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Dowjones

DOW JONES close to a Triangle break-out leading to 47500!Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since April 24. Following the August 21 Low, it entered a short-term Ascending Triangle pattern, looking identical to May - June, which also started after a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) test. That pattern was a re-Accumulation phase, which after breaking upwards pushed the price just below its 2.5 Fibonacci extension. With also similar 4H RSI sequences, we expect a similar reaction upon a Triangle break-out, targeting 47500 (Fib 2.5 extension). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
DowJones important support at 45190Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 45800 Resistance Level 2: 46000 Resistance Level 3: 46200 Support Level 1: 45190 Support Level 2: 44960 Support Level 3: 44720 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US30
by Trade Nation
US30 Strategy: Sideways Range, Liquidity Run, and Entry Zones📊 Dow Jones (US30) Update 📊 The Dow Jones (US30) is currently bullish 🟢📈 and pushing higher on the 4H timeframe ⏰. We can see a value area forming 🏦, with price ranging sideways 🔄 and building liquidity above and below the range 💧. My plan is to watch for a potential liquidity run above the range 🚀, followed by a deep pullback 🔽 that could present a high-probability entry opportunity 🎯. ⚠️ This outlook is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. 📚
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by fxtraderanthony
1
Dow Jones (YM) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date: September 8, 2025 Current Price: 45,537 Market Session: Post-Market Analysis --- Executive Summary Dow Jones presents a moderately extended equity position with manageable risk characteristics compared to other major indices. While trading above institutional accumulation levels, the extension is less severe than S&P 500 or Nasdaq, making it the least dangerous of the equity exposures. However, institutional positioning analysis reveals limited upside potential with asymmetric risk favoring defensive strategies. --- Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis Institutional Positioning Intelligence The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals a concerning pattern typical of extended equity markets in late-cycle environments: Primary Institutional Activity Zone: 42,000-43,500 Moderate blue volume concentration representing historical institutional positioning Current price (45,537) trades approximately 2,000+ points above primary accumulation Volume density significantly lighter than commodity accumulation patterns Institutional activity appears distributed rather than concentrated Extension Analysis: Core Accumulation: 42,500-43,000 (peak institutional activity) Extended Zone: 43,500-44,500 (moderate institutional interest) Current Level: 45,537 (approximately 5-7% above institutional positioning) Void Risk: Above 46,000 (minimal institutional support visible) Resistance Structure Analysis: 45,800-46,200: Immediate resistance with mixed volume activity 46,500-47,000: Historical distribution zones from previous highs 47,500+: Complete institutional void representing extreme overextension Price Structure Context Historical Pattern Recognition: The current Dow Jones setup displays classic late-cycle equity characteristics where price has methodically ground higher above institutional accumulation zones. Unlike the catastrophic voids seen in S&P 500 and Nasdaq, YM shows a more measured extension that may be sustainable in the near term. Relative Risk Assessment: Manageable Extension: 5-7% above institutional levels vs 15%+ in other indices Blue-Chip Nature: Dow composition includes more defensive, dividend-paying companies Institutional Memory: Historical support levels around 42,000-43,000 well-established Risk Definition: Clear institutional boundaries provide defensive positioning reference Sector Composition Considerations Dow Jones Defensive Characteristics: Utilities and consumer staples providing defensive anchor Financial sector exposure to interest rate sensitivity Industrial components reflecting economic cycle positioning Technology weight lower than growth-focused indices --- Execution Chart Technical Analysis Current Technical Configuration - DETERIORATING MOMENTUM DEMA Analysis - WARNING SIGNALS EMERGING: Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at 45,537 Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at 45,480 Configuration: Bullish but narrowing gap indicating momentum loss Trend Bias: Technical momentum weakening despite bullish configuration DMI/ADX Assessment - MOMENTUM DETERIORATION: ADX Level: Declining from previous highs, currently around 25-30 +DI vs -DI: +DI losing dominance, -DI starting to gain ground Momentum Direction: Showing signs of exhaustion after extended advance Trend Strength: Weakening ADX suggests institutional conviction fading Stochastic Analysis - OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS: Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Overbought territory with negative divergence Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Extended levels showing momentum fatigue Divergence Analysis: Price making new highs while momentum indicators lag Support and Resistance Levels Critical Technical Levels: Current Resistance: 45,800 (near-term extension limit) Key Resistance: 46,200 (major resistance zone) Major Resistance: 46,800 (dangerous overextension territory) Immediate Support: 45,200 (DEMA cluster) Key Support: 44,500 (institutional extension boundary) Major Support: 42,500-43,000 (primary institutional accumulation) --- Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria Scenario 1: Defensive Profit-Taking Setup (PRIMARY) Optimal Conditions for Position Reduction: DEMA momentum loss: Gap narrowing between black and orange lines DMI deterioration: -DI gaining on +DI with weakening ADX Stochastic overbought: Both timeframes showing exhaustion signals Volume analysis: Declining volume on any advance attempts Resistance respect: Failure to break above 46,000 cleanly Profit-Taking Protocol: Primary Action: Reduce positions by 50-75% at current levels Secondary Reduction: Complete exit on any bounce to 46,000+ Stop Management: Trail stops using 300-point intervals Cash Allocation: Redirect capital to commodity opportunities Scenario 2: Range-Trading Setup (SECONDARY) Conditions for Tactical Range Trading: Defined range: 44,500-45,800 (institutional boundary to resistance) DEMA maintaining bullish bias within range Volume profile respect at key levels ADX below 25 indicating sideways consolidation Range Trading Parameters: Long Zone: 44,500-44,800 (institutional boundary approach) Short Zone: 45,600-45,800 (resistance approach) Stop Distance: 300-450 points maximum Position Size: Reduced allocation (1% account risk maximum) Scenario 3: Breakdown Short Setup (AGGRESSIVE) Short Entry Conditions: DEMA bearish crossover: Black line breaking below orange line Support violation: Break below 44,500 institutional boundary Volume confirmation: Increased volume supporting breakdown DMI alignment: -DI gaining clear dominance over +DI Short Setup Parameters: Entry Range: 44,200-44,400 on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: Above 45,000 (failed breakdown) Targets: 43,000, 42,500, 42,000 (institutional accumulation zones) Risk Management: Tight stops given counter-trend positioning --- Risk Management Protocols Position Sizing Guidelines Conservative Approach (Strongly Recommended): Maximum Risk: 1% of account (reduced from standard due to extension risk) Contract Calculation: Account Size × 0.01 ÷ (Stop Distance × $5) Example: $100,000 account with 400-point stop = 50 contracts maximum Rationale: Extended positioning requires defensive allocation Stop Loss Hierarchy Tactical Stop: 45,000 (execution chart support cluster) Strategic Stop: 44,500 (institutional extension boundary) Emergency Stop: 43,800 (institutional accumulation approach) Portfolio Management Framework Defensive Positioning Strategy: Current Holdings: Reduce exposure by 50-75% New Positions: Avoid until return to institutional levels Capital Reallocation: Redirect to commodity opportunities (NG, CL) Monitoring Frequency: Daily assessment of momentum deterioration --- Market Context and External Factors Fundamental Considerations Affecting Dow Performance Economic Cycle Positioning: Federal Reserve policy uncertainty affecting financial sector components Industrial sector sensitivity to economic slowdown concerns Consumer discretionary weakness impacting retail components Utility sector providing defensive characteristics in uncertain environment Sector Rotation Implications: Value vs growth rotation potentially favoring Dow components Dividend yield advantage in higher interest rate environment Defensive sector weighting providing relative outperformance potential International exposure through multinational components Technical Market Structure Relative Performance Analysis: Outperforming S&P 500 and Nasdaq on risk-adjusted basis Less extended from institutional levels than growth indices Better volume profile support at key technical levels Defensive sector composition providing downside protection --- Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels Daily Monitoring Requirements DEMA Configuration: Watch for gap narrowing or bearish crossover Institutional Respect: Monitor behavior at 44,500 extension boundary Volume Analysis: Track volume patterns on any advance attempts Sector Rotation: Monitor defensive vs growth sector performance Correlation Analysis: Track relationship with bond yields and dollar strength Critical Alert Levels Risk Escalation Alerts: DEMA bearish crossover below 45,400 Break below 44,500 institutional extension boundary Volume breakdown with accelerating selling pressure ADX rising with -DI dominance confirming bearish momentum Defensive Action Triggers: Any failure to break above 46,000 on multiple attempts Stochastic negative divergence with price at new highs Sector rotation away from Dow components toward defensives Federal Reserve policy announcements affecting interest rate expectations --- Strategic Outlook and Risk Assessment Risk/Reward Analysis Asymmetric Risk Profile: Upside Potential: Limited 500-800 points to dangerous overextension Downside Risk: 2,000+ points to institutional accumulation zones Risk/Reward Ratio: Unfavorable 1:3+ downside vs upside Probability Assessment: Moderate (40%) for further upside, High (70%) for correction Portfolio Allocation Recommendation Defensive Positioning Required Dow Jones represents the least dangerous equity exposure in current market conditions but still requires defensive management. The 5-7% extension above institutional levels, while manageable compared to other indices, suggests limited upside potential with significant correction risk. Priority should be placed on systematic profit-taking and capital reallocation to higher-conviction commodity opportunities. Allocation Framework: Current Portfolio Weight: Reduce to 5-8% maximum (from previous levels) Entry Method: Avoid new positions until institutional level return Hold Period: Short-term tactical only, exit on weakness Exit Strategy: Systematic reduction on any bounce attempts --- Conclusion and Strategic Assessment Dow Jones offers the best risk profile among equity indices but remains fundamentally challenged by extension above institutional positioning. The defensive sector composition and less severe overextension provide relative safety, but the asymmetric risk profile strongly favors capital preservation over growth seeking. Current conditions warrant defensive positioning with readiness to exit entirely on any momentum deterioration. Strategic Priority: Capital preservation and systematic risk reduction while maintaining readiness for complete exit if institutional extension boundaries are violated. Next Review: Daily monitoring of momentum indicators and institutional level approach Position Management: Systematic profit-taking with defensive stop management --- Important Disclaimer Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor. Key Risk Considerations: Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance does not guarantee future results Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework. The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by mxb1961
Dow Jones Under Pressure as Bond Yields SurgeUS30 – Dow Jones Update The Dow Jones erased 250 points as September began with soaring bond yields, dragging stocks lower after the long weekend. Nasdaq was the session’s biggest loser despite showing pre-market strength. Technical Outlook: The index reached our support target at 44,950, exactly as projected yesterday. For now, price is expected to consolidate within the 45,285 – 45,110 zone before the next move. 🔼 A confirmed 4H close above 45,285 would support a bullish continuation toward 45,460 → 45,680. 🔻 Conversely, sustained trade below 45,110 would re-open the bearish path toward 44,950 → 44,720. Key Levels: Pivot: 45,285 Support: 45,110 – 44,950 – 44,720 Resistance: 45,460 – 45,680 – 45,860
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
Dow Jones Overextended: Watching for an Institutional Unwind 📊 Dow Jones (US30) remains bullish 🟢, but in my view, it’s looking overextended 📈. Price has traded into a key level 🎯 where we could see a potential pullback, especially as we approach the end of the week 📅, when institutions and big money 💼 may begin unwinding positions. 👀 The play here is to watch for the high of the week/day ⏫ and look for a counter-trend reversal 🔄 that could drive price lower into the weekly close 📉. ⚠️ Keep in mind: Monday’s opening often creates a stop run 🛑 possibly offering a deeper pullback, giving us a double dose of liquidity grabs 💧. This sets the stage for a fairly deep retracement, which could present an opportunity to counter trend short if conditions align 🧩. 📌 My focus is on a break below the current range 🔓 as a trigger for potential entry. ⚠️ This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice 📚
PEPPERSTONE:US30Short
by fxtraderanthony
Will US30 Reach A New Record High After Today's NFP?Fundamental approach: - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) rose this week amid cooling US labor signals that reinforced expectations for a Sep Fed rate cut, while upbeat ISM services activity tempered growth concerns. - ADP private payrolls slowed and jobless claims ticked higher, bolstering bets for easier policy ahead of today's NFP release. This kept risk appetite supported through Thu record-setting close in broader indices. - The ISM Services PMI accelerated to 52.0 in Aug, with stronger business activity and new orders, but continued employment contraction, a mix consistent with disinflationary growth that equity markets favored. Salesforce (CRM) underperformed on a cautious revenue outlook even as rate-cut hopes lifted cyclicals within the Dow complex. - Looking ahead, the index could extend gains if payrolls and earnings metrics cool without signaling a hard landing, as this may cement Fed easing later this month. Today's jobs report and subsequent Fed communications could be key catalysts for rate expectations and index momentum. Technical approach: - US30 bounced up from retesting the ascending channel's lower bounce, confluence with the support at 45000, and EMA21. - If US30 breaches the resistance at around 45700, the index may accelerate to retest the confluencing area of several Fibo Extension levels at around 46680-46900. - On the contrary, closing below 45000 may prompt a further correction to retest EMA78. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DatTong
DowJones Key Trading Levels ahead of US Employment DataKey Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 45766 Resistance Level 2: 45920 Resistance Level 3: 46080 Support Level 1: 45050 Support Level 2: 44900 Support Level 3: 44730 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US30
by Trade Nation
Dow Jones (DJI) – 1H Technical OutlookDow Jones (DJI) – 1H Technical Outlook Bias: Bearish while below 45,450. Key Resistance: 45,350 – 45,450 (failure to break above keeps sellers in control). Immediate Supports: 45,100 44,980 – 44,860 Major support at 44,700 📉 Primary Scenario: If price remains capped below 45,450, a downward move towards 44,700 is likely after a minor corrective bounce. 📈 Alternative Scenario: A breakout and sustained close above 45,500 would invalidate the bearish view and open the door for a rally towards 45,800 – 46,000.
SPREADEX:DJI
by crptfxtrader
US30 Pullback Toward 44,600 Within Ongoing UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around the 44,600 zone. Dow Jones (US30) is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level. Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, but price is pulling back after recent highs. Key level in focus: 44,600 — a significant area where buyers may look to step in and continue the upward trend. Fundamentals: Market sentiment remains broadly supportive for equities, with risk appetite steady as investors weigh U.S. economic data and central bank policy outlook. Trade safe, Joe.
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by JoeChampion
5
DOW JONES Buy opportunity on oversold 4H RSI.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 31 High and yesterday hit its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and rebounded. Every short-term break just below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) of this pattern since August 11, has been the most optimal buy opportunity. Technically as long as the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) holds, the medium-term trend remains bullish. Given also that the 4H RSI made an oversold rebound, first since August 04, we have a strong buy signal currently, which based on the previous Bullish Legs of the pattern, can rise by at least +2.67%. As a result, our short-term Target is 46100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
Dow Jones Falls from Record HighsOver the past two trading sessions, the Dow Jones index has declined by just over 0.7%, with selling pressure remaining constant. This move has been tied to the rebound in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which climbed to 4.27%, reducing the short-term appeal of equities. In addition, investors are awaiting the release of U.S. employment data at the end of the week, as the results could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. Uptrend Remains Intact Despite the recent pullback, the short-term declines have not been strong enough to break the uptrend that has remained in place for the past several months. This technical structure continues to be the most relevant in the short term. Unless selling pressure consolidates over more sessions, the upward trend is likely to remain dominant in the coming days. Technical Indicators RSI: although the RSI remains above the 50 level, it has begun to show a downward slope in the short term, which could indicate a shift in market momentum. If the line continues to decline, selling pressure could become more relevant in the sessions ahead. MACD: the MACD histogram continues to hover around the 0 line, indicating that the average strength of the moving averages remains in neutral territory. This highlights the lack of clear direction in the short term. Key Levels to Watch: 45,746 points – Relevant Resistance: corresponds to the Dow Jones record highs. A sustained breakout above this level could pave the way for a continuation of the uptrend. 45,023 points – Near-Term Support: coincides with recent lows and may act as a barrier for potential short-term pullbacks. 43,098 points – Critical Support: aligns with the 100- and 200-period simple moving averages. A move down to this zone could confirm a break in the uptrend and give way to a dominant bearish bias. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREX.com
Dow Jones Holds Pressure Under Pivot Zone 45,530–45,590US30 – Overview The Dow Jones remains under bearish momentum, having stabilized in the bearish zone with downside potential toward 45,285. Technical Outlook: 🔻 Bearish scenario: As long as price trades below the pivot zone 45,590 – 45,530, pressure will remain to the downside, targeting 45,430 → 45,285 → 45,100. 🔺 Bullish scenario: A reversal and stabilization above 45,590 would open the way to 45,680, and a confirmed breakout higher could extend toward 45,860. Key Levels: Pivot zone: 45,530 – 45,590 Support: 45,430 – 45,285 – 45,100 Resistance: 45,680 – 45,860 📌 Bias: Bearish below 45,530–45,590; bullish only above 45,590 with confirmation.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
XAU/USD | Breakout in Progress – Are You Ready for the Next ATH?By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that, as expected from our analysis two days ago, the price began its bullish move from the $3383 zone and successfully hit all four targets at $3393, $3398, $3404, and $3409 — but it didn’t stop there! Gold continued its rally beyond those levels. As anticipated in yesterday’s outlook, we closely watched the $3419–$3429 supply zone for a potential bearish reaction. When price reached $3424, it dropped to $3404, validating our second scenario as well. Although the drop could’ve extended further, the combined result of both scenarios delivered over 500 pips of total profit! After hitting $3404, gold gained demand again — and with the release of the U.S. Core PCE data, this bullish trend strengthened, pushing price up toward its all-time high (ATH) near $3500. Gold is now trading around $3447, just 500 pips away from that historic level. Given the increasing odds of a Fed rate cut in September, the bullish momentum is likely to continue. In my view, a new ATH for gold could be on the horizon in the coming weeks. Hope this analysis helps you ride the wave — make the most of it! 💰📈 THE LATEST ANALYSIS 👇🏼 Will $3500 be the next stop for gold? 👀 👇 Drop your thoughts below & don’t miss the next update!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
68
DowJones Key Trading Levels - resistance at 45766 Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 45766 Resistance Level 2: 45920 Resistance Level 3: 46080 Support Level 1: 45050 Support Level 2: 44900 Support Level 3: 44730 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US30
by Trade Nation
1