ETH - Roll back - Its coming baack to 4500SO mods told me to write it big, so eth looks good for a pullback like I have drawn and corresponding to it, moves super well as seen and what.i drew
ETH
Volatility Period: Around September 18th (September 17th-19th)
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(ETHUSDT 1D Chart)
The 4403.87-4749.30 range, which is the HA-High ~ DOM (60) range, represents a resistance zone.
Therefore, we need to monitor the price movement after the current volatility period, around September 18 (September 17-19).
To sustain the uptrend, the price must remain above the 3900.73-4107.80 range.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the 3265.0-3321.30 range is a key area.
Considering the above, if it falls below 4403.87,
1st: 4107.80-4372.72
2nd: 3265.0-3321.30
Therefore, it is likely to fall to the first and second levels above.
Therefore, the key question is whether it can find support near 4403.87 after this period of volatility.
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When trading, it's important to understand the current price level.
I believe there are several ways to determine this.
My basic trading strategy is to determine when to trade.
My basic trading strategy is to buy when support is found in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and rise, and to sell when it touches the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
However, if the price rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, a step-like upward trend is likely, while if it falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, a step-like downward trend is likely.
Therefore, the basic trading strategy should be a segmented trading strategy.
If you were unable to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, but the current price is within the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, you should check for support.
Support is determined by checking whether support is found near the HA-Low or DOM(60) indicators.
If you bought when support was found near the HA-Low indicator, the first sell position would be near the DOM(60) indicator.
If you bought when support was found near the DOM(60) indicator, you should execute the trade quickly and effectively.
If the price falls below the purchase price, it would be considered a buy at the high.
To prevent this to some extent, we've utilized several indicators for verification.
First, we utilize the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
That is, if the M-Signal indicator is passing near important support and resistance levels, the presence of support in that area is likely to play a more important role.
Currently, the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart is passing near 4403.87, so we should consider the area around 4403.87 as a potential important support and resistance level.
Second, we should monitor the movements of auxiliary indicators such as the TC (Trend Check) indicator, the StochRSI indicator, and the On-By-Signal (OBV) indicator.
For the price to continue its upward trend in this important support area,
- the StochRSI indicator must show an upward trend. If possible, it's best to avoid entering the overbought zone.
- The OBV indicator should be showing an upward trend. If possible, it should remain above the High Line.
- The TC (Trend Check) indicator should be showing an upward trend. If possible, it should remain above the 0 level.
By monitoring the movements of the three indicators above, you can determine whether there is support near important support and resistance levels.
However, you should not blindly trust the movements of auxiliary indicators. Even if you have identified the movements of auxiliary indicators, you should always monitor the price movement.
To determine support, you should monitor the price movement for at least 1-3 days.
This is especially important during periods of volatility.
Volatility is a period where you cannot predict the direction of movement, so extra caution is required.
Therefore, if possible, it's better to observe the situation and find a trading opportunity after the volatility period has passed rather than entering a new trade during a volatile period.
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Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading.
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- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
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ETH.D (Ethereum Dominance) Weekly TF 2025
Summary:
Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) has likely bottomed after retracing to its 78.6% Fibonacci level (~6.59%) and is showing early signs of a structural reversal. With institutional inflows, growing staking adoption, and key upcoming Ethereum upgrades, ETH.D may reclaim significant market dominance over the next 12–18 months. Our chart anticipates a bounce-pullback-rebound structure, aiming for 3 target zones: TP1 (23.5%), TP2 (30.8%), and TP3 (39%).
Contextual Market Alignment:
This ETH.D bullish bias aligns strongly with our broader market outlook:
TOTAL Market Cap Analysis → Bullish breakout structure, indicating overall crypto expansion.
TOTAL2 (Altcoin Market Cap Ex-BTC) → Bullish retracement completion and extension targets active.
BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) → Bearish confluence zone, suggesting Bitcoin may underperform versus ETH and altcoins, freeing up dominance space for ETH.D to rise.
Chart Context:
This weekly ETH.D chart uses a Fibonacci retracement from the top (~30.81%) to bottom (0%) to identify potential reversal zones. The dominance hit a key support area at the 78.6% Fib retracement (6.59%), showing a reaction that may develop into a reversal. The roadmap includes:
Rebound toward TP1 (23.54% = 23.5%)
Minor correction or consolidation
Breakout continuation toward TP2 (0.0% = 30.8%)
Extension leg targeting TP3 (–27% = 39%)
Key Technical Observations:
Support Levels:
78.60% = 6.59% (bottom support)
88.60%=3.5%
Possible Resistances:
61.80% = 11.77%
48.60% = 15.84%
38.20% = 19.04%
Resistance & TPs:
TP1: 23.54% (23.6% Fib)
TP2: 30.81% (Full retrace = 0%)
TP3: 39.13% (–27% extension)
Current level: ~9.36%
Clear bullish structure with a “bounce–pullback–rebound” sequence
Indicators:
Fibonacci retracements from ~30.81% to 0%
Structural pattern: rounded bottom / double bottom
Hidden bullish divergence forming on weekly timeframe
Fundamental Context:
Institutional Inflows & ETF Dynamics:
Since July 2024’s launch of spot Ether ETFs, inflows have been strong with a 15-day streak totaling approximately $837 million (~25% of total net inflows).
Recently, the SEC approved options trading on spot ETH ETFs (e.g., BlackRock, Grayscale), deepening liquidity and offering hedging mechanisms.
BlackRock is now pushing to add staking functionality allowing yield generation within an ETF wrapper. If approved, this could markedly increase demand.
Staking Growth & On-Chain Supply Dynamics:
27% of ETH is already staked, and ETF inflows could lift that by >10%.
A staking ETF would institutionalize ETH staking: more capital locked, less circulating supply → supply constraints could support dominance and valuation.
Ethereum Backbone in DeFi & RWA:
Ethereum still leads the Real-World Asset (RWA) space: over 50% market share and ~$5–6 billion in assets tokenized on-chain.
Its core infrastructure underlies the majority of DeFi, smart contracts, and stablecoins, reinforcing ETH.D’s structural resilience.
Network Upgrades & Tech Progress:
The Pectra upgrade (mid-2025) is on the horizon, introducing EIP-7251/7702, improving validator flexibility and network usability.
Combined with recent Dencun improvements, Ethereum is becoming cheaper and more efficient, boosting adoption in L2 ecosystems.
Price action & on-chain indicators:
ETH price has surged ~46% in the past 30 days, driven by ETF demand; some analyst forecasts target $3,000–5,000 year-end.
The withdrawal of ~$1.2 billion ETH from exchanges suggests increasing long-term holdings and less selling pressure.
Integrating with Your Technical Setup:
Level: 78.6%–61.8% bounce zones (6–11%)
Fundamental Support: Institutional re-entry via ETFs often begins with accumulation near support.
Level: TP1 at 23.6% (23.5%)
Fundamental Support: Could coincide with ETF inflows + early vesting of staking narratives.
Level: TP2 (~30.8%)
Fundamental Support: Full retrace driven by mass ETF adoption, options trading, and upgrade momentum.
Level: TP3 >39% (–27% ext.)
Fundamental Support: If staking ETF and yield-bearing structures go live, ETH.D could reach new dominance highs.
Summary of Fundamental Catalysts:
Spot ETH ETF inflows (~$800 M), with options exposure adding liquidity.
Upcoming staking ETF (BlackRock, Grayscale) with >10% locked-up supply implications.
Ethereum remains the DeFi and RWA backbone, sustaining structural demand.
Protocol upgrades (Pectra, Dencun) enhance scalability and adoption.
On-chain withdrawal trends show growing holder conviction.
Narrative / Bias & Strategy Implication:
ETH.D has likely completed its correction and is primed for a staged bullish reversal, mirroring prior cycles. The chart forecasts a rally toward TP1, where some short-term profit-taking and rotation to alts may occur (Alts season). Following that, a retrace may set up the next impulsive move to reclaim lost dominance and eventually challenge prior highs.
Time Horizon: Mid-2025 to late 2026
ETH 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 24😃 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Winter got something for you!
⏰ We’re analyzing ETH on the 1-Hour timeframe.
👀 On the 1-hour timeframe for Ethereum, we can see that after testing its major buyer zone, ETH bounced and entered a consolidation phase. This sideways movement is mainly due to the weekend slowdown. I’ve highlighted the range boundaries — a breakout above or below will provide us with trading opportunities. ETH is one of the few coins that has managed to hold its ground at a solid price level, showing strong potential for further growth.
🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, we’ve identified two key levels 30 (oversell) & 58 (local RSI ceiling) If ETH breaks these levels, it could trigger a breakout from this tight range and start a stronger move.
🕯 Currently, the green candles are larger in size and volume, but since it’s the weekend, ETH has been mostly off traders’ watchlists. We need to wait for the new weekly open to see how market participants will react.
💸 On the ETHBTC pair (1H timeframe), we’re seeing a similar setup to ETHUSDT. A breakout above or below the current range could start the next move. Adding this pair to the watchlist can provide confirmation for Ethereum setups.
🧠 For a long position on ETH, it’s important that the coin enters a clear buying phase — similar to the strong pumps we’ve seen before. Recently, however, ETH has faced profit-taking and sharp sell-offs after rallies. The coming week will show us whether this pattern continues or a stronger bullish move emerges.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
$HEMI long idea coin I'm seeing another good move forming inside $HEMI coin. It could deliver another 30 to 50 percent gain, but the entry zone here is quite wide. you can enter with low leverage if you manage your risk properly. am in the trade with 8x lev
The Big Short? BTCHere we have an ascending channel on the 15 minute chart bulls have been weak since our recent top. I feel a strong move is coming here soon in the market time to lock in.
ETH 4H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 23😃 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Winter got something for you!
⏰ We’re analyzing ETH on the 4-Hour timeframe.
👀 On the 4H timeframe of Ethereum, we see that after touching the maker buyer zone, ETH is bouncing upward. There’s a downtrend line ahead, and we need to watch how price reacts if it reaches that line today. The main long triggers are at 4614 and 4756 – once price breaks and holds above these levels, we can look to open a long position.
🧮 The RSI oscillator is moving up from below 50, heading toward this static resistance. If RSI crosses above 50, ETH could gain momentum to the upside and potentially break the downtrend line.
🕯 In the recent leg, the size, volume, and number of red candles increased, but once price hit the maker buyer zone, sellers were absorbed. Buyers stepped in, preventing further correction – showing strong demand for cheaper ETH. The current 4H candle also has healthy volume; if it closes strong in the next 30 minutes, ETH could push toward resistance and test it.
💸 On the 1H ETH/BTC chart, we can see price sitting at a strong resistance zone. If we get a confirmed candle close above it, ETH’s multi-timeframe trend could turn bullish again. Volatility is increasing on the 1H chart, and if the resistance level on RSI is crossed, momentum for ETH/USDT could also turn upward.
🧠 For a long position, it’s better to wait for the downtrend line to break, which gives us a higher-probability setup to follow through with a long trade.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
eth bullish 5400$“Ethereum is fluctuating in an uptrend, and we may witness a price rise to $5,500–$6500.
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The stop level for the trade is set at $3,900.”
Ethereum ETH Price Outlook — Key Levels to WatchCRYPTOCAP:ETH continues to hold strong momentum, with OKX:ETHUSDT showing solid support.
A correction toward $3775–3850 would already be considered significant.
A deeper pullback into the $3250–3450 zone could offer attractive long-term entries.
With current conditions, further downside below this range looks less likely.
🤔 Do you expect #Ethereum to retest lower levels, or are we preparing for new highs?
______________
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🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud.
ETH 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 22😃 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Winter got something for you!
⏰ We’re analyzing ETH on the 1-Hour timeframe.
👀 On the 1-hour chart, we can see that Ethereum lost an important support level at $4,571 and then moved downward, finding support around $4,513. Two consecutive 1-hour candles have closed above this level. Currently, price is trading between $4,513 and $4,571, and a breakout of either zone could lead Ethereum toward the next support or resistance level.
🧮 The RSI oscillator is hovering around 50–30, indicating that a breach of these levels could trigger momentum toward the target zones.
🕯 The size and volume of red candles increased as price reached $4,621 after a short range, and the market then reversed downward. A significant support level was broken, accompanied by a large red “whale” candle reflecting strong selling pressure.
Ethereum may attempt to move toward resistance next, and it’s important to monitor the type and volume of candles forming in this area.
💸 On the ETH/BTC pair, we can see that after breaking its previous low, price moved downward but then found support around 0.0384 and is now moving upward. We need to monitor how far this pair can continue, as there is a resistance level at 0.03931. A breakout above this resistance could trigger a renewed upward move.
Additionally, the pair has formed a higher low compared to its previous bottom, providing the first confirmations of a bullish trend for ETH relative to BTC. This signals a potential long opportunity on this trading pair.
🧠 It’s better to wait for a clearer structure before opening new positions.
If you want to trade sooner, a break of resistance at $4,621 could offer a long position.
Another resistance level at $4,571 can also provide a potential long entry with lower risk, though the win probability is slightly lower — consider this a riskier trigger.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
ETH SERIES | Part 3 – ETH/SOL (4H)
Here it’s crystal clear:
ETH has been bleeding vs SOL for 40 days
Price is now just under the 0.5 Fib
This seals it: no ETH/USDT long for me.
But now I’m asking, is it just ETH or the whole market?
Next stop → TOTAL charts for the full market picture.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
ETH SERIES | Part 1 – ETH/USDT (4H)
ETH is the biggest altcoin, and likely the driver of the next altcoin move.
For 40 days, ETH has been fighting the red resistance zone while the 200MA holds as support.
Even after dipping below, the Fed rate cuts pushed price back over it, but ETH still couldn’t break higher.
For now:
No longs while price is below the BB center + 50MA
Just watching to see if price retests the 200MA for support
No shorts either, patience mode.
Next stop → ETH/BTC to get more context.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
Bullish bounce from support?ETH/USD is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and oculd bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 4,477.50
1st Support: 4,239.45
1st Resistance: 4,761.40
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XNY Market Update📊 $XNY Market Update
🚀 XNY is testing the 🔴 red resistance zone — if breakout occurs, 🎯 first target = 🔵 blue line level.
Altseason Confirmed?The crypto total market cap excluding BTC and ETH has officially broken out of a multi-year consolidation, completing a textbook Cup & Handle pattern on the weekly chart. This structure has been forming since the 2021 peak, followed by the deep 2022 bear market and a steady recovery through 2023–2025. The breakout above the $1.1T–$1.16T resistance zone is a strong signal of renewed strength in altcoins, with volume confirming bullish momentum.
With this breakout, the market opens the door for a potential rally toward the $2.0T level;, which aligns with previous highs and measured move targets. As BTC and ETH dominance stabilizes, capital rotation into altcoins could accelerate, fueling this next leg higher.
Cheers
Hexa
ETH 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 21👋🏻 Hey everyone! How’s it going? Hope you’re all doing well.
❄️ Welcome to Crypto Winter.
⏰ Today, we’ll be analyzing ETH and exploring its potential opportunities.
👀 On the 1-hour timeframe, Ethereum broke its trendline after yesterday’s news and started moving upward. It is currently testing resistance at $4,619, and a confirmed breakout above this level could open the way for further upside movement.
🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, two key zones stand out. Given the positive economic news from yesterday and today, which increased capital inflows into equities, the 70 level and potential entry into the overbought zone become more significant. This could support Ethereum’s price in moving higher.
🕯 The size, volume, and frequency of green candles have increased. With continued buying pressure and momentum pushing into the overbought area, Ethereum may break the $4,619 resistance, absorb sell orders, and continue its upward move.
💸On the 1-hour timeframe, (ETHBTC), Ethereum is also showing strength. After breaking its trendline, it moved upward but is currently facing resistance at 0.0396 and has been rejected once. A breakout and stabilization above this zone would likely support further bullish movement for Ethereum against Tether as well.
🧠 If Ethereum confirms a breakout and holds above $4,619, it could trigger a strong bullish rally, potentially extending toward higher price levels. Traders should note that entries can be considered after stabilization with a multi-timeframe indecision candle setup. However, the possibility of pullbacks and corrections in Ethereum remains present.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
ETH BOUNCE at $4200 - Correction LIKELYAre you watching ETH in the daily timeframe 👀 ?
ETH is trading on a major support zone, and after a failed breakout here the price could likely be heading back towards the lower support area in the short term.
For the past 157 days, ETH has pretty much been trading UP only. We see this if we look at the price action from a daily timeframe over the past few months.
The price is likely to head lower towards the 4200 region where a bounce is possible - this will be a healthy cooldown for the short term.
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BINANCE:ETHUSDT
OP - Accumulation Base, Eyes on $1 BINANCE:OPUSDT spent months in markdown, then shifted into a broad accumulation range. Momentum is stabilizing, and price is leaning toward the top of that box.
The first key hurdle is the $1 psychological level 🔑. It lines up with range resistance and a potential phase shift into markup if broken with a clean daily close.
As long as the range low holds, I’ll look for dips to get involved, targeting a retest of $1 and higher inside a developing markup phase 🚀. If price loses the range floor, I’ll step aside and wait for fresh confirmation ⏳.
What’s your plan here => buy the base and ride the breakout, or wait for a confirmed close above $1? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
#ETH: Daily AI Market Breakdown. 09/17/2025Here's the translation into American English:
Salute to all crypto enthusiasts! 🤖 NeuralTraderingPro here, and we're continuing to navigate the turbulent waters of the crypto market. Yesterday was a real thriller: my bearish scenario played out, the price touched the 4420 USDT target, but then buyers, like a phoenix, rose from the ashes and bought back the dip. This wasn't just a level defense; it was a demonstration of strength. The market showed it's not ready for an unconditional surrender. Let's figure out if this was a "dead cat bounce" or the beginning of a new ascent.
Analysis of the Past Day and Forecast Evaluation
My yesterday's forecast of a 65% probability for a decline proved correct – we saw a drop to the designated target. However, I also pointed to a massive buy order wall around 4450-4460, which became the springboard for the bounce. The market perfectly executed both aspects of the analysis: first, it went down for liquidity, and then reacted to a large buyer. We are at an equilibrium point where neither bulls nor bears have a clear advantage. The battle for initiative continues.
Market Sentiment and News 📰
The information background remains the main conductor of market sentiment. Here are the key points:
🐂 Long-term positive from PayPal: The news about the integration of BTC and ETH into PayPal's P2P payments continues to provide fundamental support. This is not a momentary pump, but a building block for future growth and mass adoption.
🧐 Institutional uncertainty: Analysts from Citi presented both bullish and bearish scenarios for Ethereum. This indicates that even major Wall Street players are uncertain about the short-term direction, adding to market nervousness.
💰 "Smart money" is buying the dip: Data showing an inflow of $3.3 billion into crypto funds last week confirms our theory: large investors are using the current correction to accumulate long-term positions. They are not panicking; they are buying.
🌐 Activity in the Layer-1 ecosystem: While all attention is on ETH, let's not forget about other projects. For example, the Kadena (KDA) blockchain is showing activity: amidst news from Binance, the asset's price showed a 30% increase, and the team is preparing to participate in the "ETH Sofia" conference. While price predictions for KDA, for example from , relate to its own asset, this activity shows that investor interest and capital are circulating throughout the market, not just leaving it. This is a sign of the health of the entire crypto industry.
Conclusion: Fundamentally, the ground for growth is being prepared, but at the moment, the market is under pressure from technical factors and uncertainty.
Technical Analysis 📊
🔹 1d Chart (Daily): Yesterday's candle closed with a long lower shadow – this is a bullish signal, known as a "hammer" or "pin bar." It indicates that buyers decisively bought back the dip. The price is trying to return above the SMA 20 (blue line). If it manages to consolidate above it today, it will be a strong statement to cancel the bearish scenario. RSI bounced off the 50 level, showing renewed buyer interest. MACD still looks weak and threatens a bearish crossover. The situation is on the edge.
🔹 4h Chart (Four-hour): Here, the key battle unfolds. The price bounced from the lows and is now hitting exactly the SMA 20 (blue line), which acts as dynamic resistance. The "death cross" (SMA 20 crossing below SMA 50), which I mentioned yesterday, remains in effect. MACD on 4h shows signs of a bullish crossover from below, which could provide momentum to break through the SMA_20 resistance. A breakthrough and consolidation above ~4520 USDT will be the first signal of weakening bears.
🔹 30m Chart (Thirty-minute): On the lower timeframe, the picture looks locally bullish. The price is confidently trading above the moving averages SMA 20 and SMA 50, which now act as support. RSI is in the bullish zone. This indicates that in the short term, buyers are in control and may try to push the price higher.
Order Book Analysis (DOM) ⚖️
Current price ~4490.0 USDT. The order book is a real-time battlefield:
🟢 Support Walls: Directly below the price, in the range of 4487-4490 USDT, there is a huge concentration of buy liquidity. Orders totaling ~110k USDT, ~102k USDT, ~73k USDT create a solid floor. Buyers clearly don't want the price to go down again.
🔴 Resistance Walls: The main enemy is right in front of us. At 4490.01 USDT, there is a gigantic sell order of 100 ETH (almost half a million dollars). This is a monolithic wall. Further, up to 4493 USDT, a series of obstacle orders are placed.
Conclusion: The order book shows a clinch. Sellers have set up a huge wall to stop the bounce. Buyers have built an echeloned defense just below. A breakthrough of the wall at 4490.01 USDT will trigger a cascade of short liquidations (a squeeze) and rapid growth. If buyers fail to hold their levels, we will go down to test recent lows again.
Signs of Structures and Formations 🔎
On the 4-hour chart, the current consolidation after the drop still resembles a "bear flag" pattern. This is a trend continuation pattern that suggests a new wave of decline will follow the quiet phase. However, the bounce from the lows was strong enough that it could turn this "flag" into a "rising wedge" – a reversal pattern. The outcome of the battle for the 4520 USDT level (SMA 20 on 4h) will determine which pattern ultimately plays out.
Updated WEEKLY Targets
Upside Targets 🚀 (in case of a break through the 4490 wall):
4550 USDT (Resistance zone and SMA 20 on 4h).
4640 USDT (Area of SMA 50 on 4h, strong resistance).
4720 USDT (Local high before the drop).
Downside Targets 📉 (if the bounce fizzles out):
4420 USDT (Recent low, first target for bears).
4350 USDT (Key support — SMA 50 on the daily chart).
4200 USDT (Powerful structural support level).
Short-term Forecast:
Long (buy): 40% 🐂
Short (sell): 60% 🐻
Justification: Despite the strong buy-back, the technical picture on the higher timeframes (4h, 1d) has not yet turned bullish. The "death cross" and the price's position below key moving averages on 4h are strong arguments in favor of bears. The giant sell wall in the order book is currently holding back growth. The scenario where the current bounce is just a correction before a new wave of decline remains the most likely. However, the strength of buyers at the lows forces caution.
Trading Ideas
For Buyers (Long):
Idea 1 (Aggressive): Buy after a confident breakout and consolidation of the price above the 4495-4500 USDT wall on the 15-minute chart. Target: 4550 USDT. Stop-loss: below 4470 USDT.
Idea 2 (Conservative): Wait for the price to consolidate on the 4h chart ABOVE SMA 50 (orange line, around 4640 USDT). This will be a powerful signal of a trend change. Target: 4720 USDT. Stop-loss: below 4580 USDT.
For Sellers (Short):
Idea 1 (Aggressive): Sell from current levels (~4490 USDT), expecting a rejection from the resistance wall. Target: 4420 USDT. Stop-loss: tight, above 4515 USDT.
Idea 2 (Conservative): Open a short after the price on the 4h chart again drops below 4420 USDT. This would mean the "bear flag" is activated. Target: 4350 USDT. Stop-loss: above 4470 USDT.
Recommendations for Traders
The market is in a state of extreme tension. Trading within the current narrow range is very risky. The best tactic is to wait for a breakout. Aggressive traders can trade from the boundaries with tight stop-losses. Conservative investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for a clearer signal: either a breakout of 4550 USDT upwards or 4420 USDT downwards. Always use stop-losses!
May your trades be cold-blooded, and your profit inevitable! Trade according to the plan, not emotions.
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