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DAX This signal produced the strongest corrections since 2009.DAX (DE40) closed a green month and is about to test the 1-year Higher Highs trend-line. At the same time, its 1W RSI remains under the bearish pressure of a 1-year Lower Highs trend-line, which is a technical Bearish Divergence.
Every time a similar pattern emerged within its 17-year Channel Up since the 2009 U.S. Housing Crisis, DAX corrected aggressively by at least -24.35%. If we have a strong red 1M September candle next, there are high probabilities to get the same Sell Signal.
If repeated, a new -24.35% decline would test at least the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) at 20500, which has been intact since November 2022. Notice also that the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) has also been holding for many years (more specifically since January 2023) and held during the March 2026 pull-back. It can be used as an additional bearish confirmation signal if broken.
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DAX Can this pattern cause a 20500 correction?DAX (DE40) has been trading within a 17-year Channel Up since the bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. This pattern has had 4 major corrections (Bearish Legs), excluding the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
All of those corrections hit at least they 1M MA50 (red trend-line) before bottoming and right now we haven't hit that trend-line since late October 2022 (the longest within this pattern).
At the same time, the 1W RSI is displaying the same kind of Lower Highs Bearish Divergence as the late 2021, late 2018 and June 2011 market Tops. The minimum decline such Sell Signals caused has been -24.35%.
As a result, if this signal is confirmed again, a -24.35% correction from the recent High would certainly make contact with the 1M MA50 after 4 years. Our Target is a bit higher at 20500, as this is where the 0.5 Channel Fibonacci level is, which has also always been hit during those Bearish Legs.
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DAX Why today resembles the 2018 Bear Cycle.DAX (DE40) failed to break last month above its 2026 Resistance and make new All Time Highs (ATH) and because of that it remains under pressure.
Until it does make a new ATH, DAX's price action since Q4 2025 is very similar to the 2018 Bear Cycle. With identical 1D RSI sequences among the two fractals, both patterns started off with a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rebound that led the market to a new ATH and then a strong correction to touch exactly the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), form a 1D Death Cross and rebound.
As mentioned, we are currently on the phase below the Resistance. In 2018 that phase initiated a new prolonged decline that broke even below the 1W MA200 (black trend-line) and on a -24.45% total decline, marginally broke below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension from the 1W MA100 Low.
This time the 1W MA200 is considerably lower than the 1W MA100, so unless we see a strong crash, the index should decline more gradually towards the end of the year and potentially test the 1W MA200 above both the 1.786 Fib ext and the -24.45% 2018 measurement.
As a result, we are expecting DAX to hit at least its 1W MA100 again at 22800. If it closes a 1W candle below it, then we can see a full Bear Cycle extending all the way to the 1W MA200 at 20000.
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DAX: Strong longterm decline is starting to 20,000DAX turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.994, MACD = 86.100, ADX = 28.868) and is about to do the same on the 1W RSI too (55.554), even though it remains above the 1W MA50. Inside its multiyear Channel Up, this is a standard long term peak formation, especially when coupled with the 1W RSI LH bearish divergence. Structurally, the current peak pattern looks more similar to 2018, which ended in a -25.09% total decline. Expect a similar bearish wave to start and test the 1W MA200 minimum, TP = 20,000 on the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the pattern.
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DAX: Going much lower as long as this level holds.DAX turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.407, MACD = -1.300, ADX = 36.223) as yesterday's rebound limited some losses from the correction that started last week. That correction took place just under the R1 level, a Resistance that dropped the index another 2 times. As long as the market fails to cross it, it should technically seek the S1 level (TP1 = 23,630). A 1W close below it, can extend the correction to the level that supported March's correction, the 1W MA100. It can make contact with it on the S1 level, a double support cluster, with TP2 = 22,900.
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DAX can't avoid this Bear Cycle.DAX (DE40) is on the 2nd straight green 1M candle, having recovered the losses of March's sharp fall. Even though this is largely attributed to fundamentals and positive news on the U.S. - Iran war, the index does nothing more than following an underlying technical script that always does at the start of Bear Cycles.
Since 2009 and the end of the U.S. Housing Crisis, the market has started a multi-year Channel Up. Within that time-frame, 5 major corrections/ Bear Cycles have occurred. On the broader scale of the Channel Up, those corrections have been nothing more that long-term technical Bearish Legs for the pattern.
The shared characteristics on all of them were that they all formed an 1M MACD Bearish Cross and they all hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Three even hit the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), while just one (March 2020 was a near miss) hit the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the generational Support of the market.
In February 2026, DAX got rejected from the most overbought 1M RSI level it's been within this 17-year Channel Up. The last three long-term Bear Cycles displayed similar 1M RSI sequences and all recovered a good percent of early losses following the initial drop but then extended the long-term downtrend with more aggressive declines.
This is what DAX did in April and so far this month (May), recovering the Bear Cycle's early March losses. If the market repeats this very consistent pattern, then we should resume the downtrend and post at least a -24.35% total decline, which was the 'smallest' Bear Cycle that DAX had (2018). If it runs throughout the rest of the year, it should make contact with the 1M MA50 around 20000 and that's our minimum long-term Target on DAX.
I have to note here that if the 1M RSI hits its long-term Support Zone first, then DAX turns into a long-term buy opportunity again, regardless of the price it is on at the time.
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DAX trading exactly like the 2018, 2015 Bear Cycles.DAX (DE40) seems to have completed its April rally, which may technically be a counter-trend rally within a broader Bear Cycle. So far this price action seems identical to the 2018 and 2015 Bear Cycles, which after forming their own 1D Death Crosses (as we did this month too) and rallied to their respective 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, the initiated a second round of selling.
The Bearish Legs that followed completed -24.47% and -29.75% total declines respectively with 2018 bottoming on the 1W MA350 and 2015 on the 1W MA250 (black trend-lines). On the current chart (2026), the 1W MA250 could make contact with DAX by the time it has also completed a -24.47% decline, matching conditions from both fractals.
With similar 1W RSI sequences also, we expect DAX to reach at least the 20000 - 19300 Zone, where long-term buy positions would be technically justified again, unless the 1W RSI hits 30.00 (oversold) first, in which case the market turns into a long-term buy opportunity again regardless of the price.
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