Get started

Emacrossover

Trading The Bitcoin HalvingCryptohopper Newsletter Market Analysis After failing to break the resistance around $10,000, Bitcoin is closing in on the support level at $8,000. Bitcoin has had a correction after the last halving, so a short bear market scenario is not out of the question. The first and second halving overall provided some excellent opportunities for position traders. Today we will look at a strategy that would have increased your account by 3,500% if you had used it during the last halving! If you had bought $1,000 Bitcoin in September 2016 at $600 and held it to the top in December 2017 at $19,600, you would have made about 3,150% , and your account value would be 31,150$ . Most people will call this utterly unrealistic , as it is almost impossible to buy something at the bottom and hold it all the way to the top. However, what if we told you that there is a strategy that would have increased your account even more during this period? Position Trading A position trader is an individual who holds an investment for weeks or even months at a time. They are not concerned with the short term fluctuation and aim to catch the more significant swings in the market. According to Investopedia, most position traders place less than ten trades a year . So how can someone who barely trades beat a very bullish market? That’s what we are going to find out int he next section. Position Trading Strategy Our goal with position trading is to catch the bigger trends. Therefore trend-following indicators are the most appropriate to use in this case. In our case, we will use the crossover of the 5 and 25 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When the 5 EMA crosses over the 25 EMA upwards, we will take a long position, and when it crosses it downwards, we will close our position. This trading method will allow you to ride each swing almost to the top. Then, if you have 1,000$ and you made the following 5 trades with these gains: 58%, 36%, 132%, 90%, 270% then your account will look like this: 1000$ * 1.58 * 1.36 * 2.32 * 1.9 * 3.7 = 35,046$. This strategy provides an even greater reward than if you would have bought at the bottom and held all the way to the top. Simultaneously, it is a lot more realistic as it is a simple trading strategy based on the EMA crossovers. Other trend-following indicators that you can use are the SMA, DEMA, TEMA, KAMA, MESA, Parabolic SAR, Ichimoku Cloud, T3, WMA, etc. All of these indicators are available at Cryptohoper, along with many more.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by cryptohopper
2
DCAR opening spikeSeeing some large Bids PM in the high .60s and low .70s. Very little if any profit taking this morning which leads me to believe this is going to see a decent spike back to the mid .90s before re-testing support. I can see this dipping to the 0.618 Fib but, probably not much lower than that. The 50EMA seems to be a good support if we slip past the 0.618 Fib in the dip just before open again not likely. Cup and handle on the hourly. If we get some volume after initial spike this could see yesterdays highs.
D
by Crispier-Bacon
Silver to $21 on April? Begin wave 3 of 5?Silver has been regaining strong momentum I attempted to label the waves as best as I could Estimating we are in wave 3 of 5. On the Daily chart: Momentum pushing above Keltner Channels 10/20 EMA cross Positive PSAR RSI has crossed above 60 Using Fibonacci extension tool on wave 5 Pulling from Dec 7th as the start of wave 1 to $18.80 end of wave 1 and then pulled to $17.45 as end of wave 2 I am estimating a target at $21.20 at the 161.8% extension Not shown but I might try to later but I am experimenting with Fib Time Extensions and Fib Channels giving me a date target of April 15th From $21.20 I think wave 4 will retrace 38.2% to $19.60 in a ranging behavior
TVC:SILVERLong
by KondrackiKarl
1
BTCUSD Ichimoku + EMA Ribbon! (MASSIVE)Don't miss out on this longer term analysis, which includes the Bitcoin Halving Events in 2012, 2016, and the upcoming 2020 (vertical lines in green). This is a combination of 2 main indicators: EMA Ribbon - We observe longer line in green (indicating sustained uptrend) vs red (indicating sustained downtrend). historically, the red portions are relatively short. In the last halving period (2012-2016) this bearish period lasted for approximately 13 months. In this period (2016-2020), it last for approximately 12 months. This is relatively accurate thus far, with a Bullish Ribbon Crossovers occurring right before testing the Senkou Span. Ichimoku - The Kumo Twist is the most indicative for projecting future price trends (28 time periods to be specific). We observe that the leading span seems to be printing a green cloud formation. As long as price action remains above this cloud, we can be sure that an uptrend is maintained. It remains to be seen if the price can break above the cloud. Do keep in mind 2 things: Firstly, price will always seek to return to its median. And in this case, we see that the price of BTC has extended a fair distance from the EMA Ribbon, hence the recent pullback, seeking to 'hug' the longer term EMA line (or the green line in this case). On this basis, the lowest support without failing the EMA would be approximately $6000. Secondly, be mindful that this is a longer term analysis, and should not be used for short term or intraday trading decisions. Hold on to your coins lads, for we may be in for a ride soon. LASTLY, the bullish period to bearish period ratio is about 3:1, so you may want to hold on to those hot potatoes instead of panic selling. :):)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by gingerbre4d
2
Bitcoin waking up after being repeatedly poked with a stick..Good day Traders As I'm sure everyone and their pet poodle knows, bitcoin had a triangle breakout a few days ago with all the volume we were looking for. If you see my previous post, I thought we would first drop to just under $3k for a dead cat bounce to $5200, however, we've averted the weekly EMA15 and EMA200 bearish cross for now. The market was impatient and started the wave up without that drop and it seems we could be in the midst of a mid term change in trend already (just a pause in downtrend, as opposed to the end of the downtrend). Since we never had that drop, I think we could possibly reach an even higher fomo extension target than the $5200 I originally had in mind. During a strong trend reversal, it's not uncommon to have a 261.8 - 461.8 fib extension of the first breakout impulse wave. We have a number of bullish signals and patterns for a mid term trend change: Bullish crossover EMA10 and SMA100 about to take place Bullish crossover EMA10 and EMA50 complete (backtest to see how significant these crosses are on the daily chart) Price closed above SMA100, EMA10 and EMA50 on the daily Potential Inverse H&S - currently printing the right shoulder Breakout from symmetrical triangle (reversal scenario as opposed to the usual continuation pattern) I suspect we'll now have a 38.2-68.1 fib retracement of the recent breakout impulse). These impulse waves have been so strong that we haven't had much pullback since the start of Feb. We should find support at our daily SMA100, and start moving towards our IHS neckline for a potential breakout. The breakout will need strong increasing volume to break through major trendline resistance from our ATH. First TP is $4300/$4400 which is a 161.8 fib extension of the recent breakout impulse, and our daily SMA128 resistance, which has held as significant S/R in the past for bitcoin). This area has held as strong resistance since 28 November 2018, so we should have a better idea if this is in fact a change in trend once we reach those levels and assess the volume profile. If $4300/$4400 doesn't provide much resistance and we blast through with ease with increasing volume, then safe to say we're probably heading up, with a change in trend direction to fill those outstanding liquidity gaps in the $4- 5ks. Second TP is 261.8 fib extension target of $4760 - $4880 which is also the target for the inverse H&S. Third TP is the minimum target for the symmetrical triangle breakout, our daily SMA200 resistance and a 361.8 fib extension target of $5230/$5350. Any move above our daily SMA200, I expect to be a short-lived extension. That $6k resistance is not going to be an easy nut to crack, after serving as impenetrable support for almost a year and I suspect if we do fomo that high, we'll probably have a 461.8 fib bull trap extension limit of $5700-$5800, before resuming the downtrend from there, potentially to new lows. Good luck and happy trading! Previous chart: "Already bottomed" view (unlikely) :
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Corn_Reaper
1
AUDCAD - Potential move down to retest the .938 zoneMy last AUDCAD was looking for a short move from the HS pattern to the .938 Zone and the volatility this week hit the TP. We can see price has moved back up to the .952 zone but has reversed off the 20 EMA. We can see the 20 EMA and also Crossed the 200 EMA line. Given the above, we could see a retest of the .938 zone before a potential reversal to the upside. Given the volatility this week and the AUDUSD and AUD JPY price action, trade with caution.
by dnsmith
CHFJPY (H4): Retracement (Long) Likely to HappenCHFJPY Timeframe: H4 Direction: Long Confluences for Trade: - Strong Bullish Engulfing Candle - Break of Trendline in H4 (Established since Sept 2018) - Hovering around 50% Fibo levels of previous uptrend move - Narrowing gap between 8EMA and 50EMA - SL Levels is placed below the M/T Trendline (since May 2018) and 61% Fibo levels of previous uptrend move However Stochastic is showing H4 is around Overbought conditions, you may want to consider to wait till the Stochastics re-balances itself before entering the trade. Suggested Trade: Entry @ Anywhere around Area of Interest (113.00 - 113.80) SL: 112.17 TP: 115.95 RR: Approximately 2.21 (Depending on Entry Levels) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Long
by weekendanalyst
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 180)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 1-2 weeks: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Was seeing a bullish setup on short term time frames. Stay away from opening a position due to being at long term resistance / Sidelines Patterns: Descending triangle. No longer calling for a bear flag due to the length of the flag in relation to the pole. Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,800 | S: $6,575 BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke down trend and failed to turn prior resistance into support. Expecting for pullback like we saw on April 12th. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0006% | 55% short:45% long 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 day EMA acted as support. Price is +1.83% | 26 EMA currently being tested for support. 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -3.96% | 128 = -10.14% Volume: Has been below daily MA for last 4 days. Seems to be falling as price rises. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,893 | 0.5 = $7,166 Candlestick analysis: Bouncing off weekly hammer candle. 3d hanging man at resistance. Daily hanging man forming at resistance Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud at Kijun at $7,100 - $7,200 should be strong resistance in combination with 0.5 fib. TD’ Sequential: Red 3 on the weekly. Green 4 on the daily. Visible Range: 1 month lookback shows low volume nodes from $6,800 - $8,000. 3 months shows LVN’s from $6,800 - $7,200. 6 month shows HVN’s from $6,800 - $8,200. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 1d = -1.33% | 1w = +2.49% | 2w = +5.97% | 1m = -18.67% Bollinger Bands: Currently resisting top band on daily and 12h. Trendline: Descending triangle Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: UP = $6,895 | DOWN = $6,229 On Balance Volume: Following price with no divs’ ADX: Did not find support >/= 20 following bullish DI cross. Indicates that we could be in for another 3+ months of ranging between $6,000 - $8,000 Chaikin Money Flow: Broke through resistance on daily and appears to be turning it into support. Still rallying on the weekly for a large bull divergence. RSI (30 setting): W = 49.17 | D = 47.71 and turning over. Will it support >/= 45.7? Stoch: Approaching overbought zones on daily. Still bearish on weekly. Summary: I cannot remember the last time where the technicals were this split down the middle. There are multiple reliable indicators that point towards the bulls taking control and there are just as many (if not more) for the bears. Bullish Case: Weekly hammer candle, btcusdshorts’ pulling back from ATH' levels, 12 & 26 EMA’s making bullish crossover on 2h - 12h. 3 day stochastic, +DI making bullish cross with -DI on the daily ADX. Bearish Case: Horizontal resistance at $6,800 as prior support attempts to become resistance, Daily BB, Daily Stochastic, Red 3 on weekly TD' Sequential, 12 & 26 EMA’s making bearish cross on 1h as well as the resistance cluster from: 50 day MA, 6 month VRVP, Ichimoku Cloud, Kijun-Sen and 0.5 FIB When the waters' are this muddied it is crucial to stay on the sidelines. If you are taking a position when there is this much uncertainty then it is highly likely you are just gambling/itching for action. Observing, analyzing and preparing from the sidelines is the way to beat the market in the long run. Taking on highly speculative positions on days like today is a great way to get rekt. Learn to enjoy being out of a position and the lower levels of stress/anxiety that will result. Understand that you will see things more clearly/objectively when you are not in a position. Use that mental clarity to your advantage by preparing for the next entry and living a balanced lifestyle. Set price alerts, go outside, smell the flowers, read, exercise, eat a nice meal and be social. All of those actions will help to provide perspective and clarity. Thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
5
What a Pump right??? BTC breaks 7kNow you can see, Phase D can be said has begun, in this Accumulation process, I HATE to be so intense in my analysis, but I insist, a retest on the Trendline must be enough to shakeout the market, I don't think this is done. YES, I expect a pullback later today, maybe tomorrow, and definitely I expect a top at 8kish... but first, we need to correct 7.4k jump, then 7.8k we didn't break in June of course, and then we will be able to go to 8kish... In the Daily, We are also having difficulties to break above EMA 100 so, it is at 7.4k... so I guess this is first station. SPANISH: Ahora pueden ver, la Fase D se puede decir que ha comenzado en este proceso de Acumulación, ODIO ser tan intensa en mi análisis, pero insisto, un nuevo retest en la línea de tendencia debe ser suficiente para sacudir el mercado, no creo esto haya sido todo. SÍ, espero un retroceso más tarde, tal vez mañana y, definitivamente espero una tope en los 8k... Pero primero, tenemos que corregir el salto a 7.4k, luego los 7.8k que no rompimos en junio, por supuesto, y luego podrá ir a los 8k... En velas diarias, estamos teniendo dificultades para superar el EMA 100 que se sitúa en 7.4k ... así que supongo que esta es la primera parada de descanso.
by G0ldenross
4
Inverse Head and Shoulders Completed on NUWe saw strong bullish momentum after breaking the neckline of the Inverse head and shoulders pattern. We recently just broke an earlier swing low point at 0.683 - 0.6835 but price has slowed down at this point to test this level. We will see if we get confirmation on continuation for a bullish more. Also we still have clear confirmation on the EMA crossover signalling more longs to come. Monthly Fibonacci pivot point showing pivot directly inside the next resistance zone drawn on chart.
Long
by TheCaffeinatedTrader
BTC recovering a bit at the momentRight now we have a bounce in Major Support area, Although it was broken. We have Buying Climax, Good bull pressure at the moment, but be careful with traps, you all know my strong analysis. We can be headed to 6.9k where I found first good resistance using Fibonacci, if we can get pass through this area, we might try to break stronger resistance at 7.6k, speaking of which we couldn't get pass last week, so I really don't believe we will this time- I'm just aware that anything can happen, and indeed, we can break it. This is a 'zoom in' chart analysis. we also have RSI showing strength and a bounce in the 20 level at oversold area, and has crossed above the smoothy EMA so, we also have an important resistance at level 56 in RSI but I guess that just something to watch out not SO important. I will be updating this chart as soon is showing some good info! Give a like guys!!
by G0ldenross
1
RSI bullish divergences in accumulation zone?RLCBTC is in downtrend for 2 days and 18 hours with 25% loss. Before that we are had spike with 25% up. Now we are in the same zone of accumulation (channel) that we had been before last spike up. U can see that we have some smart money here because they are hunting stop losses above the channel of consolidation (accumulation). Also u can see that we are having a RSI bullish divergences. I'm waiting for price goes above the channel, then to touch channel to make a support and then goes up to 2644 (line of the cup and handle pattern on 1D timeframe). After that we will see some retracement, and another bull run to breakout from C&H pattern Also one good indicator for up from the accumulation zone is EMA bullish crossover. We need to see that EMA 50 will crossover the EMA 200, that will be a good sign. P.S. Zoom out to see a previous accumulation zone, and the breakout to distribution zone.
Long
by DogenSrb
2