DAX 5-month Rectangle approaching the 1D MA200. Buy Signal.DAX (DE40) has been trading sideways within a large 1D Rectangle for the past 5 months. Since the October 09 High the price has been declining on a Bearish Leg that is about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 09 2025, the bottom of the Tariff War.
Given that this is just above the bottom of the Rectangle, it constitutes a very strong Buy Signal. We have seen 4 Bullish Legs initiating on this level within this pattern and they all reached at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, our current Target on DAX is 24350.
Notice also how the 1D RSI has also entered its own Support Zone.
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FDAX1!
DAX may be at the end of a Bullish Super Cycle.DAX (DE40) has been trading within a historic 16-year Channel Up every since the March 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. This pattern has showcased very distinct technical patterns within it, characterized by an extremely high degree of symmetry.
As you can see, we have classified them into four Phases and right now DAX appears to be trading on a Phase 3. That is the phase where following a Phase 2 correction to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) of Phase 1, it enters a Bull Cycle, which supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it peaks on the 1.618 (blue) and 2.236 (black) Fibonacci extensions (of Phase 1 and 2 respectively).
According to this, the index seems to be right at the end of this 'Super Cycle' of Phases 1,2 and 3 and entering Phase 4 of the Channel Up, which (the only data set we have on this pattern) is a period of directionless and volatile trend, loosely supported by the 1M MA50 (red trend-line), which only managed to find support and rebound just before touching the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) during the March 2020 COVID crash. As a result, Phase 4 can be characterized as a true Bear Cycle, lasting 5 years before (April 2015 - March 2020).
The 1W RSI patterns of the two fractal phase groups are also identical and highly symmetrical and we are already on the 3rd Higher High, rejection and moving downwards. That is a Bearish Divergence and may explain DAX's mostly neutral price action since June 2025.
In any case, the index is possibly ending Phase 3 of this 'Super Cycle' and the next move according to the 2015 sequence is a correction to the 1M MA50. Long-term investors that don't get caught up in the daily volatility, avoid the noise and eventually enjoy the most steady returns on their investments, will most likely seek to wait patiently for this correction and buy low.
What would you be willing to do in that situation?
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DAX Bullish as long as the 1D MA50 holds.DAX (DE40) has been trading within a 1-month Channel Up and tested today its 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the 3rd time in the last 6 days.
As long as this holds, we expect a rebound targeting at least the bottom of the Resistance Zone at 24530. A break (and 1D candle close) below the 1D MA50 however, targets at least the top of the Support Zone at 23480.
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DAX, FTSE Update: Bears Regain ControlMomentum has finally come my way, which has seen bears reclaim control of the DAX and FTSE 100. And I suspect they'll retain control for a while longer. Today I update my levels and outlook for both markets.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com (part of StoneX).
DAX Triangle giving a strong Buy Signal.2.5 months ago (see chart below), we issued a buy signal on DAX (DE40), which hit our 24600 Target within 2 weeks:
This time the price finds itself at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of a 3-month Triangle. Every Bullish Leg of this pattern was confirmed after the price closed a candle above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), something the index did 2 days ago.
As a result, we turn bullish again here on DAX, targeting the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern at 24400.
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DAX Inverse Head and Shoulders target 24600!DAX (DE40) is about to complete an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, with the price currently stuck in range within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
A 4H candle closing above the 4H MA200, confirms the IH&S pattern and the bullish break-out technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, currently a little above 24600. On top of that, the break-out may be accompanied by a 1D MAD Bullish Cross, further confirmation of the bullish sentiment.
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DAX Can today's 1D MA50 test start a new rally?Last time we looked at DAX (DE40) more than 2 months ago (April 04, see chart below), we took a long-term buy on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the bottom of the 2.5-year Channel Up, targeting 25400:
The price reacted favorably, rising almost instantly, almost hitting the top of the Channel Up on June 05. Since then it got rejected and pulled back to hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today.
Based on the previous Bullish Legs of the Channel Up, this seems to be a technical correction (blue ellipse patterns) that only served as a 1D MA50 test to accumulate more buyers and extend the uptrend.
If the current Bullish Leg rises as high as the previous one (+38%), we should be expecting 25900 by the end of Q3.
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DAX Take 1 Part 2 – Reloaded but not yet good to goThe first time, we saw the DAX poke the 1/4 line.
This was followed by several attempts (distribution by the big players), and from that point on, it headed south and the DAX rolled down the hill.
Currently, it looks very similar.
I’m watching and observing the break of the trend barrier very closely, even on smaller timeframes than the daily.
The profit targets are indicated by the red arrows.
After the break of the thick white centerline, a strong retest of the CL could be in store.
My main target would then be the red centerline.
Since the markets are behaving completely irrationally, I’ll need more “breathing room” in the trade and will handle this trade using long-dated LEAP options.
...poor little guy §8-)
DAX Channel Up targeting a 24800 Higher High.DAX (DE40) has been trading within a 1-month Channel Up and appears to be repeating the first Bullish Leg of the pattern.
More specifically, it rose by +5%, similar to April 30 - May 05 and yesterday's correction resembles May 06. With also identical 1H RSI formations (Lower Highs), we expect the uptrend to be extended in a similar structure and again target the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 24800.
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DAX: 1H MA200 supporting the Channel Up. Target 24,400.DAX is on strong bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.780, MACD = 423.600, ADX = 73.133) maintaining a short term Channel Up. The last HL bottom was priced on the 1H MA200 on an oversold 1H RSI. Buy and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 24,400).
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DAX Ultimate buy signal on the 1D MA200 approaching.DAX is having a brutal sell-off, which wasn't technically unexpected as the index made a Higher High on March 06 at the top of its 2.5-year Channel Up. The 1D RSI is already oversold (below 30.00), which is the initial long-term buy signal. Out of the last 3 times the 1D RSI was oversold only on September 26 2023 it extended the downtrend. The other 2 times, it was an immediate buy signal.
The ultimate buy signal, if you want to wait for it, was last time (August 05 2024 Low) when the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) broke. The minimum rally DAX had following such a bottom was +11.73%, which gives us a short-term Target of 21900 and the maximum (but still the bad case scenario of the 3 Bullish Legs) +29.48%, which gives a long-term Target of 25400.
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DAX: Healthy Channel Up aiming at 21,350DAX is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.832, MACD = 222.700, ADX = 20.758) as it just crossed the previous Resistance of the 5 month Channel Up. This is technically the new bullish wave of the pattern which got further confirmed after Monday's bounce on the 4H MA200. Both 1D MACD wise and relative price structure, it looks much like the previous two bullish waves. The recent HH was on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, thus we're aiming for the top of the pattern (TP = 21,350) yet again.
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DAX Strong probability for a technical pull-back here.DAX (DE40) hit last week our 20000 Target, which we established 2 months ago (October 04, see chart below):
That Target was near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up that started on the week of the October 03 2022 bottom. As you can see, this pattern has topped both previous Bullish Waves on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level and after a pull-back consolidation phase (red Arc), it started the Bearish Legs that bottomed and made Higher Lows on Support 1, which was the previous Resistance level.
Having now already hit its 1.618 Fib ext, we expect DAX to pull-back a little and turn sideways as per the pattern, which we will short, targeting 19000 (Support 1). If however we see a 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) hit and immediate rebound and weekly closing above it, we will book our sell profit earlier.
Notice also the high symmetry on those Legs, between their 1W CCI fractals.
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DAX looks unwell at these highsIt's been a tough few weeks for the DAX. But if the bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart comes to fruition, things could get a worse. I also factor in price action clues on the monthly candlestick chart, which again suggests things could deteriorate further before they get better.
MS.
DAX: The 1D MA50 is holding. Expect rally.DAX is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.908, MACD = 41.600, ADX = 23.126) as the price has been basically ranging since November 6th. The dominant pattern is still a Channel Up and it has held the 1D MA50 as support on multiple attempts since October 31st, which is a clear technical signal of an upcoming rebound. The last two HH tops were priced on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension and that is our target for this month (TP = 20,150)
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DAX This week offers a great buying opportunity.DAX (DE40) has been trading within the same Channel Up since the bottom of the Inflation Crisis on the week of October 03 2022. The recent August 05 rebound on the 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) was nothing but the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, the 3rd in total.
The previous two, following their respective Bearish Legs (dotted Channel Down), they first reached a Resistance just above the previous High and after a pull-back and break-out above it, the continued for the 2nd part of the Leg.
It appears that in symmetrical terms, we are exactly there, right before the start of the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg. Interestingly enough, the 1W MACD completed a Bullish Cross just last week (been the most solid bottom confirmation in the past Legs) so if anything, the rally could be even stronger.
In any case, keeping in mind the strict Resistance offered by the Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up, our target is still 20000, which is just below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is the Fib level where both previous Higher Highs of the Channel Up were priced.
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DAX breaking above this Resistance can target 20000DAX hit yesterday Resistance 1 (the September 03 High) but got rejected and failed to close the candle above it. Naturally, the market is reacting with weakness today and so far a red 1D candle.
As you realize, the key here is to close that candle above Resistance 1, which is what happened in the middle of the previous Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up. After testing the Resistance at the time on January 29 2024, the index turned sideways for a few days, until it finally closed above it and started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg.
All this time the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting, just as it did recently on September 06. If those conditions are met, we expect another run towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (where the April 01 Higher High was priced). Our Target is slightly below it at 20000.
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DAX ahead of a mega 1W Bullish Cross.Last month (July 15, see chart below), we made a bold Megaphone prediction on DAX (FDAX1!), which delivered both an excellent sell opportunity and a bottom buy entry:
The situation now is more difficult as despite DAX's recovery, the U.S. markets are under a certain degree of volatility. We need to zoom out to the 1W time-frame to answer that and get a better understanding of the long-term trend.
The key development will be the upcoming formation of a 1W MACD Bullish Cross. It will be the first since November 20 2023, which was in fact the last time the index hit and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), forming the previous Higher Low of the 2-year Channel Up.
As a result, having already tested and rebounded earlier this month on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 9 months, we believe that the current 4-week green rally will be extended.
The last two Bullish Legs of the Channel Up initially rose by +16.74% and +23.84% before their first corrective pull-back. As a result, our Target on the medium-term is 19800 (+16.74% rise from the recent bottom).
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DAX Sell opportunity at the top of this pattern.DAX (FDAX1!) has been following our May 17 (see chart below) projected path very closely and as mentioned, it has been a repeat of the May - July 2023 Megaphone consolidation so far:
The price is back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and we have adjusted the Megaphone to the wider price-action that was given, in contrast to the 2023 one. As a result, we are expecting the index to get rejected around the top of the Megaphone and the long-term Channel Up.
That will be our next short-term sell opportunity, targeting 18000 (the June 14 Low), which by the time of the rejection should be very close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the untested long-term Support level since November 15 2023.
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DAX Medium-term buy opportunity.Last time we looked at DAX (FDAX1!) it gave us another successful sell signal (May 17) at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 9-month Channel Up:
This time it is issuing a medium-term buy signal as after reaching the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 6-month Channel Up, while hitting and holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as Support, it is sustaining an upward consolidation.
The last Higher Lows was also priced after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and supported by the 1D MA100 and the only confirmation left to form an identical pattern with that is for the 1D RSI to complete a Bullish Cross. As you can see, that has historically been a very reliable buy signal.
Our Target is 19300, which is marginally lower than the previous +8.80% Bullish Leg, but almost exactly on the Internal Higher Highs trend-line.
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DAX Another perfect sell opportunity emerges like the last one.DAX (FDAX1!) gave as an excellent sell opportunity last month (April 11, see chart below) that hit the 17700 Target and shortly after rebounded:
The index yet again flashes a sell signal as the price got rejected yesterday exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up. In symmetrical terms, this is similar to the Higher High rejection of May 19 2023, which pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1D MACD is also inside a similar Falling Wedge pattern and will confirm the sell signal once it makes a Bearish Cross. Our Target now is 18350.
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DAX: Almost on the 1D MA100. Has it bottomed?DAX effortlessly made a -6.50% decline from the top and hit our 17,450 TP, crossing in the meantime under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 10th 2023. Naturally its 1D technically outlook turned bearish (RSI = 41.378, MACD = 14.500, ADX = 36.627). In our view, it has or is very close to the new technical bottom as the 1D MA100 is just right under and the 1D RSI is inside a Channel Down bottom similar to March 20 2023. We don't expect the price to drop much lower than 17,300 next week, if it does then the ultimate long term buy entry will be on the 1D MA200. Our target by June is the HH Zone again (TP = 18,750).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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