Trend Doesn’t Cancel Corrections (And the Herd Always Pays)Yesterday, I made a call that sounded “wrong” to most retail traders.
✅ Silver will fill the gap.
✅ Gold will drop into the 4750 zone.
Both happened.
Not because I’m a prophet.
But because markets don’t work like retail emotions want them to work.
Even in a strong bullish trend, corrections are not a surprise — they’re a requirement.
And the trader who understands that simple fact will outperform the trader who only understands “up or down”.
1) A Trend Is Not a Straight Line — It’s a Negotiation
Retail traders love clean narratives:
- “Gold is bullish, so it must go up.”
- “Silver is strong, so dips are impossible.”
- “If news is positive, price must pump.”
But a real trend is not a straight line.
A trend is a sequence of impulses and corrections.
And every correction exists for a purpose:
- to rebalance positioning
- to shake out weak hands
- to refill liquidity
- to reset the market’s ability to continue
In other words:
Corrections are not “against the trend.”
They are the trend’s fuel.
If you’re only prepared for continuation, you’re not trading a trend…
You’re worshipping it.
2) The Herd Always Thinks in One Direction (Because It Feels Safe)
Here’s one of the most dangerous illusions in trading:
When everyone agrees, it feels like certainty.
But in markets, mass agreement usually means something else: the trade is already crowded.
That’s when you start seeing the same comments everywhere:
- “Gold only goes up 🚀”
- “This is the breakout!”
- “Buy every dip!”
- “No more pullbacks, strong fundamentals!”
And that’s exactly the moment you should pause.
Not because the crowd is always wrong…
…but because when everyone is positioned the same way, the market has a problem:
✅ too many stops in one place
✅ too many emotions in one direction
✅ too little liquidity for continuation
✅ too many people chasing the “obvious move”
That’s where the correction becomes not only likely… but necessary.
3) Even If You Don’t Fade the Herd… At Least Don’t Join It Late
Let’s be clear:
You don’t need to be the hero who always sells the top or buys the bottom.
Sometimes the highest-IQ decision is simply: Stay out.
Because most traders don’t lose money by being wrong…
They lose money by being late.
They enter after:
- the breakout is old news
- the move is extended
- the risk is huge
- the stop placement is obvious
- the crowd is fully committed
So the market does what markets always do: it punishes certainty.
That’s how bullish trends still produce brutal red candles.
Not because the trend is broken…
…but because positioning needs to be cleaned.
4) The Market Isn’t “Against You” — It’s Against Predictability
Retail wants predictability.
Smart money wants liquidity.
And retail provides liquidity in the most predictable way possible:
- buying after too many green candles
- selling after too many red candles
- placing stops in obvious locations
- reacting emotionally to headlines
This is why the “herd trade” is so profitable for the other side.
Not because smart money is magical.
But because retail behavior is repetitive.
And anything repetitive becomes exploitable.
5) “Trading Is Zero-Sum” — So Ask the One Question That Matters
Here is the part most traders avoid because it kills their fantasy: Trading is a zero-sum game (especially in leveraged derivatives).
Meaning: If you win, someone else loses.
Now ask yourself: If all retail is bullish… who is left to buy?
And more importantly: If everyone is bullish, who is the liquidity?
Because it’s never “smart money”.
Smart money isn’t the one buying the last breakout candle at maximum risk.
Retail is.
So if all retail is bullish and fully committed… then the real question becomes:
✅ who is trapped?
✅ who owns their stops?
✅ who will panic first?
And once you think this way, the market becomes clearer.
Not easier.
But clearer.
The Real Lesson: Trends Are Easy — Positioning Is Hard
Anyone can say:
“Gold is bullish.”
That’s not analysis.
That’s a weather report.
The real skill is knowing when:
- the bullish trend needs a correction
- the “obvious continuation” becomes the trap
- the herd has overloaded one side
- patience becomes the edge
Because the market rewards:
✅ timing
✅ discipline
✅ structure
✅ emotional neutrality
Not crowd confidence.
Final Thought
When you see everyone on the same side… don’t blindly fight them.
But most of all, don’t blindly join them.
Do the professional thing: pause, reassess, and respect the correction inside the trend.
Because in the end…
Smart money doesn’t need to outsmart everyone.
It only needs retail to behave like retail.
And retail never disappoints.
✅ Stay sharp.
✅ Stay patient.
✅ Stay out when it’s crowded.
That alone puts you ahead of 90% of traders.
Best Of Luck!
Mihai Iacob
