$USINTR - A Month of Breath

Mr_J__fx Updated   
ECONOMICS:USINTR   United States Interest Rate
The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate USINTR
unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more.
It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since September 2007.

Throughout Fed's announcement The Dollar Index DXY
plunged to what can be said Wave C completed from A-B-C
Elliot Waves Correction
(attached ideas)

Have the markets priced in Inflation USIRYY and Interest Rates USINTR ?


*** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
DXY (live chart) 4Hr (TF)

*A-B-C Waves Completed

July 26 marks the next date of Rate Hikes coming from Feds.
Consensus sits at 5.5%, a 0.25bsp increase from the previous one of 5.25% after a Month of Breath.
USINTR officially at 5.5% as expected after a Month of Breath
Yesterday (September 20/2023) Federal Reserve left U.S Interest Rates USINTR
unchanged at 5.5%.
Inflation concerns are still on the table as Powell stated .
source: Federal Reserve

- The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the Federal Funds Rate at its 22-Year High of 5.25%-5.5% for a second consecutive time in November, reflecting policymakers' dual focus on returning USIRYY Inflation to the 2% Target while avoiding excessive monetary tightening.
Policymakers emphasized that the extent of any additional policy tightening would consider the cumulative impact of previous Interest Rate Hikes,
the time lags associated with how monetary policy influences economic activity and inflation, and developments in both the economy and financial markets.
During the press conference,
Powell signaled that the September dot-plot showing the majority of participants forecasting one more rate hike this year may not be accurate anymore.
He also stated the FOMC had not discussed any rate cuts yet,
while the primary focus remains on whether the central bank will need to implement .


The Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate steady at 5.25%-5.5% for a third consecutive meeting in December 2023,
in line with expectations but indicated 75bps cuts in 2024.
Policymakers said that recent indicators suggest that economic growth has slowed and job gains have moderated but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
USIRYY Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The central bank also published new projections.
GDP growth is expected higher this year (2.6% vs 2.1% in the September projection), but slightly lower in 2024 (1.4% vs 1.5%).
Also, PCE inflation was revised lower for both 2023 (2.8% vs 3.3%) and 2024 (2.4% vs 2.5%) as well as core PCE inflation which is seen at 3.2% in 2023 (vs 3.7%) and 2.4% (vs 2.6%) next year.
Unemployment projections remained steady at 3.8% for 2023 and 4.1% for next year.
The so-called dot plot showed the median year-end 2024 projection for the federal funds rate fell to 4.6% from 5.1% seen in September.

source: Federal Reserve

DXY plunging & BTC rocking

The Federal Reserve kept the Fed funds rate unchanged at a 23-Year High of 5.25%-5.5% for a fourth consecutive meeting in January 2024, in line with expectations.
Policymakers added that they do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the rates until they have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
During the press conference,
Chair Powell said it will be appropriate to begin reducing rates sometime this year but the central bank will continue to make decisions on a meeting by meeting basis and he doesn't think a March cut is likely.
the Fed removed reference to further rate hikes from the statement, saying that the risks to achieve its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance, but noting it would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of such goals.
The central bank noted that inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

source: Federal Reserve


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