Gold compression before expansionGold remains in a controlled accumulation phase after a strong move, holding rising lows and respecting the fair value zone near 3990. As long as buyers defend the 3985–4000 range, the setup favors a false dip and re-entry scenario with continuation higher. A clean break and hold above 4040 unlocks the first target at 4110, and extension toward 4200 remains valid on structural expansion and Fibo alignment. The market is balanced on a hinge: levels are defined, buyers present, but confirmation lies only in price reclaiming the breakout zone.
Fundamentally gold still tracks macro uncertainty. Rates, inflation expectations, dollar hesitation and US debt dynamics keep capital rotating defensively. This is one of those periods where expectations and reality diverge, and the longer the compression holds, the stronger the eventual move. Still, discipline first — price must confirm above 4040.
Bias remains bullish while above 3985. Break below opens a corrective path toward 3920–3890 before another attempt higher.
