BTC: What to Watch Going into US FOMC Presser This Week

SquishTrade Updated   
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
The US Federal Reserve Open Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation that has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%.

The Primary Chart above shows key levels to watch going into the FOMC presser. The downtrend line in blue, which is the zero line of the Fibonacci Channel, rejected price decisively on September 13, 2022. But with an important trendline such as this one, a retest of the line is not uncommon, similar to what occurred where BTC tested this line from March 28 to April 5, 2022 repeatedly before finally resuming the downtrend. This occurred at the end of BTC's powerful bear rally in March 2022 that coincided with equity indices' rally during that time.

The area of resistance that could be tested should price rally or whipsaw higher this week is between $19,900 and $21,416. The Primary Chart uses a yellow-colored ellipsis shape to capture the strong, dynamic resistance levels of this down trendline. The Fibonacci Channel also shows the parallel diagonal lines that run at Fibonacci proportions to this downtrend line, which also should be watched for price support in the coming weeks.

The Primary Chart also shows the key Fibonacci retracements of the entire summer rally. BTC has been holding just above its .786 retracement of the mid-June to mid-August 2022 rally. This level lies at $19,246, and price has made a couple attempts to break below it, each of which has failed, suggesting more sideways chop into the FOMC's meeting.

The .618 retracement of the summer rally is at $20,521, a level that should also be watched closely. BTC struggled to get above this level in June and July with two failed breakouts. Finally, after getting above this line, BTC began declining and fell back below it after its mid-August 2022 peak. BTC attempted one more rally above it in early September 2022, but this ended up as a failed breakout, another bearish signal along with the downtrend line.

In addition to the levels shown on the Primary Chart above, the Supplementary Chart below shows shorter-term Fibonacci levels that also may become relevant this week. Considering that this decline from September 13 to September 19, 2022, may be a completed wave 1 of some larger Elliott Wave structure, it becomes important to consider the retracements as places where the current corrective wave could reverse. These levels are $19,993, $20,526 (coinciding with the other .618 retracement level shown on the Primary Chart at $20,521), $21,058, and $21,815.

Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Retracements of September 13-19 decline

Given the impact interest rates—and tightening financial conditions—have had on risk assets, it may be prudent to also watch interest rates closely. For this purpose, see the 10-year yield chart below.

Supplementary Chart B: Current Uptrend in US 10-Year Yield (TNX) and Multi-Year High Reached

The 10-year yield has shown no signs of slowing down yet. It continues to push higher, holding its short-term upward trendline from around the start of August 2022 until the present. The longer-term uptrend line has remained in effect for 2.5 years since March 2020. Note also that the 8-day EMA has held as support along with the shorter-term steep upward trendline. Until this line breaks, it is unlikely that crypto assets and equities can make substantial progress toward reversing their current bearish trend structures.

For the curious, another chart showing the correlation coefficient between BTCUSD and TNX is shown in the final chart below. This shows that for most of 2022, the relationship between BTC and interest rates has been inverse. Many probably already have known this intuitively while reading news about increasing rates to combat inflation while simultaneously witnessing bear markets across most risk assets this year. This correlation coefficient has at times reached -.64 and -.68, showing fairly high levels of inverse correlation, which means that as yields push higher, BTC has fallen lower. This level has also dropped to lower levels of inverse correlation. Currently, the coefficient is at -.49.

Supplementary Chart C: Correlation Coefficient for BTCUSD and TNX (Weekly Chart)


Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well.

This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.

Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.

DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.

Correction: Federal Open *Market* Committee
Price has been just chopping above and below the .786 R level at $19,246. No price action in the days before FOMC can be taken too seriously. The chop is a delicate balance b/w buyers and sellers leading into the most important news catalyst this month. The market's reaction to this catalyst is perhaps even more important than the catalyst itself.
TNX (10Y yield) continues to push higher, certainly showing no signs of violating its 1-month uptrend. But the most important point to check this chart will be after the close today as well as tomorrow's action, once the FOMC presser is completed.
Update in today's post:


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