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Fibonacci Projection

Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTCPrimary Chart: Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTCUSD with Fibonacci Price Target SUMMARY: BTC continues to consolidate and chop in a tight range around $19,246 since mid-September 2022. This range is from $18,232 to $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move to the upside or downside has failed, confounding directional bears and bulls alike. A longer-term trading range has also been in effect since June 2022. This longer-term range can be identified as between December 2018 and March 2020 VWAPs—$17,929 to $25,486. Or a simple horizontal channel can be drawn at the highs and lows from June 2020 to October 2022, which gives virtually the same range. This 5-month range aligns to some extent with the recent month's price action, which has been in an even tighter range around the $19,246 level. Price could easily test the longer-term VWAP from December 2018 in the coming weeks. This VWAP lies at $17,929. Price could easily test the longer-term VWAP from June 2017 in the coming months. This VWAP coincides with the Fibonacci projection at $12,184 discussed as a viable target since summer 2022. Over the past four to five weeks (over a month), BTC has consolidated around the $19,246 level, which is a Fibonacci level of interest discussed in SquishTrade's prior BTC posts. For example, the following post (and its excerpt quoted below) analyze the specific trading range and how the breakout moves to the upside and downside have failed: "BTC has chopped above and below this $19,246 level quite a few times, forming a tight consolidation range between and $18,232 and $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move has resulted in a bear or bull trap that fails to follow through with a sharp reversal back to the opposite side of this level." Here is the chart posted previously showing the failed breakouts and breakdowns: So the longer-term VWAPs can help place price action in perspective. Like other indicators, they cannot be considered a crystal ball or guarantee. They just help show the broader price environment over a longer term, which can provide a little clarity. 1. The primary trend remains downward. The VWAP anchored to the all-time high remains sloped downward and well above the current price. The average buyer since the all-time high remains well under water. See the Orange VWAP on the Primary Chart. 2. Price remains under the March 2020 anchored VWAP (shown in pink) which is anchored to the pandemic-crash lows. This positioning is bearish. But this is somewhat offset by price trading above the December 2018 anchored VWAP (shown in green). Price is stuck between these two in a sideways range since June 2022. A breakout move to the downside remains a high risk. This sideways action in between these longer-term VWAPS is analogous to the price action in the past month (mid-September to mid-October 2022) showing chop in a range from $18,232 to $20,225. 3. Price remains above the longest anchored VWAPs from the 2017 low and the 2011 all-time low (using all available BITSTAMP data. Price could easily test either of these VWAPs in the coming months given the strength and severity of the downtrend from all-time highs. From a longer-term perspective, these VWAPs can be helpful to watch. 4. The measured move using Fibonacci projections results in a target of $12,184.72, which has been discussed in previous BTC posts. Supplementary Chart: Measured Move using Fibonacci Projections for Targets SquishTrade still thinks the $12,184.72 target is viable especially given that price has not reversed the primary downtrend since November 2021. BTC has shown some relative strength compared to other risk assets (e.g., equity indices) by trading in a chop range sideways while the other assets have plummeted in the past month. But until BTC can change the structure materially to at least an uptrend at the primary degree of trend, it remains prudent to assume the current downtrend should be favored to resume at the primary degree of trend. Note that this Fibonacci projection aligns loosely with the VWAP anchored to the June 2017 low with a value of $13,604.01.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
9
NQ - correction or turning bearish?NQ currently has an immediate resistance turned support at 12900. Near term support zone is between 12750 - 12900. 12750 is where I marked D which is a confluence of: 1. the 100% fib projection of the previous correction from A to B (projected onto C) 2. the 50% fib retracement level of the BC mini swing up As long as NQ does not go below 12750 (+/- 50), it is still within "normal" correction for now. No need to "panic" yet! p/s all bullish bets off if NQ had a close below 12700 Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Juliac
BTCUSD's Fibonacci Tea Leaves Provide Some Helpful HintsBTCUSD's Fibonacci Tea Leaves May Provide Some Helpful Levels BTC's Downtrend Since November 10, 2021 BINANCE:BTCUSDT (BTC) has been in a downtrend since its all-time high of $69,000. But it has trended higher in a fairly choppy pattern since its major low on June 18, 2022. Many debates have arisen over whether BTC and other cryptocurrencies have found a lasting bottom that will lead to another bull market. The same questions and arguments arise for equity indices, which have experienced a bear market along with cryptocurrencies. The Debate Whether BTC Has Formed a Lasting Low Many different methods—fundamental and technical—have been explored to solve the question of where BTC's price goes next and whether a rally back to all-time highs has begun or whether another series of price declines lies ahead. One fundamental method some analysts use is called on-chain analysis, but that has likely been the basis for opposing conclusions depending on the biases of the analyst. Glassnode's on-chain analysis has suggested recently that an inflection point may require the capitulation of long-term holders (HODLers). In Forbes this week, Glassnode is quoted as saying: "Bottom formation is often accompanied by shouldering an increasingly large proportion of the unrealized loss." It explained further that "for a bear market to reach an ultimate floor, the share of coins held at a loss should transfer primarily to those who are the least sensitive to price, and with the highest conviction." In any event, this article will not attempt to comment on the validity of any particular fundamental view —the fundamental view provided only for context and newsworthy information. Important Levels from Fibonacci Analysis Fibonacci ratios can be used in a variety of ways in technical analysis. Fibonacci analysis does not have any particular edge over all other forms of analysis, but instead, it is one of many tools that may offer helpful information in analyzing the price activity of a liquid security. No form of technical analysis, including Fibonacci, is infalliable, and none serves as a crystal ball that predicts every price move or wiggle. Simply put, technical analysis does not offer a photographic view of the future of price. If it did, markets could not function effectively or efficiently (unless the photographic view of the future were limited to a select few by cost or other means). But using Fibonacci ratios to analyze price may help identify both time and price areas that can be important to watch. In particular, it helps to see how price interacts with such levels. BTC's Longer-Term Fibonacci Retracement Levels Fibonacci retracements apply the Fibonacci ratios to an identifiable price move between a high and a low or between a low and a high. These ratios are applied to the distance between a selected high and low so that as price retraces a previous move, the ratios can be viewed as either support or resistance. For BTC's major retracement levels, see the horizontal levels on the primary chart above and the horizontal levels on the Supplementary Chart 1 below. The primary chart above shows the retracement levels from the all-time low ($2.22) to the all-time high ($69,000). Retracement levels tend to have greater significance when, as here, they apply over a long period of time and cover price action at the highest degree of trend. (No swing high or low has more significance than an all-time high and all-time low of a security or other asset.) Price appears to have remained stuck below the .618 retracement (R) of BTC's entire price range. This major .618 R level is the horizontal yellow line on the main chart above, and it lies at 26,359.37 . BTC broke through this key level on June 13, 2022. It had tested this level on May 12, 2022, when it held as support the same day (note the long candle shadow piercing the .618 R on May 12, 2022, and the close above this level). The fact that price has remained contained below the .618 R for almost a month and a half has bearish weight, though it's not conclusive. The importance of this level combined with the fact that another important longer-term Fibonacci level lies very near to it (a Fibonacci cluster) suggests that this area may attract price in the near term. It will be important see whether these levels repel price, or whether price can break above them. The next chart shows the Fibonacci cluster described. The .618 R level of BTC's entire range has been drawn on the chart next to the other key level, the .618 projection of the first leg in the bear market as measured from the start of the second leg. This .618 projection lies at 25,950 . Supplementary Chart 1: Fibonacci Cluster with Two Longer-Term Fibonacci Levels Shown in Yellow BTC's Fibonacci Channel Containing Price Since the All-Time High A Fibonacci channel is another approach to Fibonacci. It shows Fibonacci relationships in a more dynamic way. The zero line works as a baseline from which all other Fibonacci levels are then drawn parallel using Fibonacci proportions. The zero line contains price in much the same way as a regular uptrend or downtrend line. The primary chart above shows the Fibonacci channel for BTC's price. It has identified a significant number of support and resistance areas. The most prominent area is the diagonal .618 line which has acted as support a number of times such as in February and March 2022 and in May 2022. The .618 diagonal line also operated as resistance a few times (e.g., December 2021 and mid-January 2022). Note how the .618 diagonal line for the channel held support at the pivotal selloff on May 12, 2022, and on this date, the .618 diagonal line coincided with the .618 R ( horizontal yellow line showing BTC's .618 retracement of its entire price range). Finally, over the past 10 days, it appears that BTC's price has been working to push through the .236 diagonal line (teal). It has pushed above it slightly on several days but closed back below it: note the candle wicks piercing the line with closes below it. Today's push above the .236 diagonal line may end the same way as prior days. But if BTC holds the .236 diagonal line as support, the next level will be the zero diagonal line (blue), which was strong resistance at the end of the rally in late March 2022. Importantly, to even approach the zero diagonal line (blue), BTC's price must push through the major .618 R (horizontal yellow line) unless BTC's price consolidates or pulls back and only later tries to reach the zero diagonal line on August 19-20, 2022 . Why this date? BTC's .618 R (horizontal yellow line) coincides with the zero diagonal line (blue) on August 19-20, 2022. See the blue-filled circle on the main chart above showing where the two levels coincide. August 19, 2022 is significant date for equity indices: it is monthly options expiration, which can sometimes, though not always, serve to shift the direction of equity indices. This will be interesting to track. Tug of War Between BTC's 1.00 Projection Level at 12,173 and the Horizontal Fibonacci Cluster at 25,950 to 26,359 The Fibonacci cluster described above includes the major .618 retracement (horizontal yellow line on the main chart above) as well as the .618 projection (horizontal line shown in Supplementary Chart 1). As noted, the Fibonacci Cluster coincides with the zero diagonal line from the Fibonacci Channel on August 19-20, 2022. This Fibonacci cluster and the zero diagonal line may play tug of war with another key level at 12,173 (see green horizontal line on Supplementary Chart 1 below). This 12,173 level is the Fibonacci 1.00 projection of the first wave of the decline as measured from the start of the second wave of the decline. Each wave of the decline has been labeled on Supplementary Chart 1 below. Perhaps price will tag them both in the coming weeks. Supplementary Chart 1: Fibonacci Cluster with Two Longer-Term Fibonacci Levels Shown in Yellow Fibonacci Time Analysis with Potential Dates for Turning Points Supplementary Chart 2 below shows some Fibonacci time analyses drawn vertically with TradingView's Trend-Based Fib Time tool. The blue circles indicate where the Fibonacci proportions in time identified—or nearly identified, meaning within one to three days—a significant price move. The red circles indicate upcoming dates at Fibonacci proportions in time based on the length of time of the prior price swings. Coincidentally, consider the August 19-20, 2022 date discussed above where a horizontal .618 R of BTC's entire price range coincides with the zero diagonal line of the Fibonacci channel. This falls quite close in time to another Fibonacci time-based level: the 1.272 extension of the time span between March 28, 2022 high and the June 18, 2022 low (shown vertically in teal). Note also how other recent minor price highs in the past month were captured by this Fibonacci time-based tool. Lastly, October 29 to November 1, 2022 also appears that it might have significance. Three golden ratios (.618, 1.618, and 2.618) based on the entire price decline in terms of time, and based on the March 28-June 18, 2022 price decline, fall in this period. It may be worth watching what sort of price moves lead to this level and whether other technical evidence supports a potential reversal there. Supplementary Chart 2: Fibonacci Time Analysis BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT CME:BTC1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
BTC May Be Stalling at Symmetry ResistanceBTC May Have Stalled Right at Symmetry Resistance BTCUSD may have stalled today at symmetry resistance today. The symmetry resistance is measured using a Fibonacci-style projection (called an extension on the TV tool settings). The levels derive from projections of prior counter-trend rallies since the YTD low on June 18, 2022. The first symmetry resistance lies at 22,710.95. The second symmetry resistance lies at 23,024.65. This area is right where price stalled today and pulled back significantly. Note that these two resistance levels are green-colored Fibonacci projection lines. And these two price points are highlighted with an orange circle (blue border). In short, they project the first two corrective waves off June 18 lows from the most recent low (designated by a blue arrow). This symmetry level coincides almost exactly with the top of the parallel trading channel (bear flag) in which BTC has traded since its June 18 low. The fact that price reversed here suggests that the breakout in volatility may likely be accompanied by a resumption of the larger-degree downtrend. But price must be given a chance to retest the top trendline of the bear-flag channel as well as symmetry resistance. It may even attempt a whipsaw break (i.e., a false breakout) up to the 1.272 extension, a common target when using Fibonacci projections. Those lie at the second orange circle on the chart above: 23,746.02–24,229.36. Price doesn't have to do anything we think it should, but this merely suggests a possibility of 1.272 projections being tested before the looming breakout (described in my related post below). Volatility Compression Suggests Looming Breakout Previous posts discuss potential Fibonacci targets as well as the volatility compression that has developed in BTC's price action over the past month. This volatility compression signals a likely volatility expansion. Typically, breakouts in volatility accompany breakouts in price ranges. Although many bottom-pickers may attempt to view each new downdraft as the final low, the more reliable approach is to favor trend continuation over trend reversal as the higher-probability scenario. See, e.g., The past 7 months presents an excellent example of this concept. Those favoring trend continuation at each new low in BTC or KRAKEN:ETHUSD YTD have had much more success (protecting capital, profiting from directional trades) than those expecting major trend reversal upon each corrective rally. CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
1
NQ - Bear or correction?Despite the horrendous sell-off in the past week and all the negative news (omicron variant, bond tapering fear, persistent inflation), the fact remains that NQ's uptrend has not been breached and we are still only in "correction" (and not "bear") territory. Nasdaq is now at an intermediate support, which is: 1. a prior resistence turned support at A 2. 50% fib retracement of BC swing up 3. 100% fib projection of the previous AB swing down at C A worse case scenario for this "correction" is for NQ to retrace all the way to the rising longer term trendline (red) around 15300. Should this happen, then NQ could find more solid support here (which is also the 61.8% fib retracement of the BC swing). Even at this level. the correction would have been around 8.8%, similar to the last few major corrections we have been seeing this year. So my take is not to get too bearish at this juncture. The signs could be clearer after the next Fed meeting minutes on Dec 15. For now, I'll let the rising trendline speaks for itself. Disclaimer: TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Thank you. Do give me a thumbs up if you agree. Feel free to let me know what you think! :)
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Juliac
BTCUSD I see BTC going back to its ATH , and if price breaks above I see it heading up to the next fib level which is 75,525 ish- on this monthly fib circle. Price has reacted and respected all previous Fib Circle levels. My sell break and buy break areas are listed there. If it breaks my by break at 63993 it will go to the ATH at around 64,745.0 Here price will either break or reject back down to about 60k If price doesn't break 63,993 but instead breaks the sell break at 63662, then I predict price will retrace back down to 60k as well
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by bmoney2020
4