Energy Commodities
MCX Crude Oil: Bearish Setup with 5550 PEMCX Crude Oil – November Contract
CMP: ₹5467
Bearish view
Bought 5550 Put Option (Expiry: 17 Nov 2025)
Target: ₹320 to ₹325
Target valid till 14 Nov 2025
Tracking price action closely. Will reassess if momentum fades or structure breaks.
#CrudeOilOptions #MCX #OptionsTrading #TradeSetup #PriceAction #TradingViewIndia #DerivativeStrategy #PutOption #ExpirySetup
Crude Oil Long Idea (WTI, 15m)After an extended correction, WTI has reached the lower boundary of the ascending channel, where buying volume spikes are appearing. The market is testing support near $60.70–$60.50, aligning with the median line structure from previous swings.
A potential reversal setup may form if price holds above this zone and reclaims $61.20.
The first bullish target lies near $62.30–$62.60, followed by the upper channel resistance around $63.50.
Bias: short-term long within the broader bullish channel; invalidation if candle closes below $60.00.
In essence — buying oil at the lower edge of the channel, expecting a rebound toward midline resistance.
Crude oil: Sell near 63.00, targeting 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil has been volatile, with few significant unilateral moves. Today, we're focusing on short-term rebound opportunities. We recommend selling high and taking a bearish stance. The impact of crude oil fundamentals and news is short-lived. Previous inventory data support buying, but we should still sell as crude oil nears 63.00.
Fundamental Analysis:
The decline in gold prices is ultimately due to the fading of news, which has led to a decline in risk aversion. We will continue to monitor the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil: Sell near 63.00, targeting 60.00-58.00.
CRUDE OIL Potential Short! Sell!
Hello, Traders!
CRUDE OIL Price is reacting to a clear Horizontal Supply Area after liquidity sweep above the recent swing high. Smart money positioning suggests a short-term redistribution phase as sell-side liquidity below $61 becomes the draw.Time Frame 4H.
Sell!
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USOIL WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL/b] after engineering liquidity above the recent high, price reacted sharply from the 4H supply area, suggesting distribution by institutional players. With buy-side liquidity swept, the market now looks poised to rebalance inefficiency below the $61 handle. Time Frame 4H.
SHORT🔥
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AREC potential trend structurePrice is showing a constructive mid-term trend structure, with price now testing a key support zone around 3.0–2.7–2.6. This area could serve as a potential higher low base for the next leg up toward the 8.5–12.0 resistance range.
As long as price continues to close above 2.57, I’ll be holding this trend structure with higher resistance targets in focus over the coming months.
Chart:
USOIL – Daily Rejection & 4H Bearish Engulfing: Short Setup from 💬 Trade Description:
Price on **USOIL** recently pushed into a **daily supply zone** around the **62.00 area**, which had previously acted as a strong rejection point.
On the **daily timeframe**, a **clear pin-bar rejection** formed, showing that buyers lost control and sellers are stepping back into the market.
Dropping down to the **4-hour timeframe**, price created a **bearish engulfing candle** directly inside that same daily supply zone — confirming a strong **shift in momentum** and offering a precise entry opportunity.
This setup aligns perfectly with the **higher-timeframe bearish structure**, where the market continues to print **lower highs and lower lows**.
The reaction from the 62.00 zone suggests a potential continuation to the downside as price seeks liquidity near the **next major demand zone around 57.00**.
⚙️ Trade Breakdown:
* **Weekly Bias:** Bearish — market creating lower highs.
* **Daily Confirmation:** Pin bar rejection from daily supply.
* **4H Entry Trigger:** Bearish engulfing after retest.
* **Entry:** After 4H candle close.
* **Stop Loss:** Above the 4H engulfing high.
* **Take Profit:** Targeting 57.00 (next demand zone).
---
## 🧩 Technical Insights:
* The **daily pin bar** served as higher-timeframe confirmation that sellers were defending a premium level.
* The **4H engulfing** offered an early confirmation of short-term structure shift.
* The **trade idea** follows a simple, high-probability model:
**“Daily confirmation → 4H execution → Patience for follow-through.”**
---
## 💭 Trader’s Note:
Patience was key on this one. I waited for the daily signal first before dropping to the 4H to catch the clean bearish momentum. This is how I’m structuring all my trades now — only executing when the higher-timeframe aligns with the lower-timeframe trigger.
Discipline > Frequency.
Quality > Quantity.
USOIL SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 61.87
Target Level: 58.58
Stop Loss: 64.06
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 6h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Crude oil - Sell around 63.60, target 61.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil inventory data triggered a surge in buying. The daily price rebounded to around 60.00 after two sessions. The current daily chart suggests selling pressure remains. This week, our outlook remains bearish. I predict a corrective rebound this week, followed by continued declines in the second half of the week. Crude oil is unlikely to see a significant rebound, so continue selling. Sell if it rebounds to around 63.60 today.
Fundamental Analysis:
For fundamentals, we're focusing on key data and geopolitical developments. This week will feature the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate decision, and the market currently anticipates continued easing.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil - Sell around 63.60, target 61.00-58.00
WTI(20251027)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
① September's US CPI fell short of expectations across the board, leading traders to bet on two more Fed rate cuts this year.
② White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated the data was "excellent," indicating slowing inflation and easing pressure on the Fed.
③ The White House stated that inflation data may not be released next month, a first for the time being. Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
61.54
Support and Resistance Levels:
62.86
62.37
62.05
61.03
60.71
60.22
Trading Strategy:
If the market breaks above 62.05, consider entering a buy position, with the first target at 62.37.
If the market breaks below 61.54, consider entering a sell position, with the first target at 61.03.
Crude oil analysis and trading strategiesAffected by the U.S. sanctions on Russia and India's reduction in crude oil imports from Russia, coupled with the boost to demand from the easing of trade tensions, crude oil prices have rebounded significantly amid multiple uncertainties.
From the daily chart perspective, after oil prices touched around the 56 level, the candlesticks closed three consecutive bullish candles, successfully regaining the losses from the previous decline.
Oil prices have broken above the moving average system, and the medium-term objective trend has shifted from a downward direction to a transition phase. The MACD indicator has opened upward below the zero line, indicating that the bearish momentum is weakening. It is expected that the medium-term trend of oil prices will gradually pick up, but a clear medium-term bullish pattern has not yet been formed. From the 1-hour short-term trend, oil prices have risen for three consecutive trading days, breaking through the 60 level and reaching a high above 62. The current moving average system shows a bullish arrangement, providing support for oil prices, and the short-term trend is generally upward.
During the early trading session, oil prices fluctuated slightly within a high-level range. It is expected that the intraday crude oil trend will continue the upward rhythm. Based on comprehensive analysis, the trading strategy for crude oil today is recommended to focus on buying on dips.
Resistance Levels:61.50, 62.00, 63.00
Support Levels: 59.50, 59.00, 58.50
USOIL IN DOUBLE BOTTOM, MAYBE TARGETING ABOVE 66Oil may have found temporary bottom with the weekly double bottom.
N.B!
- USOIL price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#usoil
#ukoil
Daily Outlook on Surge Energy (SGY)In this outlook I am providing a daily chart update of the previous weekly outlook. Since the weekly outlook was posted TSX:SGY has moved higher in an impulse, after which we have had a shallow correction, SGY could be about the break out of that correction. The correction has reached the 38.2% retracement of a or i and price has also reacted at the 100% extension within the sub waves of the wave b or ii flat pattern correction (not shown on this timeframe). Oil is making a move higher, so SGY could follow it. More comments on the chart.
WTI: Possible reversal after false breakout of 60.128Weekly range structure may define oil’s direction for the coming months — buyers defend key support, while targets above 66.769 remain in focus.
Hi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) concept.
On the weekly timeframe, a sideways range has been in place since April 2023, followed by a transitional phase.
Sellers managed to push the price below the lower boundary of this range — the first breakout occurred in March 2025.
After that, buyers brought the price back inside the range and reached the 50% level of the trading zone, from where sellers resumed control and once again pushed the price below the lower boundary at 63.668.
What’s interesting here is that earlier there was a buyer’s move returning the price into the range, with its base around 60.128.
We now see a seller candle attacking this level on high volume, followed by another seller candle with even higher volume, after which the price returned above 60.128.
This behavior may signal a false breakout (manipulation) of that level.
If this interpretation holds, the next potential upside targets are:
66.769 — first target,
71.328 — second target,
78.436 — third target,
followed by 87.895 and possibly 95.501.
Key points to watch:
whether buyers defend the 60.128 level if the price pulls back,
and whether they manage to break through the range boundary at 63.668, and then 66.769
.
If buyers succeed in holding above these two levels, the buyer’s vector is likely to continue developing toward the mentioned upside targets.
Wishing you profitable trades!
WTI Crude Oil Forms Major Head and Shoulders BreakdownHi guys.
WTI has formed a massive Head and Shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential long-term bearish reversal structure.
After the right shoulder completed, price decisively broke below the neckline around the $67–$70 range, confirming the pattern breakdown. This neckline now acts as a major resistance zone and aligns closely with the descending trendline, adding confluence to the bearish bias.
The recent rebound appears to be a corrective pullback toward the neckline or flip area, before potentially continuing to the downside. As long as WTI remains below the descending trendline and neckline zone, bearish momentum is expected to dominate.
The projected measured move target from the pattern suggests two possible support objectives:
First target: around $49.40, corresponding to prior consolidation and structural support.
Final target: near $43.40, aligning with historical demand and the full measured move projection from the Head and Shoulders formation.
Overall, unless WTI reclaims and sustains above the $70 area, the medium- to long-term bias remains bearish, with corrective rallies likely to face selling pressure.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
USOIL: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
The analysis of the USOIL chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to tank due to the rising pressure from the sellers.
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Review of USOIL's Performance This Week📝This week, the USOil market exhibited a highly volatile pattern of "first bottoming out and stabilizing, then rebounding driven by geopolitical factors". The competition between supply-demand fundamentals and sudden geopolitical events dominated the market trend throughout the week. Details are as follows:
💡Price Movement: From Approaching Annual Lows to Intraday Surges, Volatility Within Ranges Intensifies
1. Bottoming Out Early in the Week
On Monday, USOil continued its weak oscillation. It opened at $57.32 per barrel, dipped to a low of around $56 per barrel (approaching the 2025 annual low of $55.12), and finally closed at $56.93 per barrel, down $0.61 from the previous trading day.
From Tuesday to Wednesday, as panic eased, prices gradually stabilized and rebounded. It closed at $57.58 per barrel on Tuesday; on Wednesday, boosted by geopolitical expectations, it surged by $3.25 in a single day to close at $61.75 per barrel, with trading volume rising to 711,600 lots.
2. Rebounding and Then Retreating in the Latter Half of the Week
On Thursday, the official release of detailed EU and U.S. sanctions on Russian energy triggered a strong market reaction. USOil opened at $59.94 per barrel and then jumped, peaking at $62.59 per barrel with an intraday gain of nearly 5%, before closing at $61.44 per barrel.
On Friday, after the earlier rebound, prices entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating narrowly around $62. For the whole week, it rebounded by over 10% from the previous week’s low.
💡Core Influencing Factors:
1. Bearish Drivers: Sustained Supply-Demand Easing Suppresses Oil Prices
✔Worsening Supply Glut
✔Weak Demand Weighs on Prices
2. Bullish Disturbances: Geopolitical Sanctions Trigger a Phased Rebo
💡Technicals and Market Sentiment: Recovery After Oversold Conditions, Persistent Long-Short Divisions
1. Divergent Signals from Technical Indicators
2. Intense Battles Around Key Levels
The support at the annual low of $55.12 proved effective, serving as the starting point for the week’s bottoming and rebound. The resistance levels at $58 and $62 were breached one after another, but the resistance from the $63 level and the 70-dollar trend line still posed long-term pressure. A breakthrough would require sustained improvement in fundamental
💡Outlook: Short-Term Oscillations Unlikely to Reverse Long-Term Weak Trend
💎Short-Term Perspective: Geopolitical risk premiums and technical recovery after oversold conditions may support oil prices to fluctuate within the $58-$63 range. If the supply gap caused by sanctions continues to widen, it may test the resistance level of $66.
💎Long-Term Perspective: The IEA predicts that Brent crude oil prices will range between $52-$60 in 2026. Core contradictions such as loose supply-demand, accelerated energy transition, and approaching demand peaks remain unresolved. If the support at $55 is broken, it may fall to the deep correction range of $49 or even $37.
The market should focus on whether OPEC+ will adjust its production increase plan at the November 2 meeting and the impact of global manufacturing PMI data on demand expectations.
BRIEFING Week #43 : The Value Trade
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USOIL Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 61.43
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 59.88
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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