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Elliotwaveanalysis

UNH: adding into fear after a completed ABC correctionThesis NYSE:UNH has completed its corrective ABC structure and is stabilizing within Wave 2, offering long-term accumulation opportunities in a proven cash-flow compounder. Context - Daily and weekly timeframes - Deep corrective phase already completed - Long-term uptrend remains intact on the weekly chart - Dividend-paying, high free-cash-flow defensive name What I see - Yesterday’s selloff was headline-driven, not structural - Price is holding inside the Wave 2 retracement zone - Volatility is shaking out weak hands, not breaking structure - This behavior is typical at the end of corrective phases - I added to my long-term position yesterday, bringing my average into the $270s What matters now - The priority is stabilization and base-building - A reclaim of the 50-day MA improves short-term structure - Reclaiming the 200-day MA confirms the next impulsive leg - Gap-filling narratives are noise, not a strategy Buy / Accumulation zone - Accumulation remains valid inside the current Wave 2 range - I have no issue adding again once price stabilizes - Risk is defined against the recent correction lows Targets - First major structural reference: 200-week MA near $460 - Wave 3 target remains the 1.618 Fib extension around $540 - Dividend yield (~2.6%) pays while waiting Execution note - This game isn’t for everyone — pressure exposes conviction - I added at $250 and $240 when sentiment was darkest - Buffett added at higher prices, yet fear returned instantly - NYSE:UNH is my current safe-haven: strong FCF, cash-rich, defensive This is a 3–5 year hold for me, not a short-term trade
NYSE:UNHLong
by maratteo
1
JD: Final Wave 2 consolidation (patience before the breakout)Thesis NASDAQ:JD is still compressing in the final stages of Wave 2, and the longer this base builds, the stronger the breakout typically becomes. Context - Weekly timeframe - Multi-year downtrend transitioned into a base - Compression phase continues while peers already broke out (BABA, BIDU) - 2026 remains the window for JD to catch up What I see - Standard late-stage consolidation behavior for a Wave 2 structure - Volatility keeps compressing inside the wedge - Support is still holding, while resistance is still capping price - Nothing “broken” here — just time passing and pressure building What matters now - We need patience until the weekly breakout and hold above wedge resistance - Until that happens, this is still a compression structure, not the breakout itself - The longer this range holds, the better the breakout odds and follow-through Buy / Accumulation zone - Wedge floor / support zone remains the area of interest - Risk stays clean as long as support holds Targets - Wave 3 target remains: 1.618 Fib at ~$71 - Higher extensions come later once Wave 3 plays out and Wave 4 support is confirmed Risk / Invalidation -Loss of the wedge floor support would delay the bullish catch-up thesis
NASDAQ:JDLong
by maratteo
EUR/JPY: Wave 5 Completed, ABC Correction AheadEUR/JPY has completed a strong bullish impulsive move, finishing a full five-wave Elliott Wave structure to the upside. The recent highs suggest that Wave 5 is likely complete, which often signals the end of a trend phase. After such a move, the market usually shifts into a corrective phase, and the chart shows the start of an A-B-C correction. Price is expected to move lower first into Wave (A), followed by a bounce in Wave (B), and then another decline in Wave (C). As long as price remains below the recent high near 186.9, the bias is short-term bearish, with downside targets around the 179–176 zone. This pullback would be a normal and healthy correction after a long rally, not a trend reversal yet. Targets Wave (A) target: 179.5 – 178.0 Wave (C) target (if correction extends): 176.0 area Stop-Loss Above recent high: 186.90 Invalidation Level Daily close above 186.90 Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
Short
by Money_Dictators
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to resistance area 1.19348.Colleagues, the price has actively updated the maximum of wave “1” of the higher order, which means that wave “3” of the middle order continues to develop. At the moment, we are seeing a gap in the 1.18373 area, which means that wave “4” will close this gap, after which I expect the upward movement to continue to the resistance area of 1.19348, which is about 100 pips. It is quite possible that wave “3” will renew its maximum, and we will see wave “4” a little later. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
9
Hellena | Oil (4H): LONG to resistance area 62.545.Colleagues, after a strong upward movement, I decided to observe the price and understand what is happening. Now I believe that this movement resembles the beginning of an “ABC” correction, which means that the higher-order wave “A” ended at 54.956. This means that we can expect the upward movement to continue at least to the resistance area of 62.545. A correction to the support area of 58.890 is possible. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Hellena_Trade
19
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Setup Points to Further UpsideOn the EUR/USD 4-hour chart, the market first completed a normal ABC correction and then started a strong move upward, which shows that the trend has turned bullish. Price respected the key support level around 1.1655 and bounced strongly from it, proving that buyers are in control. The sharp and fast rise looks like a Wave 3, which is usually the strongest part of an uptrend. After this strong move, the market may take a small pullback (Wave 4), but as long as price stays above 1.1655, the bullish structure remains valid. After the pullback, the final push higher (Wave 5) can take price toward the 1.1950–1.2000 area. Overall, the bias remains bullish, and buying on pullbacks is safer than chasing price at the top. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
by Money_Dictators
GBP/AUD: Corrective Rally, Downtrend IntactGBP/AUD is trading in a clear bearish Elliott Wave structure on the 4H timeframe. The market has already completed a strong impulsive decline and is currently moving in a Wave 4 corrective pullback, which is happening inside a downward channel and near key Fibonacci retracement levels. This correction looks weak and corrective, suggesting sellers are still in control. As long as price remains below the invalidation level around 2.0050 , the bearish bias stays valid. The expectation is for the correction to finish soon, followed by Wave 5 to the downside, targeting the lower channel area and the 1.96–1.95 zone. Overall, the trend remains bearish, and any short-term bounce is likely a selling opportunity before the next leg lower. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
by Money_Dictators
USD/CHF Approaching Breakdown from RangeUSD/CHF is moving in a sideways corrective pattern, not a strong trend. The price is forming an A-B-C-D-E structure, which usually happens before the market makes a bigger move. Right now, price is in the last part of this pattern (wave E) and is sitting near a resistance area, where it has failed to move higher and has started to turn down. This behavior often means sellers are becoming stronger. As long as the price stays below 0.795–0.798 , the outlook remains bearish, and the market is expected to move lower toward the 0.782–0.775 support area. If this move happens, it would complete the corrective pattern after a short pause, and then the market can decide its next big direction. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
Short
by Money_Dictators
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to 50% Fibo 4933.Colleagues, the price continues its upward movement in wave “5” of the higher order (red wave), and a major correction is already quite close, but we need to understand where the upward momentum will end. I believe that the price will renew its maximum and rise to the 50% Fibonacci extension level to the 4933 area, which will mark the end of the middle wave “5” and the higher wave “5”. It is possible that wave “4” will be renewed, but I do not believe that the correction will be deep. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
61
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to resistance area 1.17666.Dear colleagues, The upward movement is confirmed, the red wave “3” is just beginning to develop, and I think that the medium-term wave ‘2’ is completing its correction and we will soon see a continuation of the upward movement in the medium wave “3”. I think it is worth paying attention to the maximum of wave “1” at 1.17666, as this is the first area of resistance that is worth paying attention to and should be overcome in the near future. For greater confidence and to reduce risks, you can look for an entry into a long position in the support area at 1.16595. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
16
GBP/USD Maintains Bullish Structure for Wave (3) GBP/USD is showing a bullish Elliott Wave structure, where the market has completed Wave (2) through a corrective A-B-C move and is now preparing for the next impulsive leg higher. Price is holding above the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci support zone, which is a common area for Wave (2) to finish. As long as this support holds, the bias remains bullish, and the next expected move is the start of Wave (3), which typically brings strong upside momentum. A break below the recent corrective low would invalidate this view, but above support, GBP/USD is likely to move higher toward new highs. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
Long
by Money_Dictators
BABA – Breakout Follow-Through | Wave 5 In ProgressContext - Weekly and daily timeframes - Multi-year base already completed - Prior impulsive advance followed by a controlled Wave 4 retracement - Breakout confirmed last week What I see - Wave 4 pullback resolved cleanly - Breakout last week confirmed the end of the corrective phase - Price has advanced +20% from the breakout area in the last two weeks - Momentum accelerated after price rejected a pullback toward the breakout zone - Yesterday’s near +4% close and strong pre-market action signal continued demand - Structure is now consistent with an active Wave 5 advance What matters now - The 50-day MA and former breakout area near $156 should now act as support - Holding above this level keeps the impulsive structure intact - Next resistance sits at the prior Wave 3 high around $192 - A clean break above $192 confirms Wave 4 completion beyond doubt Buy / Accumulation zone - Initial breakout already played - Ideal adds come only on controlled pullbacks toward support - Risk remains clearly defined against the recent higher low Targets - Wave 5 target remains the $230 area - This level aligns with the next major upside reference within the broader reversal Portfolio note - NYSE:BABA currently represents ~3% of my portfolio - Comfortable holding this position into 2026 - Acts as a solid diversification hedge versus the US market
NYSE:BABALong
by maratteo
BIDU – Wave 3 Progress UpdateThesis NASDAQ:BIDU continues to advance within a developing Wave 3 structure after completing a multi-year corrective phase and confirming a major breakout. Context - Weekly timeframe - Prolonged correction from 2021 into mid-2025 - Transition completed: downtrend → base → breakout What I see - BIDU stood out this week despite a weak and volatile broader market - Higher high printed at the start of the week, followed by another +5% push today - Breakout remains clean, with price holding above former channel resistance - Acceptance above long-term trend support confirms impulsive behavior - Structure remains consistent with an advancing Wave 3 What matters now - Holding above the $155 breakout area is key - A successful hold confirms Intermediate Wave 4 is complete - That opens the path toward the Cycle Wave 3 objective Buy / Accumulation zone - Core accumulation completed earlier between $70–$90 (H1 2025) - Additional buys executed at ~$118 ahead of the breakout - Further adds taken post-breakout after support confirmed outside the channel - Next opportunity comes only on a confirmed higher-degree pullback Targets - Cycle Wave 3 target: 1.618 Fib extension at $225 area - Higher extensions remain possible if momentum persists Execution note - Patience through a 9-month base was rewarded with a +100% move - Recent adds followed rules and structure — discipline is paying off
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by maratteo
USD/CAD: Elliott Wave Bearish BiasUSD/CAD is showing a bearish Elliott Wave structure on the 4H chart. Price appears to have completed a corrective Wave 2 near the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, which is a common area for corrections to end. From there, the market has started to turn lower, suggesting the beginning of a new impulsive Wave 3 to the downside, which is usually the strongest bearish wave. As long as price stays below the recent swing high near the retracement zone, the bias remains bearish, with downside targets toward the 1.365–1.360 area. A move above the Wave 2 high would invalidate this count and delay the bearish scenario. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
Short
by Money_Dictators
EUR/USD is benefiting from the Greenland diplomatic crisis.The euro has recovered most of its January losses and is now targeting a critical resistance area. ⚡Psychological Support (1.1700): EUR/USD's success in holding above 1.1700 confirms a shift in short-term sentiment from bearish to consolidative with an upward bias. ⚡RSI (58 - 60): Is in the positive zone but not yet overbought, giving the euro room to attempt a further rally. ✅ Key Levels to Watch ⚡Major Resistance ($1.1750 - $1.1800): A breakout of 1.1750 would pave the way for EUR/USD to test the 1.1800 area (early January peak). A successful settlement above 1.1800 would officially end this month's downtrend. ⚡Immediate Support ($1.1700): This level must be held. A daily close below this level would bring the pair back to the neutral zone around 1.1660. ⚡US Jobless Claims & PCE (Thursday): Tomorrow's employment data and PCE inflation will be the real test for the dollar. If US data is significantly stronger than expected, the euro could suddenly lose its upward momentum.
Long
by NouzTrader
Ethereum at $1,000: a new reality?Greetings! The Financial Analyst is watching the markets, which means fresh, high-quality analysis is already in front of you. Today we’ll break down Ethereum’s outlook for the coming year. First of all, let’s be clear: there is a very high probability that we are already in a bear market. And in a bear market, many projects simply disappear, because funding and clients drop by 70-90%, just like altcoins falling from their highs. So, Ethereum is not just the second-largest coin by market cap. Ethereum is B2B. And the higher the token price is (and therefore fees, gas costs, deployments), the worse it actually is for ETH itself, as Buterin has said. That’s why, in my opinion, a bear market actually gives startups and new projects a good opportunity to start at reasonable prices. Second, let’s look at the chart: We’ve been moving sideways for 1,715 days! That’s insane. What alt season are you all waiting for? What kind of bull run in alts? As long as Ethereum stays in this range, it won’t happen. We need to break out of this range like a champagne cork-then all altcoins will fly after it. For now, we’ve drawn a deviation (liquidity grab) on the top, which suggests a potential move to draw a deviation on the bottom. On top of that, we have a distribution pattern, and I think we may also see a full five-wave structure. In short, $1,000 per ETH is brutal. But even if we do see $1,000, only a few people will buy-because there simply won’t be any money left after the entire market falls. Subscribe.
Short
by Finance_Lozha
3
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to 161.8% Fibo 4728 .Colleagues, the price is updating its maximum, and I think we shouldn't stop there. After re-marking the waves, I realized that it would be more correct to place wave “3” at the 4549 level, since 5 waves fit well into it. This means that the price is now in wave “5,” which can be quite unpredictable, but if we look at the blue waves, we can assume that there is now a medium-term impulse wave “3,” which means we can apply Fibonacci extension levels and see the 161.8% level as the target. But I don't want to take such a risk and will set a slightly lower target - in the 4728 area. At the moment, we need to be very careful. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
74
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to resistance area 1.17420.Colleagues, the price has either completed or is completing a corrective movement in wave “2,” and I expect an upward movement to begin, which has either already started or will start soon. I believe there is a possibility of the local minimum of 1.16180 being updated to the 1.16036 area, but the main target is the 1.17420 area, which is the maximum area of the average corrective wave “B” and confirmation of the start of the upward wave “3”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
43
GER40 (DAX) – Bearish Continuation SetupGER40 (DAX) – Bearish Continuation Setup | Jan 20, 2026 Market Context The current macro environment remains fragile for European equities. Eurozone growth continues to underperform, with Germany particularly exposed to: Weak industrial momentum Elevated energy costs Soft business confidence expectations (IFO ahead) At the same time, global risk sentiment is leaning risk-off, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and USD repositioning flows. This backdrop continues to weigh on cyclically sensitive indices such as the GER40. Technical Structure (Elliott Wave Perspective) From a technical standpoint, GER40 is trading within a confirmed bearish structure. A strong impulsive move to the downside has already unfolded. Price is currently consolidating in a weak corrective phase, consistent with a Wave 2 retracement within a larger bearish cycle. The retracement remains shallow and overlapping, failing to reclaim key supply zones above. This behaviour is typical of a market preparing for a Wave 3 continuation, rather than a trend reversal. Key Technical Levels Trigger (Confirmation Level): ~24,502 A decisive break and acceptance below this level confirms the end of Wave 2. Stop Loss (Technical): ~24,725 Located above the corrective structure. Structural Invalidation: ~24,790 A move above this level invalidates the bearish Elliott scenario. Target 1 (Wave 3 Extension): ~24,025 Target 2 (Deeper Extension / Liquidity Zone): ~23,596 Risk/Reward improves significantly once price accepts below the trigger. Execution Plan Bias: Bearish Horizon: Swing Entry Condition: Short only after a break and hold below 24,502 (confirmation-based entry). No anticipation trades. No early shorts. This setup favors patience over prediction. Until the trigger is broken with acceptance, the market remains in corrective mode. Macro Alignment This technical setup aligns with the broader macro thesis: Eurozone growth concerns remain unresolved. German data continues to underperform expectations. Risk appetite is fragile, limiting upside follow-through. Any short-term rebounds are likely corrective unless macro conditions materially improve. Upcoming German IFO Business Climate data remains a key event risk. Position sizing should be adjusted accordingly. Final Notes This is a conditional continuation trade, not a forecast. The setup does not exist until price confirms it. If acceptance below the trigger occurs, the probability favors a sustained bearish leg. If not, continued consolidation or a prolonged Wave 2 remains the dominant scenario. Stay reactive.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by JudasSwingClub
1
ETH: Pullback Sets Up New Buying OpportunitiesEthereum has also experienced another downward move in recent hours. For now, there remains a 40% probability that the recent rally could continue above resistance at $3,656 before a sell-off into the green Target Zone between $2,228 and $1,789 occurs. However, under our primary scenario, the price is expected to stay below $3,656, break through support at $2,620, and move directly into the Target Zone. From that point, we anticipate in both scenarios a substantial (though corrective) rally into the red Target Zone (coordinates: $5,805–$7,326).
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by HKCM_Global
1
GMR Power — Extended Wave-3, Contracting Wave-4… Resolution📉 GMR Power & Urban Infra — Weekly Context and Daily Wave-4 / Wave-5 Structure (Elliott Study) This publication presents an educational Elliott Wave structure study 📚 using the Weekly timeframe for the overall market context and the Daily timeframe to analyse the ongoing Wave-4 correction , its probable termination area, and the conditional Wave-5 projection . On the Weekly chart , GMR Power shows a clear impulsive advance from the 2023 base into the ₹169.25 region , labelled as Wave-(3) . Fibonacci extension analysis shows that this move exceeded the 3.618 extension and approached the 4.0 level , confirming that Wave-3 is the extended wave . After this peak, price behaviour shifted from strong trending action to overlapping and corrective movement , signalling the development of Wave-(4) . On the Daily chart , Wave-(4) is unfolding as a contracting triangle (A–B–C–D–E) 🔺. Each leg is corrective and overlapping, volatility has contracted, and momentum has faded. This behaviour is typical of a Wave-4 triangle following an extended Wave-3 , where the market corrects more through time than price ⏳. From a structural and Fibonacci perspective 📐, the Wave-E termination zone is identified between approximately ₹85–95 . This region aligns with the 0.618–0.786 retracement band of the prior advance. In Elliott Wave studies, Wave-E of a triangle often resolves quietly and may not show a dramatic breakdown, which matches the current behaviour. Because Wave-3 is extended , Elliott alternation principles suggest that Wave-5 is more likely to be contracted rather than extended . Therefore, Wave-5 expectations are best framed using triangle thrust measurement and reduced Fibonacci relationships to Wave-1 , rather than equality or extension relative to Wave-3. Using these methods, the primary Wave-5 reference zone lies in the ₹120–140 region . A move toward the ₹160–170 area would be considered a lower-probability stretch scenario and would require clear impulsive behaviour and momentum expansion. A truncated Wave-5 remains possible but is not the base expectation. This study focuses on structure, probability, and wave behaviour 🧠 rather than prediction. Discussion of Wave-5 becomes relevant only after the triangle completes and price clearly transitions from corrective overlap to impulsive movement . This publication is shared strictly for educational and analytical discussion 📚⚠️ and does not constitute investment advice.
NSE:GMRP&UILong
by MendiUser
1