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USD/ZAR Outlook: Strategic Stability vs. Structural RisksThe US Dollar to South African Rand (USD/ZAR) exchange rate remains a critical barometer for emerging market sentiment, closing recently around 17.32. While UBS forecasts "limited upside" for the pair, implying Rand resilience, strategic analysis across multiple domains reveals a complex tug-of-war between fiscal consolidation and persistent structural headwinds. Macroeconomics: The Fiscal Anchor South Africa’s 2025 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement signaled a turning point in fiscal management. The National Treasury projected a consolidated budget deficit of 4.7% of GDP, a figure better contained than earlier fears suggested. This improved discipline, driven by solid revenue collection, supports the Rand by reducing sovereign risk premiums. Furthermore, the decision to lower the inflation target to 3% demonstrates the Reserve Bank’s assertive commitment to price stability, theoretically strengthening the currency's purchasing power parity over the long term. Geopolitics and Geostrategy: The FATF Catalyst A pivotal geostrategic victory was South Africa’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in October 2025. This milestone reduces transaction costs for cross-border capital flows and reintegrates domestic financial institutions into the global high-trust network. Consequently, the risk premium embedded in the USD/ZAR exchange rate has diminished, limiting the Dollar’s upside potential. However, global trade fragmentation and protectionist policies in major trading partners (the US, China) remain latent geopolitical risks that could swiftly reverse these gains. Industry Trends and Patent Analysis: Mining Innovation The Rand’s performance is inextricably linked to the mining sector. Recent patent trends in Platinum Group Metals (PGM) extraction technologies indicate a shift toward more efficient, lower-energy recovery processes. As global demand for green hydrogen technologies—reliant on PGMs—accelerates, South African mines are positioning themselves to capitalize on this secular trend. UBS notes that the fiscal benefits of higher metal prices have yet to fully materialize, suggesting a delayed but potentially potent tailwind for the Rand heading into 2026. Cyber Resilience and Financial Infrastructure In the digital domain, the integrity of South Africa's financial infrastructure is paramount. The South African Reserve Bank’s cyber-resilience frameworks have fortified the banking sector against an escalating threat landscape, including ransomware and state-sponsored actors. This robust cyber-defense posture maintains foreign investor confidence in the JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange), preventing capital flight that would otherwise weaken the Rand. Management and Leadership: Governance of National Unity The formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) has introduced a new dynamic in public sector leadership. The shift toward "coalition management" has enforced stricter checks and balances on public spending, mirroring corporate governance best practices. This cultural shift within government departments is reducing wasteful expenditure, directly supporting the Treasury’s deficit reduction goals, and stabilizing the currency. Conclusion: Limited Upside for USD UBS tactically favors selling USD/ZAR upside, viewing the pair as capped near current levels. The confluence of fiscal discipline, geostrategic reintegration (FATF), and resilient mining exports creates a formidable defense for the Rand. Unless global risk sentiment deteriorates sharply, the structural improvements in the South African economy suggest the path of least resistance for USD/ZAR is sideways to lower.
Long
by the5erstrading
COIN bottom forming? Wave 4 changed to wave 2NASDAQ:COIN Price appears to be completing wave C of IV, a corrective pattern to the downsid,e expected to be shallow Wave 4 was invalidated due to the retracement depth becoming wave 2 of V, which actually presents a bigger target for the wave 3 move to come. Price stopped at the golden pocket reflecting its higher cap characteristics. 📈 Daily RSI has printed a confirmed bullish divergence from oversold. 👉 Continued downside has a target of the S2 pivot at $210 Safe trading
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
OKB - Demand Holding Strong… Correction on the Horizon?📉OKB is currently trading inside a broad falling channel , but price has just reacted from a major demand zone, which also aligns with the lower bound of the black channel. This confluence creates a strong oversold area where buyers typically step in. ⚔️As long as this demand zone continues to hold, we will be looking for bullish correction setups toward the upper bound of the falling channel. This would be the natural corrective wave after an extended sell-off. 🏹However, for the bulls to fully confirm control, price must break and hold above the orange high. A breakout above that structure would signal a shift in momentum and open the way for a larger trend reversal. For now, demand is holding, the channel is intact, and the market is positioned for a potential rebound… will OKB deliver the correction we’re waiting for? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
7
OKB - Entering the Oversold Zone!📉OKB has been steadily correcting within a descending channel , but the price is now approaching a massive confluence area, the intersection of the blue demand zone, lower black trendline, and the oversold region. ⚔️This area has historically acted as a strong accumulation zone, where buyers tend to step back in and drive the next impulsive wave. From here, I’ll be looking for long opportunities, ideally after a clear bullish confirmation or a break above the short-term red channel. 🏹If the bulls manage to defend this zone, we could see a strong push toward the upper bound of the black channel, around the $200 mark. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📊All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
2
Coinbase wave C underway NASDAQ:COIN Price appears to be completing wave C of IV, a corrective pattern to the downside expected to be shallow. Wave IV are often shallow ending no further than the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. This is just below the S2 pivot and High Volume Node support. 0.382 is the higher probability target for the end of the downwards move aligning with a swing below the daily 200EMA and S1 pivot. Daily RSI has room to fall. Breaking wave B would suggest a new bull move is underway.
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
COIN Much higher to comeCoinbase had a shallow pullback in wave (II) after running 10x in wave (I). Wave (II) was expected to reach the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement but was front run above the 0.5 demonstrating long term strength. R5 weekly pivot target is now $841 which is expected to be hit if we get tailwind momentum in wave (III). Price appears to be finding a bottom locally and preparing for the next leg up into price discovery. RSI has plenty of room for months of overextension in price. 🎯 Terminal target for the business cycle could see prices as high as $800 based on the weekly pivots 📈 Weekly RSI is oversold with no divergence and can remain here for months as price keeps increasing. 👉 Analysis is invalidated below wave (II), $148
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
Coinbase Bottom in, new all time high coming?NASDAQ:COIN had a deep pullback after its recent bullish move but caught a large bid by the end of the week leaving a long lower wick. It appears the bottom is in but investors should be cautious as price is below resistance major resistance High Volume Node and R1 weekly pivot. If the pullback is complete then we have a very shallow wave 2 within wave (II) and can expect much higher targets perhaps in the $1000s before the end of this business cycle. There will resistance at the upper boundary and R3 weekly pivot around $600 and a breakout above that area will signal we go higher. RSI has plenty of room for months over overextension in price. I will be looking to add a long so look out for the signal in my Trade Planning Substack. Safe trading
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
COIN Still following the plan.... nothing changedNASDAQ:COIN was expected to test the High Volume Node and channel upper boundary after its breakout as support. That happened Friday and touched it precisely during the market chaos we expect to reverse back to trend this week. Wave V is underway, wave IV completed at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and High Volume Node - a high probability area for a bottom. RSI tapped overbought but no bearish divergence. The gap has been filled and could market a reversal point lower on the macro and we should watch carefully but the trend is up for now. Safe trading
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
Exchange Rate Secrets1. What Are Exchange Rates and Why They Matter An exchange rate is simply the price of one currency in terms of another. For instance, if $1 = ₹84, that means one US dollar can buy eighty-four Indian rupees. But this number isn’t just a conversion figure — it’s a snapshot of economic power. When a country’s currency strengthens, imports become cheaper but exports turn costlier. When it weakens, exports surge but inflation might rise. Exchange rates influence: Global trade balances Investment decisions Inflation and interest rates Tourism and remittances Stock and commodity markets Understanding these hidden levers is the first step to decoding the secrets of exchange rate movements. 2. The Real Players Behind the Curtain Contrary to popular belief, exchange rates don’t move by chance. They’re often influenced — directly or indirectly — by a select few economic giants: a. Central Banks Institutions like the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Reserve Bank of India hold the real levers. They manipulate interest rates to attract or repel foreign capital. They intervene in forex markets to stabilize or deliberately weaken their currency. They issue monetary policies that send shockwaves through global markets. For example, when the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar usually strengthens — because higher returns attract global investors. b. Institutional Traders and Hedge Funds Major hedge funds trade billions in currencies daily. They anticipate policy changes and use leverage to amplify profits — creating massive short-term moves that can destabilize weaker economies. c. Governments Sometimes, governments quietly “manage” their exchange rates for strategic reasons. China, for example, has often been accused of keeping the Yuan undervalued to make its exports more competitive — a tactic dubbed “currency manipulation.” d. The Market Psychology Beyond data and policy, market sentiment — the collective emotion of traders — drives currencies. Fear of recession, geopolitical tensions, or even rumors can send exchange rates spinning faster than any spreadsheet can predict. 3. The Core Secrets Behind Currency Movements Now let’s unlock the deep, often hidden mechanisms that move currencies. These are the five pillars of exchange rate secrets: 1️⃣ Interest Rate Differentials Currencies tend to flow toward countries with higher interest rates. If India’s rates are 6% while the US offers 4%, investors may convert dollars to rupees to earn better returns. This inflow strengthens the rupee. But here’s the twist: expectations matter more than reality. Even a hint that the Fed may raise rates can trigger massive dollar inflows — long before the actual hike happens. 2️⃣ Inflation and Purchasing Power Currencies are mirrors of purchasing power. If inflation is high in one country, its money loses value faster. Low inflation, on the other hand, indicates stability and boosts confidence. This is why nations with consistent inflation control — like Switzerland and Japan — often see their currencies appreciated as “safe havens.” 3️⃣ Trade Balances Countries that export more than they import tend to have stronger currencies. Why? Because foreign buyers must purchase the exporter’s currency to pay for goods. For instance, Japan’s trade surplus has historically supported the yen. Conversely, a nation running persistent trade deficits (like the US) faces downward pressure — unless offset by investment inflows. 4️⃣ Political Stability and Global Confidence Political chaos often sends investors fleeing. A coup, election turmoil, or policy uncertainty can cause sudden devaluations. Meanwhile, stable governments with clear fiscal policies attract long-term investors — strengthening the currency. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the ruble initially collapsed. Yet, with aggressive capital controls and energy exports, it later stabilized — showcasing how government measures can rewrite currency fate. 5️⃣ Speculation and Market Manipulation The most guarded secret: exchange rates aren’t always fair reflections of fundamentals. Short-term volatility is often fueled by speculation — big money betting on future trends. Speculators can move billions in seconds, pushing prices away from equilibrium. Sometimes, their combined power even forces central banks to retreat — like in 1992’s “Black Wednesday”, when George Soros famously broke the Bank of England and earned over $1 billion in a single day. 4. The Hidden Mechanisms: Pegs, Floats, and Hybrids Every country chooses how “free” its exchange rate should be. A. Fixed (Pegged) Exchange Rate Here, the value is tied to another currency, like the US dollar. Example: Saudi Arabia pegs its riyal to the dollar to stabilize oil revenues. Advantage: predictability for trade. Disadvantage: vulnerability to external shocks. B. Floating Exchange Rate The value fluctuates based on market demand and supply. Example: The US dollar, euro, and Indian rupee are managed floats. Advantage: market-driven flexibility. Disadvantage: volatility during crises. C. Managed Float (Dirty Float) Most modern economies use this hybrid system — allowing markets to move rates but stepping in occasionally to maintain stability. These systems reveal another secret — that exchange rates are both economic tools and political weapons. 5. Currency Wars and Global Power Play When one country weakens its currency intentionally, others often retaliate — sparking a currency war. The logic is simple: a cheaper currency boosts exports and jobs. But when multiple nations do this simultaneously, it can spiral into global instability. 2010s: The US accused China and Japan of undervaluing their currencies. 2020s: Nations quietly use quantitative easing (printing money) to keep currencies weak. 2025: As emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Indonesia grow, they’re joining this silent battle — balancing competitiveness with credibility. 6. The Psychological Side of Exchange Rates Money is emotional. Exchange rates reflect not just economic numbers, but confidence. When investors “believe” in a country’s future — its leadership, innovation, and growth — its currency rises. Example: The US dollar thrives during crises — seen as a “safe haven.” The Swiss franc and Japanese yen surge when global uncertainty spikes. The Indian rupee strengthens when foreign investors see long-term growth potential. This psychological dance creates cycles — optimism, panic, correction — that drive exchange rate volatility beyond fundamentals. 7. Modern Secrets: Digital Currencies and Forex Algorithms The 21st century has introduced new players and tools that redefine how currencies behave. a. Algorithmic Trading Over 70% of forex volume now runs on algorithms — automated systems that execute trades based on millisecond data. These algorithms can amplify moves, creating sharp spikes or sudden reversals within seconds. b. Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and stablecoins have disrupted the concept of “sovereign money.” Some nations fear them; others embrace them. El Salvador adopted Bitcoin, while China banned it and launched its own digital yuan — a step toward controlling cross-border transactions. The secret here: digital currencies could one day bypass traditional exchange rates altogether. 8. The Indian Rupee in the Global Context India’s exchange rate journey is a fascinating case study: Pre-1991: A fixed regime tied to the pound, later the dollar. Post-liberalization: A managed float system with RBI intervention. Today: The rupee reflects both domestic fundamentals and global capital flows. Hidden truth? The RBI quietly smoothens volatility through buying or selling dollars — maintaining competitiveness for exports while protecting inflation targets. Future outlook: Stronger digital economy Growing exports (IT, pharma, energy) Controlled fiscal deficit All point toward a more resilient rupee in the long run — though short-term fluctuations will remain. 9. How Traders and Investors Decode Exchange Rate Secrets Smart investors don’t just watch the numbers — they watch the forces behind them. Here’s how they stay ahead: Monitor central bank statements — “forward guidance” often signals currency direction. Track bond yield differentials — a widening gap means a stronger high-yield currency. Follow geopolitical developments — sanctions, wars, or trade deals often move currencies overnight. Use Volume Profile and Market Structure — to identify institutional footprints in forex charts. Analyze capital flow data — especially FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) movements in emerging markets like India. By understanding these undercurrents, traders can align with the smart money — not against it. 10. The Future of Exchange Rates: Toward a Digital Reset Global monetary systems are entering a new era. The next decade may witness a “global currency reset”, where traditional paper currencies evolve into central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This shift could: Reduce transaction costs Increase surveillance and control Challenge the dominance of the US dollar Create new “exchange rate ecosystems” driven by technology rather than trade alone In short, the secrets of tomorrow’s exchange rates may lie not in central banks alone, but in blockchain codes and algorithmic governance. Conclusion: The Art and Science of Exchange Rates Exchange rates are far more than numbers flashing on a trading screen. They are reflections of economic strength, political will, psychological trust, and technological evolution. The secret to understanding them lies in reading between the lines — connecting data with direction, policies with perception, and numbers with narratives. As global markets evolve, those who grasp these hidden forces won’t just convert currencies — they’ll convert opportunities into fortune. Because in the end, exchange rates aren’t just about money — they’re about power. 🌍💰
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
COIN Wave III underway into all time high!Elliot Wave (III) is still underway after wave (II) completed at the weekly 200EMA. Coinbase had a huge bullish engulfing candle this week, closing price above the High Volume Node and R1 weekly pivot - a strong bullish signal! Price first tested the High Volume Node support and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, $270. Characteristic of wave 3 shallow pullbacks. Weekly RSI has reset to the channel EQ and crossing bullishly giving price room to extend upwards! Safe trading
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
COIN wave 5 Underway!NASDAQ:COIN wave 4 appears complete at the expected Fibonacci retracement 38.2 and High Volume Node support. A local channel has formed which could be a bear pennant so bulls should watch out. A breakout of this would hit resistance at $360 High Volume Node and the first take profit area from my recent trade. Clearing this Nose will confirm wave 5 is underway to new all time highs $500+ RSI is flipping bullish from oversold and the dail 200EMA continues to rise. Safe trading
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
COIN Ready for Gap Fill?NASDAQ:COIN Coinbase looks ready for move up to at least fill the gap at $359 if not make new all time highs. Daily RSI printed bullish divergence and price broke out yesterday into bullish market structure. A break above the High Volume Node resistance could see new all time highs sooner than expected! Analysis is invalidated if we drop below the swing low and that will continue my previous analysis downwards with a target of the ascending 200EMA, High Volume Node support, S1 Pivot at $282. Safe trading
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
PROVE : PROVE Find out.Hello friends🙌 ✅We have come with an analysis of the PROVE currency, which has just been listed and is in a good range. If this pattern fails, you can enter a purchase transaction in steps and with risk and capital management. We have also specified the stop loss for you and the targets are also specified... ⚠Be careful not to involve more than 1 to 2% of your capital in buying these types of currencies and be sure to manage your capital.⚠ 🔥Follow us for more signals🔥 *Trade safely with us*
Long
by TheHunters_Company
5
Trend Line Tested Twice Is AUD/USD Ready to Rally?📈 AUD/USD Market Insight – Potential Bullish Breakout Ahead? The AUD/USD pair has respected a key trend line, bouncing off it for the second time — a sign of potential strength. If the price revisits and successfully retests this trend line, we could see a bullish momentum (a pump) play out. On the flip side, if the pair maintains its current trajectory without pulling back, focus shifts to the 0.65415–0.65455 resistance zone. A clean breakout above this range could open the doors for a move higher — potentially targeting swing highs and key liquidity zones. 🚀 Watch closely — the next move could be significant. 🔎 Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research). This is not financial advice.
Long
by Peter_Wade
Why? Because liquidity is building at this support zone.🚨 GBP/JPY Traders — Don’t Get Trapped! 🚨 GBP/JPY has just touched a major support level, and on the surface, it looks like a golden buying opportunity. But here’s the catch: this is exactly where most retail traders get trapped. Why? Because liquidity is building at this support zone. Smart money knows retail traders have stop losses and pending orders sitting right below — and they’re coming for it. 🧠💰 Here’s what the market is likely to do next: 📈 Step 1: A small bullish bounce to lure retail traders in. Everyone starts thinking, “This is the reversal!” 🔄 Step 2: Boom — a sharp move down. Stop hunts. Fakeouts. Panic sells. The market dips below support, grabbing liquidity. 🚀 Step 3: Once liquidity is swept and BPR (Break Point Range) is hit, then the real move begins. This is a classic setup — trap retail, feed institutional orders, and then drive the market in the true direction. ⚠️ Don’t fall for the bait. Stay patient. Let the trap spring before you strike. 📊 Watch structure. Watch liquidity. Watch price behavior. That’s where the edge is. DYOR — Do Your Own Research. This isn’t financial advice — it’s a trader’s insight. Trade smart. Trade sharp. 💼🔥
Long
by Peter_Wade
HOOD (Robinhood) - Price Above Bollinger Band and Shooting StarsHOOD (Robinhood) stock price has been in an uptrend since May 2025. Recent fundamentals such as corporate earnings, EPS, Revenue, Acquisitions have been good in Q2 2025. However currently, HOOD price has printed 2 shooting stars above the upper bollinger band and linear regression lines (blue arrow). Potential selling and profit-taking could occur, especially if there is a significant bearish catalyst or news in the stock market. A -4% or -8% move selloff could occur over time if the price gaps up to an overextended level too fast, such as $80 to $85. Both the weekly and daily charts are starting to show bearish divergence so I am watching both the technicals and fundamentals this month.
NASDAQ:HOOD
by NoFomoCharts
2
Czech Republic: A Dividend HeavenThe Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) PSECZ:PX is characterized by a concentration of mature, dividend-paying companies, particularly in sectors such as energy, banking, and heavy industry. Unlike growth-focused exchanges in the U.S. or Asia, the Czech market offers relatively few stocks with high reinvestment or expansion trajectories. Preference for Payouts Over the past two decades, Czech listed companies have consistently distributed a significant share of profits as dividends. This reflects both limited reinvestment opportunities in a relatively saturated domestic market and a shareholder preference for cash returns. For example, CEZ and Komercni banka have maintained payout ratios above 70% in most years. Structural Support & Tax environment The Czech Republic provides a structurally supportive environment for dividend-oriented investors. One key advantage is the tax framework. Czech residents are exempt from capital gains tax if they hold an investment for more than three years. This strongly favors long-term investing. For non-residents, a 15% withholding tax on dividends applies—unless the investor resides in a country outside the EU/EEA that does not have a tax treaty or tax information exchange agreement with the Czech Republic. Key Dividend-Paying Companies CEZ (CEZ) PSECZ:CEZ Industry: Energy (Electricity generation and distribution) Dividend History (Gross per Share) / Dividend Yield (%) 2020: CZK 34 10.1% 2021: CZK 52 5.8% 2022: CZK 48 18.83% 2023: CZK 145 5.43% 2024: CZK 52 5.9% Dividend Growth: 2020 to 2021: +52.9% 2021 to 2022: -7.7% 2022 to 2023: +202% 2023 to 2024: -64.1% Komercni banka (KOMB) PSECZ:KOMB Industry: Banking and financial services Dividend History (Gross per Share) / Dividend Yield (%) 2020: CZK 23.9 3.63% 2021: CZK 99.3 10.62% 2022: CZK 60.42 9.22% 2023: CZK 82.7 11.41% 2024: CZK 91.3 10.76% Dividend Growth: 2020 to 2021: +315.6% 2021 to 2022: -39.2% 2022 to 2023: +36.9% 2023 to 2024: +10.4% Moneta Money Bank (MONET) PSECZ:MONET Industry: Banking and financial services Dividend History (Gross per Share) / Dividend Yield (%) 2020: CZK 0 (dividend suspended) 2021: CZK 3 10.67% 2022: CZK 7 10.53% 2023: CZK 8 12.82% 2024: CZK 9 8.08% Dividend Growth: 2020 to 2021: N/A 2021 to 2022: +133.3% 2022 to 2023: +14.3% 2023 to 2024: +12.5%
PSECZ:PXLong
by Tears_of_Yeltsin
CRO - Building Block!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. Let’s keep it simple! 📈 Short-Term Bullish: CRO is currently hovering around a key weekly support level. As long as the $0.07 support holds, we can look for short-term long opportunities. With bullish momentum picking up, the next target/resistance is around $0.11 (marked in blue). 🚀 Long-Term Bullish: For the bulls to fully take control and aim for the next major resistance at $0.163 (marked in red), a confirmed breakout above the $0.115 level is needed. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
7