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Your Bitcoin map aheadBitcoin has, together with a good amount of stocks around the world, taken a good beating over the last months. At the moment things are not looking good. But how likely is it to continue down? What are the risks and possibilities from now on? First of all, much of the current price has already priced in both the political uncertainties and the risks of a war breakout. This in combination with the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index which is again back to "extreme fear" do open up for the possibility of a near-by bottom. On the other hand, there are some technical levels that are very relevant to keep a close eye on and to be well aware of their potential effects. Two days ago Bitcoin got rejected from the downside of the lower bullish red RSI line. This, unfortunately, is a sign of particular weakness. It's what we typically refer to as a "bearish motorway", as an RSI that struggles to break above this level is a textbook example of inherently weak momentum. And while on the RSI, this whole downturn is confirmed by the bearish blue RSI channel at which the recent futile and pathetic attempt at breaking above the upper bearish blue line was immediately shot down. So far we do have a higher high and a higher low, albeit very marginally. If the pivot bottom here were to be taken out, however, there's a near 100% certainty that we'll retest the green key support zone. And it is here things begin to look gloomy. So far we've had no less than six tests of this support zone over the last year. And as many of you may already know, per classical technical analysis any support or resistance loses in strength every time it's being tested. But not only that: each time it's being tested it also musters up additional technical strength to be released once there's a breakout. Now, given that we've had six tests already, the impact upon a break thereof could prove dire. With that said, there's little reason to expect the price to break through right away. It's far more likely that we'll see a minor price bounce upon the next support zone test, either as a type of bear flag, or as a steeper little V-shaped pump to trick any unassuming bulls that the worst is over with. The real question at hand comes if or when we in fact break through. If the aforementioned scenario were to play out then we'd push through on the very eight attempt, thus having amassed enough technical power to cause some serious damage. The level that most people will have on their radar upon such a breakout is $27 000 as it coincides both with the long-standing diagonal support as well as the EMA200 on the weekly. But this is where things face a huge chance of turning into a leveling game of poker. This area is too obvious. If one too many people identify the same levels to go long, chances are it will fail badly. That's exactly what happened in early December last year at the $53 000 area, which was made up for an impossible-to-miss support cluster of technical goodies. And what happened after that? Well, the price plummeted by almost -20% in just a couple of days. This in combination with the pent up pressure from six support touches to date would rather unlikely let Bitcoin's price stop there. Instead, we'd more likely be looking at something like this: Such turn of events would scare off even the last die-hard perma bull and cause them to curse Bitcoin. That would be THE spot to buy - one that could pave the way for a sharp V-shaped correction to initiate the primary 5th wave of the secular 5th wave. In this sense, as long as the 4th wave doesn't take out the 2nd wave top at ~$13 700 (give or take depending on what chart you use) then the 5-wave impulse would still be intact. Long term I still remain very bullish. Having said that, I neither want to part-take in shaky times like these when the momentum is weak and there's room for another further 60 percent downside. Given that this pivotal level of $13 700 holds up, chances strongly favor strong 6-figure Bitcoins before this secular cycle comes to halt. If, on the other hand, that specific level were to be taken out, you can bet your bottom dollar that we're either in for some continued and depressed sideways movements, or that the $65 000 and $68 000 peaks in fact was a first-of-its-kind primary double top. //Long Life Trading
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by LongLifeTrading
BTC - For Personal Record Premise behind this: 0.768 is normally the max pain in crypto. I don't think we will go sub 30K, but I do feel like it's been a bit too easy lately. Everyone seems too calm with this contionued downside. I do not have a fully established wavecount and this is basically a set of a REALLY aggrtessive expanded flat setup. Interested to see how this pans out. Bullish response to this will happen FAST. VERY fast. It will leave everyone who sold here in the dust.
Short
by ericisom887
9
Mega bear nest or rare WXYXZ pattern? - updateBulls did win the battle today and moved close to invalidate the bear nest and potentially make the WXYXZ pattern as complete. I am still suspect as the last wave down (off the 4653ish high) even though it is a 3 waver (Friday's low broke the 1st of Dec low), wave 3/C is too short. Normally the 3rd wave is the strongest even if it's a C wave, so having the C shorter than A would be rare, though technically still possible. Tomorrow we are likely to have a resolution. If bulls can push higher and overlap the 4653 high, then it's very likely the dip is done and we go back to ATHs. If tomorrow is red... well, bulls should be careful as long as 4653 is not overlapped. On the bear side - they wanna reject here obviously and push below 4570-4575. If they can do that, it would be a warning they are trying to step back in. Below 4535 and we are probably on our way to sub 4500 again.
TVC:SPX
by alx13
1
Mega bear nest or rare WXYXZ pattern?The market has been making lower lows and lower highs since the ATH, but what is adding to the uncertainty is the fact that all these waves have been overlapping. Now normally that doesn't happen in Elliot Waves, unless we are seeing a Diagonal pattern (either ending or leading). The other situation when waves overlap is when they are a series of 1-2 waves (nested waves) which means the move in that direction will be stronger than usual. In the current situation, we've had a series of 4 overlapping wave sequences with Friday's sequence potentially being the 5th one (if we consider the high to low a complete wave and the bounce late day as wave 2/b). Having a 4x (or 5x) nested bear wave, would mean the markets are getting ready for a melt-down of Feb-Mar 2020 proportions. The good news is that there is another option, which would only imply one more wave lower until this correction ends. The VERY rare WXYXZ pattern. The market did throw at us a few WXY pattens along this bull market to keep us guessing, but WXYXZ patterns are ULTRA rare. As in one in a few years. So that is something to keep in mind. However I do think that this time, we might actually be dealing with one. The 4x nested bear wave would imply the markets will implode and drop vertically hundreds of points, which is also pretty rare in December (which is usually bullish). Next week will be decisive as to which one plays out. Outlined below is what to watch for: 1. The bear pattern in black. And it is quite simple: it should start accelerating lower and keep going, with any bounces unable to overlap the prior lows. 2. The bull pattern in blue. This would see the market having one more wave lower (either directly or after going a bit higher on Monday). Target should be somewhere in the 4400s SPX. 4450 maybe 4430. After that we should see a bounce that overlaps the recent low at 4508. That would be the 1st sign that the bull pattern is playing out. While confirmation will come once we finally overlap one of the lower highs. Good luck and trade safe!
TVC:SPXShort
by alx13
3