Get started

Exness

Exness: The Convergence of Tech GiantsThe initial phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) rebound was driven by narrative and momentum; merely being associated with AI was enough to push up valuations. Now, we are entering a more mature phase where investors will demand tangible results and will penalize specific strategic missteps or unmitigated risks. Although the AI theme remains dominant, news from specific companies is now triggering significant and differentiated reactions. For example, Apple is adjusting its entire AR/VR strategy due to product-specific difficulties, while Meta is grappling with an existential regulatory battle unrelated to its AI development. This differentiation means the market is beginning to distinguish between "AI beneficiaries" and "AI players who need to prove themselves." Simply being among the "Magnificent Seven" is no longer enough; companies must now demonstrate their ability to navigate their unique challenges—be they competitive, regulatory, or operational. Therefore, the next phase of the Nasdaq 100's performance will depend on how these individual giants execute their specific strategies, making company-level analysis more critical than ever. NVIDIA's AI Empire: Solidifying the Moat or Building a House of Cards? Nvidia recently announced a strategic cooperation intent, planning to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. This investment is closely linked to the deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, aimed at supporting OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure, with the first phase using its Vera Rubin platform by 2026. This is not just an investment; it's a self-reinforcing business cycle. Nvidia provides funding to OpenAI, and OpenAI then uses these funds to purchase Nvidia's core products (GPUs, networking systems), thereby effectively securing a large and long-term order channel, injecting strong momentum into both parties' revenue growth. However, this arrangement has also drawn critical perspectives, arguing that it constitutes "The Infinite Money Glitch." Analysts have compared it to Cisco Systems' practices during the dot-com bubble, when Cisco provided funding to telecom companies to purchase its routers, a strategy that amplified the subsequent market collapse. The risk is that Nvidia may be artificially inflating its own demand, which would make it very vulnerable if the AI capital expenditure boom slows down or OpenAI's business model encounters problems. This investment can also be seen as a defensive move, aimed at preventing OpenAI from developing its own custom chips or deepening its cooperation with competitors like Broadcom, with whom OpenAI has already signed a $10 billion order. Apple's Pragmatic Shift: From Vision to Sight Recent reports confirm that Apple is pausing its planned overhaul of the Vision Pro headset to reallocate resources and accelerate the development of AI-powered smart glasses. The logic behind this strategic shift is that the Vision Pro, launched in February 2024, has struggled to maintain sales momentum due to its high price of $3,499, physical weight, and limited content ecosystem, leading to waning consumer interest. This shift is a pragmatic admission by Apple that the path to the mass market lies in a different product form factor. According to the new roadmap, Apple is reportedly developing at least two models: a simpler display-less version (N50) that connects to the iPhone, and a more advanced version with an integrated display that directly competes with Meta's products. The development timeline is being accelerated, with a possible release as early as next year. This strategic shift is less about abandoning spatial computing and more about finding a viable mass-market vehicle to counter its "AI laggard" label and establish a new, Apple-controlled AI platform. Despite the launch of "Apple Intelligence," Apple is still widely considered to be playing catch-up in the generative AI field compared to Google and OpenAI. Meta's Ambitious: Software to hardware while defending the core. In this race, Meta is clearly in the lead. It has collaborated with Ray-Ban to launch multiple generations of smart glasses, and has introduced the $800 Ray-Ban Display, its first consumer model with a built-in screen. They are setting the pace, forcing Apple to react. However, at the same time, Meta's core advertising business is facing unprecedented and escalating legal attacks in the EU. This includes a €550 million lawsuit filed by over 80 Spanish media organizations, accusing it of unfair competition; similar lawsuits exist in France; and its "consent or pay" model faces fundamental challenges under GDPR and the Digital Services Act (DSA). Meta's aggressive push in smart glasses and the metaverse is not just a pursuit of new growth, but a strategic necessity driven by the existential threat to its underlying advertising business model. Meta's primary revenue and profit engine – personalized advertising based on user data – is facing fundamental, systemic challenges in one of its largest markets (the EU). This regulatory pressure creates a powerful incentive for it to develop new platforms (such as smart glasses operating systems) where Meta can control the ecosystem, set data collection rules, and build new, diversified revenue streams (e.g., hardware sales, AR app stores). Therefore, succeeding in this new hardware race is not only an offensive growth strategy, but also a crucial defensive move to reduce the company's reliance on a business model that is increasingly untenable from a regulatory perspective. Microsoft's Quiet Restructuring for the Future of its AI Center Microsoft has undergone a major internal reorganization to strengthen its focus on AI. This includes the appointment of Judson Althoff as CEO of the commercial business, a move explicitly aimed at allowing CEO Satya Nadella to focus on high-level technical work in AI, data center architecture, and product innovation. Meanwhile, the company has for the first time since 2018 unified its Windows engineering division under one leader, Pavan Davuluri. The clear goal is to accelerate the realization of Windows as an "Agentic OS" – an AI-driven operating system that can proactively perform tasks for users. Microsoft's strategy is fundamentally different from Apple's and Meta's. Instead of chasing new consumer hardware categories, Microsoft is doubling down on its existing enterprise and operating system strongholds, deeply integrating AI into the fabric of its core products to increase user engagement and drive consumption within its ecosystem. Recent news from Microsoft is not about novel gadgets, but about organizational structure and a long-term operating system vision. The changes in commercial leadership are to optimize the sales process for AI-enhanced enterprise services (such as Azure AI and Microsoft 365 Copilot). The changes in Windows are to redefine the core PC experience in the age of AI. This is a lower-risk, more defensive strategy. They are not trying to create a new market from scratch, but rather are using AI to fortify their existing multi-trillion-dollar enterprise and consumer software moats. The measure of Microsoft's success will not be hardware sales units, but rather Azure consumption growth, Copilot subscription numbers, and increased enterprise license value. USTEC reached the 100% Fibonacci Extension at around 24955 before retracing. The index awaits a potential breakout from the range of 24800-24955. If USTEC breaks above 24955, the index may test the 161% Fibonacci Extension at around 25265. Conversely, returning below 24700-24800 may lead to a retest of EMA21 and the channel’s lower bound. Combining the above analysis, the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index will be the ultimate resultant force of these competing powers. This ecosystem is interconnected: Nvidia's ability to execute its large-scale infrastructure construction is the foundation for the AI ambitions of companies like Microsoft and Meta. The success of Apple's and Meta's hardware battle will define the next major consumer computing platform and create new ecosystems. Microsoft's solid position in the enterprise sector provides a stabilizing force, while Meta's regulatory battles in Europe remain the most significant idiosyncratic risk facing a major component of the index. This is not a prediction, but a guide to what matters most in the coming quarters: For Nvidia: Track gross margins for its Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin platforms and any comments on pricing power. Watch for any official regulatory investigations initiated by the US or EU regarding its partnership with OpenAI and its ecosystem impact. For Apple and Meta: Sales data in the first 6-12 months after the launch of any new smart glasses, and more importantly, user engagement metrics will be crucial. The quality and capability of Apple's revamped Siri (Project Linwood) upon full release will be a key leading indicator of its AI competitiveness. For Meta (EU): Rulings in media lawsuits in Spain and France will be key (the trial in Spain is scheduled for October 2025). Any decision invalidating the "consent or pay" model would force a fundamental restructuring of its European operations and could have significant financial implications. For the Macro Environment: Monthly non-farm payroll reports are key data points. A sustained trend below expectation would significantly increase the probability of a recession and could outweigh the positive sentiment from potential interest rate cuts, shifting market focus from valuation support to fundamental earnings risk. By Eric Chia, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:USTEC
by WiseLeoTrading
Exness: Japanese Yen Hawkish Shift Intertwined with Fed Rate CutExness: Japanese Yen Hawkish Shift Intertwined with Fed Rate Cut Expectations: What Lies Ahead? The signals from the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on September 18-19 mark a potential turning point. Although the decision was made to keep the policy interest rate at 0.5% with a 7-2 vote, the internal details revealed growing hawkish pressure. Policy board members Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura voted against maintaining the interest rate, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point hike to 0.75%. This is the first dissenting vote since Governor Kazuo Ueda took office, clearly indicating a growing call for tighter policy within the central bank. Even more surprisingly, the Bank of Japan simultaneously announced that it would begin preparations to sell its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs). Although the planned pace of sales is relatively modest, this is seen as a substantive step towards policy normalization, with its signaling significance far outweighing its actual market impact. The "Summary of Opinions" from the September meeting, just released today (September 30), provides decisive evidence of this hawkish shift. The document shows that there was a serious and in-depth debate within the policy board on the "possibility of a near-term rate hike." Several members believed that the conditions for another rate hike were maturing, with one opinion explicitly stating, "Given that it has been more than six months since the last rate hike, perhaps it is time to consider raising the policy interest rate again." Even Asahi Noguchi, a deliberation committee member usually considered dovish, stated in a speech on September 29 that the necessity of adjusting the policy interest rate is "greater than ever." This series of signals quickly reshaped market expectations. Currently, market pricing reflects that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on October 29-30 has surged to about 60%. In stark contrast to the Bank of Japan's increasingly firm stance, the Federal Reserve is on a clear path of easing, primarily driven by concerns about a cooling US labor market. Key inflation data released last week on September 26 further solidified this expectation. Data shows that the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (Chart 1) price index for August, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, remaining consistent with July and fully meeting market expectations. This "as expected" report is widely interpreted by the market as "non-threatening" inflation, suggesting it will not hinder the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and instead bolsters investor confidence in future rate reductions. The Tug-of-War Between Inflation and Growth The fierce debate within the Bank of Japan between hawks and doves stems from the contradictory signals sent by Japan's domestic economic data. On the one hand, persistently above-target inflation provides a reason for raising interest rates; on the other hand, recent signs of slowing growth call for the central bank to remain cautious. This tug-of-war between inflation and growth makes the Bank of Japan's decision-making path full of uncertainty. Inflation Outlook: The Hawks' Confidence Hawkish officials who support interest rate hikes primarily base their arguments on persistent inflationary pressures in Japan. The national core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Chart 2) for August, released on September 18th, rose by 2.7% year-on-year. Although this is a slowdown from July's 3.1%, it marks the 29th consecutive month that this data has been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. What is even more noteworthy is that the "Core-Core CPI", which excludes fresh food and energy and is regarded by the Bank of Japan as a measure of underlying inflation trends, remained stubbornly high at 3.3% in August. This persistent underlying price pressure is the core argument for hawkish members who believe the inflation target has been "largely achieved." In addition, the Tokyo core CPI for September (released on September 25), which is a leading indicator for national inflation, remained stable at 2.5% year-on-year, further indicating that inflationary pressures are not rapidly dissipating. Growth Outlook: Dovish Concerns However, just when the hawkish arguments seemed fully substantiated, the latest series of economic activity data released this week cast a shadow over the outlook, providing strong support for a dovish, cautious stance. Data released on September 29th and 30th showed that preliminary industrial output for August decreased by 1.2% month-on-month (Chart 3), significantly worse than the market expectation of -0.8% and also weaker than the previous figure of -0.4%. This indicates that production activities are contracting in manufacturing, a crucial pillar of the Japanese economy, possibly due to the negative impact of US tariff policies and a slowdown in global demand. At the same time, retail sales data for August, a key indicator of domestic demand, was also disappointing. This data unexpectedly fell by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant departure from market expectations of a 1.0% increase; it even saw a substantial 1.6% month-on-month decrease. This clearly indicates that Japanese household consumption power is being eroded, and domestic demand is beginning to show weakness, against a backdrop of inflation consistently higher than wage growth. In addition, the preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Chart 4) for September fell to 48.4, marking the fastest contraction in six months and further confirming the downward pressure on the economy. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is at a critical crossroads. Recent price movements show a fierce struggle between bulls and bears around important technical levels, reflecting fundamental uncertainties. USD/JPY failed to reach the key 150.00 level, then fell back below 149.00 and the EMA21. The price is still fluctuating within the 148.00-149.00 range, indicating possible consolidation. If it stays below 149.00, the price may consolidate further within the 148.00-149.00 range. Conversely, if it returns above the EMA21 and 149.00, it may retest the key 150.00 level. Integrating the above fundamental and technical analysis, a core conclusion can be drawn: the previous one-sided short-yen trading environment has ended. The market is entering a new phase that is more balanced but potentially significantly more volatile. The movement of USD/JPY is no longer dominated by a single factor, but depends on the interplay between the hawkish potential of the Bank of Japan and the dovish reality of the Federal Reserve. The short-term direction of the exchange rate will be determined by which central bank's actions (or inactions) surprise the market more. The future path will be largely determined by two key economic data releases scheduled for this week: Japan Tankan Survey (October 1): Can this report give the Bank of Japan's hawks enough confidence to act in October? US Non-Farm Payrolls (October 3): Will this data confirm the weakening of the US labor market, thereby "paving the way" for the Federal Reserve's rate cut path? The outcome of these two events will likely determine whether USD/JPY breaks key support and tests lower levels, or whether it can hold its ground here and gather strength to challenge the strong resistance area of 150 again. In any case, what is certain is that the era of one-sided yen depreciation is over, and a new phase full of strategic reassessment and uncertainty has arrived. By: Eric Chia, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
by WiseLeoTrading
1
Gold spike when the US government shutdown is loomingGold prices advanced firmly above the 3800 level, driven by escalating concerns surrounding the US government funding negotiations. A prolonged government shutdown could delay the release of key economic indicators, such as NFP and CPI, and potentially lead to a spike in unemployment from federal job losses. Conversely, the passage of a new funding agreement, ensuring continued US government operations, would likely exert significant downward pressure on gold prices. Consequently, the market anticipates heightened volatility pending the outcome of these fiscal discussions. From a technical standpoint, XAUUSD is trading above the former resistance level of 3800, which now acts as key support. An expanding divergence between the 21 and 78-period EMAs signals robust bullish momentum. Nevertheless, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 70, short-term overbought conditions may introduce headwinds for XAUUSD. By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategis at Exness
TVC:GOLDLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Gold faces pressure with data-dependent stanceGold prices increased after the Fed cut the rate by 0.25%, bringing the Fed fund rate to 4.0 - 4.25%. The dot plot showed two more cuts in 2025 by 0.5% and only a 0.25% cut in 2026 and 2027 each. The Fed also indicated the inflation risk and forecast inflation to be up to 3.1% by the end of this year. It stressed that the labor market is weakening now amid an elevated unemployment rate that has remained low. However, the gold price fell after Fed Chair Powell's speech, which emphasized a data-dependent stance and raised expectations of more aggressive action from the Fed. Markets need to observe the next labor data to evaluate how bad the labor market is, which could affect concerns over the US economy's stagflation, which could support the gold price in the medium term. Technically, the XAUUSD broke down under the EMA21 but remains above the EMA78, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. If the XAUUSD closes under 3660, it may prompt a retest of the next support at 3600. By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WiseLeoTrading
Gold hit another record highGold hit another record high due to concerns over the Fed's independence and the recent weak US labor market. Yesterday evening, the US Senate officially confirmed Stephen Miran as President Trump's new nominee to the Federal Reserve Board in an incredibly tight 48-47 vote, raising concern that he will follow the US President and draw down the Fed's independence. Meanwhile, the US labor market has recently raised concerns about the stagflation situation, which is the best environment for gold as a safe-haven asset. Although the Sahm Rule is not triggering, weak immigration could understate the unemployment number and the break event number. Elsewhere, the expectation of an accelerated Fed rate cut could dampen the US dollar, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Technically, XAUUSD surpassed the Fibonacci Extension of 2.168 and tends to test the 3.800 level. Expanding EMAs (21,78) indicate strong bullish momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Weak US labor market drive gold higherGold Price and the US CPI This week's US CPI data could drive gold prices higher through two distinct scenarios. A higher-than-expected CPI print may fuel concerns of stagflation in the US economy, an ideal environment for gold. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI could prompt the Fed to pursue further interest rate cuts, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold, but the support could be weaker than in the stagflation scenario. The current labor market remains a key headwind, with recent Non-Farm Payrolls data showing a meager gain of only 22k new jobs in Aug, while the Jun figure was revised downward. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report now indicates that the number of job openings has fallen below the number of unemployed individuals, suggesting a potential surplus of labor. This could quickly impact consumer spending, which is a primary driver of the US economy. Technical Outlook for Gold From a technical standpoint, Gold (XAUUSD) has reached another record high. The expansion of the 21 and 78 EMAs signals a continuation of the bullish momentum. A break above the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension at 3680 could see the price approach the resistance at 3820. Conversely, a retracement could lead to a retest of the EMA21 and the support level at 3580. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Analyst at Exness
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Swiss GDP weakened as expected The GDP data released today shows that Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% QoQ in 2Q2025, following a stronger expansion of 0.8% in 1Q2025. This result confirms weak growth for the Swiss economy in the latest quarter, as gains in the services sector were offset by a downturn in industrial activity and export pressures, especially related to recent US tariffs. Weak GDP growth and deflation increase the likelihood of continued dovish SNB policy. Any signs of further slowdown or persistent deflation could trigger additional easing, possibly even negative rates again. Meanwhile, the USD fell due to uncertainty about the Fed's independence, which drove the CHFUSD higher when Trump called to fire Fed Governor Cook. Technically, the pair is trading near 1.2474, with price action consolidating just above several moving averages (EMA 20/50/100/200), indicating a possible emerging bullish bias if the pair maintains above these levels Price recently broke above previous resistance at 1.2450–1.2460, pointing toward a short-term bullish trend continuation, with next resistance seen at 1.2500 and support at 1.2400. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
by WiseLeoTrading
Expectation of Fed rate cut and BoJ rate hike dampen the USDJPYDue to the recent softer US CPI print and weakening labor market data since the start of the month, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have increased. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in three rate cuts for this year, with the earliest likely to occur in September. Meanwhile, in Japan, inflation has also eased, while concerns about US demand have diminished. Japan's 2Q GDP is expected to rebound to 0.4%, avoiding a technical recession. As a result, markets anticipate the BoJ may hike rates further, which would lend additional support to the yen against the US dollar. Technically, USDJPY has formed a downtrend, characterized by lower swing low and a bearish extension of its EMAs. If USDJPY falls below the 146 support level, the currency pair could test the next support at 145. Conversely, if USD/JPY recovers above both the 21 and 78 EMAs, the price may surge toward the resistance at 149.00. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Analyst at Exness.
Short
by WiseLeoTrading
Will the US Inflation Data Drive a Breakout for USDCAD?Macro approach: - USDCAD edged higher this week amid softer Canadian labor data, boosting BoC cut odds and pre‑CPI caution that kept the USD supported as traders eyed key US inflation prints. - Canada shed 40.8k jobs in Jul while unemployment held at 6.9%, reinforcing expectations for a 17 Sep BoC cut and pressuring the loonie. With Canada's calendar light, focus shifted to the US, where Jul CPI/PPI and Retail Sales are set to steer Fed cut probabilities that sit near 85–90% for Sep, anchoring USD tone into the data. - In short, US inflation and activity data could drive USDCAD direction, while oil's resilience may cushion CAD. A softer US CPI/PPI may weigh on USD and support CAD, but it is limited (Oil trend and Sep rate cut), whereas sticky prints could extend USD firmness into the week. Technical approach: - USDCAD formed a Triple-Bottom pattern and broke the descending channel to make a swing high at around 1.3878. The price retraced and retested the support at around 1.3755 and bounced to close around EMA78. The price is captured within a tight trading range of 1.3755-1.3850, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the trend. - If USDCAD closes above both EMAs and the resistance at 1.3850, the price may retest May's resistance area at around 1.4000. - On the contrary, closing below the support at 1.3755 and the ascending channel may prompt a correction to retest the key support at 1.3567. PS: I also provide a quick view on DXY regarding US CPI data today via Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
XAU move sideways, awaiting US CPI todayGold prices declined amid the extended US-China tariff truce, yet they remain highly volatile ahead of today's US CPI data. The market anticipates the July US CPI to rise to 2.8% from May's 2.7%, with Core CPI also expected to increase to 3.0% from 2.9%. Higher inflation could reduce the odds of a Fed rate cut, strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold. Conversely, a larger-than-expected inflation increase could fuel stagflation concerns, potentially supporting gold prices. Another factor that could support gold is the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin this week in Alaska. A lack of a final agreement to end the war in Ukraine could prompt the US to increase sanctions on Russian goods, which could further exacerbate gold prices. Technically, XAUUSD is trading in a tight range, holding above the 3345 support level and below its EMAs (21, 78), suggesting a continuation of sideways movement. A breach below 3345 could see the price retest next support at 3285, while a sustained hold above this level could prompt a correction towards the 3402 resistance. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategis at Exness
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WiseLeoTrading
Pound break despite the MPC meeting is comingWhile a BoE rate cut of 0.25% is widely anticipated today, the market's focus will be on the post-meeting guidance, which could clarify the future path of monetary policy. The decision is influenced by a weakening labor market and a significant government deficit of 51 bln USD. A dovish stance could lead to a faster pace of cuts, dampening the pound. From a technical perspective, the GBPUSD pair has broken above the EMA78, signaling further potential gains. However, it is currently facing resistance at 1.33800. A break above this level could see the pair test the next resistance at 1.3440. Conversely, a failure to hold this level could lead to a fall toward the support at 1.3150. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategis at Exness
by WiseLeoTrading
BoJ keep interest rate unchanged, yen weakeningFollowing the July meeting, the BoJ maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, citing prevailing uncertainties from trade tariffs. Concurrently, the BoJ revised its inflation forecast upward to 2.7% YoY from 2.2%. The central bank's language on economic uncertainty has become less pessimistic, downgrading trade policy risks from "extremely high" to "high uncertainties remain," which signals a growing, albeit cautious, confidence in the economic outlook. In the US, the June PCE surged to 2.6% YoY, surpassing the 2.5% prev. cons. The increase was attributed to tariff impacts, with Goods prices rising 0.4% MoM, the fastest pace since January, while Services prices held steady at 0.2% MoM. The higher-than-expected US PCE data and the BoJ's decision to hold interest rates have continued to drive further appreciation of the USDJPY. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The USD/JPY pair is trading above its EMAs extensions, signaling a continuation of the bullish momentum. The price has successfully breached the ascending resistance trendline. However, the RSI is in overbought territory, suggesting that the current rally may be extended, and a potential pullback could be imminent. The pair could continue to test the resistance level at 151.367. Should it fail to break this level, a rebound could see the USD/JPY pair test the support at 149.65. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
Long
by WiseLeoTrading
Gold in Strong Resistant D1🧠 Chart Summary: Pair: XAUUSD (Gold Spot) Time Frame: H4 Market is clearly in a downtrend – you can spot those Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). Price hit a supply zone (marked in red) and instantly got rejected – clean bounce. It also touched the “Yesterday High” and then dropped – nice sign of strong resistance. Now price is heading down toward Fibonacci retracement levels (50% and 61.8%) and “Yesterday Low.” 🔻 SELL Trade Breakdown Factor Notes Trend Bearish – structure shows LH and LL Entry Zone Price rejected hard from that supply zone (red area) Candle Confirmation Bearish engulfing setup around that resistance zone Stop Loss Just above the red zone / “Yesterday High” (around 3,250–3,260) TP 1 Around 3,168 (Fibo 50%) TP 2 Around 3,121 (Fibo 61.8% + Yesterday Low) Momentum Solid bearish pressure – broke minor support, looks ready to drop 📈 SELL Plan Summary: Sell Entry: Current level or wait for a retest around 3,240–3,250 Stop Loss: Above 3,260 (above that red zone) Take Profits: TP1: 3,168 (50% fibo) TP2: 3,121 (61.8% fibo + previous day’s low)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by dodogtg
BTC/USDT Breakdown: Bearish Momentum Ahead?📉 Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4H Chart Analysis 🔻 Trend Breakdown: BTC is in a descending triangle pattern, with lower highs forming resistance. The price has broken below the trendline, indicating bearish momentum. 📊 Key Levels: 📍 EMA 200 (Red Line): 100,411.25 USDT – Acts as major resistance. 📍 Current Price: 97,815.98 USDT – Trading below the 200 EMA, confirming bearish sentiment. 📍 Support Zone: 95,000 USDT – A retest could occur before further downside. 📍 Target: 89,351.53 USDT – The chart suggests a potential drop to this level. ⚠️ Bearish Signals: ✅ Price rejected from descending resistance. ✅ Below the 200 EMA – Bearish confirmation. ✅ Breakout from the structure, signaling further downside. 💡 Conclusion: If BTC stays below the resistance zone, expect further decline toward 89,350 USDT. If bulls regain control above 100,400 USDT, trend reversal could happen. 🚨 Trade Caution: Monitor volume and price action near the key support! 🧐
Short
by MrStellanSight
NAS100USD Bullish Reversal: Gap Fill & Upside Target in Focus📢 Title: NAS100USD Bullish Reversal: Gap Fill & Upside Target in Focus 🚀 📊 Current Price Action: The latest price is 21,490.1 📈, showing a +0.29% gain (+62.3 points) ✅. The 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) 📊 is at 21,365.2, suggesting the price is slightly above this key moving average. 📌 Key Levels & Market Structure: 🔻 BOS (Break of Structure): Indicates a bearish structure break before the current recovery. 📉 GAP: There is a visible gap in the price action, which often acts as a magnet for price movements. 💰 Liquidity & Internal Liquidity (Int. LQ): Suggests areas where institutional interest may have been present. 📈 Trend & Potential Direction: The price recently bounced off the 200 EMA 🔄, indicating possible bullish momentum 📈. The ⬆️ arrow projection suggests a bullish outlook, targeting the gap fill and potentially moving higher towards 21,800 - 22,000. If price holds above 21,365, the bullish thesis remains valid ✅. 🏆 Conclusion: 🐂 Bullish Bias: Price is recovering from a break of structure (BOS) and pushing higher towards unfilled gaps 📊. 📍 Key Levels to Watch: 🛑 Support: 21,365 (200 EMA) – If it breaks below, downside risk increases ⚠️. 🚧 Resistance: 21,600 (gap area) – Price might struggle before breaking through 🚀. 💡 Trade Idea: A 📈 long position targeting 21,800+, with a stop loss below 21,365 🔥.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by MrStellanSight
EUR/GBP Bearish Momentum – Eyes on Support Zone!📊 EUR/GBP Daily Chart Analysis (28th Jan 2025) 🔹 Overview: Pair: EUR/GBP Current Price: 0.83855 📉 (-0.10%) Key Indicators: 200 EMA (Red Line): 0.84129 (Price is below the EMA, indicating bearish sentiment) Resistance Zone (🟠 Orange Box): ~0.84200 - 0.84400 Support Zone (🟢 Green Box): ~0.83200 - 0.83400 🔻 Bearish Outlook: Price recently rejected the resistance zone and started declining. It is now trading below the 200 EMA, suggesting potential further downside. Next Target: The support zone (~0.83200 - 0.83400) is likely the next major level. 📉 Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bearish Continuation ⬇️ If the price maintains momentum, it may head toward the support zone (~0.83200). A break below support could trigger further downside. 2️⃣ Bullish Rebound 🔄 If the price finds strong buying interest at support, a rebound toward the resistance (~0.84200) is possible. A breakout above 200 EMA could shift momentum back to bullish. 🎯 Trading Considerations: Short Opportunity: Below 0.83800, targeting 0.83400. Long Opportunity: If support holds around 0.83200, aiming for a move back to resistance. Breakout Watch: A move above 0.84200 could trigger bullish momentum. 🔥 Conclusion: Currently, the trend is bearish, and price action suggests further downside toward the support zone. Keep an eye on price behavior around 0.83400 for potential reactions.
by MrStellanSight
AUD/JPY At a Breaking Point – Big Move Loading!AUD/JPY is sitting at a crucial level right now. We're seeing a descending triangle pattern forming, with price getting squeezed between lower highs and key support around the 200 EMA (94.64). A breakdown below this level could trigger a sharp drop, with targets around 90 and possibly 85-87 in the coming weeks. The bearish momentum is building, and today's red candle isn't looking too promising for bulls. On the flip side, if buyers step in and push it back above 97.50, we might see a recovery towards the 100 level. But for now, the bias leans bearish unless we get a strong reversal signal. Keep an eye on that 94 level – a breakdown could mean more downside ahead. 🔻
by MrStellanSight
U.S Dollar Index (DXY) Rising Wedge Potential Reversal !!U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on a 2-day timeframe, a rising wedge pattern. Here’s a breakdown of the technical analysis: Key Observations: 1. Rising Wedge Pattern: The price has been following an upward trajectory within two converging trendlines. A rising wedge is typically a bearish reversal pattern, meaning a breakdown could lead to a decline. 2. Recent Price Action: The index has recently dropped from its recent high near 108.107 and is now trading at 107.807. This suggests that selling pressure is increasing. 3. 200 EMA Support: The 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at 104.510. This is a key support level—if the price breaks down from the wedge, it may test the 200 EMA. 4. Potential Scenarios: Bearish Breakdown: If DXY breaks below the lower wedge trendline, the index could drop toward the 104.5-105.0 level (200 EMA). A further breakdown may lead to a decline toward 102-100 levels. Bullish Continuation: If DXY bounces from current levels and reclaims the upper wedge resistance, it could push toward 110-112. However, this is less likely given the wedge structure. Conclusion: The chart suggests a potential reversal in DXY. A breakdown from the rising wedge could lead to a decline toward 104-105. If bulls regain strength, DXY may attempt to push higher, but upside is limited. Traders should watch for confirmation of a breakdown or bounce before making decisions.
TVC:DXY
by MrStellanSight
2
BITCOIN (BTC/USDT) ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT !!Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4H Analysis: Breakout Toward $110K? Key Observations: 1. Ascending Triangle Formation: BTC is forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation setup. A breakout above resistance could lead to a strong upward move. 2. Key Levels: Resistance Zone: ~$108K-$110K (highlighted in red). Support Zone: ~$104K-$105K. 200 EMA Support: Currently at $100,528, acting as a strong dynamic support. 3. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: If BTC holds above $104K and breaks resistance near $108K, it could rally toward $110K and beyond. Rejection & Retest: If BTC faces rejection, a pullback to $104K or even the 200 EMA ($100.5K) could occur before another attempt higher. Conclusion: Bullish bias remains intact as long as BTC holds above $104K. A confirmed breakout above $108K-$110K could trigger a move toward new highs. Watch for volume confirmation on a breakout to validate the uptrend.
by MrStellanSight
Ethereum (ETH/USDT) Breakout Incoming? Eyeing $4,000 TargetEthereum (ETH/USDT) 4H Analysis: Breakout Toward $4,000? Key Observations: 1. Potential Double Bottom Formation: ETH appears to be forming a double bottom near the $3,000 support level, indicating a potential bullish reversal. 2. 200 EMA Resistance: The 200 EMA ($3,324) is acting as resistance. A clear breakout above this level could confirm bullish momentum. 3. RSI Indicates Momentum Shift: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.85, trending upward, suggesting increasing buying pressure but not yet overbought. 4. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: If ETH breaks and holds above $3,324, the next target could be around $4,000. Rejection & Retest: If ETH faces rejection at $3,324, it may retest $3,000 before another attempt higher. Conclusion: ETH is showing bullish potential, especially if it clears $3,324 resistance. A confirmed breakout could trigger a strong rally toward $3,800-$4,000. Traders should watch for volume confirmation to validate the move.
by MrStellanSight
EUR/JPY 4H Chart Analysis – Gap Fill Incoming?EUR/JPY 4H Chart Analysis 🏆📊 🚀 Current Price: 162.308 📍 200 EMA: 162.099 (Dynamic Support) 🔥 Key Levels & Insights: 🟥 Major Support Zone (Red Area - 162.000) ✅ Price recently bounced off this level, showing strong buying pressure. ✅ If price holds above 162.000, a bullish continuation is likely. 📈 Gap Zone (Orange - 163.000 - 163.500) 🔍 There’s a price imbalance above, meaning price could be drawn towards it. 🔼 Gaps act as magnets! A move up to fill the gap is likely. 📊 200 EMA (162.099) - Crucial Level 🚦 Price is hovering above the 200 EMA. If it remains above, we can expect further bullish momentum. 🔮 Price Prediction & Trade Idea 📌 If price breaks and holds above 162.500, expect a 🚀 move towards 163.500. 📌 Rejection from 163.500 could bring a pullback 📉 back to 162.500. 🚨 Risk Alert: 🔻 If price drops below 162.000, bears might take control, pushing it to 161.500 or lower. 💡 Final Thoughts: 👉 Bulls 🐂 need to break 162.500 to push towards 163.500. 👉 Bears 🐻 will gain control if price loses 162.000. 🔥 Verdict: ✅ Bullish Bias if price stays above 162.000. 🚀 Target: 163.500 (Gap Fill). 🔻 Invalidation: Below 162.000.
by MrStellanSight
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Symmetrical Triangle Analysis: Next move?Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4H Chart Analysis Key Observations: 1. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern: The chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation, characterized by converging trendlines. This pattern typically signals a breakout, but the direction (up or down) depends on market momentum. 2. Current Price Action: BTC is trading around $102,979.98 at the time of the chart. It is above the 200 EMA ($100,003.64), indicating bullish strength. The price recently bounced off support and is moving towards resistance. 3. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: Around $97,785.55 (blue line). Resistance: Around $109,636.60 (blue line). 4. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: If BTC breaks above the upper trendline, it may rally towards $109,636.60 or higher. A confirmed breakout could push BTC to $112,500+. Bearish Breakdown: If BTC rejects at resistance and breaks downward, it could retest the $100,000 level or lower. A breakdown could target $97,785.55 or even $95,000. Final Thoughts: Watch for a breakout or breakdown from the triangle pattern. Volume is crucial—a high-volume breakout confirms strength, while low volume can indicate a fakeout. If BTC stays above $100,000 (200 EMA support), the bullish bias remains intact.
by MrStellanSight
1
XAUUSD Analysis: Potential Bearish Pullback Towards Key Support📉 XAUUSD Daily Analysis 🔍 🚨 Potential for a Bearish Pullback 🚨 Gold (XAUUSD) is showing signs of a potential downward move after rejecting a key resistance level. If this momentum continues, we could see the price heading towards the support zone at 2680/2670. 💡 Key Insights: 📌 Market rejection at resistance = possible bearish momentum. 📌 Target support area: 2680/2670. 📌 Risk Management: Stick to 1-2% risk on trades. ⚠️ Historical Note: When the market last hit an all-time high, it saw a sharp one-day drop. Stay cautious! 💬 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk effectively.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrStellanSight
11