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Waiting for that NFLX ShortNetflix risk is very high and reward very low. Worst of the FANG stocks for sure. Netflix has almost doubled this year with no mean reversion or accumulation of volume A pullback on netflix could see it lose 75% of its value if it returns to weekly volume node. I wouldn't usually short such a big gainer as NFLX, but the opportunity could present itself if it continues to rise as a parabola could short when that parabola breaks. I would watch for major momentum shifts downward, blow off tops, and break in upward trendlines to find long-term shorts with good R:R. Somewhat unrelated but if the global market goes bearish long term, Netflix would see the largest downside of the FANG stocks. I am not doom and gloom on the market or anything. I think finding some short opportunities both short term and long term is a good way to keep capital safe from unexpected market swings so we should always keep it on our minds and allocate some earnings to bearish plays when opportunity arises. By the way. Great alternative to NFLX in entertainment space is DIS: - Netflix net income: $671 million - Disney net income: $11.5 billion - Netflix market cap: $160 billion - Disney market cap: $149 billion Disney is at major support here, and a break down from a symmetrical wedge on the weekly is unlikely. Disney is generally safer being long established and dividend stock, but especially safe and bullish right now per its chart.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by autemox
THE WEEK AHEAD: DIS, AKS, P, TSLA, TWTR, X, MU, DISHWith most of the earnings heavy hitters in the rear view mirror, there isn't much to trade this week of quality from an earnings announcement volatility contraction standpoint, with DIS being the standout name. DIS announces on Tuesday after market close with a 30-day implied volatility of 25%, which is in the upper half of its 52-week range. The May 18th 96/97 16 delta short strangle pays .97 with a 75% probably of profit, which isn't horrible, but I'd rather have a background implied above 50%. One underlying that I don't usually trade earnings that caught my eye, however, was DISH, with an implied of >50%, which is at the top end of its 52-week range. It announces earnings on Tuesday before market open. You can naturally play it for earnings-related vol contraction (the May 18th 20-delta 30.5/37.5 short strangle's paying .88), but the chart may suggest taking a directional shot instead. I'll set out several bullish assumption plays in a separate post that would take advantage of its "being on its butt-dom." On the slip side of the coin, there are several individual names that have that ~50% metric I'm looking for that have already announced and that may be worth nondirectional plays that are just as -- if not more productive -- than the Disney earnings play if set up in the June monthly. Here they are, ranked by their 30-day implied volatility percentages: AKS (65.5) (straddle), P (59.2) (straddle), TSLA (53.9) (strangle), TWTR (49.5) (strangle), X (48.6) (strangle), and MU (47) (strangle).* On the exchange-traded fund front, not much is attractive, having all fallen below 35% 30-day implied: XOP (29.3), EWZ (28.5), SMH (26.9), EWW (24.9), FXI (22.8), so I'm unlikely to consider putting on a play in one of those unless something substantially changes as the week evolves. Moreover, my tendency is to set those up in the monthlies nearest 45 days until expiration and June (40 days 'til) is starting to "fall out of that window," with July (75 days 'til) being too far out in time. * -- You can naturally consider going defined risk with some of these, using iron flies instead of naked short straddles; iron condors instead of short strangles.
NYSE:DIS
by NaughtyPines
2
Disney Long PositionWith the recent release of the Last Jedi plus the "Incredibles 2" movie coming in June of next year, I could expect some positive returns between now and then for a long term holding position until mid June. This is low to medium risk, and amid the market acceptance of their movies and continued "hotel" growth. However, with recent box offices and the acceptance of another half a billion dollar box office within a year, it is likely a continued growth of at least 4 to 5% current market prices.
NYSE:DISLong
by gamer456148