DAX (DE40) has been trading within the same Channel Up since the bottom of the Inflation Crisis on the week of October 03 2022. The recent August 05 rebound on the 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) was nothing but the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, the 3rd in total.
The previous two, following their respective Bearish Legs (dotted Channel Down), they first...
DAX hit yesterday Resistance 1 (the September 03 High) but got rejected and failed to close the candle above it. Naturally, the market is reacting with weakness today and so far a red 1D candle.
As you realize, the key here is to close that candle above Resistance 1, which is what happened in the middle of the previous Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up. After...
Last month (July 15, see chart below), we made a bold Megaphone prediction on DAX (FDAX1!), which delivered both an excellent sell opportunity and a bottom buy entry:
The situation now is more difficult as despite DAX's recovery, the U.S. markets are under a certain degree of volatility. We need to zoom out to the 1W time-frame to answer that and get a better...
DAX (FDAX1!) has been following our May 17 (see chart below) projected path very closely and as mentioned, it has been a repeat of the May - July 2023 Megaphone consolidation so far:
The price is back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and we have adjusted the Megaphone to the wider price-action that was given, in contrast to the 2023 one. As a result,...
Last time we looked at DAX (FDAX1!) it gave us another successful sell signal (May 17) at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 9-month Channel Up:
This time it is issuing a medium-term buy signal as after reaching the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 6-month Channel Up, while hitting and holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as Support, it is...
DAX (FDAX1!) gave as an excellent sell opportunity last month (April 11, see chart below) that hit the 17700 Target and shortly after rebounded:
The index yet again flashes a sell signal as the price got rejected yesterday exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up. In symmetrical terms, this is similar to the Higher High...
DAX effortlessly made a -6.50% decline from the top and hit our 17,450 TP, crossing in the meantime under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 10th 2023. Naturally its 1D technically outlook turned bearish (RSI = 41.378, MACD = 14.500, ADX = 36.627). In our view, it has or is very close to the new technical bottom as the 1D MA100 is just right under and...
DAX has a rejection on April 01 exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 18-month Channel Up (since October 03 2022). The 1D MACD made a Bearish Cross, being Lower High than the previous one on December 18 2023, which is exactly what happened on the January 27 2023 Bearish Cross.
That sequence was the first Bullish Leg that topped to form the Channel's...
DAX is almost overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 69.159, MACD = 322.400, ADX = 30.730) and heavily on the 1W (RSI = 76.198), which suggests that the long term trend is massively bullish but on the short term a pull back below the 1D MA50 is needed in order to harmonize the supply and demand equilibrium. The index has already been rejected at the top of the HH...
Situation assessment XETR:DAX
1. We have reached another trend reversal zone
2. In our opinion, “much” after “above” is no longer possible in the future
We would like to apologize for the inaccuracy of last week's forecast {wink} when we headlined as follows:
1. Weekly UP peak: between 18,406 and 18,518 (Bonus: 18,630)
2. In perspective, ...
What makes us expect a technical correction this time, is the similarity in terms of RSI with mid February 2023. It took another 3 weeks for the price to decline but not before the RSI completed a Cup and Handle pattern. That was a -8.00% decline, we are aiming from the current levels for a -6.40% decline, which happened another 2 times, so our target is near the...
DAX (DE40) is extending a very strong Bullish Leg, which started after the previous short-term correction ended on January 17 2024 with a contact on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is part of an overall Bullish Wave that emerged on the latest Higher Low (October 27 2023) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
However as the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross...
DAX is approaching the 16 month HH Zone while being vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 76.873, MACD = 201.900, ADX = 41.880). The 1D CCI shows that we may be entering a period of volatility similar to what followed after the May 19th 2023 High, which initially resulted into a -6.42% correction. Based on that, our bearish target is near the S1 level (TP =...
DAX (DE40) is on a short-term Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has held twice in the past month (January 17 and February 13). As long as it holds, we will most likely see a break of the long-term Channel Up, which in time could complete a +20.90% rise as the July 31 2023 High. In that case, we will target 17400 on the short-term.
If...
DAX hit the HH trendline on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.185, MACD = 53.000, ADX = 25.248) but a Bearish Divergence RSI. The 1D CCI is repeating the May 19th-July 31st 2023 successive peak pattern on the HH that eventually corrected first to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA200 and then under the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently, a crossing...
DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the previous declines within...
DAX (DE40) has transitioned into a Channel Down pattern following the December 14 top rejection on the Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is fast approaching as the first level of Support but we expect it downtrend to bottom lower as resembles the declines of August 2023, March 2023 and December 2022 both on price and 1D RSI terms.
All those...
DAX (DE40) gave us an excellent sell signal last time we looked into it (December 14 2023, see chart below), as the 1D MACD Bearish Cross, was our sell signal:
Our 16500 short-term target has already been hit, and we now shift our focus on the medium-term as it appears that this pull-back will most likely be extended to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at...
