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Inflation

UK retail sales slide, Pound edges higherThe British pound has gained ground for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3496, up 0.22% on the day. UK retail sales took a tumble in May, falling 2.7% m/m. This followed an upwardly revised 1.3% increase in April and was much worse than the market estimate of -0.5%. This marked the steepest decline since December 2023 and was driven by a sharp drop in food store sales. Consumers are being squeezed by inflation and are pessimistic about economic conditions - Gfk consumer confidence for June rose slightly to -18 from -20. Annually, retail sales dropped 1.3%, following a 5.0% gain in April and missing the market estimate of 1.7%. This was the weakest reading since April 2024. The dismal retail sales report reflects the volatile economic landscape and there may not be a light at the end of the tunnel for some time. The Israel-Iran war could lead to oil prices continuing to rise and the uncertainty over US tariffs will only add to the worries of the UK consumer. The Bank of England held rates on Thursday but the weak retail sales report will add pressure on the central bank to lower rates in the summer. The markets expect one or two rate cuts in 2025, but the main impediment to a rate cut is stubbornly high inflation. Inflation ticked lower to 3.4% y/y in May from 3.5% a month earlier. The core rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.8% but these numbers are still too high, well above the BoE's target of 2%. Without signs that inflation is easing, it will be difficult for the BoE to justify a rate cut. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3498. Above, there is resistance at 1.3527 1.3440 and 1.3411 are providing support
by OANDA
$JPIRYY -Japan CPI (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY May/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan's annual inflation rate edged down to 3.5% in May 2025 from 3.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since November. Price growth eased for clothing (2.6% vs 2.7% in April), household items (3.6% vs 4.1%), and healthcare (2.0% vs 2.2%), while education costs fell further (-5.6%). In contrast, inflation held steady for transport (2.7%) and miscellaneous items (1.3%), but accelerated for housing (1.1% vs 1.0%), recreation (3.0% vs 2.7%), and communications (1.9% vs 1.1%). Meanwhile, prices of electricity (11.3% vs 13.5%) and gas (5.4% vs 4.4%) remained elevated. On the food side, prices increased by 6.5%, staying at the slowest pace in four months, though rice prices soared over 100%, underscoring the limited impact of government efforts to rein in staple food costs. Meanwhile, the core inflation accelerated to 3.7% from 3.5% in April, reaching its highest level in over two years, ahead of the summer election. Monthly, the CPI rose 0.3%, after a 0.1% gain in April.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Pound Steady as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is showing limited movement for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3435, up 0.18% on the day. The Bank of England didn't have any surprises up its sleeve as it held rates at 4.25%. This follows a quarter-point cut at last month's meeting. The MPC vote indicated that six members voted to hold while three voted to lower rates. The markets had projected that the vote would be 7-2 in favor of holding rates. Today's decision to hold rates was widely expected, but that doesn't mean there aren't economic signals which support a rate cut. The UK economy is in trouble and GDP came in at -0.3% in April, its deepest contraction in 18 months. The weak economy could desperately use a rate cut, but inflation remains stubbornly high and a rate cut would likely send inflation even higher. Annual CPI remained at 3.4% in May, its highest level in over a year. The geopolitical tensions, most recently the war between Israel and Iran have led to greater economic uncertainty and complicated any plans to lower rates. The BoE is expected to lower rates one or twice in the second half of the year, with the direction of inflation being a key factor in the Bank's rate path. The Federal Reserve held rates at Wednesday's meeting for a fourth straight time. The Fed noted that inflation remains higher than the target but said the labor market remains strong. President Trump has pushed hard for the Fed to lower rates but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stuck to his position and repeated on Wednesday that current policy was the most appropriate to respond to the economic uncertainty.
by OANDA
Pound recovers as UK CPI edges lowerThe British pound has stabilized on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3551, up 0.28% on the day. The US dollar showed broad strength on Tuesday and GBP/USD declined 1.05% and fell to a three-week low. UK inflation for May edged lower to 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5% in April and matching the market estimate. The driver behind the deceleration was lower airline prices and petrol prices. Services inflation, which has been persistently high, eased to 4.7% from 5.4%. Monthly, CPI gained 0.2%, much lower than the 1.2% gain in April and matching the market estimate. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, fell to 3.5% in May, down from 3.8% a month earlier and below the market estimate of 3.6%. Monthly, the core rate rose 0.2%, sharply lower than the 1.4% spike in April and in line with the market estimate. This marked the lowest monthly increase in four months. The Bank of England will be pleased that core CPI moved lower but the inflation numbers are still too high for its liking. Headline CPI had been below 3% for a year but has jumped well above 3% in the past two months. BoE policymakers won't have much time to digest today's inflation report as the central bank makes its rate announcement on Thursday. The markets are widely expecting the BoE to maintain the cash rate at 4.25%, Investors will be keeping a close eye on the meeting, looking for hints of a rate cut later in the year. The UK economy contracted in April and with wages falling and unemployment rising, there is pressure for the BoE to lower rates, but that is risky with inflation well above the BoE's 2% inflation target. US retail sales slumped in May, falling 0.9% m/m. This was well below the revised -0.1% reading in April and worse than the market estimate of -0.7%. Annually, retail sales fell to 3.3%, down sharply from a revised 5.0%. Consumers are wary about the economy and anxiety over Trump's tariffs has weighed on consumer spending. If additional key US data heads lower, this will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. GBP/US is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3480. Above, there is resistance at 1.3545 1.3364 and 1.3299 are providing support
by OANDA
GBIRYY - U.K Inflation (May/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY May/2025 source: Office for National Statistics -The annual inflation rate in the UK edged down to 3.4% in May 2025 from 3.5% in April, matching expectations. The largest downward contribution came from transport prices (0.7% vs 3.3%), reflecting falls in air fares (-5%) largely due to the timing of Easter and the associated school holidays, as well as falling motor fuel prices. Additionally, the correction of an error in the Vehicle Excise Duty series contributed to the drop; the error affected April’s data, but the series has been corrected from May. Further downward pressure came from cost for housing and household services (6.9% vs 7%), mostly owner occupiers' housing costs (6.7% vs 6.9%). Services inflation also slowed to 4.7% from 5.4%. On the other hand, the largest, upward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.4% vs 3.4%), namely chocolate, confectionery and ice cream, and furniture and household goods (0.8%, the most since December 2023). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.2%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Mr. LATE drop the RATE!!"Jerome Powell aspires to be remembered as a heroic Federal Reserve chair, akin to Tall Paul #VOLKER. However, Volker was largely unpopular during much of his tenure. The primary function of the Federal Reserve is to finance the federal #government and ensure liquidity in US capital markets. Controlling price inflation should not rely on costly credit. Instead, it should be achieved by stimulating growth and productivity through innovation and by rewarding companies that wisely allocate capital, ultimately leading to robust cash flows... innovation thrives on affordable capital. While innovation can lead to misallocations and speculative errors, this is a normal aspect of the process. (BUT it is crucial that deposits and savings are always insured and kept separate from investment capital.) By maintaining higher interest rates for longer than necessary, J POW is negatively impacting innovators, capital allocators, small businesses that need cheap capital to function effectively, job creators, and the overall growth environment. Addressing price inflation is a far more favorable situation than allowing unemployment to soar to intolerable levels. "Losing my job feels like a depression". But if I have to pay more for eggs, I can always opt for oats.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BallaJi
$JPINTR -Japan Interest Rates (June/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR (June/2025) source: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during its June meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008 and aligning with market expectations. The unanimous decision underscored the central bank’s cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical risks and lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies, both of which continue to pose threats to global economic growth. Tokyo and Washington agreed to extend trade talks after failing to achieve a breakthrough during discussions on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada. Meanwhile, as part of its gradual policy normalization, the BoJ reaffirmed its plan to cut Japanese government bond purchases by JPY 400 billion each quarter through March 2026. Starting April 2026, it will then slow the reduction to JPY 200 billion per quarter through March 2027, targeting a monthly purchase level of around JPY 2 trillion—signaling a measured but steady path away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
"Downside DAX" is what we will call it in July?Looking at the technical picture purely, we can see that weakness is starting to kick in. Will July be a negative month for DAX? Let's have a look. XETR:DAX Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
XETR:DAX
by Marketscom
US Unemployment Rising: How Is This NOT a Recession?The U.S. unemployment numbers are steadily climbing, as indicated by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Typically, significant rises in unemployment correlate directly with recessions, which are shaded gray in historical data charts. Currently, unemployment has reached over 7 million, significantly higher than recent lows. Historically, every similar increase has coincided with or preceded an official recession declaration. Yet, mainstream economic narratives have avoided labeling this a recession. What does this data tell us, and is the market accurately pricing in the risk? Are we already in a recession, or is this time different? Share your thoughts below. Let's discuss the disconnect between the unemployment reality and official recession narratives.
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Teqnkka
$USIRYY -U.S CPI Below Expectations (May/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.4% (May/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US increased for the first time in four months to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, though it came in below the expected 2.5%. Prices rose slightly more for food, used cars and new vehicles but shelter cost slowed and gasoline prices continued to decline. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate held steady at 2.8%. On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI increased by 0.1%, falling short of market expectations.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
US INFLATION, a decisive figure this week!This week, which runs from Monday June 9 to Friday June 13, sees two fundamental factors which will have a strong impact on the stock market: the continuation of the trade diplomacy phase which is currently acting as a fundamental red thread (particularly between China and the United States) and, above all, the US inflation update according to the PCI price index on Wednesday June 11. The key issue is to determine whether tariffs in the so-called reciprocal tariffs trade war have begun to trigger a rebound in inflation. This is what the US Federal Reserve (FED) is watching to determine whether or not it should resume cutting the federal funds rate, which has been on hold since last December. 1) Federal funds rate cuts have been on hold since the end of 2024 Unlike the European Central Bank and other major Western central banks, the FED has paused its key interest rate cut since the beginning of the year. The ECB's key interest rate, meanwhile, has been cut several times and now stands at 2.15%, i.e. a key interest rate considered neutral for the economy (i.e. neither an accommodating nor a restrictive monetary policy). This divergence in monetary policy between the FED and the ECB is perceived as a risk by the market, while the trade war could end up having a negative impact on US economic growth. 2) The market does not expect the FED to resume cutting rates before September. But Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve (FED) is taking a hard line, believing that the Trump Administration's trade war could undermine its efforts to fight inflation. Although the FED's inflation target of 2% is not far off, according to the latest ECP and CPI updates, the FED wants confirmation that companies have not passed on sharp price rises to compensate for the tariffs. This is why the inflation figures published this May have a decisive dimension at a fundamental level. The Fed will be able to resume cutting the federal funds rate if, and only if, disinflation is not threatened by the trade war. 3) This is why the ICP US inflation update on Wednesday June 11 is the fundamental highlight of the week. This Wednesday, June 11, we'll be keeping a very close eye on the publication of US inflation according to the ICP. The monthly reading will be closely watched, as will the year-on-year nominal and underlying inflation rates. The consensus is relatively pessimistic, with inflation expected to rebound at both monthly and annual rates. Real-time inflation, as measured by TRUFLATION, is still under control, so the pessimistic consensus may be overturned. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Swissquote
$CNIRYY -China CPI (May/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY May/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices dropped by 0.1% yoy in May 2025, matching the declines seen in the previous two months and slightly outperforming expectations of a 0.2% decrease. This was the fourth straight month of consumer deflation, highlighting challenges from ongoing trade risks with the US, sluggish domestic demand, and concerns over job stability. Non-food prices were flat for the second month in a row, as increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1% in April), clothing (1.5% vs. 1.3%), healthcare (0.3% vs 0.2%), and education (0.9% vs 0.7%) were offset by a sharper drop in transport (-4.3% vs -3.9%). On the food side, prices fell at a steeper rate (-0.4% vs -0.2%), down for the fourth month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.6%, marking the highest reading since January and following a 0.5% gain in the prior two months. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.2% in May, reversing a 0.1% gain in April and indicating the third monthly drop so far this year.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$EUINTR - Interest Rates Cut (June/2025)ECONOMICS:EUINTR (June/2025) source: European Central Bank - The ECB cut key interest rates by 25 bps at its June meeting, based on updated inflation and economic forecasts. Inflation is near the 2% target, with projections showing 2.0% in 2025 (vs 2.3% previously), 1.6% in 2026 (vs 1.9% previously), and 2.0% in 2027. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is seen at 2.4% in 2025, then easing to 1.9% in 2026–2027. GDP growth is forecast at 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 (vs 1.2% previously), and 1.3% in 2027, supported by higher real incomes, strong labour markets, and rising government investment, despite trade policy uncertainties weighing on exports and business investment. Scenario analysis shows trade tensions could reduce growth and inflation, while resolution could boost both. Wage growth is still high but slowing, and corporate profits are helping absorb cost pressures. President Lagarde said that the central bank is approaching the end of a cycle, suggesting a pause may be on the horizon following today’s reduction.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$EUIRYY - Europe CPI below 2% Target (May/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 1.9% May/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Eurozone CPI eased to 1.9% year-on-year in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April and below market expectations of 2.0%. This marks the first time inflation has fallen below the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target since September 2024, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut later this week and raising the possibility of additional cuts. A key driver of the deceleration was a sharp slowdown in services inflation, which dropped to 3.2% from 4.0% in April, its lowest level since March 2022. Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 3.6% year-on-year, while inflation for non-energy industrial goods held steady at 0.6%. In contrast, prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco accelerated, rising 3.3% compared with 3.0% the previous month. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, slipped to 2.3%, the lowest reading since January 2022. source: EUROSTAT
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Core PCE (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC April/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile and energy prices and is Federal Reserve's chosen gauge of underlying inflation in the US economy, went up 0.1% from the previous month in April of 2025. The result was in line with market expectations. From the previous year, the index rose by 2.5% to slow from the 2.7% jump from March, the softest increase since March of 2021.
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
by Mr_J__fx
Japan core inflation hits two-year high, yen gains groundThe yen is higher on Friday. Iin the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.63, down 0.37% on the day. Tokyo core CPI climbed to 3.6% y/y in May, up from 3.4% in April and above the market estimate of 3.5%. This marked the highest level since Jan. 2025. Tokyo core inflation is viewed as the leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food, was driven higher due to due higher non-fresh food prices, particularly rice which has soared 93% over the past year. The jump in core CPI bolsters the case for a BoJ rate hike. The markets had anticipated a rate hike in October but today's strong inflation report could accelerate the timing of the next rate hike. At the same time, the uncertainty caused by US trade policy may force the BoJ to delay any rate hikes until the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy becomes clearer. US President Trump's controversial tariffs have sent the financial markets on wild swings. Now, US courts are weighing in on whether Trump exceeded his authority when he imposed the tariffs. A trade court panel ruled this week that most of the tariffs were illegal but on Thursday, an appeals court granted the Trump administration a temporary pause, keeping the tariffs in effect. The legal fight over the tariffs has just begun and could go all the way to the US Supreme Court. In the meantime, the legal challenge has blown a hole in Trump's tariff policy and is causing even more uncertainty in the financial markets.
by OANDA
1
Australian inflation higher than expected, Aussie extends lossesThe Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6415 in the North American session, down 0.44% on the day. Australia's inflation rate remained unchanged in April at 2.4% y/y for a third straight month, matching the lowest rate since Nov. 2024. The reading was slightly higher than the market estimate of 2.3% but remained within the central bank's inflation target of 2%-3%. Trimmed mean inflation, the central bank's preferred indicator for underlying inflation, edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in March. The inflation report was mildly disappointing in that inflation was hotter than expected. Underlying inflation has proven to be persistent which could see the Reserve Bank of Australia delay any rate cuts. The markets have responded by lowering the probability of a rate cut in July to 62%, compared to 78% a day ago, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. A key factor in the July decision will be the second-quarter inflation report in late July, ahead of the August meeting. The Reserve Bank lowered rates last week by a quarter-point to 3.85%, a two-year low. The central bank left the door open to further cuts, as global trade uncertainties are expected to lower domestic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its May 7 meeting later today. At the meeting, the Fed stressed that it wasn't planning to lower rates anytime soon and the minutes are expected to confirm the Fed's wait-and-see stance. US President Trump has been zig-zagging on trade policy, imposing and then cancelling tariffs on China and the European Union. Fed Chair Powell said at the May meeting that the economic uncertainty due to tariffs means that the appropriate rate path is unclear and that message could be reiterated in the Fed minutes.
by OANDA
New Zealand dollar sharply lower, RBNZ cut expectedThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5950, down 0.83% on the day. A day earlier, the New Zealand dollar touched a high of 0.6031, its highest level since Oct. 2024. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower rates by a quarter-point to 3.25% on Wednesday. With little doubt about the decision, investors will be focusing on the Reserve Bank's updated forecasts. The markets are looking at another rate cut in July and perhaps one more later in the year, which would lower the cash rate below 3.0%. The RBNZ has been dealing with a weak domestic economy and a deteriorating outlook for the global economy due to US President Trump's erratic tariff policy. The RBNZ would like to continue trimming rates and restore consumer and business confidence. New Zealand's inflation was higher than expected in the first quarter at 2.5%, up from 2.2% in Q4 2024. This is within the Bank's inflation target of 1%-3% and means that inflation levels won't prevent the Bank from lowering rates on Wednesday. US durable goods orders plunges, consumer confidence surges In the US, Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% m/m in April, after a 7.5% gain in March, which was the fastest pace of growth since July 2020. The soft reading managed to beat the market estimate of -7.8%. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which has fallen steadily this year, surged to 98.0 in May, up from 86.0 in April and blowing past the market estimate of 87.0. We'll hear from more Federal Reserve members on Wednesday, which could provide some insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see stance and is widely expected to hold rates for a fourth straight time at the next meeting on June 18. NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5978 and is testing 0.5955. Below, there is support at 0.5928 There is resistance at 0.6005 and 0.6028
by OANDA
Steepening Yields & Uncertainty: What says the Bond Markets? CBOT:ZN1! US Yield Curve in Image Above Showing yields on May 27, 2024 vs May 27, 2025 . What happened in a year and how to understand this? Looking at the image above, the yield curve was inverted on this day last year. Comparing last year’s term structure to today’s, we can see that the yield curve has steepened sharply. What does this signify? Let’s dive deeper as we share our insights and assessment of what the bond market is doing. At the March 16, 2022, meeting, the FED finally pivoted away from their "transitory inflation" narrative to a significant supply shocks narrative—supply-demand imbalances and Russia-Ukraine war-related uncertainty. This started a rate hike cycle, with rates peaking at 5.25%–5.50% in the July 26, 2023, meeting. The Fed Funds rate was reduced by 100 bps, with a cut of 50 bps on September 18, 2024, and two cuts of 25 bps in the November and December 2024 meetings. The FED paused its rate cutting at the start of the year, citing—as we have all heard recently—that the inflation outlook remains tilted to the upside, and given policy uncertainty and trade tariffs, the risk to slowing growth continues to increase. Businesses are holding back spending due to this confusion and continued uncertainty. ** Refer to the image of FED rate path above. The start of the rate hike cycle also began the FED’s balance sheet reduction program—from a peak of $8.97 trillion to the current balance of $6.69 trillion. **Refer to the image of FED's balance sheet above. Rates remained elevated at these levels to bring down inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. Inflation has currently eased to 2.3% as of April 2025. Refer to the CPI YoY image above. Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, and most recently non-voter Kashkari (FED) highlighted stagflationary risks. FED Chair Powell noted risks to both sides of its dual mandate in its most recent meeting March 19, 2025. In the March meeting, they also announced a slower pace of reducing Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. In this announcement, Treasury securities reduction slowed from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, while maintaining agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities reduction at the same pace. Many participants and analysts noted this as a dovish pivot. However, given the current market conditions and the supply-demand imbalance emerging within US Treasury and bond markets, we note the rising yields. The yield curve steepening signifies that investors want better return on their bond holdings. The interesting turn of events here is that US Treasuries and bonds have not provided the safety they usually do in times of uncertainty and policy risk. The dollar has fallen in tandem with bonds, resulting in a devalued dollar and rising yields. Thirty-year yields touched the 5% level, and the DXY index traded at levels last seen in March 2022. Looking deeper under the hood, we note that a repeat of COVID-pandemic-style stimulus measures may perhaps result in an uncontrollable inflation spiral. The ballooning twin deficits—i.e., trade and budget deficits—with the new “Big Beautiful Bill,” or as some analysts joked, noting this as a foreshadowing of the newest credit rating: “BBB.” Any black swan event may just be the catalyst needed to tip these dominoes to start falling. As we previously noted in some of our commentary, debt service payments are now more than defense spending. The new bill, once passed, is going to add another $2.5 trillion to the deficit. While the deficit is an issue in the US, it is important to note that it is a global issue. The key question here will be: in due time, will the US bond market and US dollar regain their usual haven status? Or will we continue seeing diversification into Gold, Bitcoin, and global markets? So, to summarize these mechanics playing out in the US and global markets—in our view—sure, the US administration, one may debate, is not helping by creating this environment of uncertainty in global trade, coupled with a worsening deficit and higher-for-longer rates. The markets currently are perhaps at their most unpredictable stage, with so much going on in the US and across the world. It is still too early to write off US exceptionalism, and there will be value in rotating back to US markets once the dust on policy uncertainty settles. We suggest that investors stay diversified, watch for any upside surprises to the inflation and do not chase yields blindly as the move may already be overstretched. It is also our view that we are past the extreme policy uncertainty having already noted Trump put when ES Futures fell over 20%. Although note that near All-time highs or at 6000 level, we are likely to see further headline risks until trade deals are locked in. As always, be nimble, pragmatic and be ready to adjust with evolving market conditions. Definitions Plain-language definition: A “basis point” (bps) is 0.01%. So, a 50 bps cut = 0.50% reduction in interest rates. Plain-language definition: A steep yield curve means long-term interest rates are much higher than short-term ones. This can reflect rising inflation expectations or increased risk. A “black swan event”—an unpredictable crisis—could set off a chain reaction if confidence in US finances weakens further. Trade deficit: Importing more than exports Budget deficit: Government spending far more than it earns
CBOT:ZN1!
by EdgeClear
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (April/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 3.6% April/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan's annual inflation rate stood at 3.6% in April 2025, unchanged from March while remaining at its lowest print since December. Food prices rose the least in four months (6.5% vs 7.4% in March) even as rice costs jumped 94.8% y-o-y, hitting a new record for the 7th straight month due to poor harvests and rising demand from record tourist numbers. Price growth also eased for clothing (2.7% vs 3.0%) and household items (4.1% vs 4.5%). Cost of education fell much steeper (-5.6% vs -1.2%). In contrast, inflation was stable for transport (at 2.7%) while accelerating for housing (1.0% vs 0.8%), healthcare (2.2% vs 2.0%), recreation (2.7% vs 2.0%), communications (1.1% vs 1.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.3% vs 1.1%). Prices of electricity (13.5% vs 8.7% ) and gas (4.4% vs 2.4%) rose the most in three months, as the impact of government subsidies faded. Core inflation climbed to an over 2-year high of 3.5% from 3.2% in March. Monthly, the CPI rose 0.1%, easing from a 0.3% gain in March.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx