Get started

Ecb

EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the previous trading session, the Eurodollar market exhibited significant fluctuations between the critical Mean Resistance level of 1.165 and the Mean Support level of 1.159, with the current price oscillating between the two levels. Market sentiment suggests the prevailing Active Inner Decline trend will continue. The ongoing market perspective continues to anticipate a price decrease toward the initial support level, indicated by Mean Support at 1.159, followed by secondary support at 1.155 and the Inner Currency Dip at 1.151. If this downward trajectory continues, it could extend further to the Outer Currency Dip at 1.145, alongside the Key Support level of 1.140. Moreover, it is crucial to remain mindful of the potential emergence of an Active Inner Rebound at the Mean Support of 1.159, which may prompt a subsequent move toward the Mean Resistance of 1.165. Additionally, an Auxiliary Inner Rebound following the Outer Currency Dip at 1.145, in conjunction with the Key Support level of 1.140, will represent alternative rebound thresholds for the currency, along with the Mean Support at 1.155 situated above these levels.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Last week, we had an interesting trading session! The Euro demonstrated a considerable increase after reaching our crucial Mean Support level at 1.155. Nevertheless, this significant upward reversal fell marginally short of the Mean Resistance at 1.174, leading to a subsequent decline in the currency. Current market indicators suggest that this Active Inner Rebound movement is unlikely to be sustainable. Ongoing market sentiment consistently reflects a retracement toward the Outer Currency Dip, designated at 1.145. Should this downward trend persist, it may extend further to the Key Support level of 1.140. Conversely, it is essential to acknowledge and be aware of the emergence of an Auxiliary Inner Rebound following the Outer Currency Dip at 1.145, in conjunction with the Key Support level of 1.140.
by TradeSelecter
French political instability weaken the euroPolitical uncertainty in the Eurozone intensified following the renewed collapse of the French government. Concurrently, German **Industrial Production** unexpectedly contracted by -4.3% MoM, driven by a decline in orders from the US after a front-loading period and recent contractionary signals from the **Manufacturing PMI**. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg ECBSpeak index is approaching neutral territory, signaling a less dovish stance from ECB governors. This shift is attributed to a recent inflation spike, uncertainty over potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and growing pessimism in consumption, as evidenced by the **saving rate** rising to 15.4% in Aug from 15.2% in Jul. Consequently, markets anticipate the ECB will maintain its current interest rate for the remainder of the year. A less dovish ECB stance should provide longer-term support for the euro. However, any significant policy signals from the US government or major data releases in the US could introduce high volatility for the currency pair and other major currencies. From a technical perspective , EUR/USD is trading below the expanding 21 and 78-period EMAs, signaling a continuation of the downtrend. Should the pair sustain a move above 1.1600, the price may retest resistance at 1.1650 and the 21-period EMA. Conversely, a close below 1.1600 could prompt a further decline toward the next support level at 1.1550.
Short
by WiseLeoTrading
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session of the previous week, the Euro exhibited considerable volatility, initially declining to approximately the Mean Support level of 1.153 before experiencing a substantial upward reversal. Current market indicators suggest that this bullish trend may persist, with particular emphasis on the Mean Resistance level identified at 1.165, which could lead to an ascent toward the secondary Mean Resistance at 1.174. Conversely, recent price movements may indicate a reversal, leading to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 1.156, which could complete the Outer Currency Dip at 1.145. Should this downward trajectory continue, it may extend further to the Key Support level of 1.140.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD LONGI have maintained a buy position for quite a while, based on last week's performance, the bullish momentum is slowing down. Going forward the bulls will depend on a new catalyst. The fed officials have maintained a divergent rate cut rhetoric while at the same the US government is experiencing a shutdown. These has made traders to remain cautious. This week we have quite a number of events lined up, including FOMC and NFP. Any negative news towards the dollar while at the same time ECB's Christine Largade maintaining a stability will mean a retest for the pair towards the years high around 1.19200. Better news for the dollar will mean on lower time frames reversal and higher time frames deeper retracements.
Long
by WisdomArnold
Long EUR/USD on USD Weakness Amid Government ShutdownShort-term trade idea: Entry: 1.1740–1.1750 Target: 1.1820 Time Horizon: 1–3 days The ongoing U.S. government shutdown adds downside risk to the dollar, particularly amid softening data and weakening labor market sentiment. Delays in key releases like jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls reduce policy visibility for the Fed and support market expectations for rate cuts in the coming months. Broader risk-off sentiment and pressure on U.S. equities also weigh on the dollar. Meanwhile, the ECB's decision to keep rates on hold confirms a "wait-and-see" approach, which was already priced in. More importantly, there was no dovish surprise. The ECB is not signaling imminent cuts. With eurozone inflation expected to remain firm, rate cut expectations should stay contained, helping to keep the euro supported. This opens the door for EUR/USD to grind higher, with 1.1800–1.1820 as a short-term target. Risks: Rapid resolution of the U.S. government shutdown Strong upside surprise in U.S. ISM or ADP data Hawkish Fed rhetoric pushing back against market dovishness
Long
by x4tsr
EURUSD: 1.18 FORTRESS ATTACK! Dollar Weakness Exposed 🚀 EURUSD: 1.18 FORTRESS ATTACK! Dollar Weakness Exposed 📊 Current Price: 1.17020 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰ 📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days) 🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 1.1680 - 1.1710 📍 Stop Loss: 1.1650 🛑 Target 1: 1.1750 🎯 Target 2: 1.1790 🚀 🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 1.1720 - 1.1750 📍 Stop Loss: 1.1780 🛑 Target 1: 1.1650 🎯 Target 2: 1.1600 📉 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN 📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS: RSI (14): 62.1 ⚡ Euro Strength Building Bollinger Bands: Expansion Mode 🔥 VWAP: 1.1695 - Dynamic Support 💪 EMA 20: 1.1675 ✅ Bullish Momentum Volume: Institutional Flow Rising 📊 🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS: Elliott Wave: Wave C Impulse Active 🌊 Fibonacci Target: 1.1850 (127.2%) 🎯 🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS: Bullish Gartley at 1.1660 Support ✨ Cypher PRZ targeting 1.1780 🔄 ⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks) 🚀 BULLISH TARGETS: Psychological: 1.1800 🏆 Weekly Resistance: 1.1850 🌙 Gann Level: 1.1875 ⭐ 📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION: Weekly Support: 1.1600 ⚠️ Critical Break: 1.1550 🚨 🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE: Trend: Ascending Channel 💪 Momentum: Dollar Weakness 🔥 Wyckoff Phase: Markup Phase 📈 Ichimoku: Bullish Cloud Break 🟢 🏰 1.18 FORTRESS BATTLE: Key Resistance: 1.1780-1.1800 ⚔️ Volume Confirmation: Needed Above 1.1750 💥 Breakout Target: 1.1850 Major Level 🔓 ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT: Max Risk per Trade: 50 pips 🛡️ R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2 ⚖️ London/NY Sessions: Prime Time 📏 🌍 CENTRAL BANK DYNAMICS: ECB Policy Divergence Bullish 🏛️ Fed Dovishness Supporting EUR 📈 Dollar Index Weakness Continues 💵 Rate Differential Narrowing 📊 🔥 CRITICAL LEVELS: Breakout: 1.1750 decisive close 💥 Support: 1.1680 | 1.1650 | 1.1620 🛡️ Resistance: 1.1750 | 1.1780 | 1.1800 🚧 📈 DXY CORRELATION: Dollar Index: Bearish Divergence 📉 EUR Strength: Independent Rally 💪 Cross-Currency: Bullish Flow 🔄 🎯 FINAL VERDICT: EURUSD storming 1.18 RESISTANCE! 🚀 Dollar weakness = Euro rocket fuel! 💎 Multi-timeframe bullish alignment! 📈 Trade Management: Scale in above 1.1680 💰 Breakout Alert: Watch 1.1750 hold! 🔔 --- ⚠️ Disclaimer: FX trading involves significant risk. Use proper position sizing. Educational analysis only. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 🔔 Follow FX Market Updates | 💬 What's Your 1.18 Target Timeline?
Long
by sunya
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 26, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session of the previous week, the Euro successfully retreated to the critical Mean Support level of 1.173 and proceeded to exhibit a continued downward trend, with a subsequent Mean Support level established at 1.166. Current market dynamics suggest a likelihood of sustaining this downward trend. The primary targets identified for this trend include Mean Support levels of 1.160, 1.153, and the Key Support level at 1.140. Conversely, the current price action suggests a potential upward movement towards the Mean Resistance level of 1.174. There exists a modest possibility of extending this rebound to reach the Key Resistance level of 1.181.
by TradeSelecter
Will Germany’s recovery support the euro’s uptrend? Germany’s services sector outperformed, lifting the broader Eurozone economy, with private-sector activity expanding at its fastest pace in about 16 months. The Eurozone August S&P; Global Composite PMI rose to 51.2 from 51.0, while Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 (prev. 50.7, cons. 50.7), falling below the 50.0 expansion threshold. Commerzbank noted that the recent improvement in Eurozone activity is entirely driven by Germany’s recovery, with no signs of momentum from France or other member states. EURUSD is holding above the ascending trendline, maintaining its upward bias. The diverging EMAs suggest the potential expansion of bullish momentum. If EURUSD stays above EMA21, the price may advance toward 1.1850 resistance. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below both EMAs, the price could decline further toward 1.1720.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 🔮✨EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 💵 🎯 Q4 2025 Forecast & Range • Base-case: EUR/USD around $1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, drifting toward ~1.20 by year-end. • Bull case: Faster US slowdown, Fed cuts, euro resilience → test 1.25+. • Bear case: Fed stays hawkish, euro weakens → drop toward 1.15 (with risk down to 1.10–1.12). Upside scenario 🚀: Fed cuts early, ECB steady, risks ease. EUR/USD breaks 1.20, retests 1.22–1.25 zone, option gamma squeezes add momentum. Downside scenario ⚠️: US data strong, Fed stays sticky, crisis drives safe-haven USD. EUR/USD drops below 1.15 → targets 1.10–1.12. On balance: Technicals & positioning favor base/bull outcome. EUR/USD above DMA cluster, sentiment allows more upside. Break >1.18 turns 1.20 into support, opens 1.22–1.25 zone. Invalidation = sharp drop below 1.15. Core thesis: The EUR/USD appears set for a higher range into late 2025 as U.S. dollar exceptionalism fades 💵➡️💶. Markets price a Fed pivot – several rate cuts penciled in by early 2026 – against an ECB that is nearly done easing. That narrows the US–EU rate gap and should weaken the dollar 📉. At the same time, softer US growth/inflation and global portfolio shifts away from US assets may further tilt the balance toward the euro 🌍. Conversely, any U.S. data surprises or policy hiccups could bolster the greenback ⚡. Our baseline view sees EUR/USD around 1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, roughly mid‐range of consensus forecasts 📊. 📉 EUR/USD daily chart (2023–2025) with key support at ~1.15 and resistance near 1.18–1.20. The pair has traded in a ~1.14–1.18 range since early 2025. A decisive break above 1.18 could target ~1.20–1.22 upper trendline, while a drop below 1.15 might reopen ~1.10. ________________________________________ 🔍🌐 Macro & Policy Drivers • 💡 Fed vs. ECB monetary policy (10/10): By late 2025 the Fed is widely expected to start cutting rates possibly two 25bps cuts in Q4 2025, terminal ~3.5% by 2026, whereas the ECB has nearly finished its easing cycle. A shrinking interest gap ECB depo ~1.75%, Fed funds ~3.5% supports the euro. In short, Fed pivot = USD softening. • 📊 US economic momentum (9/10): Any further slowdown or disinflation in the U.S. will prompt Fed easing sooner, undermining the dollar. Conversely, surprisingly strong US data inflation above target, resilient GDP/jobs could keep rates higher longer, capping EUR/USD gains. • 🇪🇺 Eurozone fundamentals (8/10): Europe’s recovery – aided by lower energy costs – is improving. Eurozone GDP is running around ~1–1.5% and inflation is near target, so the ECB likely pauses on cuts. Any signs of renewed growth or fiscal stimulus in the EU e.g. German budget support would bolster EUR. On the other hand, fresh euro-area weakness or political instability could dent the euro. • 🏛️ US political/fiscal factors (7/10): Trade and tax policy continue to influence flows. A reported US–China tariff “ceasefire” has already eased pressure on global trade, but any renewed tariff battles could renew safe-haven USD demand. Meanwhile, US fiscal pressures debt ceiling fights, deficit spending or threats like Section 899 taxing foreign holders of US assets could undermine confidence in the dollar. • ⚔️ Geopolitical risks (6/10): War and geopolitical events tend to drive safe-haven flows. For example, any de-escalation in Ukraine/Middle East risk would remove a bid under USD and help EUR. Conversely, a severe global shock or “risk-off” event e.g. new conflict could rerate USD up. • 📅 Seasonality & flows (4/10): Historically, EUR/USD often sees end-of-year inflows year-end rebalancing and sometimes a modest Q4 rally. Some seasonal analyses note late-November/December strength institutions locking in positions. Weaker USD around year-end if it materializes would amplify this. • 📉 Options and positioning (4/10): Large options strikes and dealer hedging can accentuate moves. For example, heavy call skew on EUR/USD tends to make gains self-reinforcing via delta-hedging. Conversely, if open interest clusters into puts at key levels, dips could be cushioned. ________________________________________ 📈🧭 Technical Roadmap EUR/USD is currently in a multi-month range ∼1.14–1.18. The recent price action shows anchored VWAPs and moving averages 20/50/100-DMA ≈1.153–1.168 converging in that band. • 🚀 Resistance: Clear supply sits ~1.18–1.18 top of range. A daily close above ~1.182 could trigger a move toward 1.20–1.22. Above 1.22, next fib-derived targets near ~1.25. • 🛡️ Support: Immediate support is the 1.161 pivot 50-DMA and then ~1.153 100-DMA. A break below ~1.153 would expose ~1.147 and open 1.10–1.12 psychological and last year’s lows. Below ~1.10, USD strength could dominate. • ⚡ Momentum: RSI and ADX are modest, implying the range could persist until a trigger. A bullish path would need clear Fed dovish hints to break out. A breakout could show the classic “impulse → pause → trend” rhythm. ________________________________________ 🌀🤖 Advanced Models & Cycles Quant techniques also point to a stronger euro ahead: • Fourier-cycle analysis of FX data shows multi-month oscillations (~1–2 years). Mean-reversion cycles suggest the early-2025 USD bounce might flip into a euro-positive Q4. • Neural-network/ML models trained on macro + technical inputs often flag Fed/ECB divergence and seasonality. Academic LSTM studies have shown strong results for EUR/USD direction forecasting. ________________________________________ 🚀 Key Catalysts (Ranked 0–10) 🔑 • 🔟 Fed rate path: The timing/magnitude of Fed cuts is THE driver. Early or larger Fed cuts vs. ECB hold would lift EUR/USD. • 🔟 U.S. economic data: Inflation surprises CPI, PCE and jobs/GDP data move expectations fast. • 🔟 ECB stance: ECB rhetoric and inflation. Stability or hawkishness boosts EUR. • 🟫 US political/fiscal moves: Trade policy, deficit fights, and Section 899 proposals could weaken USD. • 🟩 Eurozone growth & policy: Strong EU growth or fiscal stimulus = bullish EUR. Severe slowdown = bearish EUR. • 🟨 Geopolitical shocks: Escalation boosts USD; de-escalation helps EUR. • 🟦 Energy/commodity prices: High oil hurts EU, boosts USD. • 🟧 Seasonal flows: Q4 rebalancing often lifts EUR modestly. • 🟪 Options positioning: Dealer hedging around strikes magnifies moves. • ⬛ Euro-area politics: Local risks e.g. Italian budgets, German politics. ________________________________________ 🏦📊 Analysts & Institutional Forecasts • JP Morgan: ~1.20 by Q4 2025, ~1.22 mid-2026. • ING: ~1.20 end-2025, ~1.22 in 2026. • UBS: 1.21 end-2025, 1.23 mid-2026. • Morgan Stanley: ~1.25 by Q2 2026 bull case 1.30. • Goldman Sachs: ~1.20 (12M). • Consensus: ~1.15 reflecting caution if Fed cuts are delayed. Summary: The prevailing view is a weaker dollar into 2026. Most big banks have upgraded EUR/USD targets since 2024. Consensus for Dec 2025 clusters 1.15–1.25, with top banks leaning 1.20+.
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
55
Unlocking EUR's Value: A Data-Driven Analysis of Macro Factors📊 EURUSD Technical Forecast | Intraday & Swing Outlook 🚀💶💵 Asset Class: EURUSD (CFD) Closing Price: 1.17432 (20th Sept 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4) 🔎 Technical Overview Trend Context: EURUSD has been consolidating near 1.1740, with mixed signals across short- and mid-term charts. Momentum Check: RSI (H1/H4) → Neutral, close to 50 ⚖️ Volatility: Bollinger Bands tightening → Expect breakout soon 💥 Volume Flow: Anchored VWAP → Buyers defending 1.1720 📈 🕵️ Chart Patterns & Theories Elliott Wave: Wave 4 correction nearing completion – possible Wave 5 uptrend. 🌊 Wyckoff: Signs of re-accumulation in H4 range. 📦 Ichimoku: Price hovering near cloud → watch for bullish breakout ☁️ Gann Levels: Key resistance around 1.1785, support at 1.1700 ⏳ H&S Watch: No clear head & shoulders yet, but traps possible around 1.1760/1.1720 ⚠️ 📈 Intraday Levels (Next 24–48H) 🔹 Buy Zone: 1.1710 – 1.1730 (tight stop below 1.1690) 🎯 Targets: 1.1760 → 1.1785 🔻 Sell Zone: 1.1785 – 1.1805 (stop above 1.1825) 🎯 Targets: 1.1745 → 1.1720 📊 Swing Trading Outlook (Weekly) Bullish Scenario: Sustained break above 1.1805 → eyeing 1.1880 – 1.1925 🌟 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below 1.1690 → drop toward 1.1625 – 1.1580 🕳️ ⚖️ Strategy Recap Intraday: Range trading between 1.1720 – 1.1785 🎯 Swing: Watch breakout levels for trend confirmation 🚀 or ❌ 🌍 Market Context Geopolitics & ECB vs Fed divergence → driving sentiment. Dollar Index (DXY) consolidation near highs → closely linked. 📌 Key Takeaways ✅ Buy dips near 1.1710–30, target 1.1760–85. ✅ Sell rallies near 1.1785–1.1805, target 1.1720. ⚠️ Major breakout zones: Above 1.1805 = bullish 🚀 | Below 1.1690 = bearish ⛔ For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 📝 TRADING CHECKLIST Before entering any position: - ✅ Confirm volume supports move - ✅ Check RSI for divergences - ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment - ✅ Set stop loss before entry - ✅ Calculate position size - ✅ Review correlation with DXY - ✅ Check economic calendar - ✅ Assess market sentiment ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
by sunya
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 19, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session of the previous week, the Euro successfully retested the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.177 and displayed significant upside momentum, reaching and completing the Outer Currency Rally at 1.187, with Key Resistance noted at 1.181. Following this completion, the Euro reversed its course and experienced a sharp decline, ultimately resting at the Mean Support level of 1.173. It is imperative to highlight that the current market dynamics indicate a likelihood of continued downward movement from recent price levels. Attention should be directed towards additional support targets established at 1.169 and 1.162. Conversely, the present price action suggests a potential retest of the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.177 and Outer Currency Rally at 1.187, which will lead to a substantial pullback from these upward targets.
by TradeSelecter
Euro hits four-year high on strong German investor confidence, UThe euro has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1867, up 0.90% on the day. The euro has not been at these levels since September 2021. German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose modestly in September to 37.3, up from 34.7 in August. This blew past the market estimate of 26.3 and the euro has responded with sharp gains. The survey of financial experts indicates cautious optimism, with the outlook for the export sector showing promise after a prolonged decline. At the same time, the index monitoring the current economic situation worsened, declining to -76.4 from 68.6, below the market estimate of -75.0. It has been a bumpy road for Germany, which is the only G7 economy that has not posted growth in the past two years. Once the locomotive that drove the eurozone economy, Germany finds itself the laggard of the bloc. US retail sales for August were stronger than expected at 0.6% m/m. This was unchanged from an upwardly revised 0.6% in July and easily beat the market estimate of 0.2%. Retail sales increased across most sub-categories, as consumers showed they were in a spending mood despite a weaker job market and higher prices due to President Trump's tariffs. Annualized, retail sales jumped 5.0%, up from an upwardly revised 4.1% in August and above the forecast of 3.2%. At the same time, consumer sentiment has been softening, with consumers concerned about the impact of the tariffs. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since December 2024. The money markets have fully priced in a rate cut, with a quarter-point reduction practically a given. Investors will be looking for clues about the possiblity of additional rate cuts before the end of the year.
by OANDA
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 5, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the most recent trading session, the Euro demonstrated significant upward momentum. Initially, it declined to the Mean Support level of 1.164 before commencing a robust upward trend that culminated in reaching the Mean Resistance level of 1.172. Current analyses indicate that the primary targets for the Euro include the Mean Resistance level of 1.177, as well as the Key Resistance level of 1.181, and a long-anticipated target set at the Outer Currency Rally level of 1.187. The ongoing price action may result in a notable retracement from these upward targets.
by TradeSelecter
Head & Shoulders Top Threatens GBPUSD Rally! Bearish Swing Trade🔮 GBPUSD Technical Forecast & Trading Strategy | Week of Sept 6th, 2025 Current Spot Price: 1.35064 | CFD | Date: Sept 6, 2025 🟢 Overall Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH | Primary analysis suggests a potential corrective pullback is imminent. However, the broader bullish trend on higher timeframes remains intact until key support breaks. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown 1. Chart Pattern & Theory Convergence: ⚠️ Potential Head & Shoulders Top (H&S) Formation: On the 4H chart, a developing bearish reversal pattern is visible. The left shoulder, head, and a forming right shoulder suggest a pullback towards the neckline near 1.3420-1.3400 is possible. 📐 Gann Theory & Square of 9: Key Gann resistance was evident near 1.3520-1.3530. The current rejection from this zone adds credibility to the bearish short-term outlook. The next major Gann support level aligns with the H&S target around 1.3400. 🌊 Elliott Wave Theory: Price action from the recent low appears to be completing a 5-wave impulsive move up. We are likely entering a corrective Wave A or B pullback. 🦀 Harmonic Patterns: The rally has approached a potential Bearish Crab or Bat pattern completion zone, where PRZs (Potential Reversal Zones) often coincide with Fibonacci extensions (e.g., 1.618). This reinforces the resistance area. 2. Key Indicator Signals: 📶 RSI (14): On the 4H chart, the RSI is showing a clear bearish divergence 📉. Price made a higher high, but the RSI made a lower high. This is a classic warning sign of weakening bullish momentum. 📏 Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price has kissed the upper band and is pulling back towards the middle band (20 SMA ~1.3460), which will act as immediate support. A break below could target the lower band. ⚖️ VWAP & Anchored VWAP: The price is trading above the daily VWAP, indicating the average buyer is still in profit. However, a break below a key Anchored VWAP (from the last significant low) would signal a shift in medium-term momentum. 📈 Moving Averages: The 50 and 200 EMA's on the 4H are still bullishly aligned, providing dynamic support. A break below the 50 EMA (~1.3470) would be the first sign of bearish acceleration. 3. Critical Support & Resistance: 🎯 Immediate Resistance: 1.3520 - 1.3535 (Gann Level, Previous High) 🎯 Key Resistance: 1.3600 - 1.3650 (Psychological, Swing High) 🛡️ Immediate Support: 1.3470 (50 EMA) 🛡️ Strong Support: 1.3420 - 1.3400 (H&S Neckline, Psychological) 🛡️ Major Support: 1.3350 (200 EMA, Wave 4 base) ⚡ Trading Strategies & Setups A. Intraday Trading (5M - 1H Charts): Strategy: Look for short opportunities on any retest of the 1.3520 resistance area, especially if confirmed by a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Shooting Star) and RSI rejection from overbought (>70) territory. Short Entry (Ideal): ~1.3515 | Stop Loss: 1.3545 | Take Profit 1: 1.3480 | Take Profit 2: 1.3440 Scalp Long: Only on a bounce from the 1.3470 (50 EMA) support with a tight stop. B. Swing Trading (4H - D Charts): Strategy: The confluence of the H&S pattern, RSI divergence, and Gann resistance provides a high-probability swing short setup. Swing Short Entry: On a break below the 1.3470 support or a rejection from 1.3520. | Stop Loss: Above 1.3550 | Target 1: 1.3420 (Neckline) | Target 2: 1.3350 Bullish Invalidation: A decisive break and close above 1.3550 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and open a path to 1.3650. 🌍 Market Context & Risk Factors Geopolitical & Political Events: Monitor any developments related to UK-EU relations, BoE and Fed policy divergence, and global risk sentiment. Volatility is guaranteed around high-impact news events. USD Strength: The forecast is partially contingent on a broader USD recovery. Watch the DXY (Dollar Index) for confirmation. ✅ Key Takeaways: Confluence is Key! Multiple independent theories (Gann, Elliott, Harmonics) are pointing to a resistance zone. Momentum is Waning. The RSI divergence is a critical red flag for bulls 🚩. Respect the Levels. Trade the break of 1.3470 (support) or 1.3550 (resistance). Manage Risk. Always use stop-loss orders. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
by sunya
EURUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy 📊 EURUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy | Week of Sept 6th, 2025 Asset: EURUSD CFD | Spot Price: 1.17208 (as of Sept 6th, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) | Timeframe: Intraday & Swing 🎯 Executive Summary (TL;DR) EURUSD is at a critical 🔄 juncture! Our multi-indicator analysis reveals a market in consolidation following a recent bearish impulse. Key 🎯 harmonic and Gann-based support converges near 1.16800. A break below could trigger a sell-off towards 1.1600, while a hold could spark a bullish correction towards 1.1800. This week is pivotal for direction! ⚔️ 📈 Detailed Technical Breakdown 1. Chart Pattern & Theory Analysis 📉 Elliott Wave Theory: The price action from the August high suggests we are in a corrective wave (likely Wave 4 or a bearish Wave C). The structure is complex, indicating potential exhaustion of the current move. 🦀 Harmonic Patterns: A potential Bullish Bat Pattern 🦇 is completing near the 1.1680-1.1700 zone. This is a key PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) with a high probability of a bullish reversal. 🧮 W.D. Gann Analysis: Applying the Square of 9 and Gann angles, the price is testing a vital support angle. A daily close below 1.1700 would be a strong bearish signal according to Gann time-price theory, opening the path downward. ⛰️ Head and Shoulders: A smaller, intraday Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on the 4H chart. A break below the neckline (approx. 1.1700) would confirm this bearish reversal pattern, projecting a target towards 1.1650. ⚖️ Wyckoff Theory: The chart shows signs of a re-distribution phase. We are watching for a Sign of Weakness (SOW) or a Spring (a false breakdown below support) that could indicate the next major move. 2. Key Support & Resistance Levels 🧱 Immediate Resistance: 1.17500 (Previous Support turned Resistance) 🎯 Strong Resistance: 1.18000 (Psychological Level & 50-Day EMA) 🛡️ Immediate Support: 1.17000 (Psychological & Pattern Confluence) 🎯 Strong Support: 1.16800 (Harmonic & Gann Confluence Zone) 🚨 Major Support: 1.16000 (Weekly Swing Low) 3. Indicator & Momentum Outlook 📶 RSI (14): Currently reading 42 on the 4H chart. This indicates a neutral-to-bearish bias with room to move lower before hitting oversold territory (<30). 📊 Bollinger Bands (20): Price is trading in the lower half of the bands, indicating bearish pressure. A squeeze is evident, suggesting a volatility expansion is imminent. A move towards the middle band (20-SMA) is likely on any bounce. 💹 Moving Averages: The 50-EMA (1.1790) and 200-EMA (1.1755) are both above the current price, confirming the short-term bearish trend. A ** bearish cross** (50-EMA crossing below 200-EMA) is not yet in play but is being watched closely. 🏢 VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): The price is trading below the daily VWAP, indicating that buyers from this period are at a loss—a bearish sentiment. The Anchored VWAP from the last high shows significant selling pressure. ⏰ Trading Strategy & Forecast A) Intraday Trading (5M - 1H Charts) 🎯 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): A break and close below 1.17000 could signal a short opportunity. Target: 1.16800 (initial), then 1.16500. Stop Loss: just above 1.17250. 🔺 Bullish Scenario (Bounce): A hold above 1.17000 with a bullish reversal candlestick (e.g., Hammer, Engulfing) could signal a long scalp. Target: 1.17500 (resistance). Stop Loss: below 1.16850. B) Swing Trading (4H - Daily Charts) 📅 🔄 Outlook: The swing bias remains cautiously bearish until price reclaims the 1.1800 level. Entry (Short) : A retest of 1.1750-1.1780 (failed resistance) could offer a high-probability short entry for a swing down towards 1.1600. Entry (Long): Aggressive bulls could look for long entries near 1.1680 (harmonic/Gann support) with a tight stop below 1.1660, targeting a move back to 1.1800. 🧘 Risk Management: Always use a stop-loss. Risk no more than 1-2% of your account on any single trade. 🌍 Market Context & Final Thoughts Globally, all eyes are on ECB vs. Fed policy divergence 🏦. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed or dovish tones from the ECB could fuel further USD strength, pressuring EURUSD lower. This technical setup aligns with a bearish fundamental backdrop. Conclusion: The 1.1680-1.1700 zone is absolutely critical. 🚨 A break below likely triggers the next leg down. A strong bounce from here could lead to a larger corrective rally. Trade the breakout/breakdown with the confluence of patterns and indicators. ✅ Trade Safe! Remember to always manage your risk.
by sunya
Euro CPI ticks higher, US ISM Mfg. PMI misses estimate, euro lowThe US dollar has posted sharp gains against most of the majors on Tuesday. In the North American session,EUR/USD is trading at 1.1672, down 0.33% on the day. The euro fell as smuch as 0.84% today but has recovered most of those losses after soft US manufacturing data. Eurozone inflation ticked higher in August to 2.1% y/y, up from 2.0% in July. This was just above the market estimate of 2.0%. Services inflation, which has been sticky, eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, was unchanged at 2.3% y/y for a fourth consecutive time, above the market estimate of 2.2%. The core rate remained at its lowest level since October 2021. The calm in inflation means that the European Central Bank is likely to continue to maintain its key deposit rate at 2.0% at the September 11 meeting. Still, the ECB has its doves who favor further rate cuts in order to kick-start the weak eurozone economy. As well, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates this month, which will put pressure on the ECB to also lower rates. The central bank has inflation under control but is also concerned about inflation undershooting the 2% target. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 in August, up from 48.0 in July but below the market estimate of 49.0. Manufacturing has been in the doldrums, with six straight readings below 50, which indicates contraction. There was a rebound in new orders but production and employment showed declines. The weak global economy and the impact of counter-tariffs on US goods continues to dampen manufacturing activity, with little indication that the situation will improve anytime soon. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.1687 and is putting pressure on 1.1662. Next, there is support at 1.1638 There is resistance at 1.1711 and 1.1736
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 29, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the most recent trading session, the Euro showed moderate upward movement. It initially declined to the Mean Support level of 1.160 before starting an effective upward trend. Current analyses indicate that the primary targets for the Euro are the Mean Resistance levels of 1.172 and 1.177, as well as the Key Resistance level of 1.181. Additionally, there is a long-sought-after target to be hit at the Outer Currency Rally target of 1.187. The ongoing price action may result in a notable pullback from these upward targets.
by TradeSelecter
German inflation and US core PCE rise, euro edges lowerThe euro is slightly lower on Friday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1657, down 0.21% on the day. Germany has released the preliminary inflation report for July, with a hotter-than expected reading. Annually, EU-harmonised CPI rose to 2.1%, up from 1.8% in June and above the market estimate of 2.0%. The figure was the highest level since March, driven by higher food prices. Monthly, inflation eased to 0.1%, below the June reading of 0.4% and just above the market estimate of 0%. Headline inflation in Germany, the eurozone's biggest economy, is largely in check but the battle against inflation is not over. Services inflation remained at 3.1% and core CPI was unchanged at 2.7%. Policymakers at the European Central Bank won't be losing sleep over the slight gain in inflation. The eurozone releases July inflation next week, with CPI expected to nudge higher to 2.1% from 2.0% and core CPI to 2.4% from 2.3%. The ECB meets next on September 11 and is expected to maintain its key deposit rate at 2.0%. The US wrapped up the week with the Core PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for underlying inflation. In July, core PCE rose by 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June and in line with the consensus. It was the highest level in five months and a reminder that although inflation is largely under control, the fight is not over. Monthly, core PCE was unchanged at 0.3%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is a candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair next year, gave a hawkish speech on Thursday. Waller said he supported a rate cut in September and hinted at support for larger cuts if the labor market continued to soften.
by OANDA
Euro gains ground, US GDP revised higher, German CPI nextThe euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day. US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell.US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell. The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unemployment claims have been steady and today's release showed that claims dropped to 229 thousand, down from a revised 234 thousand last week and just below the market estimate of 230 thousand. Germany releases CPI report on Friday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for August. This would mark the second flat reading in three months, an indication that inflation is under control. Annually, CPI is expected to nudge up to 2.1% from 2.0%. Eurozone inflation will be released next week. Headline CPI is currently at 2.0% and core CPI is at 2.3%, with little change expected in the August release. The European Central Bank took a pause in July after seven straight rate cuts. The ECB meets on September 11 and with inflation largely contained and around the ECB's 2% target, the Bank is not feeling pressure to continue lowering rates.
by OANDA
EURUSD Breakdown or Double Bottom? Catalysts at Jackson Hole!EURUSD has broken below the key 1.16 support ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising the stakes for both bulls and bears as markets become more aware of the likelihood of a hawkish stance. But will it be the case? Let's see what the possible scenarios are at play. Bearish Catalysts : Hawkish Fed Signals: Recent FOMC minutes and a potential hawkish tone from Chair Powell could push EURUSD lower. Rate cut odds for December have dropped sharply, and further Fed focus on inflation may accelerate downside. Technical Breakdown: The loss of 1.16 opens the door to 1.1530, 1.1460, and possibly 1.14. No clear bullish divergence on RSI suggests more downside risk. Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around the Ukraine ceasefire could weigh further on the euro. Bullish Catalysts : Oversold Conditions: EURUSD is approaching oversold territory, with a potential double bottom forming near 1.1530/1.1460. Dovish Surprise: If Powell signals concerns over the labour market or hints at a pause, a short-covering rally could target 1.16 and above. ECB Commentary: Any unexpected hawkishness from ECB President Lagarde could support the euro. Key Levels to Watch : Support: 1.1530, 1.1460, 1.1400 Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1660 Trading Plan : Volatility is likely post-symposium. Bears may look for breakdowns and rallies to resistance for entries, while bulls might watch for reversal signals at key supports if the Fed surprises dovishly. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
3
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 22, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the most recent trading session, the Euro exhibited considerable volatility, initially declining before embarking on a substantial upward trajectory. Current analyses suggest that the primary targets for the Euro are the Mean Resistance level of 1.177 and the Key Resistance level of 1.181, along with the Outer Currency Rally target of 1.187. The ongoing price action may lead to a consequential pullback to the Mean Support level of 1.166 before the resumption of the upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 15, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the last trading session, the Euro demonstrated a notable increase, retesting the Mean Resistance level of 1.169. Recent analyses suggest that the primary targets for the Euro are the Mean Resistance level of 1.177 and the Key Resistance level of 1.181, in addition to the Outer Currency Rally target of 1.187. Such movements may precipitate a considerable pullback before the upward trajectory resumes.
by TradeSelecter