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Fibonacci

Aussie Rally Fizzles at ResistanceThe Australian Dollar staged an impressive V-shaped recovery month with AUD/USD surging more than 9% off multi-year lows. The advance has now extended into confluent resistance at 6408/29- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the 2024 decline and the February swing high. Note that the upper parallel of the descending pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few days and further highlights the technical significance of this zone- looking for a reaction off this mark. Initial support rests with the August / April lows at 6348/62- a break / daily close below this threshold would threaten a larger setback towards the 38.2% retracement / monthly open at 6245/47 with key support steady at the 2022 low / 2025 yearly open at 6170/88 (an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached). Losses below this threshold would mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Ultimately, a topside breach / close above the 200-day moving average near ~6465 would be needed to validate a breakout of the October downtrend / suggest a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 61.8% retracement at 6550 and the November high-day close (HDC) at 6680. Bottom line: A 9% rally off multi-year lows takes AUD/USD into multi-month downtrend resistance- risk for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 6245 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 200-day moving average need to fuel the next leg of the advance. -MB
by FOREXcom
Sterling Bulls Wrestle 2024 HighsThe British Pound has rallied more than 11.1% off the yearly low with GBP/USD trading into uptrend resistance at fresh yearly highs. Building momentum divergence highlights the risk for exhaustion here and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable near-term while below this slope. Initial support rests with the objective weekly open at 1.3313 and is backed by the April opening-range high (ORH) at 1.3207. A break / close below the median-line would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered this week / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support seen at 1.3111 with broader bullish invalidation raised to the 1.30-handle. A topside breach / close above the upper parallel would expose subsequent topside objectives at the 2019 high at 1.3515 backed by the 1.36-handle and the 2022 high-day close (HDC) at 1.3705- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. The British Pound rally off the yearly lows has extended into uptrend resistance at the yearly highs on building bearish momentum divergence- mounting risk for exhaustion here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 1.32 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. -MB
by FOREXcom
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of news. What to expect?FX:XAUUSD is consolidating. Focus on 3370 - 3269. Economic data is expected tomorrow, and gold is likely to trade within the consolidation range for several days. Optimism about US trade talks with key partners boosted risk appetite and supported the dollar. The US Treasury Secretary reported progress with India, while President Trump softened his rhetoric on China, which also strengthened the dollar. At the same time, traders took a wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of US GDP data for the first quarter. If the figures turn out to be weak, gold could rise sharply as a safe-haven asset. Thus, the gold market remains sensitive to trade news and macro data, especially against the backdrop of rebalancing at the end of April. At the moment, as part of the current momentum and correction, I expect prices to recover from the 0.5 - 0.7 Fibonacci zone. Gold may test 3323-3325 before resuming its correction within the consolidation. Resistance levels: 3323, 3352, 3370 Support levels: 3290, 3270 Traders are waiting for a resolution in the tariff dispute as well as economic data due tomorrow. However, while the price is consolidating, I expect a rebound from support. BUT! If the price continues to squeeze towards any boundary, with priority to support, then the chances of a breakout from the consolidation base may increase. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
14
NZDCHF → The global bearish trend may continueFX:NZDCHF has been within a local upward wedge pattern for a long time. A breakout of support could trigger a continuation of the downtrend. After breaking through the wedge support, the currency pair is one step away from the start of the realization. The focus is on consolidation at 0.4982 - 0.4919. A breakout of support could trigger a decline in the currency pair amid a weakening NZD and a rising dollar index, which overall creates a negative backdrop for the pair. A retest of the previously broken boundary of the figure or resistance at 0.4953 is possible before the decline continues, but a consolidation of the price below 0.4918 will be a good signal for the start of the movement. Resistance levels: 0.4953, 0.4981 Support levels: 0.4918, 0.4872 Trend pressure plays an important role, as does the fact that the price is coming out of a wedge consolidation. The breakout is directed towards the main trend, and price consolidation below the key support will only confirm this. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
6
Bitcoin: Structural Patterns To WatchBy anchoring the triangle’s resistance line through 4 distinct highs and the support line through 2 unviolated major lows, we establish a structurally reliable formation. This repeated validation lends statistical weight to both boundaries. In this context, the resistance zone gains significance as a high-probability density region — a zone where price has historically reversed with consistency. The longer price remains confined within this converging structure, the more meaningful its breakout or rejection becomes, due to the underlying compression of nested cycles and volatility. This reinforces the view that the triangle, what is perceived as geometric, is in fact probabilistic corridor governing the limits of price behavior until structural tension resolves. In classical fractal systems, self-similarity means similar patterns recur across scales. Scaling laws define how measurements (e.g., time between peaks, range of swings) relate across levels. However, within a triangle (even ascending one in this case), amplitude decays as each leg becomes shorter — violating the assumption of consistent proportionality across scales. Time intervals tighten, disrupting the expected temporal rhythm. Energy dissipates into a narrower price structure — akin to an entropic bottleneck in a dynamic system. This reflects Mandelbrot’s insight: “Markets alternate between phases of tight control and sudden chaos.” These distortions suggest that fractal dimension becomes non-stationary, adapting locally as price compresses. If we take a look at fractal shapes we can see how patterns of same classification whether continuation or reversal can be distorted over big intervals of cycles. The legitimate concern at this point is to work out what will happen structure when price supposedly breaks out from any side. Since triangular formation is still unviolated, I'll use those angles to integrate fibonacci channels that would mark ends of those breakouts. Current price is circled violet and yellow due to uncertainty. If it's just a pullback (reaction to drop from ATH) then we assume bearish continuation.However, there remains a valid chance of the structure evolving into a bullish impulse. Due to this ambiguity, I’ll be watching the next 2–3 daily candles to determine whether the fractal hierarchy confirms a directional resolution.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
2
Don’t be afraid of pullbacks, we can still go long on goldFundamentals: 1. First, pay attention to the dynamics of Trump and the Federal Reserve; 2. Pay attention to whether the geopolitical conflicts escalate, including the situation between India and Pakistan, Russia and Ukraine, and the situation between the United States and Iran. Technical aspects: Compared with yesterday, although the bullish momentum is weak, it has not fallen below the support of the 3005-2995 area, and even failed to fall below 3000. In addition, as gold fluctuates and falls, there is a large amount of buying funds entering the market in the short term. In the recent short-term structure, gold has built a very obvious turning point near the 3300 area. Therefore, gold may still rebound to above 3330 before NFP. Short-term trading strategy: You can still consider continuing to go long on gold in the 3310-3300 area, TP: 3325-3335
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steffen_Schade
Harmony Gold Pulls BackHarmony Gold has been rallying this year along with precious metals, and now some traders may see an opportunity in its latest pullback. The first pattern on today’s chart is the price area around $15.50. It’s near the April 2 high and a 50 percent retracement of the rally following the March breakout. HMY probed that zone yesterday and held it. Is new support established above old highs? Second, HMY made a lower low and higher high. That kind of positive outside candle is a potentially bullish continuation pattern. Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in February and has stayed there since. Such a configuration may suggest its long-term trend is now pointing higher. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:HMY
by TradeStation