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CPI Met Expectations — Is Gold Now Targeting Lower Liquidity?Gold showed a muted reaction after yesterday’s U.S. CPI release, as inflation data came in exactly in line with expectations. Core CPI m/m printed 0.2%, CPI m/m 0.3%, and CPI y/y 2.4%, matching forecasts. Because the market had largely priced in this outcome, the release did not trigger a strong bullish reaction in gold. Instead, price rotated lower after the announcement, suggesting the CPI event may have acted as a liquidity catalyst rather than a bullish driver. When major data meets expectations, markets often shift focus back to technical structure and liquidity zones. Macro Narrative Several macro factors influenced gold after the CPI release: • CPI data came in line with forecasts, reducing surprise volatility • Markets had already priced the inflation outcome beforehand • USD remained relatively stable after the data • Profit-taking triggered a short-term pullback in gold In many cases, when economic data meets expectations, markets move toward nearby liquidity zones before the next directional move. Technical Overview (H1) From a structural perspective on the H1 chart: • Gold previously formed a weak high near the recent top • A Change of Character (CHOCH) signaled potential structure shift • Price then printed a Bearish Break of Structure (BOS) • The market is now reacting near the 5128 demand zone This structure suggests that the recent rally may be entering a distribution phase, with liquidity resting below current price. Key Levels 🟡 Reaction Zone: 5128 ⚠️ Intermediate Liquidity: 5064 🎯 Major Liquidity Target: 5015 🔴 Weak High: 5240 area Holding below the recent structure keeps downside pressure intact. Scenario 1 — Bearish If gold fails to reclaim the broken structure, price may continue rotating lower toward deeper liquidity. Potential path: 5128 → 5064 → 5015 Markets often seek lower liquidity after a bearish structure shift. Scenario 2 — Bullish If buyers defend the demand zone and reclaim structure, gold may attempt another push higher. Potential path: 5128 hold → 5180 → retest highs This would suggest the recent move lower was only a temporary liquidity sweep. Market Debate CPI delivered no surprise, yet gold still moved lower. This often signals that liquidity positioning is driving the market more than the news itself. So the key question now is: Is gold preparing for a deeper liquidity sweep toward 5015… or will buyers defend 5128 demand and push price higher again?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SeSeLinaaa-Gold
12
EUR/GBP stagflation risks as Head & Shoulders unfoldsThe Euro is under fundamental and technical pressure against the British Pound. The Middle East energy shock has shifted central bank expectations, with markets pricing in rate hikes by the ECB amid a stagnant, no-growth European economy. This dynamic has raised the threat of stagflation more so than in the UK, weighing on the single currency. While the Bank of England faces similar inflation pressures, the UK is fundamentally less sensitive to the energy shock than the Eurozone, though its economy is also grappling with high unemployment. The rate-hike divergence (nearly 2 hikes for the ECB vs 0.5 for the BOE), however, is supported by a bearish picture on the charts, further accentuated by a textbook Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. Key topics covered - European stagflation risk : The surge in oil prices is a massive problem for the Euro. Money markets are now pricing in an ECB rate hike for July (and potentially another by December), but hiking rates in a stagnant economy heavily reliant on imported energy is a perfect recipe for stagflation. - US trade threats : Adding to the Euro's bearish macro backdrop, the US has initiated a Section 301 trade investigation into the EU, raising the looming threat of new tariffs. - Head & Shoulders neckline : We analyse the daily Head and Shoulders pattern. The trendline support and pattern neckline align at the 0.8620 area (which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). - Measured Move target : If the 0.8620 neckline breaks, we break down the macro target. The full measured move projection points all the way down to 0.8360, aligning with the major May 2025 swing lows. EUR/GBP scenarios & trade plan: - Bullish (Short-term bounce) : With short-term divergence forming on the 4-hour chart, traders may trade the bounce off the neckline support. Entry here requires a tight stop just below the previous low, with an initial take-profit at the 0.8643 resistance. Traders can then trim profits and leave a runner toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. - Bearish (Macro swing trade) : As long as any bounce stays below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8700, this remains a classic "sell the rallies" setup. A rejection near the 38.2% Fib, or a confirmed breakdown below the 0.8612 - 0.8620 neckline, opens the floodgates. Immediate targets include the 61.8% Fibonacci "golden pocket," with the ultimate macro target sitting at the 0.8360 measured move projection. Are you trading the short-term bounce or positioning for the macro breakdown? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
Gold Bear Flag Inside Major Channel – 4400 Next?Gold is currently approaching an important technical area on the chart. In this breakdown I walk through the key structure developing, the levels traders should be watching closely, and how this setup fits into the broader market context. We’ll also briefly look at the macro backdrop that could influence how price reacts around these levels. Watch the chart closely as this structure develops — the next move could be decisive.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alchemy Markets
CPI Night: Will Gold Hold 5160 Demand Before a Move to 5300?Gold is entering a critical moment as markets prepare for the U.S. CPI release tonight, one of the most important inflation indicators for Federal Reserve policy. Inflation data often triggers sharp volatility across gold, the USD, and Treasury yields because it directly influences expectations for future Fed rate cuts. On the chart, gold recently completed a strong impulsive move and is now consolidating above a key demand zone. This creates a classic pre-news setup where liquidity may be tested before the next expansion. So the key question becomes: Will gold hold the 5160 demand zone and continue higher… or will CPI trigger a deeper liquidity sweep first? Macro Narrative Several macro factors are currently driving gold: • Markets are waiting for the U.S. CPI inflation report tonight • Strong inflation could delay expectations for Fed rate cuts • Higher yields and a stronger USD often pressure gold in the short term • Softer inflation may weaken the USD and support gold Because CPI affects interest-rate expectations, it frequently becomes a catalyst for large liquidity moves in gold. Key Economic Event U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Impact: High The inflation data will help determine whether the market expects the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer or move closer toward easing later this year. IF–THEN CPI Scenarios IF CPI comes higher than expected → Treasury yields may rise → USD could strengthen → Gold may face selling pressure IF CPI comes lower than expected → Rate-cut expectations may increase → USD could weaken → Gold may rally toward higher resistance levels Technical Overview (H1) From a structural perspective: • Gold recently completed a strong impulse wave • Price is now retracing into the 0.618 Fibonacci zone • The area around 5160–5150 is acting as a key demand zone • Current consolidation suggests the market may be preparing for the next move This type of structure often appears before major macro catalysts. Key Levels 🟡 Demand Zone: 5169 – 5150 📊 Current Pivot: 5204 🎯 Liquidity Resistance: 5218 ✨ Major Target: 5299 Holding above the demand zone keeps the bullish continuation scenario valid. Scenario 1 — Bullish If CPI data comes softer and buyers defend the demand zone, gold may resume its bullish structure. Potential path: 5160 → 5218 → 5240 → 5299 In this scenario, the current pullback may simply represent a retracement before expansion. Scenario 2 — Bearish If inflation surprises to the upside, yields and the USD could strengthen. Gold may then sweep lower liquidity before stabilizing. Possible path: 5160 break → 5128 zone Markets often trigger liquidity sweeps around major news releases. Market Debate CPI releases often cause gold to move sharply in both directions before the real trend begins. So the key question now is: Is gold preparing for a push toward 5300 liquidity… or will CPI trigger a liquidity sweep below 5160 first? Share your view below 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SeSeLinaaa-Gold
19
$CNIRYY ECONOMICS:CNIRYY +1.3% February/2026 +0.9% source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation jumped to 1.3% in February 2026 from 0.2% in January, marking the highest print since January 2023 and topping market expectations of 0.8%. The increase largely reflected the impact of the Lunar New Year, which fell in mid-February this year. Food prices logged the sharpest rise since October 2024, rebounding from a prior decline (1.7% vs -0.7% in January), boosted by an acceleration in the cost of fresh vegetables and a softer drop in pork prices. Non-food inflation picked up strongly (1.3% vs 0.4%), with upward price pressures coming from clothing (1.9% vs 1.9%), healthcare (1.9% vs 1.7%), and education (2.0% vs flat reading). Meantime, transport costs fell much more slowly (-0.7% vs -3.4%), even as a drop in housing prices accelerated a bit (-0.2% vs -0.1%). Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 1.8% yoy, the strongest since March 2019. Monthly, the CPI rose 1.0%, up from 0.2% in January and pointing to the largest monthly gain since February 2024.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Are we all cooked? #OIL #WAR Here is the reality of the market right now. 🧵 These are all my Today personal opinion that might be wrong . More than a month ago, the #GOLD chart was screaming a warning. I told you all to wake up because the world was shifting faster than we expected. Today, we are seeing exactly why. If this conflict doesn’t de-escalate in the next 10-14 days, the market isn't just going to dip—we are staring down a severe correction. Here is the chain reaction you need to understand: 1️⃣ The Oil Shockwave: Everything you buy is tied to the price of oil. With Brent crude already blowing past $114, the inflation we fought so hard to kill will come roaring back. If the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed, $150/barrel isn't a worst-case scenario; it’s the next stop. 2️⃣ The Hidden AI Crash: What does Middle Eastern oil have to do with US tech? Everything. Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Persian Gulf are the financial backbone for massive US AI and tech infrastructure. If they can’t export oil, that pipeline of capital freezes. Wall Street's AI boom will feel the squeeze immediately. 3️⃣ The Escalation Risk: Airstrikes are one thing. But if the US puts boots on the ground in Iran ( not just a one day act ), we are looking at a protracted, multi-year conflict that will fundamentally fracture global trade. I don’t want to be right about this. Our generation has lived through 'once-in-a-lifetime' historical events back-to-back, and frankly, it’s exhausting and unfair. But ignoring the charts won't protect you. Stay liquid. Stay sharp. Lets Pray for our world . Be safe and  Be careful out there.
ICMARKETS:XBRUSD
by Ash_TheTrader
Rising Oil – Why Gold Might StruggleRising tensions in the Middle East are pushing oil prices higher due to the risk of supply disruptions. Normally, geopolitical instability tends to support gold. However, in the current environment, higher oil prices could actually create short-term pressure on gold. To understand this dynamic, we need to look at the market through an intermarket perspective. 1. U.S. economic data is starting to soften Recent labor market data suggests that the U.S. economy is beginning to slow down: Nonfarm Payrolls: -92K (vs. +58K expected) Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (up from 4.3%) ADP Employment: around 63K These numbers indicate that the labor market is weakening. However, the key issue is that inflation has not fully disappeared, especially with energy prices rising again. 2. Rising oil prices complicate the Fed's policy path Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are increasing risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for transporting about 20% of global oil supply. If supply disruptions occur: Oil ↑ → Inflation ↑ This creates a difficult situation for the Federal Reserve: Cut rates → risk of inflation returning Keep rates high → economic slowdown Historically, when facing this trade-off, the Fed has usually prioritized controlling inflation over supporting growth. 3. The intermarket effect If oil prices continue rising, the following chain reaction could occur: Oil ↑ → Inflation ↑ → Fed delays rate cuts → USD strengthens A stronger U.S. dollar typically creates downward pressure or consolidation in gold prices in the short term. In other words, during this phase oil could become a key variable influencing gold’s direction. 4. Key variables traders should monitor At the moment, the market is focusing on three main factors: 1️⃣ Middle East tensions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz 2️⃣ The trend in oil prices 3️⃣ The Fed's policy response to inflation These factors will likely determine whether gold will: continue correcting move into sideways consolidation or resume its upward trend A historical question worth considering In the past, there was a period when oil prices surged sharply… and gold eventually collapsed. That happened in the early 1980s. Could a similar scenario repeat in the current cycle? 👉 In the next article, I will explore this question: “Oil Rising – Could Gold Repeat The 1980 Crash?” We will revisit the oil–gold–Fed cycle between 1970 and 1980 and compare it with today’s market conditions. 💬 If you found this perspective useful: Drop a 🚀 and share your view in the comments. It helps this analysis reach more traders on TradingView, and I will continue the next part of this series.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Chum_trades
4
S&P and a very timely correction for the U.S. presidentWith the start of the boxing match between the U.S. and the regime in Iran in the Middle East ring, and with rising threats around the Strait of Hormuz, around 20–30% of global oil and gas supply could be disrupted—at least in the coming week (hopefully not for long). Usually, these kinds of tensions inject fear into the markets and create a chain reaction. The first domino to wobble is energy—and in this case, specifically oil prices. So how does this chain look in our case? Higher Oil Price --> Higher Inflation --> Higher Interest Rates --> Lower Corporate Profits Can you see the connection with the S&P? Markets move on trader sentiment and the perceived future value of the assets they trade. So what should we expect for the S&P? If the S&P breaks below $6790, my next target is $6500. The downtrend can be reinforced by sustained higher oil prices and a stronger DXY (>97). In that case, the S&P could reach $6150. Why is this timely? We have the U.S. presidential midterm elections in November. That gives President Trump’s administration enough time to potentially revive the market and show strong growth in the months leading up to the election. Recency bias plays a role here. A new Fed Chairman will be in office by the end of May. As you may know, Kevin Warsh has been announced as the next nominee, and he is considered hawkish. So at least until June, the market will likely price in “no rate cuts.” Seasonality in the S&P also shows that around this period we often see corrections—and sometimes the lowest prices of the year. (Note that, I made the seasonality chart myself and the big moves during the COVID period have not been excluded)
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SamanFx0
11
USD/JPY: Trading the double top at 158.00 ahead of NFP?USD/JPY is testing critical technical resistance ahead of today's highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The dollar continues to strengthen on safe-haven flows driven by Middle East escalations. With the Strait of Hormuz closure threatening a global energy shock, markets are pricing in a "higher for longer" inflation and interest rate narrative from the Fed, giving the greenback the upper hand. Meanwhile, the yen continues to struggle, fully erasing its post-election gains as optimism around Japan's growth fades following a preliminary Q4 GDP miss and the looming threat of US global tariffs. Key topics covered - Macro backdrop : The Middle East energy shock is reinforcing the "higher for longer" US interest rate narrative, funnelling safe-haven capital into the dollar instead of the yen while Japan's economic optimism is fading amid the threat of Trump's 15% global tariffs. - Double bottom neckline : Following the post-election crash down to 152.00, the pair rallied back and is currently testing the neckline of a double bottom structure around 157.65. The recent push above this level is currently acting as a false break. - Liquidity & RSI divergence : We highlight the critical 158.26 liquidity grab level (the January 23 open before the massive dump). While there is no RSI divergence yet, one more leg to the upside into this zone will likely trigger a bearish divergence signal. - Elliott Wave structure : The recent acceleration outside the base channel suggests we might get a final (fifth) wave upward to finalise the impulse sequence. This implies a deeper correction might be looming before any further macro continuation. USD/JPY scenarios & trade plan: - Bearish (short-term fade) : With a short-term double top forming near 158.00, we are looking for a rejection. A short position from the peak would have a tight stop placed just above 158.65, targeting a correction back down to the previous Wave 4 support near 156.40. - Bullish (Macro breakout) : A valid breakout of the double bottom requires three consecutive daily closes above the 157.65 neckline. If confirmed (and after a healthy pullback to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), we look for swing longs targeting the previous high near 159.50, with the ultimate measured move projection pointing all the way up to 163.20. Are you trading the breakout or fading the double top at 158.00? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
The Nasdaq-100 has Developed a Bullish Cup With Handle PatternI recently shared a fractal on the SPX that seems to be continuing to play out targeting the 2.618- 3.168 Fibonacci extension here: So far we have moved above the 2.618 and seem to be holding trend for the last move up to the 3.168. I suspect we will see this sort of movement as the Balance Sheet starts to climb again. Naturally if the SPX is running up we should probably expect the Nasdaq-100 to move up with it and it just so happens that the Nasdaq-100 has developed what seems to resemble a Cup with Handle pattern and price is currently sitting at the 0.618 retrace from local low to high. At this 61.8% retrace, the RSI has Bullishly Diverged a few times and it seems as if there may be a bit of accumulation here. If the NDX tracks with the SPX fractal we should soon see the NDX go for the 3.168 before potentially coming back down quite hard once inflation likely kicks back in sparked by what will probably be a significant rise above $100 in oil prices. Until the, I think we will remain quite Bullish and enter the finale phases of a blowoff top before the fed is then forced to ring everything back down to quell inflationary pressures. In looking to play this SPX fractal as a correlation trade on the NDX, I think this Cup with handle setup could turn out to be a great midterm entry and as a side I will also be getting Bullish on Bitcoin here: It would probably also be strategic to start a Bullish Position on US Oil ahead of time before the inflationary pressure really starts to build. On the Monthly chart oil confirmed a 3 line strike at the 0.618 retrace and bullishly diverged on the RSI and Flipped Positive on the MACD. If we are to get a reciprocal harmonic AB=CD move from this we would see oil rise to $178.46 a barrel aligning with the 1.618 PCZ as seen on this chart:
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by RizeSenpai
War, Oil & Inflation: The Macro Forces Driving XAUUSDIn financial markets, war-related news is often described as an “exogenous shock.” These unexpected events can rapidly alter global capital flows and trigger significant changes in asset prices. The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran is a clear example of a geopolitical shock capable of significantly influencing XAUUSD (gold versus the U.S. dollar). To understand its potential long-term impact, we need to examine several key macroeconomic mechanisms. 1️⃣ The Safe-Haven Mechanism When geopolitical risk rises, the primary objective of institutional capital shifts from seeking returns to protecting capital. Historically, gold has been the ultimate safe-haven asset, as it does not depend on the stability of any government or financial institution. When tensions escalate in the Middle East: • Investors reduce exposure to risk assets such as equities and emerging markets • Capital flows toward defensive assets such as gold and U.S. Treasury bonds For XAUUSD, this shift in capital flows often generates liquidity inflows that push gold prices higher. In the early stages of a crisis, both gold and the U.S. dollar can rise simultaneously, as investors seek safety and liquidity. Over the long term, increased geopolitical uncertainty often leads global funds to increase their strategic allocation to gold, supporting a structural bullish trend. 2️⃣ Oil, Energy, and Inflation The Middle East conflict also has direct implications for the global energy market. One of the most critical points is the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 million barrels of oil pass each day. If this route is disrupted: Oil prices rise → production costs increase → global inflation rises. Inflation has historically been one of the strongest macro drivers of gold. When inflation increases: • The real value of fiat currencies declines • Investors seek to protect purchasing power through gold exposure This creates structural support for XAUUSD, especially if inflation remains above central bank targets. 3️⃣ The Risk of Stagflation A prolonged conflict can generate a stagflationary environment, characterized by: • Weak economic growth • High inflation This situation creates a dilemma for central banks such as the Federal Reserve (Fed). If the Fed raises interest rates aggressively to control inflation: • The economy could slow sharply. If it cuts rates to stimulate growth: • Inflation could accelerate further. Historically, gold performs strongly during stagflation, as investors seek assets that preserve value. For XAUUSD, this environment can translate into prolonged bullish cycles. 4️⃣ Structural Demand for Gold Another important factor is the accumulation of gold by central banks. In recent years, several countries have increased their gold reserves to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar-based financial system. Geopolitical tensions tend to accelerate this trend. Many countries are seeking to: • Increase physical gold reserves • Develop alternative international payment systems This phenomenon creates sustained structural demand for gold. 5️⃣ Long-Term Outlook for XAUUSD From a macro perspective, the combination of: • Geopolitical tensions • Energy-driven inflation • Stagflation risk • Central bank gold purchases creates a structural bullish foundation for gold in the long term. Of course, gold prices do not move in a straight line. Deep corrections can occur, especially when the U.S. dollar temporarily strengthens. However, during periods when: • Global uncertainty rises • Real yields decline • Central banks accumulate gold XAUUSD often enters long-term expansion phases. 💡 Reflection for Traders and Investors If geopolitical tensions continue and inflation remains elevated: Would you prefer to trade XAUUSD in the short term, or accumulate gold during market corrections? Understanding the macro forces behind gold allows traders and investors to see XAUUSD not only as a trading instrument, but also as a reflection of global economic stability.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Ingridtrader94
9
War, Oil Shock & Inflation: XAUUSD Bull CaseIn the financial world, war-related news is often referred to as an “Exogenous Shock.” To understand how the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict may influence XAUUSD (Gold vs USD) in the long term, we need to examine several structural mechanisms that drive gold prices. 1. The Safe-Haven Mechanism and Global Capital Flows When geopolitical conflicts escalate, the primary objective of institutional capital shifts from profit maximization to capital preservation. Gold has historically been the ultimate safe-haven asset because it carries no counterparty risk. Unlike fiat currencies, bonds, or equities, gold does not depend on the stability of a government or a financial institution. When missiles fly across the Middle East and geopolitical risk rises: - Investors reduce exposure to risk assets (stocks, emerging markets). - Capital rotates into defensive assets, primarily gold and U.S. Treasuries. For XAUUSD, this dynamic often produces sudden liquidity inflows, pushing the price higher. However, the relationship with the USD adds complexity. In early stages of a crisis, both gold and the USD may rise simultaneously, as investors seek liquidity and safety. Long-term implication for XAUUSD: As geopolitical instability persists, global portfolios gradually increase strategic allocations to gold, supporting a long-term bullish bias. 2. Energy Markets and the Inflation Transmission Channel The Middle East conflict directly affects global energy markets, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which transports more than 20 million barrels of oil per day. If this chokepoint is disrupted: Oil prices rise → Production costs increase → Global inflation pressures rise. Inflation is historically one of the strongest macro drivers for gold. When inflation accelerates: - The real value of fiat currencies declines. - Investors hedge purchasing power with gold exposure. For XAUUSD, persistent energy-driven inflation tends to create long-term structural support, especially if inflation remains above central bank targets. 3. Monetary Policy Constraints and the Risk of Stagflation The biggest macroeconomic risk created by war-driven inflation is stagflation, a combination of: - Slow economic growth - High inflation This scenario creates a difficult dilemma for central banks such as the Federal Reserve. If the Fed raises interest rates aggressively: - The economy may slow sharply. - Financial markets could face recessionary pressure. If the Fed cuts rates to support growth: - Inflation could accelerate further. Historically, gold performs strongly during stagflationary environments, because investors lose confidence in both economic growth and monetary stability. For XAUUSD, this environment tends to support multi-year upward cycles. 4. Structural Demand: Central Banks and De-Dollarization Another long-term factor supporting gold is central bank accumulation. In recent years, many countries have increased their gold reserves to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar–based financial system. Geopolitical conflicts accelerate this trend. Countries facing sanctions or financial pressure often increase: - Physical gold reserves - Alternative settlement systems This creates structural demand for gold, which supports the long-term bullish outlook for XAUUSD. 5. Long-Term Outlook for XAUUSD From a macro perspective, the combination of: - Geopolitical instability - Energy-driven inflation - Stagflation risk - Central bank gold accumulation creates a structural bullish foundation for gold in the long run. This does not mean gold will move in a straight line. Markets often experience deep corrections and liquidity pullbacks, especially when the USD strengthens temporarily. However, in periods where: - Global uncertainty rises - Real yields decline - Central banks accumulate gold XAUUSD historically enters long-term expansion phases. I hope this article helps you gain deeper insight into the connection between current events and the movement of the global economy. Would you like me to create a sample “asset accumulation plan” for an individual investor during this period of war?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Bella_Noize
14
$EUIRYY - Europe CPI (February/2026) ECONOMICS:EUIRYY February/2026 source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation in the Euro Area rose to 1.9% in February 2026, up from January’s 16-month low of 1.7% and above market expectations of 1.7%, according to a preliminary estimate. Price pressures strengthened notably in services, where inflation accelerated to 3.4% from 3.2%, while non-energy industrial goods inflation picked up to 0.7% from 0.4%. Energy prices continued to decline, but at a slower pace, falling 3.2% compared with a 4.0% drop in January. Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation held steady at 2.6%. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 2.4%, rebounding from January’s more than four-year low of 2.2%. Among the bloc’s largest economies, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) accelerated in France (1.1% vs. 0.4%), Spain (2.5% vs. 2.4%) and Italy (1.6% vs. 1.0%), while easing slightly in Germany (2.0% vs. 2.1%).
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Does this RSI signature say US inflation is about to return?Simple chart. As you can see, US Inflation has often formed a bullish convergence pattern on it's derived RSI that has been a good predictor of several inflation bottoms. We have one right now as you can see. The problem is, that usually, inflation prints this signature when inflation is significantly below targets. This time, inflation is printing ABOVE targets. This means if inflation bounces here we can expect another burst of significantly above-target inflation. Which, logically, means we should not expect rate cuts any time soon. Either that, or we end up with a weak FED that won't do a U-turn on their rate cut plans, and they cut rates INTO an inflation bounce. Which is obviously going to be a disaster. Watch this chart carefully over the next few months going into Q4.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by RogueEconomics
1
Soybean Oil Has Moved As Much Since the Beginning of 2026My Long-Term Trajectory for Commodities. It all started years ago when I began investing in gold. Back then, I believed that global money printing was unsustainable and that precious metals were effective inflation-hedge assets. Inflation, in my view, would inevitably escalate over time. Then came 2022, when US CPI hit a high of 9%. That was when gold began drawing stronger attention from central banks and investors. Another belief of mine is that gold is the leader of commodities. As long as gold remains elevated, it suggests that the fight against inflation is far from over. Looking at the current situation, QE and money printing are unlikely to ease. Therefore, the risk of higher inflation is still in play, reinforcing the case for commodities as an inflation hedge. The rest of the commodities should move according to their own timing and underlying catalysts. Commodity ratios have been helpful for me in rotating — cashing out of one and moving into another. From gold/silver spread to gold/platinum to gold/copper to gold/oil to gold/uranium... While many are focusing on crude oil due to tensions in the Middle East, I’ve noticed that among the more popular oil markets, soybean oil has been moving much higher than the others. Could soybean oil be the next to move along with crude oil after precious metals? Soybean Oil Ticker: ZL Minimum fluctuation: 1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by konhow
S&P 500: Roaring Twenties 2.0 Bullish Harmonic FractalNew Updated Commentary 2/20/2026: Since the original post the S&P 500 has rallied from $4,000 to just above the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension to $7,000. Originally I noted that the 2.618 could act as potential resistance especially if the fed tightened at these levels but it would seem that as we've hit these all time highs, the fed has chosen to loosen and the odds of the balance sheet rising have gone up as Japanese inflation has gone back below the 2% target. As a result we will likely see the fed be more willing to inflate the balance sheet further and keep rates lower or paused which will lead to a temporary loosening in the carry trade and therefore an opening in credit spreads which should allow institutions the margin needed to push the S&P 500 to the upper parts of this resistance zone mainly targeting the 3.168-4.00 extensions in one last blow-off top sort of move to complete the AB=CD harmonic and to even further align with the 1920s-1930s great recession fractal. I think that during this time we will see the fed balance sheet rise, inflation to pick back up and for softs like: wheat, soybeans, and assets like oil and natural gas to rise. Once Oil rises enough it will start sparking up the CPI. This should be good for stocks at first but as inflation begins to increase and oil starts trading well into the 100s of dollars I would then start to worry and by that time, hopefully the SPX will be our next extension targets and confirming bearishness by breaking below our CD leg trendline because this is the point that I would want to get out and consider shorts as we'd likely see the central banks around the world be forced to raise rates significantly and reduce their balance sheets once more to combat inflation which will tighten spreads and likely revive the problem of the Japanese Carry Trade. So while I see the market as still bullish I do think this bullishness is tentative and is setting up for one more rapid rise followed by an even greater decline which should be foreshadowed by a rise in CPI sparked by rising oil, rising softs, rising volatility, and a break of our CD wave trendline at one of our Fibonacci extensions above. My original commentary posted on Apr 15, 2023: In the lead up to the 1920s, the US Federal Reserve significantly increased its balance sheet by almost nine times, starting from 700 Million Dollars in December 1916 to 6.6 Billion Dollars by January 1920. This move was presumably to fund the US's entry into the First World War, which led to an increased demand for US government debt globally and loose lending conditions domestically, and low rates thereby encouraging a round of inflation in the US. However, after the war ended, the Fed stopped increasing the balance sheet, and between 1920 and 1922, they began to reduce it from the already elevated $6.6 billion to $4.8 billion, almost a 30% cut in just two years. This action successfully controlled inflation but did not eliminate it completely, yet the dollar gained significant buying power, resulting in a somewhat disinflationary period. As a response to this, the Fed maintained the balance sheet within a tight range around $4.8 billion for a decade, neither raising nor lowering it much but the federal reserve did continue to significantly lower the interest rates; During this time, equities rallied. While the 1920s were a period of economic growth and prosperity, there were warning signs of overheating towards the end of the decade. Investors were becoming overly speculative, leading to a surge in stock and real estate prices, while lending standards declined and consumer spending continued to rise rapidly. To counteract these inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve implemented policies to tighten credit conditions; They doubled interest rates and also raised reserve requirements for banks, which reduced the amount of money available for lending. In essence this would kickstart The Great Depression which could have instead been a Simple Recession if only the fed had acted sooner as it wasn't their intention to crush the market but rather they just wanted to cool the market down a bit to contain inflation. Years deep into the Great depression, the Federal Reserve realized they had gone too far. So, to fix this, they would begin to raise the balance sheet again while also cutting rates drastically in an effort to relieve pressure from the economy and promote new opportunities for economic growth, which then led to a new expansionary cycle. With that all being said, it would appear that the Fed is doing now what it was doing back then. Over the last decade, they raised the balance sheet by 900% and lowered interest rates by over 95%. Only over the last year, they have begun to reduce the balance sheet by about 10% while raising rates by over 1500%. If we are to go off of the Harmonic Fractals on the chart, then we are likely nearing a point in time where the Fed will begin to loosen rate policy and bring the balance sheet back to all-time highs. This would align with the S&P reaching a 2.618 - 4.00 Retraces as the Fed attempts to keep policy as loose as possible in the hopes that inflation won't come back to bite them. But once we reach harmonic targets, we will likely see inflation return in a great way, which would then force the Fed to induce another Great Depression in the next several years rather they want to or not. Technical Argument: ABCD BAMM, after breaking a long accumulation range and entering a long term expansionary cycle, we are now in the later phases of said cycle while showing heavy amounts of MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence and harmonically have room to go up significantly higher before it ultimately reaches D and comes to an end.
TVC:SPXLong
by RizeSenpai
$JPIRYY - Japan CPI (January/2026)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 1.5% January/2026 -0.6% source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan’s annual inflation eased to 1.5% in January 2026 from 2.1% in the prior month, the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a 15-month low (3.9% vs 5.1% in December), driven by the slowest rise in rice prices in 18 months. Price growth also eased for transport (0.8% vs 1.9%), healthcare (0.4% vs 0.7%), household items (0.8% vs 1.6%), recreation (2.1% vs 2.3%), and miscellaneous goods (0.6% vs 0.8%). Energy costs stayed negative, with electricity (-1.7% vs -2.3%) and gas (-2.0% vs -2.1%) falling for the second straight month, reflecting subsidy effects. At the same time, education costs declined further (-5.6% vs -5.6%). In contrast, inflation held steady for housing (at 1.0%) while accelerating for clothing (2.4% vs 2.0%) and communications (6.7% vs 6.2% ). Core inflation slipped to 2.0% from 2.4%, the lowest since January 2024, within the central bank’s 2% target. Monthly, CPI fell 0.2%, following a 0.1% drop in December.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY - U.K CPI (January/2026)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 3% January/2026 0.4% source: Office for National Statistics - UK consumer price inflation eased to 3.0% in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December and in line with market expectations. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since March 2025, primarily driven by softer increases in transport and food prices. Transport costs rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slowing from 4.0% in December, as fuel prices fell and air fare inflation moderated. Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 3.6%, down from 4.5% the previous month. Inflation also eased in housing and utilities (4.5% vs. 4.9%) and recreation and culture (2.6% vs. 2.7%). However, price growth in restaurants and hotels accelerated to 4.1%, up from 3.8%. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile components such as food and energy, declined to 3.1% in January, its lowest level since August 2021, suggesting underlying price pressures are gradually moderating. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.5%, reversing a 0.4% increase recorded in December. source: Office for National Statistics
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USIRYY - U.S CPI (January/2026)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.4% January/2026 -0.3% source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US likely slowed to 2.5% in January, marking its lowest level since May, largely reflecting base effects. On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, matching December’s increase. Meanwhile, annual core inflation is projected to ease to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021. On a monthly basis, core CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3%, slightly above December’s 0.2% rise.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Accelerating Fiat Debasement: The Inevitable Path AheadThroughout history, whenever a new power rises to challenge global hegemony, incumbent nations shift toward protectionism. They raise tariff barriers to shield their internal economies from competition and often resort to conflict—either directly or via proxies—to disrupt their rivals. You can find detailed studies of these cycles in Ray Dalio’s work or in Immanuel Wallerstein’s world-systems theory, which traces the hegemonies of Italy, Holland, Britain, and the USA. China is now poised to either replace the USA or establish itself as a peer global hegemon. The USA has no choice but to prepare its economy for this new reality. They must create an environment to rebuild local production, much of which has been offshored to Asia since the 1980s. It does not matter who the president is—Trump or anyone else—this structural shift is inevitable. While Trump is executing this strategy aggressively, those still thinking within the old "globalization framework" may view his actions as chaotic. However, the problem lies not with Trump, but with observers who fail to grasp the current moment in the global economic cycle. Strategic Imperatives for the USA Rebuild Domestic Production via Tariffs. This is essential, but it carries risks. If the USA isolates its economy while the rest of the world continues to trade freely with China, China’s economy will continue to expand. This is unacceptable for the USA; they must take steps to prevent this divergence. Disrupt Global Trade. To maintain relative power, the USA needs to hinder competitors. Europe is a major consumer of Chinese goods. How can the USA reduce Europe's trade with China? Europe is heavily dependent on energy from the USA and the Middle East. Consequently, the USA would benefit significantly if a disruption in the Middle East halted energy supplies from that region, forcing Europe into closer alignment with US energy exports. Debt Burden Relief. From a monetary perspective, clearing the debt overhang is an absolute must to create an environment for future growth. You cannot save and invest if debt repayment consumes a massive portion of your income. The Debt Trap: Three Options There are only three ways to resolve the current sovereign debt issue: Default on the debt. This is catastrophic. One entity's debt is another's collateral. A hard default would lead to total financial chaos and potential revolution. Austerity (Status Quo). Continue doing what has been done since 2000. This is not a solution—interest payments will eventually consume all GDP growth, stifling investment. Debase the Currency. Significantly debase the currency via high inflation to make old nominal debt a small fraction of GDP in new, inflated money. This is the only viable way out. Looking at the Gold chart, debasement started in earnest around 2000. Consider elite sports contracts: decades ago, top players earned $10M; today, contracts exceed $700M. Yet, even this pace is insufficient given the US debt interest bill due in 2026. The speed of USD debasement must be increased significantly! The question is: how to achieve this without sparking riots? The Perfect Scenario: An Oil Supply Shock An oil supply shock—such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 30% of traded energy—is the perfect scenario for the USA. It resolves multiple strategic issues simultaneously: It guarantees massive inflation, accelerating currency debasement to wipe out real debt. It reduces the purchasing power of the European population, hurting China’s export markets. It cements Europe's full dependency on US energy supplies, benefiting the US energy sector (a key part of the elite supporting Trump). China’s economy would starve from energy under-supply, slowing its growth trajectory. There are so many benefits for the USA in an oil supply shock that I do not see any other outcome from the situation around Iran other than a long-lasting conflict, the main goal of which is simply the disruption of global energy supply. Technical Outlook Now, back to the charts. The setup aligns perfectly with the fundamental thesis. Crude Oil is completing a corrective Wave 2 and is ready to start Wave 3 with shockingly high targets above $500 . If you asked people in 1974, when the price was under $4, that in just 5 years the price would be almost $40, they would have called you crazy. But history rhymes. Gold : The target for Wave 3 is around $27,000 . There is a long way to go up. Silver : To complete the massive cup and handle pattern, price should head towards ~$600 .
TVC:UKOILLong
by Kupitman
Market mini flash crash: CPI leaked?? The drop in gold and silver over the past few hours is sparking speculation that the CPI report may have leaked early. Markets are expecting January CPI to show a 0.3% increase for both headline and core. Metals have seen heavy outflows, with gold dipping to $4,900 and silver pulling back to $76. That puts them down roughly 2.8% and 10% on the session, respectively. Whatever is driving the move, it is adding to the sense that nothing is safe right now. The weakness is not limited to metals. WTI crude is also sliding back below $63, down about 2.6% on the session. Major US indices are in the red, and Bitcoin has fallen back below 66,000.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull Markets
BTC Inflation Adjusted Since InceptionAdjusted for inflation, Bitcoin’s purchasing power since inception is about $21,000. Just a few days ago, it briefly fell to around $18,000. NVDA is worth twice as much as BTC. Once again proving BTC is not an Anti- Gov global currency. Gold is. It only takes 14 oz of gold to own a BTC. As I wrote back in April 2025 warning people to GTFO of BTC. And I quote. " As BTC has matured, it has revealed its limits relative to SPX. Any time the price rises above 15, a correction follows. While it has not yet cracked I find myself violating my own rules again and compelled to share this chart with you BEFORE the crack. Markets are volatile and I am simply trying to keep people from getting hurt. Do not make the mistake of thinking BTC is a safe asset. Bulls best to take profits. " Since then I posted countless of charts warning people to GTFO & STFO! THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RealMacro