This is NOT Bullish for the Stock Market!This week The Fed lowered rates and everyone was "SURE" that this would lead to a huge market yeet in stocks and Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD ... but are we getting it?
Price closed the week with an attempt to break higher on the S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! BUT closed BACK INSIDE the prior All Time High. THIS is a key sign of a potential reversal. In this video I look at similar instances to demonstrate how this simple element of price action is often all one needs to correctly identify reversals whether it is Bitcoin, individual stocks, or the market as a whole!
Falsebreakout
Intel - Stop the bleeding!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Intel .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In the beginning of 2023 Intel stock retested a multi year long horizontal structure at the $26 level. Here Intel created bullish confirmation and took off, creating a crazy rally of +100% within a couple of months. Then we saw a false breakout towards the upside which was followed by an incredible sell off. At the moment Intel is retesting support so we might see a short term short covering rally.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Can we time the market? YES!There is an old, seemingly wise saying, that says "time in the market beats timing the market!" This works for people that do not want to do the work... to study repeatable patterns.
Throughout the bull market of 2024 (yes, the market is in a bull market) I have been waiting for and been asked by followers "is THIS the pullback to go long?" Generally, the answer is no and I have a reason rooted in Technical Analysis that I talk about in this video.
But eventually... the market reveals itself to us with repeating phenomenon in price action. I have posted individual videos over the last two months as this pullback has gone on in the S&P 500. When it finally reached its culmination I talked about making my yearly allocation in tax advantages accounts.
You can see these too and in this video I teach exactly how.
The Pullback Has BegunFor the first time in 2024 the US Stock Market's S&P 500 has shown TWO bearish signs at once this week.
In any given year statistically one can expect 2 or 3 corrections of -5% to -10%. It is now month 4 of 2024 and we are due.
In this video I talk about the two signs (False Breakout Monday, Break and Hold Resistance Thursday) that came together to signal the first possible pullback of 2024.
Get ready!
A Trade Example in The Nasdaq Futures Using a Simple TA ConceptThis was a really clean example of a really basic price action based set-up. On the short-lived Holy Grail trade(See my most recent live stream for a walkthrough of the holy grail trade set-up) that resulted in a false breakout, price begins to reverse and want to cross back through the established range on the 5 minute chart, as we begin tending back towards the middle of the range, we want to enter a trade, playing short term, attempting to take out the range high. I am currently working on getting my profits off the table much earlier and not being a "dick for a tick" so any time I get a trade between 2-4 R in my favor, I am taking my profits and running. I narrate all of this in this video
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
XAGUSD | New perspective Despite been on a long term bearish momentum since the beginning of the year, the breakout of the bearish trend line on the daily timeframe a couple of weeks ago opened up the possibility of a potential reversal pattern in the coming week(s). However, since the breakout of the trendline we have noticed the appearance of a consolidation phase just above the $21.000 zone which also reflects selling pressure in the last 2 weeks.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUDCAD | Perspective for the new weekAUDCAD has straddled a 6.8% price corridor since the start of the year, giving us, at first sight, a bearish bias considering the bearish trendline identified on the daily timeframe. However, the appearance of a reversal structure and breakout out of structure signal on the 4H timeframe; the possibility that price might break out of the bearish trend line the second time to set the tone for a bullish momentum in the coming week.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Beware False Breakouts! How To Spot Them...Investors should use basic Technical Analysis for powerful decision making. I see it as a challenge to demonstrate how useful knowledge of one simple pattern can be to identify price reversals. Recognizing this pattern and acting on it will save much money and headache!
Both traders and investors need to be on guard for false breakout reversals. Seeing this pattern in action can provide an excellent profit target, entry point, or prevent major drawdown!
In this video I look at examples in the Silver ETF AMEX:SLV , Spotify stock NYSE:SPOT , and Forex Euro/Dollar pair FX:EURUSD for false breakouts and what follows.
I am excited to make this video for my viewers and for Best of Us Investing!
9% RATE OF RETURN ON EUR USD BREAKOUT REVERSALThis Video analyzes the trade result of 90 Pips (a 9% Return) that was captured on the EURUSD, as the pair continued the False Consolidation Breakout Reversal that took place on the Daily Chart earlier this week. The main Technical Factors that supported this trade are analyzed using the relevant sections of my Trading Manual, so that you can know how to take advantage of similar setups in the weeks ahead.
Specifically, the video describes
1. How to Accurately Identify Consolidation Setups (Page 25)
2. Why you should always trade setups that are in sync with the Main Trend Direction (Pages 32, 33)
3. Predicting the Formation of Consolidations and Breakouts (Pages 34 to 45)
4. Rate of Return and Holding Period Requirements
5. The Discipline to Hold Trades for a Few Days
It is very important to be able to accurately identify the profitable setups provided by the Daily and 4 Hour Charts each week. Once you can do this and have the patience to hold trades for a few days, you'll be able to enjoy Rates of Returns of up to 10% Per Trade on a regular basis each month!
Duane
Swing Trading Master
Bitcoin FALSE Breakout - What it means and how to spot them...As a followup to my Tradingview idea warnings about the false breakout on the INDEX:BTCUSD weekly chart this video looks at other examples of this pattern. Be patient when price approaches major or All Time Highs. All you need is to wait for confirmation and price will tell you which way it is going! Examples: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:COST , NASDAQ:ROKU .
FCPO Identify Fake Breakout and How to Trade it?When the price is near the SnR it is where get it will get tricky...either the price want to continue the trend or reverse?
The false breakout strategy :
1. Timeframe 15min
2. Identify strong valid SnR
3. Draw the zone by pick the wick and the neck.
4. If price breakout and 2nd CS close inside the zone, it is a false breakout and entry position after 2nd CS close.
5. TP for the false breakout can be the opposite SnR.
Valid breakout strategy: Trend continuation
1. Use 15min and 1min chart for confirmation.
S&P 500 trade review - from false breakout to break downLast Friday price action still favored the story of supply absorption pending rally up to test the all time high. Narrow spread together with decreasing supply could justify this bullish scenario.
Check out the video for a complete walk through of the daily market analysis of S&P 500 futures (ES) for 17 Aug 2020 trading session. In this video, I am going to show you the market recap on the last session and potential trade reviews in the three-minutes timeframe (including entry, exit and the rationale behind). I will focus on two trades based on the false breakout (up thrust) setup to trading the breakdown. Going forward, I will cover the bias, the key levels to pay attention to, the potential setup for the US session later.
Check out my daily market analysis video on last session if you haven't in order to better relate to the market recap and the trade review.
Bias - neutral (Day trading); bullish (long term)
Key levels - Resistance: 3385–3400; Support: 3360–3365, 3320–3330, 3300, 3273, 3230
Potential setup - Look for potential long near 3360 upon a rebound.
Disclaimer: The information in this presentation is solely for educational purpose and should not be taken as investment advice.
S&P 500 plunges with a false breakout - daily market analysisS&P 500 futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) continued yesterday's selling and plunged more than 2% below 2850 as of the London session now. The price action today before the US session revealed a false breakout on S&P 500.
30 Apr 2020 recap - Yesterday session had seen an increase of supply in synchronization with the bearish price action dropping 1.3% off the top for S&P 500. The only relieve sign was the close was above support zone between 2880–2900.
The first support level at 2850 was broken during the London session. Inability to rally up above 2850 would likely to see S&P 500 to test the swing low at 2715. The next level of support is at 2635 if level 2715 is broken.
The key level is at 2850. A recovery above 2850 could hold on the long-waited correction.
Bias - down
Key levels - Resistance: 2850, 2880-2900, 2960 (swing high); Support: 2760, 2715 (swing low), 2635 (axis line)
Potential setup - A rejection off 2850–2860 should present a good chance for a short entry, with the take profit targets at 2760, 2715.


















