BITCOIN’S FINAL TRAP – THE SENTIMENT SWITCH IS COMING FASTIn my last BTC post I said a dump was likely based on data, and that thesis still stands. If anything, it’s even stronger now. .
On 13 August, CME made a high at 123,590.
That high was weak, no excess, flat TPO top, unfinished auction.
Binance topped at 124,474, Coinbase at 124,522.
CME opened with a gap down, leaving that poor high unrepaired with unfinished business and clean liquidity sitting above.
From 26 September, BTC started grinding up.
I expected a run of the 18 September high and a reversal around 118–119K, but price extended the move to the 1.618 extension. See my last analysis.
Structure was weak, spot CVD flat, futures CVD ripping, open interest climbing.
That shows perps were driving it, not real spot demand.
This week CME finally cleaned it up.
CME ripped through 125,025, taking out the August high at 123,590.
That level matched the old highs on Binance and Coinbase almost perfectly.
CME swept the old poor high left behind by spot and perps, completing the auction.
This is typical CME behavior, it hunts untested reference points during RTH and often reverses right after.
Flow data confirms the setup:
Spot CVD down means real buyers not following.
Stablecoin CVD pushing up means overleveraged longs chasing.
Coin-margined CVD rolling means profit taking or hedge flow.
Open interest flat at the top means trapped longs with no squeeze left.
The move looks like a leveraged markup driven by perps, cleaned up by CME liquidity, and now hanging on air.
CME repaired the August inefficiency, swept the prior spot high, and left another weak high with no excess, a textbook sign of distribution.
There’s still a chance we see one more SFP around 126K before momentum flips, but unless spot demand picks up aggressively, that should be the final liquidity grab.
My targets are 104K and 99K if 104K fails to hold, with potential for an even deeper drop beyond that level.
