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Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTC

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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Primary Chart: Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTCUSD with Fibonacci Price Target

SUMMARY:
  • BTC continues to consolidate and chop in a tight range around $19,246 since mid-September 2022. This range is from $18,232 to $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move to the upside or downside has failed, confounding directional bears and bulls alike.
  • A longer-term trading range has also been in effect since June 2022. This longer-term range can be identified as between December 2018 and March 2020 VWAPs—$17,929 to $25,486. Or a simple horizontal channel can be drawn at the highs and lows from June 2020 to October 2022, which gives virtually the same range. This 5-month range aligns to some extent with the recent month's price action, which has been in an even tighter range around the $19,246 level.
  • Price could easily test the longer-term VWAP from December 2018 in the coming weeks. This VWAP lies at $17,929.
  • Price could easily test the longer-term VWAP from June 2017 in the coming months. This VWAP coincides with the Fibonacci projection at $12,184 discussed as a viable target since summer 2022.

Over the past four to five weeks (over a month), BTC has consolidated around the $19,246 level, which is a Fibonacci level of interest discussed in SquishTrade's prior BTC posts. For example, the following post (and its excerpt quoted below) analyze the specific trading range and how the breakout moves to the upside and downside have failed:


"BTC has chopped above and below this $19,246 level quite a few times, forming a tight consolidation range between and $18,232 and $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move has resulted in a bear or bull trap that fails to follow through with a sharp reversal back to the opposite side of this level."

Here is the chart posted previously showing the failed breakouts and breakdowns:

So the longer-term VWAPs can help place price action in perspective. Like other indicators, they cannot be considered a crystal ball or guarantee. They just help show the broader price environment over a longer term, which can provide a little clarity.

1. The primary trend remains downward. The VWAP anchored to the all-time high remains sloped downward and well above the current price. The average buyer since the all-time high remains well under water. See the Orange VWAP on the Primary Chart.

2. Price remains under the March 2020 anchored VWAP (shown in pink) which is anchored to the pandemic-crash lows. This positioning is bearish. But this is somewhat offset by price trading above the December 2018 anchored VWAP (shown in green). Price is stuck between these two in a sideways range since June 2022. A breakout move to the downside remains a high risk. This sideways action in between these longer-term VWAPS is analogous to the price action in the past month (mid-September to mid-October 2022) showing chop in a range from $18,232 to $20,225.

3. Price remains above the longest anchored VWAPs from the 2017 low and the 2011 all-time low (using all available BITSTAMP data. Price could easily test either of these VWAPs in the coming months given the strength and severity of the downtrend from all-time highs. From a longer-term perspective, these VWAPs can be helpful to watch.

4. The measured move using Fibonacci projections results in a target of $12,184.72, which has been discussed in previous BTC posts.
Supplementary Chart: Measured Move using Fibonacci Projections for Targets

SquishTrade still thinks the $12,184.72 target is viable especially given that price has not reversed the primary downtrend since November 2021. BTC has shown some relative strength compared to other risk assets (e.g., equity indices) by trading in a chop range sideways while the other assets have plummeted in the past month. But until BTC can change the structure materially to at least an uptrend at the primary degree of trend, it remains prudent to assume the current downtrend should be favored to resume at the primary degree of trend. Note that this Fibonacci projection aligns loosely with the VWAP anchored to the June 2017 low with a value of $13,604.01.

Comment:
Here is a chart showing the key Fibonacci retracement levels for the summer 2022 rally. This is how the $19,246 level was identified, though considering price action would also show this level to be an important level since July lows were formed.
Trade active:
First price target reached!
BTC has reached SquishTrade's first target. On October 16, Squish noted that BTC could likely test "the longer-term VWAP from December 2018 in the coming weeks. This VWAP lies at $17,929" .

SquishTrade identified two other targets: $12,184 and the 2017 anchored VWAP. At the time of this post, the 2017 VWAP was at $13,604. Now it is basically the same at $13,632.

SquishTrade thinks the bearish case has been strengthened by the false upward breakout of the trading range that ultimately failed. The current excerpt from the above post remains valid going forward:

"The $12,184.72 target is viable especially given that price has not reversed the primary downtrend since November 2021. BTC has shown some relative strength compared to other risk assets (e.g., equity indices) by trading in a chop range sideways while the other assets have plummeted in the past month. But until BTC can change the structure materially to at least an uptrend at the primary degree of trend, it remains prudent to assume the current downtrend should be favored to resume at the primary degree of trend. Note that this Fibonacci projection aligns loosely with the VWAP anchored to the June 2017 low with a value of $13,604. 01 ."

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