FDAX1! Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for FDAX1!.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 15846.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 16115 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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FDAX1!
DAX Can decline more before finding a bottomDAX had an excellent run since our buy signal two months ago (March 21) but has since formed a top and is pulling back (see chart below):
The price is below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today is testing the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since March 29. The 1D RSI is still neutral around the 50.00 mark, meaning that there is still more room left on this downside. The next technical Support is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is on a significant Support cluster as it is just above the October 01 Higher Lows trend-line.
We expect a bottom to be made at 15500, it offers a solid R/R ration for buying and that is what we will go, targeting 16300 and the previous High, which was the first target of the late March rebound.
An addition signal to help with taking the best buy entry possible, can be the 1D RSI. A Double Bottom at least (especially as close to the 37.80 Support as possible) would be ideal.
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FDAX UpdateFDAX broke out to new all time high despite the lack of any good news. Europe is acting super strange, overbought on RSI and MFI but not sure that even matters, lol.
Expecting a gap up Monday because fundamentals and indicators apparently don't matter anymore, lol. (Yes, the indicators show Europe should go down and US should gap down, but the Euros don't seem to care.)
DAX Testing its All Time High but upside may be limited!DAX had an excellent run since our previous buy signal on March 21 (see chart below) that hit its target yesterday:
The index is right now moments away from hitting the 16300 Resistance, which is the All Time High (ATH) of November 19 2021. The long-term pattern since the end of October 2022 has been a Channel Up and within it, three Megaphone patterns have guided the price to each Higher High before an eventual correction back towards its bottom. The symmetry is evident even on the +10.80% rallies that it has done three times.
The 1D RSI usually hits the 76.00 Resistance and then after a series of Lower Highs, we get the top confirmation to sell. Right now the RSI has just hit the 70.00 overbought barrier. In our opinion the upside is limited to around 16400 but as mentioned, we will only sell after we see Lower Highs forming. On the first Channel Up pull-back, it was the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that supported, on the second it was the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and this time it should be lower. Our early projection is 15500.
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DAX Monday SHORT setup. 200 points range. Market Profile/ VWAP
Hello Traders:)
I expect a morning rebound after the market opens to the red line levels. Hence, I will look for an opening of shorts with targets marked with green lines. The first level of short is the upper limit of the market profile for both Thursday and Friday. This level has been tested many times. The second level of potential short play is the upper limit of the weekly VWAP, which was tested on Thursday with a dynamic decline. Take profit first is the middle level of Thursday's Market Profile, while my second target is the bottom level of Thursday's Market Profile. I am planning to enter a small position at level 1, with a stop loss above the 2nd target. The rest of the items I include only after testing the second level. Depending on the situation, I can exit 50% after reaching target 1, or hold 100% of the position until target 2. The planned range of a potential trade - 200 points.
I wish you all a great trading week!
FDAX DailyJust noticed that FDAX daily MFI hit overbought and rolled over, I guess that's why it finally had a down day for once, lol.
Based on what happened EOD today, there are still traders expecting the Euros to pump and gap the US market up, but that might be a dangerous assumption at this point.
My 3 hr indicators are neutral for tomorrow though.
DAX First time hitting the MA50 (4h) in a monthDAX crossed under the MA50 (4h) today for the first time since Marhc 27th.
This isn't remotely close to a sell signal yet as inside this Channel Up pattern that started in November, the confirmed sell has been when the RSI (4h) crossed into the oversold region under 30.00.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the RSI (4h) is over 30.00.
2. Sell if the RSI crosses under 30.00.
Targets:
1. 16200 (progressive Higher High rise).
2. 15200 (Support belt from former Higher Low).
Tips:
1. The Golden Cross (4h) tends to confirm a rally extension but the Death Cross tends to form the bottoms.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
FDAX UpdateRSI hit overbought with MFI divergence but this could be a melt up
I think gap direction tomorrow will depend more on NFLX earnings. TSLA tomorrow afternoon. NQ is oversold but staying out until after TSLA reports I think.
For those that don;t follow me, I just use FDAX to determine gap direction for the US market, not actively trading Euro stocks. Really no idea why Europe is so bullish, NOK tanked today
DAX: 16,300 test by the end of the month.We have stated before that DAX has been trading inside a five month Channel Up, getting a comfortable buy at the bottom of the pattern. With the help of the 1D MA100, the price has been rising for the past month, trading for more than 2 weeks over the 1D MA50 as well with the 1D technicals now on deep green values (RSI = 61.499, MACD = 135.500, ADX = 52.061).
We don't see this as a top yet, first because the Channel Up upside potential extends much higher but also the 1D RSI hasn't crossed into its usual above 70.000 overbought region to start forming the top. We remain bullish (TP = 16,250), expecting to test the 16,300 market high of 2021 by the end of the month.
Prior idea:
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FDAX UpdateHit overbought on RSI and MFI this morning and rolled over. Yet another reason why I'm bearish for Monday, I might add some more puts EOD. Looks like it's just gonna do a whipsaw finish today because Friday is Ponzi 401k payday.
No numbers coming out Monday, so I'm expecting gap direction to be the same as Euro market direction
DAX: Holding the 4H MA50. Accumulating for the next rally.DAX is trading on a Rising Wedge pattern inside a Channel Up, whose 4H RSI just hit the 1 month HL trendline. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 58.718, MACD = 105.900, ADX = 38.304) hence the long term trend upwards.
As long as the 4H MA50 holds, our target remains the top of the Rising Wedge (TP = 16,100).
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FDAX UpdateIndicators are neutral, but it hasn't hit oversold yet so there's a possibility of a gap down Monday despite the bullishness in the US market today.
the US market probably wants to gap up but the Euros dictate the gap direction much like this morning. I am planning on carrying a relatively small long position over the weekend.
As I said earlier in my ES post, expecting a whipsaw finish today.
Kinda tempted to add some IWM (small cap index) to my retirement account, I think there will be a garbage stock short squeeze next week. I don't recommend investing directly into garbage like PTON or AFRM, lol. Bad news can tank an individual stock.






















