Hi guys, today I bring you an important point for macro analysis.
Many believe that seeing a significant improvement in economic data, especially those linked to inflation, showing that it is slowing down is something positive, is it really?
In a way, it's a positive metric when looked at in isolation, because inflation brings major disturbances to the economy,...
The Canadian dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3620, up 0.24%.
The Bank of Canada has been aggressive in its tightening, including a whopping full-point hike in July, which brought the cash rate to 2.50%. The BoC has been gradually easing since then, raising rates by 75 bp and then 50 bp, bringing the cash rate...
It felt like yesterday that Obama Care was the biggest concern on everyones minds.
After 1.4 Trillion in healthcare spendings in 2021 and COVID pounding on weaker baby boomer populations has driven total debt into a parabolic upwards trend.
War is festering in Ukraine, Wars get expensive.
EU is on the brink of an Energy Crisis unlike anyone has seen...
The problem with the worlds economies reopening now is the stock markets already priced in the reopening over the past year with lower inflation numbers and massive QE.
How do the markets avoid hitting this inflation wall?
Fed says it's "transitory", is there enough QE left to jump this wall?
How does one chart "transition" with indicators?
Ever chart I pull...
Ummm, the fast and short answer is that I am overall bearish on the SPY and anticipate we ultimately get rejected from this ATH (all time high) trendline ...however, it is starting to get complicated, lol.
Disclaimer: Be aware the following comments are just my observations and I am not a professional trader. I am school teacher by day and stock junky by night,...
This idea is a study of the top 4 US Airlines compared to inflation rates.
I still vividly remember the day I decided to learn about markets and economics.
It was the Friday after markets closed on January 29th, 2021 and Kevin O’Leary (Mr. Wonderful) was on CNBC debating the so called reddit short squeeze of gamestop with MA Sec of State William Galvin.
With...
This chart shows the SPX/M2 and essentially paints a picture of the SPX when accounting for inflation.
All the "gains" made in the time following the 2008 crash, after factoring inflation in, simply put price or "value" back to where it peaked.
How interesting that the 2020 crash should occur at such a pivotal TA level, forming a near perfect sweep of highs...
With all the chatter on the Fed Pivot, we think it’s worth exploring, what happens after a Fed Pivot or Fed Pause. Let’s break down the discussion into two camps, a Fed Pause, defined as a pause in policy rate hikes, and a Fed Pivot, loosely defined as reversal of policy rates aka rate cuts.
To keep things in context, we will look at the effect of the Fed’s...
This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral.
To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th
Or maybe they'll allow a brief...
CME: SOFR Futures ( CME:SR31! ), E-Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! )
While football fans are fervently following the 2022 World Cup, we analogize the Federal Reserve’s year-long battle with surging inflation to a football match. In this game, the Core CPI had an early advantage over the Fed Funds Rate, at 6.00% vs. 0.25% in January. The Fed mounted decisive...
The date was Oct 21st, 2015.
No I can't tell the future, and neither can movie makers.
What I can tell is the market is aware the next CPI print will come in much lower which is estimated at 7.8.
My estimate in the above chart I have coming in lower at 7.4.
Sit Rep going into tomorrows print.
In my previous ideas and comments I said after the rally we...
CME_MINI:M6B1!
U.K. financial markets went into a freefall last week as Prime Minister Liz Truss announced aggressive income tax cuts amid deep fiscal trouble.
British pound is trading at $1.11 to USD, half of its value in 2007. However, it’s unfair to blame everything on a new PM and a new King. Both got their jobs just a month ago.
Sterling’s downfall...
Metals to Break its All Time High. I have discussed about Gold before and in this tutorial we will study into Copper.
From last week Fed chairman statement, he said “it is premature to be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to go."
The continuous inflation is almost a certainty into next year, and what asset or instrument works well with...
As you can see - all crashes on SPX have been synced with the above chart dipping big time.
What do we have now ? The chart hasn't even gone down - yet SPX has dipped -27%.
The difference between SPX's TOP and the start of declining of Inflation Rate / CPI is of an average 15-18% decline on SPX.
The only problem is that we haven't even started properly...
Thank you Vanna!
Show our contestants what they can win!
Should you choose inflation has peaked, you stand to win an all expense paid short covering rally to 3900 ... *Crowd Cheers*
Conversely,
If you choose that inflation has not peaked, you'll win front row seats to the public execution of the global financial systems... *Crowd Goes Bananas*
Choose...
Dow Jones industrial average index has lost its February 2020 support. As this support did not hold i am convinced that the oldest US index has begun the great depression, not recession but depression. You can already see what fiat pairs with the USD are doing.
The run up was just phenomenal to say the least. We've been essentially parabolic since 2009, with the...
"Consumer Prices rise in July, but rate of inflation slows"
Yeah, Nah.
Bullshit.
Fed minutes released next Wednesday will show an increased number
of Federal Reserve Board of Governors favor Taper.
The count of those in favor now stands at 6 up from 2.
Jerome Powell's recent Press Conference demonstrated Inflation is
not going down.
"The increases will...
PCE was out, seems like Inflation is stable. Powell noted they will slow down the hike, so even if data is strong they will probably stick to the plan. If data is bad, which is not impossible, considering that economy is slowing down, then the DXY will fall further. So I see win-win for the bears on DXY going forward.
But there will be pullbacks of course. ...
