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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 5, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the most recent trading session, the Euro demonstrated significant upward momentum. Initially, it declined to the Mean Support level of 1.164 before commencing a robust upward trend that culminated in reaching the Mean Resistance level of 1.172. Current analyses indicate that the primary targets for the Euro include the Mean Resistance level of 1.177, as well as the Key Resistance level of 1.181, and a long-anticipated target set at the Outer Currency Rally level of 1.187. The ongoing price action may result in a notable retracement from these upward targets.
by TradeSelecter
Head & Shoulders Top Threatens GBPUSD Rally! Bearish Swing Trade🔮 GBPUSD Technical Forecast & Trading Strategy | Week of Sept 6th, 2025 Current Spot Price: 1.35064 | CFD | Date: Sept 6, 2025 🟢 Overall Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH | Primary analysis suggests a potential corrective pullback is imminent. However, the broader bullish trend on higher timeframes remains intact until key support breaks. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown 1. Chart Pattern & Theory Convergence: ⚠️ Potential Head & Shoulders Top (H&S) Formation: On the 4H chart, a developing bearish reversal pattern is visible. The left shoulder, head, and a forming right shoulder suggest a pullback towards the neckline near 1.3420-1.3400 is possible. 📐 Gann Theory & Square of 9: Key Gann resistance was evident near 1.3520-1.3530. The current rejection from this zone adds credibility to the bearish short-term outlook. The next major Gann support level aligns with the H&S target around 1.3400. 🌊 Elliott Wave Theory: Price action from the recent low appears to be completing a 5-wave impulsive move up. We are likely entering a corrective Wave A or B pullback. 🦀 Harmonic Patterns: The rally has approached a potential Bearish Crab or Bat pattern completion zone, where PRZs (Potential Reversal Zones) often coincide with Fibonacci extensions (e.g., 1.618). This reinforces the resistance area. 2. Key Indicator Signals: 📶 RSI (14): On the 4H chart, the RSI is showing a clear bearish divergence 📉. Price made a higher high, but the RSI made a lower high. This is a classic warning sign of weakening bullish momentum. 📏 Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price has kissed the upper band and is pulling back towards the middle band (20 SMA ~1.3460), which will act as immediate support. A break below could target the lower band. ⚖️ VWAP & Anchored VWAP: The price is trading above the daily VWAP, indicating the average buyer is still in profit. However, a break below a key Anchored VWAP (from the last significant low) would signal a shift in medium-term momentum. 📈 Moving Averages: The 50 and 200 EMA's on the 4H are still bullishly aligned, providing dynamic support. A break below the 50 EMA (~1.3470) would be the first sign of bearish acceleration. 3. Critical Support & Resistance: 🎯 Immediate Resistance: 1.3520 - 1.3535 (Gann Level, Previous High) 🎯 Key Resistance: 1.3600 - 1.3650 (Psychological, Swing High) 🛡️ Immediate Support: 1.3470 (50 EMA) 🛡️ Strong Support: 1.3420 - 1.3400 (H&S Neckline, Psychological) 🛡️ Major Support: 1.3350 (200 EMA, Wave 4 base) ⚡ Trading Strategies & Setups A. Intraday Trading (5M - 1H Charts): Strategy: Look for short opportunities on any retest of the 1.3520 resistance area, especially if confirmed by a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Shooting Star) and RSI rejection from overbought (>70) territory. Short Entry (Ideal): ~1.3515 | Stop Loss: 1.3545 | Take Profit 1: 1.3480 | Take Profit 2: 1.3440 Scalp Long: Only on a bounce from the 1.3470 (50 EMA) support with a tight stop. B. Swing Trading (4H - D Charts): Strategy: The confluence of the H&S pattern, RSI divergence, and Gann resistance provides a high-probability swing short setup. Swing Short Entry: On a break below the 1.3470 support or a rejection from 1.3520. | Stop Loss: Above 1.3550 | Target 1: 1.3420 (Neckline) | Target 2: 1.3350 Bullish Invalidation: A decisive break and close above 1.3550 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and open a path to 1.3650. 🌍 Market Context & Risk Factors Geopolitical & Political Events: Monitor any developments related to UK-EU relations, BoE and Fed policy divergence, and global risk sentiment. Volatility is guaranteed around high-impact news events. USD Strength: The forecast is partially contingent on a broader USD recovery. Watch the DXY (Dollar Index) for confirmation. ✅ Key Takeaways: Confluence is Key! Multiple independent theories (Gann, Elliott, Harmonics) are pointing to a resistance zone. Momentum is Waning. The RSI divergence is a critical red flag for bulls 🚩. Respect the Levels. Trade the break of 1.3470 (support) or 1.3550 (resistance). Manage Risk. Always use stop-loss orders. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
by sunya
EURUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy 📊 EURUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy | Week of Sept 6th, 2025 Asset: EURUSD CFD | Spot Price: 1.17208 (as of Sept 6th, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) | Timeframe: Intraday & Swing 🎯 Executive Summary (TL;DR) EURUSD is at a critical 🔄 juncture! Our multi-indicator analysis reveals a market in consolidation following a recent bearish impulse. Key 🎯 harmonic and Gann-based support converges near 1.16800. A break below could trigger a sell-off towards 1.1600, while a hold could spark a bullish correction towards 1.1800. This week is pivotal for direction! ⚔️ 📈 Detailed Technical Breakdown 1. Chart Pattern & Theory Analysis 📉 Elliott Wave Theory: The price action from the August high suggests we are in a corrective wave (likely Wave 4 or a bearish Wave C). The structure is complex, indicating potential exhaustion of the current move. 🦀 Harmonic Patterns: A potential Bullish Bat Pattern 🦇 is completing near the 1.1680-1.1700 zone. This is a key PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) with a high probability of a bullish reversal. 🧮 W.D. Gann Analysis: Applying the Square of 9 and Gann angles, the price is testing a vital support angle. A daily close below 1.1700 would be a strong bearish signal according to Gann time-price theory, opening the path downward. ⛰️ Head and Shoulders: A smaller, intraday Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on the 4H chart. A break below the neckline (approx. 1.1700) would confirm this bearish reversal pattern, projecting a target towards 1.1650. ⚖️ Wyckoff Theory: The chart shows signs of a re-distribution phase. We are watching for a Sign of Weakness (SOW) or a Spring (a false breakdown below support) that could indicate the next major move. 2. Key Support & Resistance Levels 🧱 Immediate Resistance: 1.17500 (Previous Support turned Resistance) 🎯 Strong Resistance: 1.18000 (Psychological Level & 50-Day EMA) 🛡️ Immediate Support: 1.17000 (Psychological & Pattern Confluence) 🎯 Strong Support: 1.16800 (Harmonic & Gann Confluence Zone) 🚨 Major Support: 1.16000 (Weekly Swing Low) 3. Indicator & Momentum Outlook 📶 RSI (14): Currently reading 42 on the 4H chart. This indicates a neutral-to-bearish bias with room to move lower before hitting oversold territory (<30). 📊 Bollinger Bands (20): Price is trading in the lower half of the bands, indicating bearish pressure. A squeeze is evident, suggesting a volatility expansion is imminent. A move towards the middle band (20-SMA) is likely on any bounce. 💹 Moving Averages: The 50-EMA (1.1790) and 200-EMA (1.1755) are both above the current price, confirming the short-term bearish trend. A ** bearish cross** (50-EMA crossing below 200-EMA) is not yet in play but is being watched closely. 🏢 VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): The price is trading below the daily VWAP, indicating that buyers from this period are at a loss—a bearish sentiment. The Anchored VWAP from the last high shows significant selling pressure. ⏰ Trading Strategy & Forecast A) Intraday Trading (5M - 1H Charts) 🎯 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): A break and close below 1.17000 could signal a short opportunity. Target: 1.16800 (initial), then 1.16500. Stop Loss: just above 1.17250. 🔺 Bullish Scenario (Bounce): A hold above 1.17000 with a bullish reversal candlestick (e.g., Hammer, Engulfing) could signal a long scalp. Target: 1.17500 (resistance). Stop Loss: below 1.16850. B) Swing Trading (4H - Daily Charts) 📅 🔄 Outlook: The swing bias remains cautiously bearish until price reclaims the 1.1800 level. Entry (Short) : A retest of 1.1750-1.1780 (failed resistance) could offer a high-probability short entry for a swing down towards 1.1600. Entry (Long): Aggressive bulls could look for long entries near 1.1680 (harmonic/Gann support) with a tight stop below 1.1660, targeting a move back to 1.1800. 🧘 Risk Management: Always use a stop-loss. Risk no more than 1-2% of your account on any single trade. 🌍 Market Context & Final Thoughts Globally, all eyes are on ECB vs. Fed policy divergence 🏦. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed or dovish tones from the ECB could fuel further USD strength, pressuring EURUSD lower. This technical setup aligns with a bearish fundamental backdrop. Conclusion: The 1.1680-1.1700 zone is absolutely critical. 🚨 A break below likely triggers the next leg down. A strong bounce from here could lead to a larger corrective rally. Trade the breakout/breakdown with the confluence of patterns and indicators. ✅ Trade Safe! Remember to always manage your risk.
by sunya
Euro CPI ticks higher, US ISM Mfg. PMI misses estimate, euro lowThe US dollar has posted sharp gains against most of the majors on Tuesday. In the North American session,EUR/USD is trading at 1.1672, down 0.33% on the day. The euro fell as smuch as 0.84% today but has recovered most of those losses after soft US manufacturing data. Eurozone inflation ticked higher in August to 2.1% y/y, up from 2.0% in July. This was just above the market estimate of 2.0%. Services inflation, which has been sticky, eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, was unchanged at 2.3% y/y for a fourth consecutive time, above the market estimate of 2.2%. The core rate remained at its lowest level since October 2021. The calm in inflation means that the European Central Bank is likely to continue to maintain its key deposit rate at 2.0% at the September 11 meeting. Still, the ECB has its doves who favor further rate cuts in order to kick-start the weak eurozone economy. As well, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates this month, which will put pressure on the ECB to also lower rates. The central bank has inflation under control but is also concerned about inflation undershooting the 2% target. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 in August, up from 48.0 in July but below the market estimate of 49.0. Manufacturing has been in the doldrums, with six straight readings below 50, which indicates contraction. There was a rebound in new orders but production and employment showed declines. The weak global economy and the impact of counter-tariffs on US goods continues to dampen manufacturing activity, with little indication that the situation will improve anytime soon. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.1687 and is putting pressure on 1.1662. Next, there is support at 1.1638 There is resistance at 1.1711 and 1.1736
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 29, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the most recent trading session, the Euro showed moderate upward movement. It initially declined to the Mean Support level of 1.160 before starting an effective upward trend. Current analyses indicate that the primary targets for the Euro are the Mean Resistance levels of 1.172 and 1.177, as well as the Key Resistance level of 1.181. Additionally, there is a long-sought-after target to be hit at the Outer Currency Rally target of 1.187. The ongoing price action may result in a notable pullback from these upward targets.
by TradeSelecter
German inflation and US core PCE rise, euro edges lowerThe euro is slightly lower on Friday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1657, down 0.21% on the day. Germany has released the preliminary inflation report for July, with a hotter-than expected reading. Annually, EU-harmonised CPI rose to 2.1%, up from 1.8% in June and above the market estimate of 2.0%. The figure was the highest level since March, driven by higher food prices. Monthly, inflation eased to 0.1%, below the June reading of 0.4% and just above the market estimate of 0%. Headline inflation in Germany, the eurozone's biggest economy, is largely in check but the battle against inflation is not over. Services inflation remained at 3.1% and core CPI was unchanged at 2.7%. Policymakers at the European Central Bank won't be losing sleep over the slight gain in inflation. The eurozone releases July inflation next week, with CPI expected to nudge higher to 2.1% from 2.0% and core CPI to 2.4% from 2.3%. The ECB meets next on September 11 and is expected to maintain its key deposit rate at 2.0%. The US wrapped up the week with the Core PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for underlying inflation. In July, core PCE rose by 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June and in line with the consensus. It was the highest level in five months and a reminder that although inflation is largely under control, the fight is not over. Monthly, core PCE was unchanged at 0.3%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is a candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair next year, gave a hawkish speech on Thursday. Waller said he supported a rate cut in September and hinted at support for larger cuts if the labor market continued to soften.
by OANDA
Euro gains ground, US GDP revised higher, German CPI nextThe euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day. US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell.US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell. The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unemployment claims have been steady and today's release showed that claims dropped to 229 thousand, down from a revised 234 thousand last week and just below the market estimate of 230 thousand. Germany releases CPI report on Friday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for August. This would mark the second flat reading in three months, an indication that inflation is under control. Annually, CPI is expected to nudge up to 2.1% from 2.0%. Eurozone inflation will be released next week. Headline CPI is currently at 2.0% and core CPI is at 2.3%, with little change expected in the August release. The European Central Bank took a pause in July after seven straight rate cuts. The ECB meets on September 11 and with inflation largely contained and around the ECB's 2% target, the Bank is not feeling pressure to continue lowering rates.
by OANDA
EURUSD Breakdown or Double Bottom? Catalysts at Jackson Hole!EURUSD has broken below the key 1.16 support ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising the stakes for both bulls and bears as markets become more aware of the likelihood of a hawkish stance. But will it be the case? Let's see what the possible scenarios are at play. Bearish Catalysts : Hawkish Fed Signals: Recent FOMC minutes and a potential hawkish tone from Chair Powell could push EURUSD lower. Rate cut odds for December have dropped sharply, and further Fed focus on inflation may accelerate downside. Technical Breakdown: The loss of 1.16 opens the door to 1.1530, 1.1460, and possibly 1.14. No clear bullish divergence on RSI suggests more downside risk. Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around the Ukraine ceasefire could weigh further on the euro. Bullish Catalysts : Oversold Conditions: EURUSD is approaching oversold territory, with a potential double bottom forming near 1.1530/1.1460. Dovish Surprise: If Powell signals concerns over the labour market or hints at a pause, a short-covering rally could target 1.16 and above. ECB Commentary: Any unexpected hawkishness from ECB President Lagarde could support the euro. Key Levels to Watch : Support: 1.1530, 1.1460, 1.1400 Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1660 Trading Plan : Volatility is likely post-symposium. Bears may look for breakdowns and rallies to resistance for entries, while bulls might watch for reversal signals at key supports if the Fed surprises dovishly. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
3
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 22, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the most recent trading session, the Euro exhibited considerable volatility, initially declining before embarking on a substantial upward trajectory. Current analyses suggest that the primary targets for the Euro are the Mean Resistance level of 1.177 and the Key Resistance level of 1.181, along with the Outer Currency Rally target of 1.187. The ongoing price action may lead to a consequential pullback to the Mean Support level of 1.166 before the resumption of the upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 15, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the last trading session, the Euro demonstrated a notable increase, retesting the Mean Resistance level of 1.169. Recent analyses suggest that the primary targets for the Euro are the Mean Resistance level of 1.177 and the Key Resistance level of 1.181, in addition to the Outer Currency Rally target of 1.187. Such movements may precipitate a considerable pullback before the upward trajectory resumes.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 8, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the Euro has exhibited notable volatility, marked by both a significant increase and subsequent decrease in value. Presently, it is approaching the Mean Support level of 1.157. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is poised for a dead-cat bounce, potentially reaching the Mean Support level of 1.157, and revisiting the target set at the Mean Resistance of 1.169. Additionally, it is essential to assess the likelihood of continued upward momentum towards the Mean Resistance level of 1.177 and the Key Resistance level of 1.181. Such movements could instigate a substantial rebound and contribute to achieving the Outer Currency Rally target of 1.187.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 1, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's trading session, the Euro experienced a significant drop, reaching the 1.139 level, and completing what is referred to as the Inner Currency Dip. As a result of the completion, the currency reversed direction and made a strong rebound, hitting the Mean Resistance level at 1.160. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is likely to enter a sustained downward move after retesting the Mean Resistance at 1.160, with the target set to revisit the completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.139. However, it is essential to consider the possibility of continued upward momentum towards the Mean Resistance level of 1.177. Such a movement could trigger a significant rebound and lead to the completion of the Outer Currency Rally at 1.187.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD: The Last Bear Standing...As indicated on my previous EUR/USD idea ( that's still currently open ), I remain short EUR/USD given the technical aspect of things are still valid. Divergences are still in play along with a rising broadening pattern and the fact that we're trading at the yearly R3 level ( which is rare ). I suspect we will have some volatility with the ECB press conference tomorrow, so that should get things moving hopefully in the bearish direction. If we begin trading aggressively above 1.1800+, that will invalidate the short idea overall. If we roll over, I'm still looking for 1.13000 - 1.12000 as the target range for Q3 going into Q4. We'll see how this all develops. As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe!
Short
by InternalTraderNYC
8
EUR/CAD: Shorting the Climactic Rally Near 1.6000The strong rally in EUR/CAD has pushed the pair into extreme territory, approaching a major psychological and structural resistance zone. While momentum has been strong, this looks like a potential climactic or "blow-off" top, offering a highly favorable risk/reward opportunity to short the pair in alignment with the weak underlying Euro fundamentals. The Fundamental Why 📰 The core thesis remains bearish for the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a distinctly dovish tone, signaling a willingness to ease policy further to support a slowing Eurozone economy. This fundamental headwind suggests that extreme rallies in Euro pairs are often exhaustive and present prime shorting opportunities. The Technical Picture 📊 Major Supply Zone: The price is entering a critical multi-month supply zone between 1.5950 and the key psychological level of 1.6000. This is a major ceiling where significant selling pressure is anticipated. Fibonacci Extension: This area aligns with a key Fibonacci extension level (1.272) from the last major impulse wave, a common zone where trending moves become exhausted and reversals begin. Pronounced RSI Divergence: A clear bearish divergence is forming on the daily chart. As price makes this final push to a new high, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making a significantly lower high, signaling a deep exhaustion of buying momentum. The Counter-Trade Rationale 🧠 This is a high-level fade. We are positioning for a reversal at a major, technically significant ceiling. The extreme price extension, combined with clear momentum divergence, indicates that the risk of buying at these highs is substantial. By shorting here, we are betting that the powerful technical resistance and weak fundamentals will trigger a significant correction. The Setup ✅ 📉 Pair: EUR/CAD 👉 Direction: Short ⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.63230 🎯 Entry: 1.59490 ✅ Take Profit: 1.52008 ⚖️ Risk/Reward: ≈ 2:1
Short
by MaxellAguiran
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 25, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the previous week's trading session, the Euro experienced an increase following the completion of the Inner Currency Dip at the 1.156 level. It subsequently surpassed two significant Mean Resistance levels, namely 1.167 and 1.172; however, it reversed direction by the conclusion of the trading week. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro is likely to undergo a sustained downward trend, with a projected target set at the Mean Support level of 1.169 and a potential further decline to retest the previously completed Currency Dip at 1.156. Nonetheless, it remains essential to consider the possibility of renewed upward momentum towards the Mean Resistance level of 1.177, which could initiate a preeminent rebound and facilitate the completion of the critical Outer Currency Rally at 1.187.
by TradeSelecter
ECB holds rates as expected, Euro steadyThe euro is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1763, down 0.03% on the day. Earlier, the euro climbed to a high of 1.1788, its highest level since July 7. The European Central Bank's decision to maintain the key deposit rate at 2.0% was significant but not a surprise. With the hold, the ECB ended a streak of lowering rates at seven consecutive meetings. The ECB has been aggressive, chopping 250 basis points in just over a year. The ECB statement said that inflation was falling in line with the Bank's forecasts and that future rate decisions would be data dependent. President Lagarde has said that the easing cycle is almost down, but the markets are expecting at least one more rate cut before the end of the year. The European Union and the United States are locked in negotiations over tariffs, with hopes that an agreement can be reached, on the heels of the US-Japan deal earlier this week. US President Trump has threatened to hit the EU with 30% tariffs if a deal is not made by August 1, but there are signals that the sides will agree to 15% tariffs on European imports, as was the case in the US-Japan agreement. If an agreement is reached, it will greatly reduce the uncertainty around tariffs and will make it easier for the ECB to lower rates and make more accurate forecasts for inflation and growth. In the US, Services PMI rose to 55.2 in July, up from 52.9 in June and above the market estimate of 53.0. This pointed to strong expansion and marked the fastest pace of growth in seven months. Manufacturing headed the opposite direction, falling from 52.6 in June, a 37-month high, to 49.5. This was the first contraction since December, with new orders and employment falling.
by OANDA
EURUSD LONG AND EDUCATIONAL BREAKDOWN ECB INTRESTRATE RELEASE The European Central Bank is expected to hold key rates for the first time in over a year on Thursday. The Eurozone inflation rate has hit the ECB’s 2% target as the US-EU trade deal uncertainty lingers. The EUR/USD pair could experience intense volatility following the ECB policy announcements. The European Central Bank (ECB) is on track to leave its key interest rates unchanged after its July policy meeting, after having reduced rates at each of its last seven meetings. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. The interest rate decision will be followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 12:45 GMT.
Long
by afri-tradesource
EUR/GBP: Bullish Stance Above 0.8640This signal outlines a tactical long entry on EUR/GBP, positioning for a bullish resolution from today's major fundamental events. 📰 Fundamental Thesis This position is taken ahead of the two primary market movers: the ECB rate decision and the UK PMI data. The core thesis is that the ECB policy statement will be the dominant catalyst, providing strength to EUR that will outweigh the impact of the UK data release. 📊 Technical Thesis The trade is defined by a sound technical structure. The stop loss is anchored beneath the critical support zone at 0.8640. The profit target is set to challenge the resistance area just above 0.8722. This setup offers a favorable and clearly defined risk-to-reward profile. 🧠 Risk Management Execution is timed before extreme event-driven volatility. Adherence to the stop loss is critical to manage the inherent risk of this pre-news strategy. Trade Parameters ⬆️ Direction: Long (Buy) ➡️ Entry: 0.86690 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.86344 🎯 Target: 0.87382 ✅ Risk/Reward: 1:2
Long
by MaxellAguiran
1
EUR/USD About to Trap the Bears? Final Push Before the Drop! EUR/USD is showing a solid short-term bullish structure, with a move initiated from the demand base around 1.1560, fueling a strong rally toward the current level near 1.1770. Price is now approaching a significant supply zone between 1.1790 and 1.1875, previously responsible for the last major bearish swing. This area also aligns with projected Fibonacci levels (25%-100%), reinforcing its relevance as a possible inflection point. This movement suggests there’s still room for price to push higher, likely completing the final leg of this bullish cycle before a more convincing short setup develops. At this stage, Fibonacci levels are not acting as firm supports, but rather as hypothetical pullback projections: once price enters the 1.1800–1.1875 area, it will be key to monitor for signs of exhaustion. A rejection here may initiate a bearish retracement toward 1.1670–1.1650, in line with the 62–70.5% fib levels. Retail sentiment remains highly contrarian: 76% of traders are short, positioning themselves too early against the trend. This imbalance adds fuel for a potential continuation higher, as the market may seek to "squeeze" these premature shorts. Additionally, the COT report confirms growing institutional interest in the euro, with non-commercials increasing their net longs, while USD net long exposure continues to shrink. Seasonality adds further confluence: late July is historically bullish for EUR/USD, suggesting one final leg up could materialize before a typically weaker August. ✅ Trading Outlook EUR/USD is technically aligned for a final push toward the 1.1800–1.1875 premium zone, where a potential short opportunity may arise. The rally is currently driven by overextended retail shorts and supportive institutional flows. Only after price interacts with the upper supply zone should reversal signs be evaluated, with correction targets around 1.1670–1.1650. The ideal play: wait for confirmation of bearish intent in August, when seasonal weakness typically kicks in.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
Bitcoin Bullish Momentum, Swing Setups on Support Pre-ECB__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong bullish momentum confirmed on all timeframes >1H; structure Up. Major supports: 105100, 111980, 115736; main resistance: 122318 (ATH). Volumes normal at all timeframes except 30min (very high at lows, institutional absorption). No behavioral anomaly signals (ISPD DIV neutral, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = "STRONG BUY" everywhere except 15m/30m). Multi-timeframe alignment, only 15m/30m in minor divergence (Down, no structural impact). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish swing/mid-term bias confirmed: Optimal opportunities on pullbacks 117900–116467. Risk/stop zone: below 115736 USDT (key multi-frame pivot). Catalysts: ECB (24/07, volatility expected); strict monitoring post-announcement. Plan: swing entries on pullback, strict risk management, reduce exposure before macro events. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ Daily (1D) : Consolidation after ATH, strong supports (105100, 111980). Strong momentum, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator at "STRONG BUY," ISPD neutral. Normal volumes. 12H/6H : Price oscillating near upper pivots (115736, 116467). Buyers in control. "STRONG BUY" generalized. 4H/2H : Range 116467–119676, Up momentum. Swing setups/favorable to buyers on weakness. 1H : Full confirmation of the bullish bias. 116.5–117K area = key support for scalp/swing. 30min/15min : Minor short-term bearish divergence, increasing volumes, no structural warning. Possible scalping on bullish reaction 117800–116467. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = "STRONG BUY" on all timeframes (>1H). Only micro-risk: "Down" divergence on 15/30min, to be watched. Main risk: $130K area (Glassnode major statistical resistance), possible capitulation below 115736 (swing invalidation). Targets: 122–130k. Macro: Reduce exposure before 24/07 (ECB), adjust stops if extreme volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental & On-Chain Summary (Glassnode, July 22, 2025) __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC in price discovery, all holder cohorts in profit (>95% STH). Profit-taking rising but no climax detected; market is "breathing". Major support: $110K; major resistance: $130K. Attractive risk/reward outside euphoria zones. Stop advised <115736. No immediate disruptive macro catalyst. Watch for volatility spikes at ECB decision (24/07). __________________________________________________________________________________ Actionable Synthesis & Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ "Swing long" favored on pullback 117900–116467 / stop below 115736. Scalping weaknesses 117800–116467 on bullish reaction, monitor post-ECB confirmation. Reduce leverage/exposure ahead of ECB. R/R ratio >2 on bullish swing scenario; strict stop-loss. Robust bullish context, valid technical structure. Active approach required short term: seize pullbacks, protect stops, adjust post macro-news.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
EURUSD: the ECB weekThe focus of the previous week was on US inflation figures. Posted data showed relatively stable figures for June, as inflation was standing at 0,3% for the month and 2,7% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market expectations. Core inflation remained elevated and reached 0,2% for June and 2,9% y/y. At the same time, core inflation was by 0,1pp lower from market forecasts. The Producers Price Index in June was standing at 0%, same as core PPI. Compared to the year before, PPI was increased by 2,3%, while core PPI was higher by 2,6%. Retail sales in June were higher by 0,6%, and were better from market estimates of 0,1%. Building permits preliminary for June reached 1,397M and housing starts were standing at 1,321M in line with market expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for June was at the level of 61,8 in line with forecasts. Five year inflation expectations cooled a bit to 3,6%, from previous 4%. This year inflation expectations also eased to 4,4% from previous 5%. The Industrial Production in the Euro Zone in May was higher by 1,7% for the month, bringing the indicator to the level of 3,7% on a yearly basis. Both figures were much higher from market forecasts of 0,9% for the month and 2,4% for the year. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in July for Germany reached the level of 52,7 a bit higher from forecasted. The final CPI in the Euro Zone in June was 2,3% y/y and core CPI at 2,3%, without change from the previous estimates. For the second week in a row markets favored the US Dollar, which strengthened to the level of 1,1570 against euro. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,1626. The RSI continues to move around the level of 50 and is still not ready for a move toward the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a potential change in course in a near term period. With a move toward the 1,1560, the eurusd tested the short term support line. At this level, the currency pair peaked in April this year. Charts are pointing to a potential for the short term reversal in the coming period. In this sense, levels modestly above the 1,17 resistance could be shortly tested. On the opposite side, 1,1560 might be tested for one more time at the start of the week, before the move toward upside. It should be considered that the ECB meeting will be held in a week ahead, where ECB members will draw the interest rate decision. A pause in rate cuts is overwhelmingly expected by market participants. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: GfK Consumer Confidence in august in Germany, HCOB manufacturing PMI flash for July for both Germany and Euro Zone, ECB meeting and interest rate decision will be held on Thursday, July 24th, Ifo Business Climate in July in Germany, USD: Existing Home Sales in June, Durable Goods Orders in June.
by XBTFX