USD Bullish Reversal Into Resistance - Next Week Is Pivotal The Fed have pushed back on committing to another 25bp cut in December, maintaining a data-dependent stance. Traders will keep a close watch on next week’s ADP employment and ISM reports to gauge the likelihood of a Christmas cut from the Fed. I update my longer-term outlook for the US dollar index and review the FX majors to pick out the strong from the weak.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index.
Dollar Index Futures DX1!
USD Set To bounce? EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHFIt has been a week since the US dollar plunged following a weak NFP report. Given it has consolidated within a tight range near last week's low, alongside price action clues on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF, I suspect the dollar could bounce before its losses resume.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
A Contrarian View On the US DollarI don't recall the last bullish headline I saw for the US dollar, bearish sentiment may be stretched, and I'm seeing plenty of clues across the US dollar index and all FX majors that we could at least be looking at a minor bounce. Whether it can turn into a larger short-covering rally is likely down to Trump's trade deals. Either way, I'm, on guard for an inflection point for the dollar.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Bears give the USD a break, EUR/USD pullback may not be overThe retracement higher for the US dollar is finally underway, which also shows further upside potential. And this is why I am wary of being long EUR/USD over the foreseeable future, even if I suspect it is poised to break to new highs in the coming weeks.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The Dollar's Demise May Not Be Over Just YetThe US dollar index is on track for its worst week in nearly two and a half years. It is also nearly 6% off from the January high, which is similar in depth to the two previous selloffs seen in 2023 and 2024. Yet I do not think we've seen the low just yet, even if there is evidence of a potential bounce on the daily chart.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
A subtle shift in sentiment suggest the USD rally has stalledIt seems everyone bullish the USD, waiting for its inevitable breakout above 110. But a subtle shift of bullish exposure to USD futures suggests the game is changing, and that a breakout may not be assured. Using market positioning from CME futures markets, dollar index and commodity FX charts, I take a closer look.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and Forex.com
The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, DXY & Nasdaq for Feb 1 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix.
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What if the USD rally is only just getting started?The USD rally has entered its seventh week and continues to defy its seasonal tendency to weaken in Q4. And that is simply because the macro backdrop 'Trumps' its average performance this time of the year. Today I take a step back to admire the bigger-picture view of the USD index, to show why I think this rally could still just be getting started.
MS
It could be the euro's time to shineThis may not be a popular theme, but that is usually the case at turning points. Like it or not, EUR/USD bears have failed to break the August low, and the rally on the USD index and yields looks exhausted. Every trend needs a retracement, and I suspect a small one, at a minimum, is due.
MS.
USD, yields surge on Fed pushback, Trump rebound After just one day of retracing on Friday, the USD bull regained momentum on Monday thanks to Fed members continuing to push back on aggressive easing. Markets are also pricing in a Trump win with some polls suggesting he is ahead in three key states and some bookies even touting for him to win. In the current climate, USD/JPY could be at 152 before we know it.
MS
The dollar surge takes a breather, pullback pending?We finally saw the USD rebound I was beating the drum about back in September. But now it's hit a decent resistance zone, I weigh up its potential to hold its ground or producer a deeper pullback. Markets covered include the USD index, EUR/USD and gold.
MS.
Why the US dollar bear should tread with careThe USD saw a sharp reversal higher despite a 50bp cut, simply because the markets were positioned for a more dovish dot plot. I have argued in prior analysis the USD exposure is a bit stretched over the near-term, so perhaps shorting the USD is getting a bit stale. We also have several key markets at inflection points after a risk event. Matt Simpson takes a technical look.
USD bears! Markets don't move in a straight line (forever)We stand back to admire the long-term chart of the US dollar index, and yes there could be further downside over the coming weeks. But a quick check on the daily timeframe makes us wary of jumping into an already well-established short, given potential support levels nearby and the fact everyone and their dogs seem to be bearish the dollar.
Complete Dollar (DXY) Top Down Analysis =Where Is It Headed Now?Traders and Investors,
Dollar has been on a run again and it is moving towards our multi year target of 113 which we predicted nearly 2 years ago. Although it completed a W pattern and was inside an FCP zone, it did not have a substantial correction. On smaller time frames, it showed a little retaracement but that was not enough. The strength in dollar is taking it to our next multi year target of 113 zone. This zone again will have potential to push the price down or at least sow it a bit. After that we will have 116 as a new intermediate resistance followed by 127 zone.
In this DXY (Dollar) technical analysis we will study few scenarios which can help in understanding what is about to come next few days/weeks.
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DOLLAR - It reminds me of Wolverine... They keep printing it... but it keeps rising
The dollar reminds me of the experiment done on Wolverine, pumped him up with lot's of Adamantium until he became a beast. So here we go we have tons of new dollars but they are heavier than most would understand.
Fed-men Apocalypse, the rise of the mighty X-dollar
How the value of the Dollar and Gold impact marketsThis is a little different than what I usually do. Very straight forward line charts of the IXIC, DJI, and SPY. Showing how the changes in the value of the Dollar over Gold, impact the market. I know this isn’t the only influencing factor, as each market has its own levers, but this simple deviation of the two can weigh heavily on the markets.






















