TBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend
up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees.
Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal
response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a...
The inflation rate in the United Kingdom remained stable at 6.7% in September 2023,
holding at August's 18-month low and defying market expectations of a slight decrease to 6.6%.
Softer price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.1% vs 13.6% in August) and furniture and household goods (3.7% vs 5.1%) were offset by a smaller decline in energy costs...
Is the FED's caution on inflation justified? Absolutely! Here is why, secondary inflation spikes are very common when an economy does not enter a recession. The FED knows that. Hence their apprehension moving too fast to lower rates.
I think it is a mistake for people to believe inflation is over, running around with a major hard-on to lower rates. On the other...
Good Morning Update
Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields.
Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels.
The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels.
The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels.
Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels?
CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD ...
Wednesday we had inventory reports that showed an increase in US oil production combined with the feds hawkish interest rate sentiment which sent prices deep into discount. OPEC did announce they will be cutting oil production while US supply did increase apparently, US production has slowed down the last 18months. I believe next week this will start to reflect in...
- The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose
at their recent monetary policy committee meeting.
The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point,
taking the official rate to 5% ;
double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists.
BoE hiking interest rates to 5% ,
The inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.9% year-on-year in October 2023,
reaching its lowest level since July 2021 and falling slightly below the market consensus of 3.1% .
The Core Rate, which filters out volatile food and energy prices,
also cooled to 4.2% in October;
marking its lowest point since July 2022.
Good Morning! Let's get it done!
Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see?
Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit.
Do any of these look weak to you?
RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process.
#Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and...
The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR
unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more.
It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since...
Short Meltdown Incoming!!!
Entry positioned in London High, which turns out to be NY session Fibonacci point, also alligns with classic Fib retracement Golden zone. Stop loss above daily high. Profit target from 2020s and lower. From my fundamental part of analysis, my take is that Fed won't cut the rates and that press conference as Fed statement might be very...
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow?
Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate...
The European Central Bank raised Interest Rates by a Quarter of a percentage point Thursday, judging that Inflation remains too High ;
even as data points to a deepening economic downturn in the 20 countries that use the euro.
The move takes the benchmark rate in the euro area to 3.75%, the highest since October 2000.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected.
The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield.
The board said that it...
26 January 2024, 17:04
•EUR/USD rises in North American trading, buoyed by softer US core PCE inflation data.
•Fed's core PCE index fall to 2.9% raises hopes for interest rate cut, aiding EUR/USD's climb.
•Mixed European signals: German consumer confidence falls, Spanish unemployment at 16-year low, ahead of Fed decision.
The EUR/USD gained some 0.14% in early...
History of prior EU Rate pauses:
4 months | Oct 00 - Apr 01
12 months | Jun 07 - Jun 08
3 months | Jul - Oct 2011
4 months | Sept 2023 - Present ⏳SO FAR⏳
At least they could say that this is not the shortest one ever now that we are into month 4.
Historical Average: 6 months (March 2024)
Interestingly this is when the Bank Term Funding Program in...