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Dowtheory

Dow Theory – A Compass to Help Traders Read Market TrendsHello everyone, While Fibonacci, Trendlines, or Price Action can help you find precise entry points, nothing is more fundamental and reliable for understanding the market’s overall movement than Dow Theory . This isn’t an obscure or overly academic concept—it’s very practical. In fact, it underpins most of the trend-following strategies that traders use today. Whether you trade Forex, Gold, Stocks, or Crypto, the core question remains the same: Is the market trending up, trending down, or just in a temporary correction? If you can’t answer this, all other technical analyses become meaningless. That’s why Dow Theory was developed—to serve as a compass, helping traders grasp the trend and make precise decisions. Applying Dow Theory in Trading The key to using Dow isn’t memorizing its principles; it’s about reading the real market and turning insights into action. When combined with tools like EMA and MACD , the market picture becomes much clearer: EMA shows the direction and momentum of price, while MACD alerts you to potential reversals. For example, when prices are rising and EMA is pointing up, a MACD crossover or divergence signals a potential entry along the trend. At the same time, watching price patterns such as Head & Shoulders or Double Top/Bottom helps you anticipate trend reversals, avoiding false moves and short-term traps. Of course, all these tools only work effectively if you manage your risk carefully , set Stop Loss levels based on price structure, and risk only a small portion of your account per trade. Dow reminds us that a trend continues until there’s a clear reversal signal, so don’t fight the market just because of a few opposing candles. Once you grasp this principle, reading charts , identifying trends , and trading with the flow of money becomes natural and precise, without guesswork. More importantly, you’ll know when to stay out to preserve capital and when to step in to maximize profits. That’s why Dow Theory remains a solid foundation for any trader looking to trade with the trend, whether in Forex, Gold, Stocks, or Crypto. So, are you ready to catch the market waves with Dow and capitalize on every swing?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by EmmaChartist
7
US30 Trade Plan – Range Breakout + Smart Money ManipulationI’m currently watching the US30 (Dow Jones Index) 🏦. On the 4-hour timeframe, we can see a strong uptrend forming — higher highs and higher lows 📈. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen, but having a solid trading plan is key ✅. Here’s mine: On the 30-minute timeframe, price is currently moving within a defined range. If we see a break above the range, followed by a retracement and failed retest of the range high, I’ll be looking for a long opportunity 🚀. If price instead breaks below the range, there could also be a short opportunity, though my preference is to stay long given the higher-timeframe bullish structure ⚙️. ⚠️ Keep an eye out for market manipulation — smart money algorithms often trigger fake breakouts to draw in buyers before sweeping liquidity and continuing the move. Stay alert and manage risk carefully. 📉 Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by fxtraderanthony
The ugliest crash in our history close? I truly believe with western powers developing digital IDs and other technology, etc. to monitor and control the public... and in some cases replace the human race... it's in line with what I believe will be one of the biggest market crashes in human history, equal or bigger to 1929. GET READY. IT WILL HAPPEN WITHIN THE BLACK ZONE. The powers in control know! The 2030 Agenda is prepared for this. And they are keeping the public distracted. History repeats! There is a purpose to everything!
TVC:DJIShort
by CSGold1
TradeCityPro Academy | Support & Resistance Part 1👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel 🎓 Educational Section Technical Analysis Training Series Welcome to the Educational Content Section of our channel! Here, we aim to teach you technical analysis from A to Z through structured playlists. We’ll cover everything from risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, and market cycles, to more advanced concepts. Our lessons are based on both real market experience and The Handbook of Technical Analysis. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to forecast price movements in financial markets by analyzing historical data, especially price and volume. It’s based on the idea that history tends to repeat itself, and that recurring patterns can reveal profitable trading opportunities. 🧩 The Human Concept of Support and Resistance Support and resistance aren’t just numbers on a chart — they’re the result of collective human behavior. When large groups of traders make similar decisions — buying or selling — at a certain level, that area becomes psychologically important in the market. Support forms where fear of missing out (FOMO) drives people to buy. Resistance forms where fear of loss motivates people to sell. 💭 The Psychology Behind Formation In a downtrend, when prices fall too much, traders start thinking “It can’t go any lower”, and buying pressure increases — forming support. In an uptrend, when prices rise sharply, traders think “It’s too expensive now”, and selling pressure builds — forming resistance. So, these levels reflect emotions like fear, greed, and FOMO, rather than being purely technical. 🌍 Real-World Example When the USD price drops so low that everyone rushes to buy it — that’s support. When gold becomes so expensive that no one wants to buy anymore — that’s resistance. Markets operate on these same human instincts — only visualized through candlesticks and numbers. 🧩 Introduction In technical analysis, two key concepts exist in nearly every strategy: Support and Resistance. These are areas on the chart where the probability of price reaction or reversal is high. 🟢 What is Support? A support level is where buying pressure is expected to increase and prevent further price decline. It acts like a floor that supports price. 📘 Example: If Bitcoin repeatedly bounces from the $60,000 level, that area is considered a support zone. 🔴 What is Resistance? A resistance level is where selling pressure increases, preventing further price growth. It acts like a ceiling that stops price movement upward. 📘 Example: If Ethereum fails multiple times to break above $3,800, that area is a resistance zone. 📈 How to Identify Support and Resistance There are several methods to detect these levels: Previous Highs and Lows: The most common method — look for areas where price has reacted before. Trendlines: In an uptrend, connecting higher lows gives you a dynamic support line. Moving Averages (MA): MAs like MA50 or MA200 often act as dynamic support or resistance. Supply and Demand Zones: Areas where heavy buying or selling previously occurred. ⚙️ Market Psychology Support and resistance are emotional memory points for traders. When price reacts to a level once, it becomes mentally significant, leading to similar reactions in the future. That’s why these zones often repeat over time. 🔄 Breakouts and Role Reversal When price breaks a support or resistance level with strong volume and momentum, that level changes its role: Broken resistance → becomes new support Broken support → becomes new resistance This concept is known as Role Reversal. 🎯 Importance of Timeframes Support and resistance zones on higher timeframes (Daily, Weekly) carry greater significance, since more traders and larger volumes are involved. 🧠 Pro Tips ✅ Always treat support and resistance as zones, not fixed price points. ✅ If price approaches a level with strong momentum, it’s more likely to break it. ✅ Combine S/R with candlestick reactions, volume, and indicators for confirmation. ✅ Levels that repeat multiple times usually grow stronger over time. 💬 Summary Support and resistance are the foundation of technical analysis. Understanding them helps you find better entry and exit points and gain a deeper insight into market psychology.
Education
by tradecitypro
11
Continuously making HH HLBTC Analysis CMP 112510.14 (12-10-2025 02:58AM PST) Continuously making HH HL & is Still Bullish in the longer run. as shared on 02-06-2025, Cup & Handle Target hit around 115000 - 120000 & then dropped. 3 Important Support levels are : S1 around 108000 - 108450 S2 around 95000 - 95200 S3 around 86000 - 86500 S2 seems to be a Stronger Support as this range is also around Channel Bottom. Upside Targets seems to be around 132000 - 132300 initially. BTC seem safe as long as it stays above 74000; if it breaks this level, we may witness trend reversal.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by House-of-Technicals
DOW THEORY PLAY - INTC CONFIRMS BREAKOUT FROM ACCUMULATION PHASEINTC - CURRENT PRICE : 29.58 Key Technical Highlights: 1. Breakout from Accumulation Phase with Strong Volume Intel has successfully broken out of a prolonged sideways accumulation zone. The breakout is accompanied by significantly higher-than-average volume , indicating strong buying interest and institutional participation. 2. New 52-Week High Achieved Price has breached the previous 52-week high, signaling bullish momentum and the potential start of a new price discovery phase. Historically, such breakouts often attract trend-following traders. 3. Golden Cross Formation (look at the red circle) A Golden Cross has formed for the first time in a long period, where the 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA — a classic long-term bullish confirmation. Notably, the last occurrence of this pattern was in July 2023 , making this the first reappearance in over two years, further reinforcing its significance as a potential turning point in market sentiment. 4. Dow Theory Alignment – Public Participation Phase According to Dow Theory, this marks the second phase of a major uptrend — the Public Participation Phase — where broader market participants begin to enter following early accumulation by smart money. This phase typically sees strong price advances. ENTRY PRICE : 28.00 - 30.00 FIRST TARGET : 35.00 SECOND TARGET : 42.00 SUPPORT : 25.00 (CUTLOSS below 25.00 on closing basis) Note : This is related to point no 1. Markets have a tendency to "fall of their own weight." At bottoms, however, markets require a significant increase in buying pressure, reflected in greater volume, to launch a new bull market. A more technical way of looking at this difference is that a market can fall just from inertia. Lack of demand or buying interest on the part of traders is often enough to push a market lower; but a market does not go up on inertia. Prices only rise when demand exceeds supply and buyers are more aggressive than sellers.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by IMRAN_96
SPEL PSX📈 SPEL (PSX) – Buy Call (1-Day Outlook) Technical View Previously: Stock has broken out of a long-awaited rectangle consolidation pattern. And target was hit. Structure now shifting into higher highs (HHs) and higher lows (HLs) → trend confirmation. Price is currently holding in the golden zone (retest area after breakout). Momentum is bullish and intact as long as structure of HH/HL holds. Trading Plan Look for a bullish candlestick rejection in the golden zone as entry trigger. Targets: Short-term traders: book partial profits at the first resistance above breakout. Mid-term traders: hold for continuation toward next resistance zones as long as HH/HL structure stays intact. Confirmation Checklist ✅ Breakout candle closes strong (preferably with above-average volume). ✅ Retest of breakout zone holds with bullish rejection. ❌ Invalidation if price loses HL structure or breaks below retest support. Fundamentals (Quick Pulse) Company is profitable with revenue and income growth. Operates in packaging/auto components → demand relatively stable.
PSX:SPELLong
by SmartMoney-AR
SHOP - BULLISH SCENARIO since 12 MAY 2025 SHOP - CURRENT PRICE : 145.15 SHOP is bullish as the share price is above 50-day EMA. Price action on 12 MAY 2025 is considered starting of bullish scenario because supported by several key indicators : Share price gap up Price broke out 50-day EMA Price moving above ICHIMOKU CLOUD RSI moving above 50 From 1 August (near 50-day EMA support) to 6 August, the stock recorded a strong upward rally. Following this advance, prices entered a corrective phase and retraced approximately 50% of the prior upswing. According to Dow Theory, such a retracement is considered a normal and healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend. Retracements in the range of one-third to two-thirds of the prior move are typical, with the 50% level often serving as a natural equilibrium point where buyers re-enter the market. Sustaining above the 50% retracement level would reinforce the bullish structure, while a recovery from this zone could pave the way for a retest of the recent highs. However, a decisive break below the 61.8% retracement may imply weakening momentum and a deeper corrective phase. Take note that until now the share price is still above 50-day EMA and ICHIMOKU CLOUD while RSI also moving steadily above 50 level. There is also rising support line - strengthening bullish outlook. ENTRY PRICE : 141.00 - 145.50 TARGET : 159.00 and 175.00 SUPPORT : 50-day EMA (CUTLOSS below 50-day EMA on closing basis)
NASDAQ:SHOPLong
by IMRAN_96
18
BTCUSD🚀 BTCUSD – 1H Time Frame Setup 📈 BTC is making HHs & HLs (short-term bullish structure). 🔑 Tried to break resistance 111,835 – 112,000 thrice ❌ — possible breakout on the 4th or 5th attempt. ⏳ 4H & Daily trend still bearish ⚠️ → trade with caution. Currently Ranging! 💡 Trading Plan: ✅ Look for a bullish candle confirmation before entry. 🎯 Partial booking recommended at TP1 → must manage risk after first target. 🛑 Always protect profits / adjust SL. 📊 Best setup if BTC comes near 0.5 Fib (≈ 6.08 level) and then breaks above 111,835 – 112,000 🔓
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by SmartMoney-AR
XAUUSD📈 XAUUSD – 1H Timeframe 🟢 Long Call/ Bullish Candle 🔹 Gold is forming HH & HL (Higher Highs & Higher Lows) on the 1H chart → Uptrend structure intact. 🔹 Fib Retracement Setup → Perfect dip-buy opportunity from CMP (Current Market Price). 💡 Plan: 👉 Buy from CMP 🎯 👉 Book partial profits on resistance levels 🪙 👉 SL below Fib retracement 🔒 🌍 Weekly Fundamental Drivers: 1️⃣ Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, supporting safe-haven demand 🏦 2️⃣ Geopolitical uncertainty & central bank gold buying continue to give long-term bullish momentum 🌐 ⚠️ Risk Management: Stay disciplined — let structure + fundamentals guide your trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SmartMoney-AR
1
Gold Price Drops After Rally – What’s Next?Hello everyone, let's take a closer look at today's gold price Gold has unexpectedly dropped significantly today after a notable rise early last Friday. The market's initial concerns stemmed from rumors that the U.S. would impose an import tax on gold, which caused some panic. However, after the White House officially clarified its position and assured the market, the initial worries eased From a technical perspective, gold has broken through the upward trendline and is moving swiftly. According to Dow Theory, a short-term correction might occur soon, but if the price remains below key resistance levels, the decline could extend toward the Fibonacci 1.272 region, or even down to the Fibonacci 1.618 level if the downtrend persists. Do you agree with this outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Good luck and happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryland_TradingFX
3
Dow Jones: Explosive US30 Trade Setup – Entry,Trap & Exit Mapped💎 Dow Jones Robbery Blueprint: The US30 Vault Crack Plan 💎 (Maximized for reach — within TradingView title limit) 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Market Robbers & Money Movers 🕵️‍♂️💰🚨 This ain't your average analysis — it’s a Thief Trader-style 🔥tactical mission🔥 aimed at the mighty "US30/DJI" (Dow Jones Industrial Average). We're talkin' about a precision heist with a full blueprint: entry zones, trap setups, and escape exits. Read carefully — this ain’t for the faint-hearted traders! 🧠🦾 🧠 Entry Zones (The Break-In) 📈 🛠 ENTRY 1: Candle wick near 44200.0 – that’s the resistance gate. Wait for confirmation. 🎯 ENTRY 2: Sneak in at the Market Makers’ Trap around 43200.00 – a dirty zone where retailers get baited. Perfect time to strike long! 🧱 DCA/Layering strategy recommended. Stack those buy orders like a thief layering explosives on a safe. 💣💸 🛑 Risk Levels (Escape Routes/Stop Loss) 🔊 "Listen up, vault raiders! Never drop your SL until breakout is confirmed. If you jump early, you might land in a bear trap! 🪤" 🔐 Stop Zones (Based on Strategy): 🔐 Max Risk SL (5H TF): If you're deep, your last stand is at 43000.0 ☝️ SL depends on your position sizing, number of entries, and risk appetite. Trade like a thief, not a gambler. 🎯 Heist Target (Profit Exit) 🏁 Escape Point: 46000.0 — or exit before heat rises! Don’t be greedy. Rob and vanish. 💨💰 🔥 Market Mood: Why the Heist Is On "US30/DJI" is bullish AF — thanks to: 📊 Macro-Economic Wind at Our Back 📈 Institutional momentum 📰 Strong sentiment and intermarket flows Check your chart radar: Fundamentals + technicals aligning = green light for robbery! 🟢 ⚠️ Tactical Reminder: News Can Jam the Plan 📵 Avoid new entries during major economic releases 🛡 Use trailing SLs to protect running trades Stay alert, stay alive. 💡 ❤️ Support the Robbery Crew Hit that 💥BOOST💥 — your love fuels our next mission. Join us and ride daily heist plans with Thief Trading Style 🏴‍☠️🚀💰
OANDA:US30USDLong
by The-Thief
1
DOW THEORYBack to the Roots: Learn the Theory, Improve Signal Charles Dow Before we explore Dow Theory, let’s take a moment to understand who Charles Dow was — and why his ideas still matter today. Charles Dow wasn’t a financial expert. He was a journalist with a sharp eye for market behavior. In the late 1800s, he began to write about how prices move, how trends form, and what they might mean. His goal was simple: to bring structure and logic to the chaotic world of stock prices. More importantly, he believed that markets move in trends , and that these trends reflect the collective psychology of all investors. This basic idea became the starting point of technical analysis . Dow created one of the first stock indexes, which helped investors see the bigger picture instead of focusing only on individual stocks. He also promoted transparency in financial data — long before it was required by law. In 1889, Dow co-founded The Wall Street Journal, a newspaper that became the voice of financial markets. Through its pages, he published his observations on price behavior, setting the foundation for what would later be known as Dow Theory . Dow Theory At the heart of Dow Theory lies a simple but powerful idea: The market discounts everything. This means that all known information — earnings reports, interest rates, economic events, political changes, and even future expectations — is already reflected in the price. Price is not random. It is the result of collective investor behavior based on all available knowledge. Charles Dow didn’t write this exact sentence, but his work clearly reflected this belief. He trusted that by analyzing price movements alone, one could understand the overall direction of the market — because price already includes all the important signals. Dow and later analysts outlined a set of guiding principles. These are now known as the Six Core Principles of Dow Theory , and they continue to serve as a foundation for modern technical analysis. The market discounts everything The market moves in three trends Major trends have three phases Averages must confirm each other Volume confirms the trend A trend stays in place until it clearly reverses 🔸🔸🔸 The Market Moves in Three Trends 🔸🔸🔸 According to Dow Theory, market movements are not random. Prices move in three different dimensions and time frames: the primary trend , the secondary trend , and the minor (short-term) trend. These three types of movement often occur at the same time. It is very important for an investor to distinguish between them. The primary trend shows the general direction of the market and can last for months or even years. It’s the major upward or downward movement. The secondary trend refers to corrections or pullbacks that move in the opposite direction of the primary trend. The minor trend typically consists of daily or weekly fluctuations and is often considered market “noise.” These short-term movements can occur in the same or opposite direction of the primary trend and may last from a few hours to two or three weeks. Dow Theory emphasizes that understanding this three-layered structure can protect investors from many mistakes. The theory not only classifies trends but also offers valuable lessons about investor behavior. It especially highlights the importance of three key principles: Don’t go against the main trend Short-term moves can easily confuse traders. Trading against the primary trend often leads to losses. That is why it is crucial to identify the main trend and follow it. Diversify your exposure In Dow’s time, technology wasn’t as advanced as it is today, but he still followed multiple indexes (like industrials and transport) to reduce risk. The same principle applies today: investors shouldn’t rely on a single asset — diversification remains a critical part of managing risk. Define your holding period before entering a trade Each type of trend comes with a different time expectation. The holding period you choose will play a key role in shaping your trading strategy and aligning it with your financial goals. Instead of debating how long each type of trend should last, it’s more important to define your intended holding period before entering a position. Your answer to the question “Which holding period suits me?” reflects not only your trading style and lifestyle, but also determines which chart timeframes and indicator timeframes you should use. 🔸🔸🔸 Major Trends Have Three Phases 🔸🔸🔸 According to Dow Theory, major (primary) trends consist of three phases. This structure reflects how investor psychology changes over time and how those emotions are reflected in price action. Regardless of whether the trend is bullish or bearish, each major trend includes these three stages: Accumulation Phase The first stage of a bull market often looks like a small bounce during a bear trend. Most people still feel negative about the market. They are afraid to buy again after losing money. Trading volume is low, and prices move in a narrow range. The market stops making new lows, but investors are still unsure. Many have left the market or are very careful now. The price action becomes slow and sideways. It feels boring. But during this quiet time, smart investors slowly start buying. This is how a new trend begins — silently and with doubt. However, there is no clear signal that a bull market has started. Buying now carries two big risks. First, the market may still go lower. Second, even if a bull trend is coming, no one knows when it will start. How long can you wait while the market does nothing? Holding positions in a flat market has costs — financial, emotional, and missed opportunities elsewhere. That’s why this phase is difficult for most traders to handle. Public Participation Phase The market begins to recover, and the broader investor base starts to notice positive changes. News improves, technical indicators give bullish signals. Prices rise, and trading volume increases. This is usually the strongest part of the trend. At this stage, more disciplined and research-driven investors — who follow the market closely — start buying in. They see confirmation in both price action and economic data. Their confidence supports the trend, and momentum grows. The market attracts more attention. Confidence replaces fear. Many investors who stayed out during the earlier phase now feel safer to enter. Joining the market during this phase is important. The trend is already underway, but there’s still room to grow. Risk is lower than in the early phase, and potential rewards are still high. For many investors, this is the best time to take a position. Excess Phase The market enters a phase of excessive optimism. Prices have been rising for a long time, attracting more and more participants. However, during this stage, institutional investors and professional traders who entered earlier begin to gradually take profits. Although prices remain high, momentum weakens, and the rate of increase slows down. Looking at the volume profile, prices may reach new highs but often without volume support. Technical indicators frequently show bearish divergences. These conditions generate early technical signals that the primary trend may be coming to an end. 🔸🔸🔸 Averages must Confirm Each Other 🔸🔸🔸 According to Dow Theory, a market trend is considered valid only when different indexes move in the same direction. The term “average” here refers to an index or the general direction of a price series. This principle is used to assess whether a price movement is supported by broad market participation. A single index reaching a new high or low is not enough. For a real and sustainable trend to be confirmed, related indexes are expected to show similar movement and generate signals in the same direction. If this confirmation is missing, the current move may be considered weak or temporary. How to Analyze It: Identify related indexes Choose multiple indexes that represent the same market, sector, or economic domain. Compare trend direction Review the price structures of the selected indexes. Are they all showing similar patterns? Did the new highs or lows form around the same time? Look for confirmation If multiple indexes form new structures in the same direction (e.g., all make new highs in an uptrend), this increases the validity of the trend.If only one index is moving while others are not participating, confirmation is lacking. Be cautious without confirmation When confirmation is missing, trading strategies should be more conservative, or additional signals should be awaited before taking action. 🔸🔸🔸 Volume Confirms the Trend 🔸🔸🔸 According to Dow Theory, the validity of a market trend depends not only on price movement but also on trading volume. For a trend to be considered strong and sustainable, price action should be supported by volume. Why Is Volume Important? In a rising market, increasing volume is expected. This indicates growing investor interest and broader participation in the trend. In a falling market, if the decline happens with high volume, it suggests serious selling pressure and strengthens the trend. Declining volume may signal a loss of momentum and suggest that the current trend is weakening or nearing its end. How to Analyze It: Observe the relationship between price and volume: Price rising + volume increasing → Strong trend Price rising + volume decreasing → Lack of confirmation; caution is advised Check volume during breakouts: If resistance or highs are broken with strong volume → Reliable signal If breakouts happen on low volume → May indicate a false move (fakeout) 🔸🔸🔸 A Trend Persists Until a Clear Reversal Occurs 🔸🔸🔸 This core principle of Dow Theory is at the heart of all trend-following strategies. It states that once a price begins moving in a certain direction, the trend is assumed to continue — until there is clear and technically confirmed evidence that it has ended. Why Is This Principle Important? Follow, don’t predict Instead of guessing what the market will do next, traders stay with the current direction. Reduces emotional decisions Trades are based on technical signals, not assumptions like “the price is too high, it must fall.” A weak trend is not the same as a reversal Not every pullback means the trend is over. You need clear confirmation before assuming a reversal — such as a breakdown, volume shift, momentum loss, or structural change. How to Apply It First, identify the trend direction clearly, and trade in that direction. Pullbacks are seen as normal movements within the trend — not as reversals. Even when signs of a reversal appear, wait for confirmation before acting. Confirmation signals may include: Failure to form new highs or lows A break of previous support or resistance Sudden drop in volume or volume rising in the opposite direction Weakness or divergence in momentum indicators Strategic Benefit This principle is especially useful in trend-following strategies. It helps avoid premature exits and allows traders to stay in profitable trends longer. By focusing on technical confirmation instead of speculation or panic, it encourages disciplined and systematic decision-making.
Education
by ARrowofTime
16