor-market and inflation persistence language that could sway the dollar narrative. - EURUSD could stabilize or firm if Fed communications lean dovish and euro-area data avoid downside surprises, but any hawkish inflection from the minutes may cap gains. Near-term catalysts include the FOMC minutes, Powell's speech, and eurozone activity data, which could shift rate differentials and drive volatility. Technical approach: - EURUSD broke the ascending trendline's lower bound. The price is below both EMAs, indicating a bearish momentum. - If the EURUSD breaches the support at 1.5760, the price may head to the next support level at 1.1400. - On the contrary, staying above 1.5760 may prompt EURUSD to retest both EMAs. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Gold Near Records on Shutdown JittersFundamental approach: - Gold climbed this week on safe-haven bids as the US government shutdown froze key data releases, amplifying uncertainty and driving a bid for defensives. - Softer ADP private payrolls and an ISM manufacturing print that remains in contraction supported bullion near record highs, with a softer dollar and easing Treasury yields boosting the appeal of non‑yielding assets. - Multiple independent outlets pointed to shutdown‑driven risk aversion, higher odds of Fed easing after weak ADP, and lingering geopolitical and policy risks as catalysts for stronger bullion demand. Technical approach: - Technically, XAUUSD is hovering near all‑time highs with no clear reversal signal; price holds well above key EMAs, underscoring strong upside momentum. - A clean breakout to new highs could open the door toward the confluence area of 4015-4045, where substantial profit-taking may emerge. - Failure to clear the peak increases the risk of a pullback toward support around 3770, where buyers may reassess the trend's strength. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
Will US Gov Shutdown Continue to Support Bitcoin Prices?Fundamental approach: - Bitcoin prices this week have been driven by renewed risk appetite and positive spot ETF inflows, with sentiment supported by the US government shutdown’s data blackout and expectations of further Fed easing as labor market signals soften. The institutional demand narrative strengthened as US spot ETFs returned to inflows, with assets under management remaining elevated, thereby bolstering dip-buying interest. - Drivers included a modest uptick in the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is still in contraction, and ADP private payrolls showing job losses, reinforcing the view that looser policy could persist and liquidity conditions may remain supportive for the crypto beta. The shutdown has curtailed government data releases, prompting markets to rely on private indicators and amplifying sensitivity to risk sentiment and ETF flow headlines throughout the week. - Bitcoin prices could sustain momentum if ETF inflows remain positive and macro uncertainty keeps rate-cut expectations intact, though volatility may rise with limited official data. Technical approach: - BTCUSD broke the triangle pattern and rose higher, positioning itself above both EMAs, indicating an upward momentum. - If BTCUSD remains above 117000, the price may retest the previous swing high at around 123000. - On the contrary, closing below 117,000 may prompt BTCUSD to retest the broken triangle pattern and the area between both EMAs. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
1
Dollar Index Holds Firm on Fed CautionFundamental approach: - DXY edged higher this week amid firmer US data and cautious Fed rhetoric that tempered aggressive easing bets. Risk sentiment was mixed, with markets awaiting core PCE for policy cues, supporting the dollar on rate differentials and data resilience. - Stronger jobless claims and an upgraded Q2 GDP print underpinned the greenback, while Fed speakers highlighted divisions over the pace of additional cuts, limiting the index's downside. - DXY could stabilize or firm if core PCE surprises, while a soft print may rekindle cut expectations and weigh on the dollar. Technical approach: - DXY broke the descending trendline and retested the key resistance at around 98.60. The index is around EMA21, and it is awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the upcoming trend. - If DXY breaks above EMA21 and key resistance at 98.60, the index may retest the following resistance at 100. - On the contrary, failing to close above 98.60 may lead the index to retest EMA78 or the following support at around 97.15. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
ETH this week: stabilization after liquidations and ETF flows inFundamental approach - ETH prices slipped this week amid a broad crypto pullback following a weekend wave of leveraged liquidations and profit-taking, even as prior spot ETF inflows and easing Fed policy supported risk appetite earlier in the week. Sentiment was volatile as traders digested mixed ETF flow signals and macro easing after the Fed's rate cut. - The main impacting factors included a reported $1.5B in crypto long liquidations, which are pressuring majors. ETH prices posted their weakest two-day stretch since late Aug as risk unwound into Monday's session. Offsetting factors were mid-Sep net inflows into US spot ETH ETFs, led by BlackRock's product, and growing anticipation for Dec's Fusaka upgrade aimed at scaling Layer 2 data capacity. - In the near term, ETH could stabilize if ETF flows remain favorable and macro conditions stay supportive; however, further deleveraging and data-sensitive risk sentiment could keep swings elevated. Upcoming catalysts include continued daily ETF flow prints, developer communications around the Fusaka timeline, and features that may influence medium-term adoption. Technical approach: - ETHUSD is forming a lower high and lower low pattern within the defined range of 4080-4756. The price is awaiting a clear breakout to determine the upcoming trend. - If ETHUSD breaks below the support at 4080, EMA78, and the descending channel's lower bound, the price may retest the following support at 3384. - On the contrary, closing above 4260 may help ETH prices gain momentum to retest the descending channel's upper bound. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
by DatTong
Will AUDUSD Continue To Gain On The Theme of a Fed Cut?Fundamental approach: - AUDUSD edged higher this week amid a softer US dollar. Aug US CPI came in slightly hot but reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut. RBA policy remained steady following Aug’s cut and a data‑dependent stance. - US dollar moves were driven by Aug inflation at 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY, and a labor market picture softened by benchmark revisions, keeping markets positioned for a Sep Fed easing, which weighed on the greenback. - Australian policy settings stayed unchanged after the Aug RBA cut to 3.60%, and officials reiterated data dependence, limiting AUD-specific surprises. Risk sentiment improved after the CPI release, adding modest support to pro‑cyclical currencies. - AUDUSD could gain if the Fed delivers a dovish cut and US data cools further. Next week’s Fed decision and any RBA communications on the release schedule are the key catalysts to watch. Technical approach: - AUDUSD broke the ley level at around 0.6600 and rose higher. The price is well above both diverging EMAs, indicating a bullish structure. - If AUDUSD continues to rise, it may retest the resistance at around 0.6700. - On the contrary, struggling to close above 0.6700 may prompt a correction to restest the support at 0.6600. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Will US30 Reach A New Record High After Today's NFP?Fundamental approach: - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) rose this week amid cooling US labor signals that reinforced expectations for a Sep Fed rate cut, while upbeat ISM services activity tempered growth concerns. - ADP private payrolls slowed and jobless claims ticked higher, bolstering bets for easier policy ahead of today's NFP release. This kept risk appetite supported through Thu record-setting close in broader indices. - The ISM Services PMI accelerated to 52.0 in Aug, with stronger business activity and new orders, but continued employment contraction, a mix consistent with disinflationary growth that equity markets favored. Salesforce (CRM) underperformed on a cautious revenue outlook even as rate-cut hopes lifted cyclicals within the Dow complex. - Looking ahead, the index could extend gains if payrolls and earnings metrics cool without signaling a hard landing, as this may cement Fed easing later this month. Today's jobs report and subsequent Fed communications could be key catalysts for rate expectations and index momentum. Technical approach: - US30 bounced up from retesting the ascending channel's lower bounce, confluence with the support at 45000, and EMA21. - If US30 breaches the resistance at around 45700, the index may accelerate to retest the confluencing area of several Fibo Extension levels at around 46680-46900. - On the contrary, closing below 45000 may prompt a further correction to retest EMA78. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DatTong